Central Perk

vineri, 29 ianuarie 2016

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Poll Shows Nearly 40% of Germans Want Merkel to Resign

Posted: 29 Jan 2016 03:54 PM PST

As proof of how badly German chancellor Angela Merkel has handled the refugee crisis, a new Poll Shows 40 Percent of Germans want Merkel to Quit.

Nearly 40 percent of German voters think Chancellor Angela Merkel should quit over her liberal asylum policy after almost 1.1 million newcomers arrived last year, a poll showed Friday.

As the mood in Germany has shifted from a euphoric welcome for people fleeing war and persecution last September to growing doubts about the country's ability to accommodate and integrate the record influx, the popular Merkel has come under increasing pressure.

However, the poll for Focus news magazine conducted by the independent opinion research institute Insa among 2,047 German citizens showed that a larger share -- nearly 45 percent -- did not think Merkel should resign.

Among members of her conservative Christian Union bloc, nearly 27 percent said they wanted Merkel, who has been in power since 2005, to step down.

Peak Merkel

I called for this well in advance, on October 18, 2015 to be precise: Swamped By Stupidity; Peak Merkel.

But politicians don't resign. They just keep on insisting they are right until they are forced out or voted out of office.

As recently as January 20, Merkel insisted Austrian cap on refugees 'not helpful' for European solution.

Yesterday, Merkel supposedly "struck an accord late Thursday with her fractious left-right coalition to tighten asylum policies, notably by making it easier to send back arrivals from North Africa and by delaying family reunifications."

What a joke!

The family reunification proposal is a rehash of an announcement from months ago. And deporting refugees requires approval from the nation of origin.

Do Syria and the African nations want the refugees back?

Merkel doesn't get it, and she likely never will. Her time is past.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7%; Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming?

Posted: 29 Jan 2016 11:57 AM PST

The BEA "Advance GDP" estimate for 4th quarter came in today at +0.7% vs. an Econoday Consensus Estimate of 0.9%.

Consumer spending is the central driver of the economy but is slowing, at least it was during the fourth quarter when GDP rose only at a 0.7 percent annualized rate. Final demand rose 1.2 percent, which is the weakest since first quarter last year but is still 5 tenths above GDP.

Price data are not accelerating, at plus 0.8 percent for the GDP price index which is the lowest reading since plus 0.1 in the first quarter last year. The core price reading is only slightly higher, at plus 1.1 percent which is also the weakest reading in a year.

There are definitely points of concern in this report, especially the weakness in exports and business investment, but it's the resilience in the consumer, despite a soft holiday season, that headlines this report and should help confirm faith in the domestic strength of the economy.

GDPNow Final Estimate 1.0%

The Atlanta Fed "Final" GDPNow Estimate for the 4th quarter was posted on January 28.

That was the final estimate the GDPNow model will make for the 4th quarter.

The Atlanta Fed's first estimate of 2016 1st quarter GDP growth will be released Monday, February 1.

Q&A #1: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods Report?

The above question pertains to the Atlanta Fed model which rose from 0.7% to 1.0% following a disastrous durable goods report on the 28th (See Shocking Crash: Durable Goods Orders Plunge 5.1%, Shipments Drop 2.2%, Huge Negative Revisions; Recession Here?)

Answer: Patrick Higgins, Senior Economist for the Atlanta Fed, explains via email ...

"Hi Mish, As you probably noticed the model forecast for the contribution of equipment investment to fourth quarter GDP growth declined 0.07 percentage point after the durable goods manufacturing report. But this was more than offset by a 0.20 percentage point increase in the contribution of inventory investment to fourth quarter growth after that same report. The model didn't use the December data on shipments of nondefense aircraft & parts which had an unusually large decline last month (from $16.0 billion to $10.8 billion). That data isn't ever folded in until the exports and imports data for civilian aircraft and parts is released. The net shipments measure fed into the model is aircraft & parts shipments plus imports minus exports. Since the December international trade data won't be released until after the GDP release, the December aircraft data won't ultimately be used for the fourth quarter GDPNow forecast."

Q&A #2 - Are Econoday Economists Tracking GDPNow?

Answer: It appears so at first glance. The Econoday consensus estimate of 0.9% is remarkably close to the 1.0% GDPNow estimate on the 28th and the prior estimate of 0.7% on the 20th. Then again, the Econoday range was a remarkable 0.0% to 2.3%. Why any economist would have predicted 2.3% is a mystery. That alleged economist ought to be following GDPNow more closely.

Q&A #3 - When Will Revisions Come?

Answer: Any time between February 26, 2016 and the next 10 years. The first revision to 4th quarter GDP will come on February 26. The BEA won't call it a revision though. Instead they will label the next revision the "preliminary" estimate for 4th quarter. At that time, first quarter 2016 will be nearly two-thirds over. The alleged "final" estimate for 4th quarter 2015 will come on March 25. Here's the BEA Schedule.

Q&A #4 - What About Construction Revisions?

The above question pertains to a massive GDP revision announced on January 4.

For details please see Diving Into the Revisions: Construction Spending Revised Lower 7 Consecutive Months! 2015 GDP Will Decline vs. Estimates: By How Much?

The BEA blames a "Processing Error" for one of its biggest errors in history. That processing error will affect GDP all the way back to 2005. My statement that revisions can come for 10 years was not a joke.

When will we know how construction affected GDP? I called the BEA on this in early January. The date I recall was July 26.

These guys are fast aren't they?

The main effect of the processing error is that construction spending for 2014 was way lower than reported. This will cause GDP in 2014 to rise.

In a research note, IHS Global Insight US economist Patrick Newport wrote "The upward revision to spending in 2014 is enough to raise growth that year from 2.4% to 2.6%-2.7%. The revisions are likely to boost growth for 2015 as well."

Newport's assessment about 2015 is undoubtedly wrong.

On January 5, I posted this table of construction revisions that I calculated from the BEA's revision announcement.

Total Residential Construction Spending vs. Previous Reports

Date	Total Residential Construction Spending
	Previous M/M Increase	Revised M/M Increase	Difference
Oct-15	0.98%	0.22%	-0.77%
Sep-15	1.58%	1.14%	-0.44%
Aug-15	1.73%	1.06%	-0.67%
Jul-15	1.60%	0.33%	-1.28%
Jun-15	0.74%	0.66%	-0.08%
May-15	1.71%	1.26%	-0.45%
Apr-15	2.60%	0.79%	-1.81%
Mar-15	-0.76%	-0.07%	0.69%
Feb-15	0.50%	0.65%	0.16%
Jan-15	1.25%	1.29%	0.04%
Dec-14	2.22%	2.85%	0.63%
Nov-14	1.52%	2.09%	0.58%
Oct-14	1.38%	2.12%	0.74%
Sep-14	2.24%	2.40%	0.16%
Aug-14	0.15%	-0.05%	-0.19%
Jul-14	0.03%	-0.28%	-0.30%
Jun-14	-1.13%	-0.88%	0.24%
May-14	-2.20%	-0.72%	1.48%
Apr-14	-0.46%	0.56%	1.02%
Mar-14	-1.11%	0.98%	2.09%
Feb-14	-0.76%	0.45%	1.21%
Jan-14	-1.25%	1.69%	2.94%

A quick glance at that table should convince you that GDP will go up in 2014 and down in 2015.

We will find out by how much in July. Lovely.

I guessed GDP would go up by about 25 basis points in first quarter of 2015, and down by about 50 basis points in second and third quarters.

If so, that would subtract about 75 basis points from 2015. My guess could be way off, but at least I have the sign correct.

Q&A #5: What About Recession?

At the start of recessions, GDP is frequently revised way lower for prior quarters, long after the fact, and without a doubt the US economy is flirting with, if not in recession right now.

Thus, construction spending is not the only subtraction I foresee.

For my take on recessions vs. the Fed model (not the Atlanta Fed GDFP model), please see Fed "Workhorse" Model Says Odds of Recession in Next Year Only 3.56%; What are the Real Odds?

Whether or not you accept my statement the US economy is very close to if not in recession right now, the Fed 12-month look ahead model of 3.56% is preposterous.

Q&A #6: What About the Consumer?

Bloomberg repeated the widely held belief "Consumer spending is the central driver of the economy."

I dispute that. So do others. See my article Debunking the Myth "Consumer Spending is 67% of GDP"

I cannot claim credit for the idea. To fully understand why the consumer is not the driver of the economy, please see ... Gross Domestic Output: Linking Austrian and Keynesian Economics: A Variation on a Theme by Mark Skousen.

Skousen destroys the fallacy that consumer spending drives the economy.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Damn Cool Pics

Pablo Picasso's Self Portrait At Age 16 Compared To Age 72

Posted: 29 Jan 2016 06:50 PM PST

Pablo Picasso is known for his unique and abstract art style. When you compare a self portrait he painted at the age of 16 to one he painted at the age of 72 you can see just how much his style changed over the years.

Celebrities Who Showed No Fear While Fighting The Paparazzi

Posted: 29 Jan 2016 02:58 PM PST

These celebrities sure know how to throw a punch and a kick and an umbrella for that matter.

Seth's Blog : "But what will I tell the others?"

"But what will I tell the others?"

Seven urgent words that are rarely uttered.

The profound question that clueless marketers almost never consider.

The words we imagine we'll tell the boss, the neighbors, our spouse after we make a change or take an action... this drives the choices that constitute our culture, it's the secret thread that runs through just about everything we do.

• Email to a friend •

joi, 28 ianuarie 2016

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Bank of Japan Adopts Negative Interest Rates: Surprise, Surprise We Lied Again; Meaning of "Now"
World's First Robot-Run Lettuce Farm to Produce 30,000 Heads Daily; Tipping Point for Workerless Agriculture
Shocking Crash: Durable Goods Orders Plunge 5.1%, Shipments Drop 2.2%, Huge Negative Revisions; Recession Here?
Fed "Workhorse" Model Says Odds of Recession in Next Year Only 3.56%; What are the Real Odds?

Bank of Japan Adopts Negative Interest Rates: Surprise, Surprise We Lied Again; Meaning of "Now"

Posted: 28 Jan 2016 11:03 PM PST

Meaning of "Now"

Eight days ago, the Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda, said No Plan to Adopt Negative Rates Now.

Well, that was then, and this is now.

Negative Rates Announced

Today we learn Bank of Japan Adopts Negative Interest Rates.

The Bank of Japan has slashed interest rates to minus 0.1 per cent in a shock move that adds a new dimension to its record monetary stimulus.

Showing its willingness to expand the policy further, the BoJ said it "will cut the interest rate further into negative territory if judged necessary".

"The bank will lower the short end of the yield curve by slashing its deposit rate on current accounts into negative territory and will exert further downward pressure on interest rates across the entire yield curve."

However, the BoJ will use a complicated three-tier system, which makes the negative rate much weaker than comparable moves by the ECB and other European central banks.

Crucially, it will only pay negative rates on any new bank reserves resulting from its programme of asset purchases. All existing bank reserves — which amount to about $2.5tn or 50 per cent of gross domestic product — will continue to be paid interest at 0.1 per cent.

That means there is unlikely to be any impact on bank profits or bank depositors in the short term. The negative interest rate will only have an impact over time as the BoJ keeps buying assets and creating new bank reserves.

The move will add to Mr Kuroda's reputation for surprises, suddenly adopting policies he has vehemently denied were even possible. Eight days ago he told parliament the BoJ was "not seriously considering" a negative rate.

Surprise, Surprise, We Lied Again

If any of these surprises ever accomplished anything, we wouldn't keep having them.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

World's First Robot-Run Lettuce Farm to Produce 30,000 Heads Daily; Tipping Point for Workerless Agriculture

Posted: 28 Jan 2016 01:18 PM PST

Future of Farming

The future of farming has arrived. It's vertical, soilless, and run by robots.

Tech Insider reports World's First Robot-run farm will harvest 30,000 heads of lettuce daily.

The Japanese lettuce production company Spread believes the farmers of the future will be robots.

So much so that Spread is creating the world's first farm manned entirely by robots. Instead of relying on human farmers, the indoor Vegetable Factory will employ robots that can harvest 30,000 heads of lettuce every day.

Don't expect a bunch of humanoid robots to roam the halls, however; the robots look more like conveyor belts with arms. They'll plant seeds, water plants, and trim lettuce heads after harvest in the Kyoto, Japan farm.

The Vegetable Factory follows the growing agricultural trend of vertical farming, where farmers grow crops indoors without natural sunlight. Instead, they rely on LED light and grow crops on racks that stack on top of each other.

In addition to increasing production and reducing waste, indoor vertical farming also eliminates runoff from pesticides and herbicides — chemicals used in traditional outdoor farming that can be harmful to the environment.

The new farm, set to open in 2017, will be an upgrade to Spread's existing indoor farm, the Kameoka Plant. That farm currently produces about 21,000 heads of lettuce per day with help from a small staff of humans. Spread's new automation technology will not only produce more lettuce, it will also reduce labor costs by 50%, cut energy use by 30%, and recycle 98% of water needed to grow the crops.

Go Vertical

What starts with lettuce, won't stay with lettuce. Strawberries, cabbage, tomatoes, beans, eggplant, and many other vegetables can be grown this way.

Potatoes, peanuts, and things that grow in the ground may be off limits. Corn is too tall with acreage requirements too big.

Vertical Farms Half the Size of a Wal-Mart

Also consider Indoor Vertical Farm Half the Size of a Wal-Mart.

Matt Matros reads about the 34,000 bags of spinach Dole just recalled and shudders. A Salmonella contamination never would have happened on his farm.

Matros is CEO of FarmedHere, the largest indoor vertical farm in North America. At 90,000 square feet, the Bedford, Illinois farm is a leader in a growing agriculture movement that grows crops without soil and sunlight. Instead, these crops are grown indoors, where they're always monitored and kept away from harmful bacteria.

FarmedHere also prioritizes locally sourcing its produce, Matros says. It wants to deliver its herbs and leafy greens to consumers living at most 200 miles away, as part of a larger mission to reduce its carbon footprint.

In Matros' eyes, the move follows in the footsteps of the fast-casual chain Chipotle, which recently updated its mission to source from farms at most 350 miles away.

With 18 FarmedHere facilities, 75% of the US population would fall within that 200-mile radius, ensuring the produce can reach consumers quickly.

So far, the main crops are basil, mint, lettuce, and kale. Those are the low-hanging fruit that are easy to grow, Matros says.

Without the hassle of Mother Nature's changing climate, farmers can enjoy year-round growing seasons indoors, using less water, fewer pesticides, and avoid biological invaders that cause diseases like Salmonella, Escherichia coli (E. coli), and Listeria.

The company is anticipating an industry-wide tipping point a couple years down the line in which the winners are the local farmers who can provide nutritious food to nearby residents who need it, taking a big chunk of all long-haul trucks filled with produce off the road for good.

Tipping Point

Instead of digging deeper and deeper wells in the California desert to grow things, water in these farms is 95-98% recycled.

And commenting on labor issues, Matros points to Amazon's use of factory robots: "We're going to have that in our next farm, which will be open in about a year."

Japan will have similar technology in a similar timeframe.

The tipping point for worker-less agriculture has arrived.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Shocking Crash: Durable Goods Orders Plunge 5.1%, Shipments Drop 2.2%, Huge Negative Revisions; Recession Here?

Posted: 28 Jan 2016 10:35 AM PST

Crash!

Durable goods orders and shipments crashed in December.

The Econoday Consensus Estimate for durable goods new orders was a 0.2% rise. Here are the amazing results.

Crash vs. Thud

Econoday called the results a "giant thud". The words "giant crash" seem more appropriate. In retrospect, both terms may be inappropriate. Have we landed yet, or are we still falling?

Econoday reports ...

The factory sector ended 2015 with a giant thud. Durable goods orders fell 5.1 percent in December vs expectations for a 0.2 percent gain and a low-end estimate of minus 3.0 percent. Aircraft orders didn't help but they weren't the whole cause of the problem as ex-transportation orders fell 1.2 percent vs expectations for no change and a low-end estimate of minus 0.4 percent. Core capital goods, which exclude defense equipment and also aircraft, are especially weak, down 4.3 percent following a 1.1 percent decline in November. Shipments for core capital goods, which are an input into GDP, slipped 0.2 percent following a downward revised 1.1 percent decline in November (initially minus 0.4 percent).

Orders for civilian aircraft lead the dismal list, down 29 percent in December. The other main subcomponent for transportation, motor vehicles, also fell, down 0.4 percent in a reminder that vehicle sales were slowing at year end. Capital goods industries show deep declines: machinery down 5.6 percent, computers down 8.7 percent, communications equipment down 21 percent, and fabricated metals down 0.5 percent.

Other readings include a surprising 2.2 percent monthly drop in total shipments and a 0.5 percent drop in total unfilled orders. All this weakness isn't a plus for inventories which rose 0.5 percent to lift the inventory-to-shipments ratio sharply, to 1.69 from 1.64. The rise in inventories poses a headwind to the sector and will dampen future shipments as well as employment and is a reminder of the inventory warning in yesterday's FOMC statement.

Inventories Up 5 Consecutive Months

Those who wish to dive into the details can do so at the Census Bureau report Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders December 2015.

Here are some additional inventory highlights:

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in December, up following five consecutive monthly decreases, increased $2.1 billion, or 0.5 percent, to $397.9 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent November decrease.
Transportation, up following three consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $1.8 billion or 1.4percent to $131.8 billion.

Autos Down 4th Quarter

Of other note, the auto sector that had been on fire in 2015 went negative in the fourth quarter.

October, November, December shipments for motor vehicles and parts were -2.9%, +1.1%, -0.4%.
October, November, December orders for motor vehicles and parts are -3.0%, +1.0%, -0.4%.

Recession Here?

In contrast to the preposterous Fed model that says the odds of a recession in all of 2016 is a mere 3.56%, this report strengthens the odds the US economy is already in recession.

For further discussion, please see Fed "Workhorse" Model Says Odds of Recession in Next Year Only 3.56%; What are the Real Odds?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Fed "Workhorse" Model Says Odds of Recession in Next Year Only 3.56%; What are the Real Odds?

Posted: 28 Jan 2016 12:39 AM PST

Of all the ridiculous opinions as to why the US is not about to enter a recession, the Fed's "Workhorse" Model is at the top of the list.

Torsten Sløk, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank, is taking the optimistic route by drawing attention to a certain economic model that currently puts the chance of an imminent contraction in the single digits. The Federal Reserve's so-called probit model looks at the difference between 10-year and three-month U.S. Treasury rates to gauge the probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months.

"The Fed has a workhorse recession model where [the] yield curve today is a predictor of future recessions, and running the Fed's probit model with today's values for 10-year and 3-month rates shows that there is currently a 4 percent probability of a recession over the next 12 months," Sløk said in an e-mail.

The Model

Prepare to have your eyes gloss over because here is the model.

Highlights in yellow are mine. Note that two constants are estimated using data from January 1959 to December 2005. Not only that, the constants were fitted to match what happened. Lovely.

Practical Considerations

Those hand-picked constants happened to work in prior recessions with varying degrees of success as noted in a New York Fed paper appropriately called The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator: Some Practical Issues.

The report failed to mention the most practical of practical issues: It's damn hard for the 3-month to invert with 10-year treasuries when the Fed has artificially held short-term yields closet to zero.

Of course there is a practical reason for the Fed not pointing out that practicality. The article was written in 2006 before short-term yields went to zero.

You might have thought chief international economists would have stopped to consider such practical issues, but you would be wrong.

One might also have thought such issues would have crossed the minds of the New York Fed, but please banish that thought as well.

The New York Fed research still promotes this ridiculous model on its page The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator.

You can download the current data to play with in Excel. You can also download the current 12-month look-ahead probability chart.

Yield Curve and Recessions

Despite the obvious uselessness of the indicator under current conditions, others are on the same bandwagon.

Pater Tenebrarum at the acting man took them to task back in 2014 with his post Yield Curve and Recessions.

One popular theme gets reprinted in variations over and over again. Here is a recent example from Business Insider, which breathlessly informs us of the infallibility of the yield curve as a forecasting tool: "This Market Measure Has A Perfect Track Record For Predicting US Recessions" the headline informs us – and we dimly remember having seen variants of this article on the same site at least three times by now:
At a breakfast earlier today, LPL Financial's Jeffrey Kleintop noted that the yield curve inverted just prior to every U.S. recession in the past 50 years. "That is seven out of seven times — a perfect forecasting track record," he reiterated.

The yield curve is inverted when short-term interest rates (e.g. the 3-year Treasury) are higher than long-term interest rates (e.g. the 10-year Treasury yield). "The yield curve inversion usually takes place about 12 months before the start of the recession, but the lead time ranges from about 5 to 16 months," wrote Kleintop in a recent note. "The peak in the stock market comes around the time of the yield curve inversion, ahead of the recession and accompanying downturn in corporate profits."
This is it! The holy grail of forecasting, Jeffrey Kleintop has discovered it. You'll never have to worry about actual earnings reports, a massive bubble in junk debt, the sluggishness of the economy, new record levels in sentiment measures and margin debt, record low mutual fund cash reserves, the pace of money supply growth, or anything else again. Just watch the yield curve!

Holy Grail

No need to sell now. The holy grail has been perfected. When the yield curve inverts, wait another six months for stocks to peak then sell.

Tenebrarum points out the amazing success of that method for Japan.

The model last worked in1991. Since then, the yield-curve method has had a perfect track record of failure. In at least 6 recessions since, counting one in 2014 the above chart does not show, the model has failed.

Recession Odds

I think there is a 25% chance or better the US already went into recession as of December 2015 or January 2016. A couple of bad jobs reports will seal the deal, and it may not even take that. But that's just a guess. I have no economic formula for economists to go gaga over.

John Hussman does have a nice discussion in his latest post Wicked Skew: When Extreme Losses are Standard Outcomes.

On the economic front, I continue to believe that a U.S. recession is not only a risk, but is now the most probable outcome. As I noted last week, among confirming indicators that generally emerge fairly early once a recession has taken hold, we would be particularly attentive to the following: a sudden drop in consumer confidence about 20 points below its 12-month average (which would currently equate to a drop to the 75 level on the Conference Board measure), a decline in aggregate hours worked below its level 3-months prior, a year-over-year increase of about 20% in new claims for unemployment (which would currently equate to a level of about 340,000 weekly new claims), and slowing growth in real personal income.

Last week, new claims for unemployment jumped to 293,000, a level we've observed only once since last April. Even at this early point (given that employment measures are among the most lagging economic indicators), we already observe a pickup in claims from last year's lows. To put this increase into perspective, the chart below shows points where the ISM Purchasing Managers Index was below 50, the S&P 500 was below its level of 6 months prior, and the 4-week average of initial unemployment claims was at least 5% above its 12-month low. While a year-over-year increase in unemployment claims closer to 20% would be a more reliable confirmation of recession, it's clear that even here, the current combination of evidence is more associated with recession than not.

One Model is Wrong

Seven out of seven times we have been in these conditions, the economy was close to or in recession.

That's one possible model. It contrasts with the Fed's model which says the 12-month look ahead odds are only 3.56%.

Take your pick.

Some economists take the Fed's model.

Why? Because the Fed put a formula to it. That makes it official even though the model has no scientific basis under current conditions.

Simply put, some economists refuse to think.

Reflections on Economic Modeling

Constants α and β are on the verge of massive revisions. After the next recession (which we may already be in), the Fed will see fit to dream up a revised formula that will take into account conditions at zero bound.

That revision will work for the last two recessions but it may not work for the next three.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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vineri, 29 ianuarie 2016

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics

Seth's Blog : "But what will I tell the others?"

"But what will I tell the others?"

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joi, 28 ianuarie 2016

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Ranking changes of your website on Google

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vineri, 29 ianuarie 2016

joi, 28 ianuarie 2016

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