miercuri, 15 septembrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Empire State Manufacturing Activity Flattens; Huge Divergences Appear - What Does It Mean?

Posted: 15 Sep 2010 02:32 PM PDT

Inquiring minds are digging into details of the September Federal Reserve Empire State Manufacturing Survey for clues on the economy.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions held relatively steady in New York's manufacturing sector in September. The general business conditions index remained positive, although it slipped 3 points to 4.1. The new orders and shipments indexes were both up moderately for the month, at levels signaling stable activity. The prices paid index was positive and little changed from last month, while the prices received index edged up to just above zero. Employment indexes were positive, suggesting that employment levels and the average workweek continued to expand over the month. The degree of optimism about the six-month outlook continued to deteriorate, with the future general business conditions index hitting its lowest level since early 2009.

Business Activity Flattens Out

The general business conditions index remained above zero in September, but inched down three points from August. At 4.1, the index suggests that business activity was little changed over the month. Almost 35 percent of respondents said that conditions had improved over the month—up from the 30 percent who had said so last month, but the percentage that reported worsening conditions increased from 22 percent in August to 31 percent.
Selected Empire State Charts



Current Business Conditions


Expectations Six Months Ahead



Divergences

Current conditions have stabilized while future expectations continue to deteriorate, five consecutive months. Did we just see a "last gasp" in new orders and shipments?

Stabilization?

More interesting yet is the way in which the current conditions index has "stabilized".

A tip of the hat to reader "Ronald" who writes...
In the ten years of data they have on their website, this is the first time I have seen the percentage of businesses showing increases and the number of businesses showing decreases in general activity both increased 2 months running. Moreover, this is the 3rd lowest level of businesses conditions staying at the same level. Finally, when businesses showing deteriorating conditions reached 30 percent, it has typically been during recession and the index has historically been between 0 and -10.

I don't think this can continue and it looks to me like the number is going to break big up or down.
A quick check shows the following.

July: This month, 27 percent of respondents said that conditions had improved, while 22 percent said that conditions had worsened.

August: Roughly 30 percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved, while 22 percent reported that conditions had worsened.

September: Almost 35 percent of respondents said that conditions had improved over the month—up from the 30 percent who had said so last month, but the percentage that reported worsening conditions increased from 22 percent in August to 31 percent."

The reports actually show consecutive rises in improved conditions with a one month huge rise in deteriorating conditions.

Nonetheless, how long can a third of businesses report better conditions with nearly a third of businesses reporting worsening conditions?

In conjunction with future expectations falling 5 consecutive months to the lowest level since March 2009, I suggest "not long".

Look for these divergences to break to the downside, most likely in a strong way that will surprise the vast majority of economists who never bother to look at the details in these reports.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Home Prices Drop in 36 States; Beazer Warns on Orders; 8 Million Foreclosure-Bound Homes to Hit the Market; Prices to Stagnate for a Decade

Posted: 15 Sep 2010 10:53 AM PDT

The small upward correction in home prices from multiple tax credit offerings died in July. Worse yet, inventory of homes for sale as well as shadow inventory both soared. 8 million foreclosure-bound homes have yet to hit the market according to Morgan Stanley.

Home Prices Drop in 36 States

CoreLogic reports Growing Number of Declining Markets Underscore Weakness in the Housing Market without Tax-Credit Support
CoreLogic Home Price Index Remained Flat in July

SANTA ANA, Calif., September 15, 2010 – CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), a leading provider of information, analytics and business services, today released its Home Price Index (HPI) that showed that home prices in the U.S. remained flat in July as transaction volumes continue to decline. This was the first time in five months that no year-over-year gains were reported. According to the CoreLogic HPI, national home prices, including distressed sales showed no change in July 2010 compared to July 2009. June 2010 HPI showed a 2.4 percent* year-over-year gain compared to June 2009.

"Although home prices were flat nationally, the majority of states experienced price declines and price declines are spreading across more geographies relative to a few months ago. Home prices fell in 36 states in July, nearly twice the number in May and the highest since last November when national home prices were declining," said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.

Methodology

The CoreLogic HPI incorporates more than 30 years worth of repeat sales transactions, representing more than 55 million observations sourced from CoreLogic industry-leading property information and its securities and servicing databases. The CoreLogic HPI provides a multi-tier market evaluation based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. nonconforming), and distressed sales. The CoreLogic HPI is a repeat-sales index that tracks increases and decreases in sales prices for the same homes over time, which provides a more accurate "constant-quality" view of pricing trends than basing analysis on all home sales. The CoreLogic HPI provides the most comprehensive set of monthly home price indices and median sales prices available covering 6,208 ZIP codes (58 percent of total U.S. population), 572 Core Based Statistical Areas (85 percent of total U.S. population) and 1,027 counties (82 percent of total U.S. population) located in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
CoreLogic HPI Including Distressed Sales



See the above article for additional charts

Beazer Homes Warns on Orders

The Wall Street Journal reports Beazer Homes Warns of Order Miss
Beazer Homes USA Inc. said Wednesday it might miss order expectations for its fiscal-fourth quarter, as it also cut estimates for the year's land and development spending, reflecting the sector's weakness following the expiration of home-buyer tax credits.

Last month, Beazer reported that its fiscal third-quarter loss was little changed because of a prior-year gain, while it reported a 73% surge in closings as buyers raced to qualify for the tax credit. Orders fell 33%.
Inventory Soars

Bloomberg reports U.S. Home Prices Face Three-Year Drop as Supply Gains
The slide in U.S. home prices may have another three years to go as sellers add as many as 12 million more properties to the market.

Shadow inventory -- the supply of homes in default or foreclosure that may be offered for sale -- is preventing prices from bottoming after a 28 percent plunge from 2006, according to analysts from Moody's Analytics Inc., Fannie Mae, Morgan Stanley and Barclays Plc. Those properties are in addition to houses that are vacant or that may soon be put on the market by owners.

"Whether it's the sidelined, shadow or current inventory, the issue is there's more supply than demand," said Oliver Chang, a U.S. housing strategist with Morgan Stanley in San Francisco. "Once you reach a bottom, it will take three or four years for prices to begin to rise 1 or 2 percent a year."

Sales of new and existing homes fell to the lowest levels on record in July as a federal tax credit for buyers expired and U.S.

Rising supply threatens to undermine government efforts to boost the housing market as homebuyers wait for better deals. Further price declines are necessary for a sustainable rebound as a stimulus-driven recovery falters, said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist of Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc., a New York economic forecasting firm

There were 4 million homes listed with brokers for sale as of July. It would take a record 12.5 months for those properties to be sold at that month's sales pace, according to the Chicago-based Realtors group [National Association of Realtors].

"The best thing that could happen is for prices to get to a level that clears the market," said Shapiro, who predicts prices may fall another 10 percent to 15 percent. "Right now, buyers know it hasn't hit bottom, so they're sitting on the sidelines."

About 2 million houses will be seized by lenders by the end of next year, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. He estimates prices will drop 5 percent by 2013.

Douglas Duncan, chief economist for Washington-based Fannie Mae, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview last week that 7 million U.S. homes are vacant or in the foreclosure process. Morgan Stanley's Chang said the number of bank-owned and foreclosure-bound homes that have yet to hit the market is closer to 8 million.

Defaulted mortgages as of July took an average 469 days to reach foreclosure, up from 319 days in January 2009. That's an indication lenders -- with the help of the government loan modification programs -- are delaying resolutions and preventing the market from flooding with distressed properties, said Herb Blecher, senior vice president for analytics at LPS.

"The efforts to date have been worthwhile," Blecher said in a telephone interview from Denver. "They both helped borrowers stay in their homes and kept that supply of distressed properties on the market somewhat limited."

I disagree with Herb Blecher. I see little advantage stretching this mess out for a decade, and that is what the government seems hell-bent on doing. Everyone wants the government to "do something". Unfortunately tax credits stimulated the production of new homes, ultimately adding to inventory. Prices need to fall to levels where there is genuine demand.

The short-term rise in the Case-Shiller home price index and the CoreLogic HPI was a mirage that will soon vanish in the reality of an inventory of 8 million homes that must eventually hit the market.

Lost Decade
About 2 million houses will be seized by lenders by the end of next year, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. He estimates prices will drop 5 percent by 2013.

After reaching bottom, prices will gain at the historic annual pace of 3 percent, requiring more than 10 years to return to their peak, he said.
Home Price Pressures

Last Bubble Not Reblown

After the bottom is found, remember the axiom: the last bubble is not reblown for decades. Look at the Nasdaq, still off more than 50% from a decade ago.

The odds home prices return to their peak in 10 years is close to zero. Houses in bubble areas may never return to peak levels in existing owner's lifetimes. Zandi is way overoptimistic in his assessment of 3% annual appreciation after the bottom is found.

Price Stagnation

I expect small nominal increases after housing bottoms, but negative appreciation in real terms as inflation picks up in the second half of the decade. Yes, deflation will eventually end. Alternatively the US goes in and out of deflation for a decade (depending on how much the Fed and Congress acts to prevent a much needed bottom). Either way, look for price stagnation in one form or another.

Thus, if you have come to the conclusion there is no good reason to hold on to a deeply underwater home, nor any reason to rush into a home purchase at this time, you have reached the right conclusions.

Hyperinflation? Please be serious.

When Will Housing Bottom?

Flashback October 25, 2007: When Will Housing Bottom?
On the basis of mortgage rate resets and a consumer led recession I mentioned a possible bottom in the 2011-2012 timeframe. See Housing - The Worst Is Yet To Come for more details.

Let's take a look at housing from another perspective: new home sales historic averages and housing from 1963 to present.

New Home Sales 1963 - Present

New home sales reached a cyclical high in 2004-2005 approximately 50-60% higher than previous peaks.This happened in spite of a slowdown in population growth and household formation as compared to the 1960-1980 timeframe.

From 1997-1998 and 2001-2002 to the recent peak, the average sales level was 1.1 million units, or 45-50% higher than the 40 year average. This translates to an average of 300,000-400,000 excess homes for nearly a decade, and arguably as many as 3-4 million excess homes.

Such excess inventory may require as many as 5-7 years at recessionary average sales to absorb this inventory.

Cycle Excesses Greatest In History

The excesses of the current cycle have never been greater in history. The odds are strong that we have seen secular as opposed to cyclical peaks in housing starts and new single family home construction. With that in mind it is highly unlikely we merely return to the trend. If history repeats, and there is every reason it will, we are going to undercut those long term trendlines.

There will be additional pressures a few years down the road when empty nesters and retired boomers start looking to downsize. Who will be buying those McMansions? Immigration also comes into play. If immigration policies and protectionism get excessively restrictive, that can also lengthen the decline.

Finally, note that the current boom has lasted well over twice as long as any other. If the bust lasts twice as long as any other, 2012 just might be a rather optimist target for a bottom.
When I wrote that in 2007, most thought I was off my rocker. Now, based on inventory, I may have been far too optimistic.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


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What You Need to Know About the #NewTwitter

Posted: 15 Sep 2010 04:11 AM PDT

Posted by JoannaLord

Well yesterday was a big day on Twitter, wasn't it? I don't know about you but I was glued to the live stream of the not-so top secret Twitter press conference at exactly 3:30 pm and watched closely for an hour and a half while @Ev and @Biz told us all about the new "bigger and better" Twitter.com.  The founders outlined many of the recent achievements they have seen with the growth of their community and announced the release of a brand new interface for Twitter.com, which will be rolling out to all users over the new few weeks (it's important to note that currently only 1% of users have access to the redesign, that decision was not so well received.)

The new  interface has a renewed focus on the user experience with in stream multi-media expansions, more search capabilities, and an all around sexier more fluid feeling. I went crazy yesterday playing with the new interface and wanted to share way too many screenshots and my thoughts on the new layout. I am excited to hear what you guys think all of these changes mean, so let's do this, shall we? What are the big changes to our beloved Twitter.com?

1. Redirect users back to THEIR WEBSITE – Whoa!

I have to admit I got a little fiesty yesterday when I saw my stream fill up with tweets that said things like "that is it?!" and "its just a new interface, what's the big deal?!" Twitter has over 160 million users, but as we all know many of those users use second party Twitter clients rather than the web interface itself. Ev noted yesterday at the conference that Twitter mobile users are up 250% year over year, which was the motivation for them to release their own mobile apps earlier this year. While this mobile surge has meant huge growth for the community it hasn't done as much for their on-site value. The announcement yesterday was important because it was their first real attempt to redirect those millions of users to a more compelling on-site experience. Whatever the long term goal is for Twitter.com the website, yesterday's announcement was a huge step toward a more united community of users. This.is.a.big.deal.folks.

New Twitter Platform

 (The new Twitter.com... ohhh pretty!)

2. A whole lot more space for .... uhmmmm advertisements?

So now that we have refocused our attention and time back to Twitter.com what will they do with it? Well sell us things obviously. As you can see below there sure is a lot more space for Twitter to fill. You will notice the "Sponsored Tweets" and the "Who to Follow" elements are more prominent. In addition to that you will see some open areas (that look a lot like traditional ad space units) laced throughout the platform. In general I think its pretty clear that they used this UI redesign to give themselves more options for the up and coming advertising platform we keep hearing about.

Twitter Ad Space

(Notice all that space they get to play with!)

3. Focus on other tweets, searches…you know uhmmm NOT your tweet

During the press conference Ev mentioned specifically that Twitter is a unique community of users in that not everyone actually tweets. He noted plenty of people use it just to listen or research...very "search enginey" if you ask me (yes I just made that word up). The new design certainly focuses less on my actual tweet and more on the experience I am having as a Twitter user. You will see the "search box" was moved to top right, and has much more functionality than previously. I can see tweets with my searched word(s), "tweets with links" & that word, "tweets near me" with that word, and see profiles or people that include that searched word. This is a far better experience all around if you ask me, again compelling users to stay on Twitter.com rather than leave and search elsewhere. Smart move people, smart move.

New Search Experience

(New search experience...man I love Pumpkin Spice lattes from Starbucks)

4. Media, media, media oh my!

This is probably the change you are hearing most about. The new platform has the ability to view pictures and video in stream, by expanding from the left column (your tweet stream) to the right column (now used more as an expanded view). In addition to seeing whatever multi media you clicked on you will also see people mentioned in the tweet you expanded, a brief history of that user's tweets, and the latest tweet that tweet may have been in response too. Uhmmm sound confusing? Basically the expanded view of any tweet is now much more of a comprehensive story of that tweet. No longer on the web client will you be clicking from profile to profile to read a full conversation and get context. This new layout has put the story of a tweet together for you in one place. It's smooth, trust me...you will like it!

Image in Twitter

(The new platform when you expand an image... Hi Matt!)

 

Video in Twitter

(The new platform with expanded video...ohhh puppy!)

5. All sorts of other little things

  • You are not losing your backgrounds (phew!). Atleast right now we still have them. Also you might want to revisit your right column profile color--it's bigger now.
  • Direct messages are up in your navigation (quite seperate from the other functionality actually) and are much more streamlined in my opinion. You now click in and see the number of DM exchanges, and can expand to see them all clearly. I was happy to see this. However you no longer see a "number" which was the only way us web client users knew if we had a new DM (unless we got an email notification) so be careful not to miss those new DMs!
  • The new platform still does not support multiple users, sorry folks!
  • Retweets. I still don't really like them, so don't hate me when I say that I am stoked they made the ability to shut off retweets from someone so much easier! It's in there next to the option to get a user's tweets on your cell. Both options are right there and a simple click to change. Easy smeasy for sure.
  • The new platform makes replying to multiple people challenging. No longer can you hit reply and aggregate user handles in one tweet, each "reply" click pulls up an individual tweet box. Ugh, yuck. I hope they change this soon.

    Reply within Twitter
    (When you hit reply a box pops-up...still a bit buggy right now)

  • "Trends" have some serious face time. I think we will find a lot more focus as marketers on getting our topics on the "trend" list (organically or not maybe eventually purchased) as I can imagine this will be much like scoring first page Digg time...similar atleast. You can see they are now top right, whoa in your face!
  • They are calling this a "preview" on the interface, and when you get it you will have a notification box where you must manually click into it. You can also (atleast right now, I guess its going away in a few weeks) chose to "leave the preview" and return to your old interface. I don't think you will want to, but to each their own ;)

That about sums up the big changes I am seeing. As for what it all means? I think this is a renewed focus on Twitter.com - the site not Twitter -  the company. Both Evan and Biz alluded to lots of changes coming down the pipeline, and there is a clear energy of excitement in the stream. I don't know about you but I am certainly going to playing around more on the web interface both as a user and a marketer. I think we will have some interesting opportunities coming our way...uhmmm both as users and as marketers ;)
 

Looking for other insights?
Checked out @ev's stream from yesterday, he gave a play for play
Read the official blog post about it
Watch a video and learn more about it from Twitter


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Build Your Own Weighted Sort (GA Style)

Posted: 14 Sep 2010 11:26 AM PDT

Posted by Dr. Pete

If you're a Google Analytics fan, you probably already know that Google released a new and incredibly useful featured called Weighted Sort. If you haven't seen it, here's a quick example – let's say you want to know which of your referring sites have the highest bounce rate. You could pull up your referrers, sort by bounce rate, and get something like this:

Standard Google Analytics Sort

Fascinating, right? I now know that I lost 7 visitors due to 5 sites. If I could just get that bounce rate down to 60%, I'd have 3 more visitors. Wow. What did you really want to know, intuitively? Probably something more like this:

Google Analytics Weighted Sort

That's better – it's not the absolute highest bounce rate you wanted to know about, but the most important high bounce rate referrers. In a nutshell, that's the question weighted sort tries to answer.

How It Works

So, how does weighted sort work, exactly? Avinash Kaushik wrote a fascinating and very transparent post on the method behind Google's weighted sort algorithm. I encourage you to read his post and I don't want to copy it, but I'll try to do a very basic review here.

Google uses something called the "Estimated True Value" (ETV). ETV essentially says this – if the count column of the sort (in this case, Visits) is very low, assume that the column of interest (Bounce Rate) is roughly the average for the data in question. In other words, if a row has 1 visit and the average bounce rate is 75%, then set the ETV of bounce rate for that row to 75%. Since 1 visit isn't enough, statistically speaking, to make any really conclusions, we'll essentially ignore it.

On the other end of the spectrum, if you have a very high visit value, assume the bounce rate is accurate as is. Simple enough, right? What about values in the middle? Well, Google sets the ETV somewhere in between the average and the row's bounce rate. Exactly how much of each they use is the tricky part.

The Equation

This is where Avinash's post ends and mine really begins. I should warn you – it's not going to get Ben-complicated, but there is going to be some math. After a bout of 4am insomnia, I pieced together a simplified weighted sort equation. I'm going to present it first, explain it, and then provide an Excel spreadsheet with some real-life examples.

Let's assume we've got a data set exactly like above – visit counts and bounce rates for a set of referring sites. We're going to need 4 sets of variables:

  • V = Visits for Row X
  • B = Bounce Rate for Row X
  • MV = Max Visits for the data set
  • AB = Average (mean) Bounce Rate for the data set

For any given row, the ETV of Bounce Rate – ETV(B) – can be represented by the following equation:

ETV(B) = (V / MV * B) + ((1 - (V / MV)) * AB)

Crystal clear, right? It's not really as bad as it looks. Let's take an example – say we have the following data (same 4 variables as above):

  • V = 100
  • B = 80%
  • MV = 500
  • AB = 60%

The ETV(B) will consist of two components:

  1. V / MV * B = 100 / 500 * 0.80 = 0.20 * 0.80 = 0.16
  2. 1 - (V / MV) * AB = 1 - (100 / 500) * 0.60 = 0.80 * 0.60 = 0.48
  3. ETV(B) = 0.16 + 0.48 = 0.64

Pay attention to the parts in bold – since 100 visits is 20% of the max visits for this data set, this row gets 20% of its bounce rate from the actual value and the rest (80%) from the average value for the data set. So, essentially, how much we use the "real" bounce rate for the row is a function of the proportion of that row's visit value to the visit value of the top referrer.

Build Your Own

Want to try it yourself? You can download my Excel spreadsheet and see the formula at work across a larger data set of actual referring visits from my own site. Although this replicates a function you already have in Google Analytics, it can be used for all sorts of applications that you don't have in GA, including PPC metrics (Visits by Quality Score, for example).

There are actually four sheets in the Excel workbook:

  1. Basic ETV formula
  2. Google's ETV sort
  3. Weighted ETV formula
  4. Log-based ETV formula

Those last two require a bit of explaining. In my very simple model (1), I calculate the average bounce rate by just taking an average across all the rows (for this data set = 70.6%). The thing is, that's not how Google calculates the average bounce rate. They actually weight it by the number of visits, which makes perfect sense. So, in Google Analytics, my bounce rate for this data set is 74.6%, which is what (3) shows. If you compare (2) to (3), you'll see that my weighted formula only differs in the Top 10 by rows #8 and #9 being swapped.

My approach is a pretty good approximation for this data set, but it's still just an approximation. If you have a very large range of visit values (1 to 100,000), you might find that rows with smaller but still interesting counts (1,000+) get unfairly ignored. Sheet (4) is a more complex formula that uses the Log (base 2) of visits instead of the raw visit value. This has the effect of de-emphasizing the visit count in favor of the "real" bounce rate for that row.

If you're still with me at this point, I hope you'll play around with the spreadsheet. If you find issues with your own data sets or discover some better/cooler way of doing it, please share it in the comments.


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Creating Jobs and Lithium-Ion Batteries in Michigan

The White House Energy and Climate Agenda
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
 

The Week in Energy and Climate

Thanks in part to funding from the Recovery Act, A123 Systems opened the largest lithium-ion electric vehicle battery manufacturing plant in North America. Plants like this one will help ensure that the energy efficient cars of the future are built right here in America. Secretary of Energy Steven Chu visited A123 Systems on Monday to celebrate this milestone and President Obama called workers to congratulate them on their success. A123 Systems has already hired 200 local workers since last August and expects to hire 3,000 more people by 2012.

Highlights

Revitalizing American Manufacturing
September 13, 2010
Secretary of Energy Steven Chu visits A123 Systems in Michigan as they open largest lithium-ion automotive battery production facility in North America thanks to the Recovery Act.

Leading by Example Toward a Sustainable Future
September 10, 2010
Federal agencies released Strategic Sustainability Performance Plans that outline how they will achieve the environmental, energy and economic goals called for in the President's Executive Order on Federal Leadership in Environmental, Energy and Economic Performance.

DOT, EPA Invite Public Input on New Vehicle Fuel Economy Window Stickers
September 8, 2010
The Department of Transportation and the Environmental Protection Agency produce new vehicle fuel economy labels and ask for public feedback on the proposed designs.

The U.S. and China - Advancing Clean Energy Research Through Cooperation
September 3, 2010
The Department of Energy announces that two consortia - one led by the University of Michigan and one led by the West Virginia University - will receive a total of $25 million over the next five years under the U.S.-China Clean Energy Research Center (CERC).

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Daily Snapshot: The President and the Cabinet

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
 

Photo of the Day

Photo of the Day - September 14, 2010

President Barack Obama waves as he leaves Air Force One at Andrews Air Force Base, MD, after the flight from Philadelphia, PA, Sept. 14, 2010. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

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Today's Schedule

In the morning, the President and the Vice President will meet with General Ray Odierno in the Oval Office.  In the afternoon, the President will hold a Cabinet meeting in the Cabinet Room. You can check out an exclusive behind-the-scenes video of the President and his Cabinet here.

In the evening, the President will deliver remarks at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute’s 33rd Annual Awards Gala at the Washington Convention Center. The First Lady will also attend.

All times are Eastern Daylight Time

9:30 AM: The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing

10:00 AM: The President meets with senior advisors

11:00 AM: The President and the Vice President meet with General Odierno

11:15 AM: Briefing by Press Secretary Robert Gibbs WhiteHouse.gov/live

3:00 PM: The President holds a Cabinet meeting

5:20 PM: The President meets with Secretary of Education Duncan and Representative George Miller

8:20 PM: The President and the First Lady attend the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute’s 33rd Annual Awards Gala. The President delivers remarks. WhiteHouse.gov/live  (audio only)

WhiteHouse.gov/live  Indicates Events that will be livestreamed on WhiteHouse.gov/live.

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog

The President's Back to School Speech: "We Not Only Reach For Our Own Dreams, We Help Others Do the Same"
The President gives his second annual back to school speech, recounting his own experiences as a student and telling students to take responsibility for their educations and to look out for each other.

Encouraging Business Investment
Valerie Jarrett, Senior Advisor to the President, explains the President's agenda to promote economic recovery by helping businesses invest.

"You Don't Have to Throw Abuela's Cookbook out the Window"
First Lady Michelle Obama discusses the challenge of childhood obesity in America and the "Let's Move!" initiative at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute.

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