Central Perk: 18 nov. 2014

marți, 18 noiembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

France Calls for "New Deal" with "Real Money" Not Fake EU Promises
Added To My Basket of Miners Yesterday; "I Am My Own Central Banker"
Abe Makes "Grave Grave" Decision to Delay Tax Hike, Gambles on Snap Elections, Seeks "Better Ideas"

France Calls for "New Deal" with "Real Money" Not Fake EU Promises

Posted: 18 Nov 2014 10:18 PM PST

Juncker's €300 Billion Plan is "Funny Money"

I was rather amused yesterday with a post by Pater Tenebrarum on the Acting Man blog: EU Planning to Spend Money It Doesn't Have.

Pater is of course correct, and we will return to his article in a moment.

First, consider this headline from El Economista: France calls for a New Deal with 'real' investment: 300 Billion plan is "funny money".

€80 Billion in "Real Money" Requested

There is no need to translate excerpts from El Economista because the Financial Times has essentially the same story in France warns EU investment fund will flop without 'real money'.

France says the EU must inject up to €80bn of "real money" into the flagging European economy, warning that a big investment plan being drawn up in Brussels risks flopping if enough hard cash is not used to stimulate demand.

Jean-Claude Juncker, the new head of the European Commission, is next week expected to unveil a €300bn investment programme for the next three years aimed at boosting growth through infrastructure and other projects.

Emmanuel Macron, France's economy minister said "I'm convinced we need real money and we need to use it in an effective way."

He proposed a new independent entity to oversee what some are calling a "New Deal". The overseer would increase the fund's firepower by raising debt on the markets to fund investments in projects such as fibre optic networks and renewable energy. It would also set up panels of European experts to select projects after a competitive process.

EU officials briefed on Mr Juncker's plan said there was unlikely to be any new money. Instead, only existing public resources will be used, with the hope that this will attract private capital to bolster the fund.

Mr Macron insists the changes will win parliamentary approval. "We have 10 per cent unemployment, 25 per cent youth unemployment. What is the alternative solution? Spend more money that we don't have? It's not conceivable. It's a real leftwing package, it's a package for the outsiders, it is aimed at restoring equal opportunities."

Mr Macron spoke frankly of past "fake" reforms in France. He says "real" reforms are now the pre-requisite for a matching stimulus from European partners. "It is our job to create a momentum [for the stimulus package]. And our reform package is key because this is how we can be demanding in return."

"New Deal" With Overseer

It's important to note that everyone now recognizes Jean-Claude Juncker as a liar and charlatan. They just cannot say so in such a harsh manner. It would not be politically correct.

Yet, the notion that an overseer would do anything other than waste more money is preposterous. In fact the entire "New Deal" thesis is preposterous.

Instead of taking money and redistributing it, complete with overseers, I have a better idea.

Don't collect the taxes in the first place! Let people spend it on what they want, not wasteful government projects where some bureaucrat picks an inane pet project with zero economic merit (except to his buddy who gets the contract) and an overseer (and his staff) that takes a cut of the graft.

Pater said essentially the same thing in his conclusion ...

In reality, these spending programs are simply slightly more elaborate and sophisticated versions of Keynesian ditch digging. They make precisely as much sense. If European politicians really want to help to spur economic growth, they must bid adieu to the notion that economies can be "jump-started" by spending on undertakings that are mainly characterized by their inability to produce a return. What is instead needed is a repeal of the ubiquitous red tape hampering entrepreneurs, lower taxes and less government involvement in the market economy.

Top-down investment decrees are bound to do more harm than good in the end. The urge of local governments in Spain to build a new airport in every two-bit town during the boom has left the landscape dotted with a number of large mute witnesses attesting to this.

Multiplier Effect

There is no "overseer" on the planet who won't get in bed with politicians wanting to waste money on pet projects. An overseer will not "multiply" a damn thing except waste!

Nothing Times Nothing is Nothing

"Real Money" has to come from somewhere, via taxes. Overseers don't add "firepower" they take a piece of the pie, even IF they are well-intentioned.

The Financial Times described Macron, as France's new "youthful" economy minister, and "a relentlessly cheerful figure".

Macron replaced the "fiery leftist Arnaud Montebourg".

Will Macron provide as much reporting comedy as Montebourg? I highly doubt it, but he is off to a good start. And in his honor, I offer a musical tribute.

Nothing From Nothing

Link if video does not play: Billy Preston - Nothing From Nothing.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Added To My Basket of Miners Yesterday; "I Am My Own Central Banker"

Posted: 18 Nov 2014 12:59 PM PST

In the wake of plunging gold, people constantly asked when I would throw in the towel.

I was somewhat puzzled by these repeated questions as I said initially, and repeated along the way, my play was for the long term, and that I was holding for the duration.

During the most recent plunge, I responded "My only concern is when to add". I did so, yesterday.

"I Am My Own Central Banker"

I am not the only one who sees things this way. Marc Faber made similar comments in a recent video interview with Gold Broker.

Link if video does not play: Marc Faber, US dollar, & the Swiss Gold Initiative

Partial Transcript

Marc Faber: Everyone always says, I want to buy low and I want to sell high. So I think for me, of course I own a lot of gold, and I need to buy more to keep asset allocation between 25% in Real Estate, 25% in equities, 25% cash and bonds, and 25% gold. I need to buy more. So for me this is a very happy event. I don't like to buy gold at $1,900 like in 2011. I like to buy it here or lower.

Gold Broker: Do you think it will break under $1,000 like some people say?

Marc Faber: Look. The forecasting record of people is horrible, in particular, the forecasting record of the Federal Reserve. So, I don't know, maybe it will go below $1,000 but my sense is that it will not stay below $1,000. .... I would use the current weakness as a buying opportunity. ... I'm telling everybody, you as an investor, and me as an investor, we cannot trust the government. ... I am my own central banker. I keep my own physical gold. I do not trust anyone of these FCKs.

Gold Broker: [Asked Faber about the possibility of a stronger US$]

Marc Faber: [Laughed then replied] ... Of all the currencies I see in the world, there are only four that I like: Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium. Nothing else.

Gold Broker: How do you see the Swiss Gold Initiative? How does that affect the gold market?

Marc Faber: I do not think it will affect the gold market. I am in favor of the gold initiative. ... And I would suggest they [the Swiss National Bank] should hold their foreign reserves 100% in gold, not just 20%. But equally, I am saying to myself I am my own central banker. I own my own reserves, in gold.

Swiss Initiative in Perspective

For my take on the Swiss Initiative, please see Swiss Gold Referendum in Perspective.

Addendum

Marc Faber is author of one of the best investment books ever written: Tomorrow's Gold.

In spite of the title, the book is not really about "gold" but rather investment opportunities. It's my number 1 pick in investment reading. If you haven't yet read it, please do yourself a favor and pick up a copy.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Abe Makes "Grave Grave" Decision to Delay Tax Hike, Gambles on Snap Elections, Seeks "Better Ideas"

Posted: 18 Nov 2014 10:37 AM PST

In the wake of a completely "unexpected" Japanese return to recession, Shinzo Abe Delays Tax Rise and Gambles on Snap Election.

Rumours had been building in recent days that Mr Abe was preparing to dissolve parliament as he sought a new mandate to delay a second increase in consumption taxes, due next October. On Tuesday evening Mr Abe confirmed in a rousing 15-minute speech that he would go to the polls, challenging detractors to come up with better ideas to put Japan on a stronger growth trajectory.

Delaying the tax by 18 months was a "grave, grave" decision, Mr Abe said, but would be justified if Japan was to make a complete exit from the deflation it experienced for much of the past 15 years.

The weak data have caused many to question the multi-faceted revitalisation programme Mr Abe has pursued since reclaiming the premiership less than two years ago. So far, the most obvious effect of those efforts has been a collapse in the yen, which has boosted companies' profits but pushed up people's cost of living – a squeeze exacerbated by April's tax increase, from 5 per cent to 8 per cent.

Household incomes have risen a little, boosted by overtime and bonuses. But base wages slipped 2.6 per cent in September when adjusted for inflation, the government reported on Tuesday, extending a stretch of year-on-year falls from May 2013.

"The trend hasn't changed," said Yukio Edano, secretary-general of the main opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan, after Mr Abe's address. "Even though share prices have risen over the past two years, the lives of the public have not improved."

Not Improved or Gotten Worse?

With inflation-adjusted wages down 2.6%, and taxes up 3 percentage points from 5% to 8%, "lives of the public have not improved" is the understatement of the year for those in Japan not invested in the stock market.

In fact, those lives are 5.6% worse.

Better Ideas

Abe, the man who made lives 5.6% worse, challenges others to come up with "better ideas". Here are two of Abe's ideas.

Abe announced a tax hike to 10 per cent "without fail" in April 2017
Government would honour its longstanding pledge to balance its books – excluding debt-service payments – by the 2020 fiscal year

Abe's Deal

Abe plans to implement the same disastrous tax hike that just plunged Japan into recession. And whether or not Japan has improved by 2017, Abe will hike taxes again anyway.

Secondly, Japan's national debt, approaching 250% of GDP, will rise further until 2020. Indeed it will keep growing after that, because the promise to balance books excludes debt-payment service (interest on the national debt).

It seems to me it would be easy to come up with "better ideas", but one should always fear "better ideas" from any politician. My take: Any genuinely better ideas won't be implemented.

In the meantime, the Bank of Japan is buying over 100% of all Japan's debt issuance, so the debt (and interest on the debt) keeps piling up, while a demographically aging Japan requires more health-care services every year.

Expect the Unexpected

Each announcement like this strengthens the odds Japan is going to face a full-blown currency crisis within a couple years or less.

Rest assured, when the crisis does occur, it will be "unexpected" by nearly every economist on the planet.

For further discussion of how the "unexpected" happens, please see "Mystery of the Unexpected" Explained; Japan Slides Into Recession Yet Again; Blue Ribbon Panel in Review.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

How To Spend The Winter Living In A Camper Van
50 Nicaraguans Try To Save A Beached Whale
Leslie Smith's Ear Explodes At UFC 180
Meanwhile, All Over the World

How To Spend The Winter Living In A Camper Van

Posted: 18 Nov 2014 02:33 PM PST

These people in Yukon, Canada decided to insulate their camper van with hay and wait out the winter in there.

50 Nicaraguans Try To Save A Beached Whale

Posted: 18 Nov 2014 12:14 PM PST

This huge 18-meter (59 feet) humpback whale washed ashore Popoyo beach on Friday morning in the city of Tola. 50 local residents got together to try to get the whale back in the ocean but unfortunately it just wasn't enough.

Nicaragua's southern Pacific coast sees a lot of humpback whales and dolphins at this time of year. The average humpback whale weighs about 79,000 pounds.