| Winter Scramble; Refugees Will Freeze to Death Warns Juncker; Tony Blair Apologizes for Creation of ISIS Posted: 26 Oct 2015 07:30 PM PDT Scramble is OnNovember is less than a week away and nighttime temperatures are dropping rapidly. What is Europe supposed to do with hundreds of thousands of migrants in need of shelter? This is one of those things German chancellor Angela Merkel, Swedish prime minister Stefan Löfven, and EU head Jean-Claude Juncker should have thought about before welcoming economic migrants with open arms, essentially begging for this very crisis. Those bureaucrats don't admit their own foolish policies helped create this crisis. Instead, the EU Scrambles to Shelter Migrants as Winter Looms. Europe is scrambling for ideas on how to detain and process the hundreds of thousands of migrants winding through the continent, yet after months of effort officials are still struggling to make headway before the onset of winter.
Heads of government agreed to come up with 100,000 places in shelters along the so-called western Balkans route after European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker warned that refugee families could "perish miserably" during the journey from Greece through former Yugoslavia and into Austria and Germany without help.
At the moment, officials are suffering from a dearth of information on the ground as Greece and countries in former Yugoslavia — which often have strained diplomatic relations — either do not collect or fail to pass on information.
"I cannot tell you how many are on the move as we speak," said one EU official.
Berlin has heaped pressure on its neighbours to deal with incoming asylum seekers before they reach German borders, as chancellor Angela Merkel attempts to quell a domestic backlash — among both voters and her own party — against the influx of refugees.
Under the proposals agreed on Sunday, Greece will become a temporary de facto refugee camp for the rest of the EU, with 30,000 places set up by the end of the year — despite vociferous opposition from Greek officials in the past.
Domestic Backlash
The domestic backlash is of primarily of Merkel's making. But blame also goes to Jean-Claude Juncker, Swedish prime minister Stefan Löfven, and anyone else who thought welcoming millions of migrants with open arms and free money was a good idea.
This past weekend, Poland elected a eurosceptic government and domestic backlash contributed to the blowout.
For details, please see Warning Shot: Poland Elects Rightwing Eurosceptic, Anti-Immigration Government.
Refugees will Freeze to Death Warns Juncker
Without assigning any blame to himself for the predicament, Juncker warns Refugees Will Freeze to Death.
Migrants crossing the Balkans will begin freezing to death as winter approaches, the head of European Union has said, as leaders warned the continent was "falling apart" trying to deal with the biggest refugee crisis since the Second World War.
As leaders of eastern European countries turned on each other at a foul-tempered emergency summit in Brussels, they said the Schengen visa-free zone and even the European Union itself could be pulled apart as states threw up borders to halt the influx.
Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, said a solution was urgently needed or thousands of refugee families facing winter temperature on the hillsides and freezing river-banks of Eastern Europe, would die.
"Every day counts," he said. "Otherwise we will soon see families in cold rivers in the Balkans perish miserably."
Miro Cerar, the Slovenian prime minister, said the EU was days from collapse as his country buckled under an "unbearable" influx of migrants.
"If we do not deliver some immediate and concrete actions on the ground in the next few days and weeks I believe the EU and Europe as a whole will start falling apart," he said.
In the worst refugee crisis since the second world war, more than 670,000 people have crossed into Europe this year. Some 56,000 people landed on Greek islands in just six days last week, a record influx as those fleeing Syria race to avoid spending another winter in the refugee camps along the country's border.
But poorly dressed and under-fed, there are mounting fears they will fall victim to rougher seas and the Balkan winter that can reach minus 15C as they attempt to reach Germany and Sweden. Stupidity of the DayThe very best thing for the migrants and the EU would be if the civil war in Syria stopped. However, as the Telegraph reports " The US and Saudi Arabia dramatically responded to Russian air-strikes in support of the Assad regime by agreeing to boost their own military and diplomatic support for the Syrian rebels, threatening an ever worsening downward spiral." Hey, let's ensure the civil war continues and the migrant problem worsens. US policy has not changed under Obama. Here's the general idea: If it's good for war, it's good for the world. Tony Blair Admits US, UK Policy Created ISISWhen looking to place blame for this mess, don't just look at Europe. President Bush and president Obama have their hands in this mess. In a wishy-washy admission of guilt, former UK prime minister Tony Blair admitted that US and UK Mistakes Led to Formation of ISIS. Blair acknowledged that there are "elements of truth" in the view that the 2003 invasion of Iraq was the principal cause of the rise of ISIS.
"Of course, you can't say that those of us who removed Saddam in 2003 bear no responsibility for the situation in 2015," he said. Guilty as ChargedThat is as big of a " We f*d up!" admission from a high ranking bureaucrat as you will ever see. Don't expect the same admission from president Bush, even though Bush is the single person most responsible for that inane war and this mess. Don't expect any apologies from president Obama either for his role in the mess. While we're at it, don't expect any apologies from warmonger Hillary Clinton either. If I failed to offend you, then hopefully it's because you correctly understood from the beginning how stupid that rush to war really was. Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
| Sales, Earning Estimates Contract First Time Since 2009; US Back in Recession? Posted: 26 Oct 2015 12:59 PM PDT US Back in Recession?Large US corporations posted their first decline in both earnings and sales since the great recession. Are we back in recession? That depends on who you ask. Let's kick off the debate with the Wall Street Journal article U.S. Companies Warn of Slowing Economy. Quarterly profits and revenue at big American companies are poised to decline for the first time since the recession, as some industrial firms warn of a pullback in spending.
From railroads to manufacturers to energy producers, businesses say they are facing a protracted slowdown in production, sales and employment that will spill into next year. Some of them say they are already experiencing a downturn.
"The industrial environment's in a recession. I don't care what anybody says," Daniel Florness, chief financial officer of Fastenal Co. , told investors and analysts earlier this month. A third of the top 100 customers for Fastenal's nuts, bolts and other factory and construction supplies have cut their spending by more than 10% and nearly a fifth by more than 25%, Mr. Florness said.
Caterpillar Inc. last week reduced its profit forecast, citing weak demand for its heavy equipment, and 3M Co. , whose products range from kitchen sponges to adhesives used in automobiles, said it would lay off 1,500 employees, or 1.7% of its total, as sales growth sagged for a wide range of wares.
The weakness is overshadowing pockets of growth in sectors such as aerospace and technology.
Profit and revenue are falling in tandem for the first time in six years, with a third of S&P 500 companies reporting so far. Analysts expect the index's companies to book a 2.8% decline in per-share earnings from last year's third quarter, according to Thomson Reuters.
Sales are on pace to fall 4%—the third straight quarterly decline. The last time sales and profits fell in the same quarter was in the third period of 2009.
Wal-Mart recently warned its sales this year are likely to be flat, down from projection of as much as 2% growth, and cut its earnings forecast for next year as it raises wages. The retailer blamed the strong dollar for the weakening sales growth.
And truckload carriers have warned that they aren't witnessing the usual uptick in retailer demand as the holiday season approaches, thanks to stubbornly high inventories, said Alex Vecchio, a transportation analyst at Morgan Stanley. "Transportation companies are typically a leading indicator, and our data is not good," Mr. Vecchio said. Sales, Earning Estimates Contract First Time Since 2009 Small to Medium Businesses StrugglingThe above report ties in nicely with my Sunday morning post Gardner Business Index Shows Small to Medium Sized Businesses Struggling MostGardner Business Index by Company Size Gardner Metalworking vs. ISM Gardner Durable Goods vs. ISM For a description of Gardner Business Media, please see Alternative ISM for Metalworking, Plastics, Composites Suggests Economic Contraction. Even Large Corporations SufferingThe Gardner Business Index sank deeper into contraction, led by small to medium-sized companies. But as the Journal reports, only select companies are doing well, not all large corporations in general. Caterpillar turned in miserable earnings. One can brush that off, blaming the slowdown in China and the commodity producing countries. One can brush off WalMart as wage-related. But what is one to do with a slowdown in transportation companies? US Recession Still In Play My 2015 US recession call is still in play. Is it possible to have a sales' recession, an earnings' recession, a manufacturing recession, and a transportation recession, but no official recession? Given the lagging nature of recession calls, it may be a while before we find out. For an amusing perspective on inaccurate recession forecasts, please see Herman Stekler Award for Bold, Inaccurate Recession Forecasting: 2015 Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI; Mish 2016?Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
| Warning Shot: Poland Elects Rightwing Eurosceptic, Anti-Immigration Government Posted: 26 Oct 2015 10:10 AM PDT A direct consequence of rising anti-immigration sentiment, Poland Elects Rightwing Eurosceptic, Anti-Immigration Government by an outright, albeit slim majority according to exit polls. Final results are due tomorrow. Outright majority or not, this election will complicate matters for Brussels on immigration, clean energy, climate control, and relations with Russia. A spontaneous chorus of the national anthem rang out around the headquarters of Poland's eurosceptic ultraconservative opposition as it learnt of its victory in a watershed election.
Mistrustful of Brussels, suspicious of foreign capital and espousing a social agenda rooted in conservative Catholicism, the Law and Justice party (PiS) won back control of the EU's sixth-largest economy after eight years of centrist rule.
"We have begun a new time, a time of work," said Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the veteran PiS leader, addressing party officials who chanted his name in a rallying cry that will reverberate across the EU.
The return of Mr Kaczynski's party, which ran Poland between 2005 and 2007, poses a number of difficulties for Brussels, already struggling to handle nationalist governments in Hungary and Slovakia over how to tackle the continent's migrant crisis.
Mr Kaczynski, who has condemned Warsaw's decision to accept refugees and said that they could bring diseases to Europe, is an outspoken admirer of Viktor Orban, Hungary's antagonistic prime minister. He has a chequered history with German chancellor Angela Merkel, and is a fierce critic of Donald Tusk, European Council president and a former Polish prime minister.
"[PiS] wants Poland to be more sovereign in Europe, more independent in its politics, but also more effective, more successful" said Michał Szułdrzyński, political editor of Rzeczpospolita, a leading Polish daily. "PiS will like to appear more hawkish towards Brussels, and is keen on an early and spectacular victory, such as a strong No to a common EU climate policy, for example."
Official results are due on Tuesday. But exit polls forecast PiS will win 38 per cent of the vote, enough for a slim majority, which would be the first for any party in democratic Poland. It can also rely on a number of smaller rightwing parties to help it push through legislation, and possibly make mooted changes to the constitution. Andrzej Duda, Poland's president, was also a member of the party before his election in May.
Mr Tusk will have a tough task keeping Poland onside in debates over the migrant crisis, climate change and energy policy, while Warsaw's previously warm relations with Berlin and Paris are likely to experience a chill. While committed to remaining in the EU, PiS has said it wants to repatriate powers from Brussels.
A fierce critic of Moscow, he has said that in power his party would oppose any proposals for Poland to accept more refugees, which could derail EU plans for an expansion of its migrant-sharing scheme. Poland, a key eastern European swing state that has previously helped drag its neighbours into line during EU votes, finally agreed to accept 7,000 migrants this autumn after tense negotiations.
Poland's lurch to the right also poses significant problems for the EU's climate change policies.
The most immediate battle ground will relate to Warsaw's plans for its lossmaking coal mines, where powerful unions are traditional allies of PiS. Brussels says that the country can only pump government money into these as part of a closure programme.
If the new government uses subsidies to keep them open, it will face a tough battle with the European Commission, which would view such a policy as illegal state aid.
More broadly, Mr Kaczynski has also said he is against any new rules that would drastically curb carbon emissions, with the EU facing tough negotiations next year over how the member states will share the burden of slashing back their greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. Warning ShotThis is a clear warning shot to the nannycrats in Brussels regarding wide-ranging policies on immigration, energy, Russia, and even the euro itself. I suspect anti-immigration is what kicked PiS over the top to an outright majority. Regardless of the reasons, Polish voters have clearly had enough. More importantly, what happened in Poland can happen elsewhere. Will the nannycrats heed the warning? Of course not. Nannycrats cannot and will not listen to anyone who opposes their version of a United States of Europe ruled by nannycrats. Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
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