Central Perk

joi, 30 iulie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Which Will It Be: United States of Europe OR United States of Germany?
GDP Bounce: Disappointing Mixed Bag of Expectations and Revisions; Where to From Here?
Police State "Ministry of Truth" Hits Spain; Man Fined for Calling Police "Slackers" on Facebook

Which Will It Be: United States of Europe OR United States of Germany?

Posted: 30 Jul 2015 02:26 PM PDT

Socialists Seek to Outvote Germany

In the wake of the near-Grexit, France and Italy seek more powers for the European Commission (EC).

And both countries want another parliament with more power. Their unstated goal is to create a United States of Europe where socialists would outvote the Germans.

Germany Seeks to Prevent Being Outvoted

German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble has a completely different idea: Schäuble Outlines Plan to Limit European Commission Powers.

German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble is proposing to strip the European Commission of some of its core oversight powers in an effort to avoid politicising EU decision-making at a time when the executive body has touted its new partisan role in Europe.

The European Commission has quasi-judicial authority over some of the most sensitive Europe-wide decision making, particularly in the area of merger approvals and antitrust monitoring, powers that could be moved to independent bodies under Mr Schäuble's plan.

Berlin has also long called for the eurozone's budget rules to be triggered automatically when a country breaches EU debt and deficit ceilings, and has complained bitterly that France has been given repeated waivers by the commission despite violating those limits for years — waivers some have viewed as politically motivated.

François Hollande, the French president, pressed for the eurozone overhaul almost immediately after the Greek deal was reached and, in a recent interview in the Financial Times, Italian finance minister Pier Carlo Padoan called for a rapid move to a full political union.

However, the new ideas being advanced have highlighted the differences between eurozone countries on the way forward, particularly between the French and Italian camp and Berlin.

Both Paris and Rome are emphasising a pooling of resources, either in the form of a eurozone budget or a common EU unemployment scheme, while Berlin is focusing on giving the eurozone's rules more bite and less interference from political forces.

Battle Line

The battle lines are clear: Stricter Rules and Less EC vs. Fewer Rules and More Politics.

Let's not kid ourselves here. This is not an "effort to avoid politicising EU decision-making". Schäuble is scared to death about what the socialists have in mind.

If there is a new parliament, France, Spain, Italy, and Portugal will all seek to "pool resources", the same general idea as "transfer German savings for politicians to spend elsewhere".

Instead, Schäuble seeks "independent" bodies. Let's translate that as well. "Independent" really means "appointed by and to the liking of Germany".

Because politics can change, Schäuble also seeks a fallback mechanism: "budget rules to be triggered automatically".

Of course, France, Italy, Spain, etc., want no part of automated budget rules; they want to vote on rules because they know they can collectively outvote Germany any time they want. Here are the French and Italian proposals:

United States of Europe Proposals

France - July 20: Hollande Pleads for Creation of Eurozone Government; United States of Europe?
Italy - July 28: Italy's Finance Minister Joins "United States of Europe" Parade; Germany's "5 Wise Men" Argue for Grexit

Which Will It Be?

Let me summarize the debate with a question: Which will it be:

United States of Europe
United States of Germany

Please think before you vote. The answer could be neither. I purposely left out a key choice: The eurozone may still break apart.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

GDP Bounce: Disappointing Mixed Bag of Expectations and Revisions; Where to From Here?

Posted: 30 Jul 2015 11:54 AM PDT

This morning, the BEA reported Second Quarter GDP was 2.3%.

2.3% was at the low end of the Consensus Range of 1.9% to 3.5%. On the plus side, first quarter was revised way higher.

Revisions

First quarter 2015 revised up from -0.2% to +0.6%
2013 GDP revised lower from 2.2% to 1.5%
2012 GDP revised lower from 2.3% to 2.2%

Evolution of First Quarter 2015 GDP

+0.2% Initial
-0.7% Revised
-0.2% Revised
+0.6% Revised

GDP is the most lagging of all indicators. By the time all the revisions are in (years later), no one even cares.

I suspect after the "final" revision, first quarter 2015 GDP will be back in the negative column, with all of 2015 revised lower as well.

Don't hold your breath waiting.

Weak First Half

Meanwhile, the first half of the year looks pretty weak.

Last year, a first quarter GDP of -0.9% was followed by a huge second quarter surge to +4.6%, sustained with a strong third quarter +4.3%.

In comparison, this bounce was feeble.

Where to From Here?

If retail sales do not pick up, and especially if auto sales slide as I suspect they will, third quarter will shock the economists who believe this economy is strong and getting stronger.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Police State "Ministry of Truth" Hits Spain; Man Fined for Calling Police "Slackers" on Facebook

Posted: 30 Jul 2015 02:03 AM PDT

On July 1, the Spanish Government went to "Full Police State", with enactment of law forbidding dissent and unauthorized photos of law enforcement.

Spain's officially a police state now. On July 1st, its much-protested "gag" law went into effect, instantly making criminals of those protesting the new law. Among the many new repressive stipulations is a €30,000-€600,000 fine for "unauthorized protests," which can be combined for maximum effect with a €600-€300,000 fine for "disrupting public events."

This horrible set of statutes has arisen from Spain's position as a flashpoint for anti-austerity protests, the European precursor to the Occupy Wall Street movement. Fines, fines and more fines await anyone who refuses to treat authority with the respect it's forcibly requiring citizens to show it.

The law also extends its anti-protest punishments to social media, where users can face similar fines for doing nothing more than encouraging or organizing a protest. Failing to present ID when commanded is another fine. And then there's this:

Showing a "lack of respect" to those in uniform or failing to assist security forces in the prevention of public disturbances could result in an individual fine of between €600 and €30,000.

A clause in the wide-ranging legislation that critics have dubbed the "gag law" provides for fines of up to 30,000 euros ($33,000) for "unauthorized use" of images of working police that could identify them, endanger their security or hinder them from doing their jobs.

Man Fined for Calling Police "Slackers"

We now have our first test case of this inane law.

The Independent reports Spanish man fined up to €600 under new gag laws for calling police 'slackers' in Facebook post.

A young man in Spain has been fined for calling the police lazy in a Facebook post – becoming the first citizen to fall foul of a series of controversial new "gag" laws.

The 27-year-old man, identified only as Eduardo D in national media reports, described the local police force as a "class of slackers" in a series of online posts which he described as humorous.

According to the Spanish daily El Pais, Eduardo made three comments on Facebook criticising the money spent on police facilities in his town of Güímar, Tenerife.

He also accused local authorities of misappropriating a public building, and in a third post suggested local police were so lazy they might as well have "a hammock and a swimming pool" at each station.

Eduardo made the comments on 22 July, according to the Spanish edition of The Local, and that afternoon he received a visit from police accusing him of "making comments on social media that showed a lack of respect and consideration for Güímar's local police".

He now faces a fine of between €100 and €600, and told El Pais he had appointed a lawyer to fight the "madness" of the penalisation process.

One of the first uses of the nationwide so-called "gag laws", Eduardo's case comes amid a backdrop of a range of bizarre new laws across Spanish municipalities following the sweeping success of left-wing groups at elections two months ago.

They included the introduction of a compulsory siesta in the town of Ador near Valencia, attempts to limit tourists only to the most popular destinations in Barcelona, and the setting-up of a so-called "Ministry of Truth" in Madrid.

Is the US next?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Three things that make CEOs stupid

Three things that make CEOs stupid

I sat through an endless presentation by the CEO of a fast-growing company. He was doing fine for half an hour, but then, when his time was up, he chose to spend 45 minutes more on his final slide, haranguing and invecting, jumping from topic to topic and basically bringing the entire group to its knees in frustration.

Power, of course, is the first problem. When things are going fairly well, the CEO has a ton of power, and often, that power makes things appear to work, even when they're not the right thing to do for the long-term. As a result, there's no market that is correcting the bad decisions, at least not right now.

Exposure is the second problem. Once a company gets big enough, the CEO spends his time with investors and senior executives, not with people who actually invent or deliver products and services, and not with customers. Another form of not getting the right feedback, because the people being pleased aren't the right ones.

The truth is the final and most endemic problem. Employees incorrectly (in many cases) believe that the boss doesn't want to hear from them, doesn't want constructive feedback. Everyone else has a boss, and built into the nature of boss-ness is the idea that someone is going to tell you what's not working. But we fall into the trap of believing that just because the CEO isn't assigned a boss, he doesn't need or want one.

A stupid CEO can coast for a long time if the systems are good. But a stupid CEO is always wasting opportunities, because being smarter usually leads to doing better. Plus, they're a lot more fun to work for.

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miercuri, 29 iulie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

"Selfie" Fashion Trends: Cheap Dresses and "Rentabag"; Mish Handbag Tips

Posted: 29 Jul 2015 04:56 PM PDT

Impact of the "Selfie"

Are you into Facebook, Instagrams, and "Selfies" (taking lots of pictures of yourself and sharing them instantly)?

I'm not but, but in my travels I see lots of it. The popularity of sending "selfies" has even influenced retail sales and women's fashion. After all, one cannot be seen in the same outfit too often!

Here's an amusing video that discusses the impact of the "selfie".

In the above video, FT's Andrea Felsted visits online fashion retailer Asos to see how it is adapting its business model in the era of the selfie.

Link if video does not play: How the Selfie Is Shaking Up Retail.

Cheap Dresses and Rentabag

Allegedly it's a faux pas to be seen too often with the same bag. So enter the "rentabag". I had to look this up. There's a huge selection of choices.

Bagborroworsteal: Rent Luxury Bags Online - Huge Selection of Designer Bags‎ - Get A New Bag Every Month
Supursestyle: Rent designer handbags at affordable prices
Bagdujour: Handbags for rent - Wear a Beautiful Designer Bag Today Authentic, Affordable & Convenient
Renttherunaway: Fashion accessories, jewelry, handbags, and wraps for women
Armgen: The Netflix of handbags. We rent trendy designer handbags at a fraction of the cost!
Rentmeahandbag: Rene Caovilla Shoes Sandals
Lovemeandleaveme: Buy designer bags outright, hire bags or use payment plan options
Bagtropolis: Buy, layaway and rent borrow luxury pre-owned authentic designer handbags, bags, purses, pocketbooks at affordable prices, including Balenciaga, Celine
Luxurylana: Rent from your favorite designer handbag online
Monluxe: MonLuxe the european bag and jewelry rental company. Delivery in 24 hours in France, Benelux, Germany Italy, Spain, Portugal

Mercy!

There's even a site promoting Make Extra Money Renting Handbags and Purses.

Really Expensive Bags

$100,000 for a bag? That is the full price though, not a rental. Phew!

For comparison purposes, who wouldn't want this "beautiful" Valentino Leopard Calf Hair Rockstud Trapeze Bag, bargain-basement priced at $3,995?

How about this trendy Fendi Baguette Bag Bugs Shoulder Bag "beauty" for a mere $2,610?

$100,000 Bags Totally Worth It?

Those prices seem shocking, but the PurseBlog gives 8 Reasons Spending $1,000 or More on a Bag is Totally Worth It.

Real Reason for $100,000 Bags

For those looking for the real reason behind $100,000 handbags that sometimes look rather ordinary and sometimes purposely gaudy, blame the Fed and central banks in general.

The income inequality the Fed and politicians rail against comes directly from middle class killing policies of the Fed and government officials.

What Your Money Rents

Who in their right mind wants to pay $300 a month to rent this ordinary brown bag?

For a "mere" $45 a month you can rent these sunglasses.

Designer Bags

BagDuJour offers the following designers for rent.

Alexander McQueen
Anna Sui
Anthony Luciano
Anya Hindmarch
Burberry
Charlotte Olympia
Chloe
Diane von Furstenberg
Dolce & Gabbana
Edie Parker
Emilio Pucci
Ermanno Scervino
Fendi
Givenchy
Gucci
Isabel Marant
Jimmy Choo
Kate Spade
Kotur
Louis Vuitton
Marni
Mary Katrantzou
Michael Kors
Miu Miu
Piero Guidi
Pierre Hardy
Prada
Proenza Schouler
Roberto Cavalli
Saint Laurent
Stella McCartney
Tiffany
Valentino
Versace
Versus Versace
Victoria Beckham

With so many "designers": Would anyone really know if you had a designer bag or something similar?

One final question: Is it really millennials renting this stuff for selfie instagrams, or do the bulk of these rentals go to people pretending to be youthful and rich?

Designer Bags For Cheap

I did some searching and found some genuine leather bags that look nice (at least to me). Here's a couple from DesignerHandbagRescue.

That's a Coach Bag (I have no idea how popular that brand is or isn't) but I like the clean looks of it. It retails for $235, but went for $89.95 used but in near-perfect condition.

Sorry ladies, sold out.

Here's a Michael Kors Rhea Medium Zip Shoulder Bag for just under my top-end splurge limit. It retails for $268 but you can still get it for $124.95.

With that, my fashion preferences are now exposed and subject to immense criticism from all my female readers (as well as any males who happen to like purses).

By the way, I get nothing for promoting any company mentioned in this article. I Just decided to see what I could get and stumbled on that site.

I suspect there are numerous nice-looking purses under $50, and even $300+ designer purses for close to or under $100.

Mish Practical Tips

Buy a bag, don't spend more than $50, be creative, and hardly anyone will know it's not a designer bag.
If you really want to splurge, spend $125 or less for designer bags.

Finally, if you select option number 1 and someone asks about your bag, just tell them it's a soon-to-be-very-popular, genuine Mishabag^TM.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Fed Sheds No Light, Plays Charades with Media; Tiptoe Balancing Act

Posted: 29 Jul 2015 11:47 AM PDT

Fed Says Little, Sheds No Light

If the Fed had a clue as to what it will do in September, it likely would have said so. Instead, it reiterated the same hash we have been hearing for years.

Here is the complete text of today's FOMC Press Release.

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that economic activity has been expanding moderately in recent months. Growth in household spending has been moderate and the housing sector has shown additional improvement; however, business fixed investment and net exports stayed soft. The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year. Inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey‑based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of earlier declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams.

Charades

I suspect the Fed is concerned about retail sales, sentiment, housing, China, Greece, oil, Canada, the US dollar, and a host of other things.

At this stage in the charade game, the Fed cannot possibly come out and say any of that. Nor can the Fed hint at a September hike, even though it wants to, because retail sales may continue to slump and auto sales could easily collapse.

The Fed expects "further improvements" in the labor market, but what if all these inane minimum wages hikes kill jobs.

High consumer sentiment has not led to higher retail sales as the Fed seems to believe it would (See Sentiment Measures vs. Retail Spending: Clueless Clues and Random Noise).

Tiptoe Balancing Act

To avoid saying anything that might be seriously wrong, the Fed says the risks are "nearly balanced" then disproves that with lovey-dovey hogwash about "keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run."

I just happen to have the right musical clip for the Fed's tiptoe charade game.

Link if video does not play: Tiny Tim Tiptoe Through Tulips

No doubt you can stand no more than 30 seconds of that, which is also about how long a knowledgeable reader can stand the Fed's charade game playing.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com