Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Illinois Supreme Court Rules 2013 Pension Reform Law Unconstitutional; Chicago Teachers "Insulted by 7% Pay Hike Offer"
• Clean Sweep by UK Conservatives Masks Huge Rifts
• Establishment +233K Jobs; Household +192K Employment, Part-Time Employment +198K, Labor Force +166K

Illinois Supreme Court Rules 2013 Pension Reform Law Unconstitutional; Chicago Teachers "Insulted by 7% Pay Hike Offer" Posted: 08 May 2015 12:18 PM PDT Pension news out of Chicago keeps getting worse. In 2013, the Illinois legislature took a feeble stab at fixing some small aspects of the Illinois pension problem. The legislation, signed by then Governor Pat Quinn reduced the 3 percent compounded cost-of-living adjustment for retirees established in 1989, raised the retirement age for workers 45 and under, and imposed a limit on pensions for the highest-paid workers. That was a step in the right direction, albeit a small one. 2013 Pension Reform Unconstitutional Today we learn the Illinois Supreme Court Finds 2013 Pension Reform Law Unconstitutional. In a unanimous decision, the seven justices declared the law passed 18 months ago violates the state constitution because it would leave pension promises "diminished or impaired." "In enacting the provisions, the General Assembly overstepped the scope of its legislative power. This court is therefore obligated to declare those provisions invalid," Justice Lloyd Karmeier said in writing the court's opinion. Analysis State rep Rep. Elaine Nekritz, D-Northbrook hits the nail on the head with her analysis. "In its ruling today, the Supreme Court struck down not only the law but the core of that balance. Now our already dire pension problem will get that much worse and our options in striking that balance are limited. Our path forward from here is now much more difficult, and every direction will be more painful than the balance we struck in Senate Bill 1." Underfunding Just Got Worse On Tuesday, I noted the dire state of Illinois pensions on CNBC with Rick Santelli. (See Chicago Board of Education to Default on Bonds? Rick Santelli and Mish Discuss on CNBC). Here's a video clip. Illinois pension underfunding estimates range from $130 billion to $200 Billion. Those numbers assume two things. The 2013 Legislation was constitutional Pension plan assumptions of 7% or more will be met Assumption number 1 just went out the window. It is my strong belief that assumption number 2 will soon follow. Expect Negative Returns I expect returns in stocks and bonds over the next seven years to be negative! For further discussion as to why, please see Valuations: Maybe I am Crazy. Chicago Teachers 'Highly Insulted' Over Request for 7 Percent Pay Cut On top of the already mounting fiscal issues, and in spite of the fact the Chicago Board of Education has a $1.5 billion hole, Chicago Teachers 'Highly Insulted' Over Request for 7 Percent Pay Cut. The Chicago Board of Education wants teachers, social workers and other union members to take a 7 percent pay cut by paying their own pension contributions, according to the Chicago Teachers Union. CTU President Karen Lewis, who led her members to strike in 2012 for the first time in 25 years, accused CPS of being "broke on purpose" and of retaliating against the union for opposing the mayor in his recent re-election campaign. "Once again, the board has created a fiscal crisis in order to justify its continued attack on our classrooms and communities. By citing its so-called $1.5 billion deficit, the mayor is proposing a reduction in teaching staff which will result in larger class sizes and the loss of teaching positions," Lewis said in a press release. "The CTU is highly insulted," said union spokeswoman Stephanie Gadlin, who planned a press conference on Wednesday. Union Alternate Universe In what alternate universe is Karen Lewis living to believe this is a manufactured fiscal crisis? How is a state that has a $9 billion budget deficit hole going to bail out a single school district that is $1.5 billion in the hole? Give Taxpayers a Chance Today's ruling more than ever shows the need to pass a bankruptcy law. I have been pushing for that as has Governor Rauner. A May 5 Chicago Tribune editorial viewpoint said the same thing: Pass a Bankruptcy Law, Give Taxpayers a Chance. Many people view bankruptcy as a "nuclear option" for local governments in Illinois — a bad choice that will only bring disaster. Actually, if we do it the right way, it may be the best path for averting true financial devastation in communities statewide. Under federal law, state governments can't file for bankruptcy. Local governments can do so if their states give them permission. A bill now before the Illinois legislature would extend that permission to Illinois municipalities, most of which now can't seek protection under bankruptcy law. First, it would bring opposing sides to the table to have meaningful discussions about how to save the borrower, in this case the local government, from financial ruin. Second, the government could ask the bankruptcy court to modify labor contracts and order the parties to renegotiate the terms of collective bargaining agreements. Only a constitutional amendment can get this done right now (unless the Illinois Supreme Court declares otherwise in a pending case). [We saw the answer today] Finally, a law that puts bondholders first in line to get repaid would be a stroke of fairness that would help Illinois cities, school districts and other local governments avert a short-term solution like Detroit's. The bottom line is this. Illinois taxpayers deserve a fighting chance. For years elected officials have been avoiding their fiscal responsibility by applying Band-Aids instead of structural solutions. As a consequence, local governments across the state are close to broke, owing billions of dollars in unpaid bills, pensions and retiree health care liabilities. Per Household Liabilities Census QuickFacts shows there are 4,772,723 Illinois Households as of 2013. To be generous, let's round that up to 5 million. Let's also ignore my dire prediction of negative gains for seven years while placing the underfunding level at $200 billion. To make the funds actuarial sound, Illinois households need to come up with $40,000 each. If instead of assuming 7% returns one assumed 2% returns (yield on the 10-year bond), the hole is closer to $500 billion. And what if the stock market dives 30-40% over the next two years as I believe likely? Promises, Promises Image from Sun Times. Jan. 3, 2013 photo, a "Pension Promise" sign is seen as Illinois state union members and supporters rally in support for fair pension reform in the at the Illinois State Capitol in Springfield Ill. | AP file Dishonest Promise A promise is a promise, not an eternity. Marriage is a promise as well. And this promise was not even an honest one. Contracts made under coercion and threats are not even valid. But even valid contracts can be broken. That is precisely why we have bankruptcy law instead of debtor's prisons. In this case, corrupt politicians made bargains with corrupt union leaders at taxpayer expense. Unions further contributed to the mess with coercion and threats. Any sensible person knew these promises could not be met. Sue For Divorce The result of the unholy alliance between corrupt union leaders and corrupt politicians was a shotgun marriage made in hell. Taxpayers need to sue for divorce. The way to do that is bankruptcy court. I repeat Miracles Not Coming; Bankruptcy the Sensible Option. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Clean Sweep by UK Conservatives Masks Huge Rifts Posted: 08 May 2015 10:36 AM PDT The UK results are in. The pollsters could not have been more wrong. The expected result was a close vote and a hung parliament. Instead, Labour and the Liberal Democrats got pounded. Here are the Final Tallies from the Guardian. In a surge of nationalism that will likely lead to a call for another independence referendum, the Scotland National Party (SNP) won 56 seats of 59 seats. Nigel Farage did not win his seat, but he will be around. So will UKIP. It appears UKIP did not take votes from the conservatives, but rather its anti-immigration platform took votes from Labour. Major Outs Ed Milliband - Labor Leader - Resigned Nick Clegg - Liberal Democrat Party Leader and Deputy Prime Minister - Resigned Ed Balls - Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer, Labour - Not Reelected Jim Murphy - Scottish Labour Leader - Not Reelected Douglas Alexander - Labour Campaign Manager - Not Reelected  Vince Cable, Liberal Democrat Business Secretary - Not Reelected Danny Alexander, Liberal Democrat Treasury Chief Secretary - Not Reelected Liberal Democrats - Lost 49 of their 57 Seats Wow How could the polls have been so wrong? Clean Sweep Masks Huge Rifts The Financial Times reports David Cameron Sweeps to Victory in UK Election. David Cameron, UK prime minister, has swept back into Downing Street after a dramatic election victory, winning an outright majority for his centre-right Conservative party. Britain faces an unprecedented strain after triumph for leftwing Scottish nationalists who won all but a handful of Scotland's seats, becoming the third-largest party in Westminster just eight months after losing an independence referendum. The election result also sets the stage for a bruising fight over Britain's membership of the 28-member EU. Mr Cameron has promised to hold a referendum on continued EU membership and wants to win back more control over some issues from Brussels. Meanwhile, Mr Miliband told supporters he was stepping down because the Labour party needed an "open and honest debate about the right way forward". The centre-left party won 232 seats in a crushing defeat for Mr Miliband, whose campaign to make Britain more equal failed to capture the nation's imagination. Mr Clegg, who served as deputy prime minister in the coalition, stepped down as Lib Dem leader after his party suffered devastating losses across the country with the number of seats plunging from 57 to eight. He said the results were "immeasurably more crushing and unkind than I can ever have feared". Nigel Farage, the charismatic leader of the UK Independence party, quit after failing to win the South Thanet seat, despite the anti-EU party becoming the third-biggest in terms of national support. It won just one seat under Britain's first-past-the-post voting system. The Scottish National party won 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, up from six in the last election in 2010, sweeping senior Labour figures from office in the party's traditional heartland and setting the stage for a deeply divided parliament. "The Scottish lion has roared this morning across the country," said Alex Salmond, the party's former leader, who won the seat he was contesting and said it was "inconceivable" for any Westminster government to ignore the united voice of Scotland. Despite losing the Scottish independence referendum by 55-45 per cent last year, the SNP surge at this election could lead to further demands for a more federal settlement in the UK and add to pressure for a second referendum. Milliband Resigns The Guardian reports Ed Miliband Resigns as Labour Leader A devastated Ed Miliband has resigned as leader of the Labour party, saying he is truly sorry for the scale of the party's crushing defeat. In an emotional speech, Miliband said it was time for someone else to take over as leader, but called on the party to keep fighting, rather than give in to despair. "I take absolute and total responsibility for our defeat. I am so sorry for all of those colleagues who lost their seats," he said on Friday. Ending on a defiant note, he said: "This party has come back before and will come back again." Miliband's close staff are said to be deeply upset, struggling with the disappointment made deeper by opinion polls that led them to believe they had blocked Cameron from beating a clear path back to Downing Street. Miliband described the result as very difficult and disappointing, adding that the party in Scotland had been overwhelmed by a surge of nationalism. Some union leaders will be questioning whether they should break from the party, or at least demand major changes on electoral reform, Europe and immigration. Labour will be concerned over signs that Ukip is establishing a secure foothold in the north of England and Wales. In many respects Miliband had presented the agenda the unions wanted on issues such as workers' rights, tax and regulation of markets. But some union leaders will argue that the party's problems are deep-seated, dating back to the period of New Labour, when it lost touch with its working-class base, reflected in the surge of support for Ukip. The former Labour cabinet minister John Reid said: "There is no point changing the captain on the bridge if the ship is heading in the wrong direction." He said elections were not won or lost in a short campaign, but over years, calling for the party to return to issues of wealth creation, as well as wealth distribution. Goodbye Labour Any party that campaigns for higher taxes and wealth redistribution deserves to get trounced. And Labour did get trounced. Liberal Democrats all but vanished as UKIP became the third largest party with more votes than SNP. Yet, SNP has 56 seats, Liberal Democrats 8, and UKIP one. SNP still wants independence. And UKIP still wants out of the EU. The "clean sweep" by the Tories masks those problems. Meanwhile, pollsters have to be wondering "how the hell did we get this so wrong?" Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Establishment +233K Jobs; Household +192K Employment, Part-Time Employment +198K, Labor Force +166K Posted: 08 May 2015 08:41 AM PDT Initial Reaction Today we see a snap back from last month's report on both establishment jobs and household survey employment. Last month the household survey came in at an anemic 34,000. This month it is 192,000. Part-time employment went up by 198,000 meaning the entire increase in household survey employment was part-time. Finally, March nonfarm payrolls were revised lower from 126,000 to 85,000. This snap back is nowhere near as big as it appears at first glance. It will take at least another month to see if weakness in March was the start of something or an outlier. Interesting Details The Bloomberg Consensus jobs estimate was for 220,000 jobs, nearly right on target. The estimate range was a wide 180,000 to 335,000. There is lots of optimism from some economists. Bloomberg: The April employment report is mixed and probably won't be pulling forward expectations for a Fed rate hike. Nonfarm payroll growth came in about as expected, at a soft 223,000. But there is a substantial downward revision to what was already an extremely weak March, from 126,000 to 85,000. The good news is another downtick in the unemployment rate, to 5.4 percent from 5.5 percent and reflecting a favorable mix led by a rise in those finding jobs. Details of the payroll data show a very large 45,000 rise in what has been a depressed construction sector. This is one of the largest monthly gains of the recovery and may point to springtime acceleration for construction and new housing. Professional business services added a strong 62,000 jobs with temporary services up a solid 16,000 for its best gain of the year. You cannot play (at least you should not play the gain in construction both ways). If the weakness was weather-related then a snap back in construction should have been expected. Some but not all of the recent weakness was weather related. Construction probably was more affected than services. Let's take a look at all the key numbers. BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance Nonfarm Payroll: +233,000 - Establishment Survey Employment: +192,000 - Household Survey Unemployment: -26,000 - Household Survey Involuntary Part-Time Work: -125,000 - Household Survey Voluntary Part-Time Work: +323,000 - Household Survey Baseline Unemployment Rate: -0.1 at 5.4% - Household Survey U-6 unemployment: -0.1 to 10.8% - Household Survey Civilian Non-institutional Population: +186,000 Civilian Labor Force: +166,000 - Household Survey Not in Labor Force: +19,000 - Household Survey Participation Rate: +0.1 at 62.8 - Household Survey March 2015 Employment Report Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Report. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.4 percent. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, and construction. Mining employment continued to decline. Click on Any Chart in this Report to See a Sharper Image Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Employment Nonfarm Employment Change from Previous Month by Job Type Hours and Wages Average weekly hours of all private employees was flat at 34.5 hours. Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees declined by 0.1 hour to 33.3 hours. Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory private workers rose $0.02 at $20.90. Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory private service-providing employees rose $0.02 at $20.69. For discussion of income distribution, please see What's "Really" Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution? Birth Death Model Starting January 2014, I dropped the Birth/Death Model charts from this report. For those who follow the numbers, I retain this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid. Should anything interesting arise in the Birth/Death numbers, I will add the charts back. Table 15 BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment click on chart for sharper image Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is. Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation. The official unemployment rate is 5.4%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6. U-6 is much higher at 10.8%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years. Some of those dropping out of the labor force retired because they wanted to retire. The rest is disability fraud, forced retirement, discouraged workers, and kids moving back home because they cannot find a job. For further discussion of a more accurate measure of the unemployment rate, please see Gallup CEO Calls 5.6% Unemployment Rate "The Big Lie": What's a Realistic Unemployment Rate? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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Why Google Doesn’t Like to Talk About Updates Graywolf's SEO Blog

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Why Google Doesn’t Like to Talk About Updates Posted: 08 May 2015 09:13 AM PDT One of the recurring themes I’ve been seeing in the past few months, comes from web publishers trying to confirm when and where Google updates actually happen. This type of thing has been going on for years and it’s not a new topic, what is new is that Google is now confirming that there is a lot of contradictory information ... [Continue reading Why Google Doesn’t Like to Talk About Updates] The post Why Google Doesn’t Like to Talk About Updates appeared first on Graywolf's SEO Blog.

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Should I Rebrand and Redirect My Site? Should I Consolidate Multiple Sites/Brands? - Whiteboard Friday - Moz Blog

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Should I Rebrand and Redirect My Site? Should I Consolidate Multiple Sites/Brands? - Whiteboard Friday Posted on: Friday 08 May 2015 — 02:15 Posted by randfish Making changes to your brand is a huge step, and while it's sometimes the best path forward, it isn't one to be taken lightly. In today's Whiteboard Friday, Rand offers some guidance to marketers who are wondering whether a rebrand/redirect is right for them, and also those who are considering consolidating multiple sites under a single brand. For reference, here's a still of this week's whiteboard. Click on it to open a high resolution image in a new tab! To rebrand, or not to rebrand, that is the question Howdy, Moz fans, and welcome to another edition of Whiteboard Friday. Today we're going to chat a little bit about whether you should rebrand and consider redirecting your existing website or websites and whether you should potentially consolidate multiple websites and brands that you may be running. So we've talked before about redirection moves best practices. We've also talked about the splitting of link equity and domain authority and those kinds of things. But one of the questions that people have is, "Gosh, you know I have a website today and given the moves that Google has been making, that the social media world has been making, that content marketing has been making, I'm wondering whether I should potentially rebrand my site." Lots of people bought domains back in the day that were exact match domains or partial match domains or that they thought reflected a move of the web toward or away from less brand-centric stuff and toward more keyword matching, topic matching, intent matching kinds of things. Maybe you're reconsidering those moves and you want to know, "Hey, should I be thinking about making a change now?" That's what I'm here to answer. So this question to rebrand or not to re, it is tough because you know that when you do that rebrand, you will almost certainly take a traffic hit, and SEO is one of the biggest places where people typically take that traffic hit. Moz previously was at SEOmoz.org and moved to moz.com. We saw a dip in our traffic over about 3 to 4 months before it fully recovered, and I would say that dip was between 15% and 25% of our search traffic, depending on week to week. I'll link to a list of metrics that I put on my personal blog, Moz.com/rand, so that you can check those out if you'd like to see them. But it was a short recovery time for us. One of the questions that people always have is, "Well wait, did you lose rankings for SEO since SEO used to be in your domain name?" The answer is no. In fact, six months after the move, we were ranking higher for SEO related terms and phrases. Scenario A: Rebranding or redirecting scifitoysandgames.com So let's imagine that today you are running SciFiToysAndGames.com, which is right on the borderline. In my opinion, that's right on the borderline of barely tolerable. Like it could be brandable, but it's not great. I don't love the "sci-fi" in here, partially because of how the Syfy channel, the entity that broadcasts stuff on television has chosen to delineate their spelling, sci-fi can be misinterpreted as to how it's spelled. I don't love having to have "and" in a domain name. This is long. All sorts of stuff. Let's say you also own StarToys.com, but you haven't used it. Previously StarToys.com has been redirecting to SciFiToysAndGames.com, and you're thinking, "Well, man, is it the right time to make this move? Should I make this change now? Should I wait for the future?" How memorable or amplifiable is your current brand? Well, these are the questions that I would urge you to consider. How memorable and amplifiable is your current brand? That's something that if you are recognizing like, "Hey I think our brand name, in fact, is holding us back in search results and social media amplification, press, in blog mentions, in journalist links and these kinds of things," well, that's something serious to think about. Word of mouth too. Will you maintain your current brand name long term? So if you know that sometime in the next two, three, four, or five years you do want to move to StarToys, I would actually strongly urge you to do that right now, because the longer you wait, the longer it will take to build up the signals around the new domain and the more pain you'll potentially incur by having to keep branding this and working on this old brand name. So I would strongly urge you, if you know you're going to make the move eventually, make it today. Take the pain now, rather than more pain later. Can or have you tested brand preference with your target audience? I would urge you to find two different groups, one who are loyal customers today, people who know SciFiToysAndGames.com and have used it, and two, people who are potential customers, but aren't yet familiar with it. You don't need to do big sample-sizes. If you can get 5, 10, or 15 people either in a room or talk to them in person, you can try some web surveys, you can try using some social media ads like things on Facebook. I've seen some companies do some testing around this. Even buying potential PPC ads and seeing how click-through rates perform and sentiment and those kinds of things, that is a great way to help validate your ideas, especially if you're forced to bring data to a table by executives or other stakeholders. How much traffic would you need in one year to justify a URL move? The last thing I think about is imagine, and I want you to either imagine or even model this out, mathematically model it out. If your traffic growth rate -- so let's say you're growing at 10% year-over-year right now -- if that improved 1%, 5%, or 10% annually with a new brand name, would you make the move? So knowing that you might take a short-term hit, but then that your growth rate would be incrementally higher in years to come, how big would that growth rate need to be? I would say that, in general, if I were thinking about these two domains, granted this is a hard case because you don't know exactly how much more brandable or word-of-mouth-able or amplifiable your new one might be compared to your existing one. Well, gosh, my general thing here is if you think that's going to be a substantive percentage, say 5% plus, almost always it's worth it, because compound growth rate over a number of years will mean that you're winning big time. Remember that that growth rate is different that raw growth. If you can incrementally increase your growth rate, you get tremendously more traffic when you look back two, three, four, or five years later. Where does your current and future URL live on the domain/brand name spectrum? I also made this domain name, brand name spectrum, because I wanted to try and visualize crappiness of domain name, brand name to really good domain name, brand name. I wanted to give some examples and then extract out some elements so that maybe you can start to build on these things thematically as you're considering your own domains. So from awful, we go to tolerable, good, and great. So Science-Fi-Toys.net is obviously terrible. I've taken a contraction of the name and the actual one. It's got a .net. It's using hyphens. It's infinitely unmemorable up to what I think is tolerable -- SciFiToysAndGames.com. It's long. There are some questions about how type-in-able it is, how easy it is to type in. SciFiToys.com, which that's pretty good. SciFiToys, relatively short, concise. It still has the "sci-fi" in there, but it's a .com. We're getting better. All the way up to, I really love the name, StarToys. I think it's very brandable, very memorable. It's concise. It's easy to remember and type in. It has positive associations probably with most science fiction toy buyers who are familiar with at least "Star Wars" or "Star Trek." It's cool. It has some astronomy connotations too. Just a lot of good stuff going on with that domain name. Then, another one, Region-Data-API.com. That sucks. NeighborhoodInfo.com. Okay, at least I know what it is. Neighborhood is a really hard name to type because it is very hard for many people to spell and remember. It's long. I don't totally love it. I don't love the "info" connotation, which is generic-y. DistrictData.com has a nice, alliterative ring to it. But maybe we could do even better and actually there is a company, WalkScore.com, which I think is wonderfully brandable and memorable and really describes what it is without being too in your face about the generic brand of we have regional data about places. What if you're doing mobile apps? BestAndroidApps.com. You might say, "Why is that in awful?" The answer is two things. One, it's the length of the domain name and then the fact that you're actually using someone else's trademark in your name, which can be really risky. Especially if you start blowing up, getting big, Google might go and say, "Oh, do you have Android in your domain name? We'll take that please. Thank you very much." BestApps.io, in the tech world, it's very popular to use domains like .io or .ly. Unfortunately, I think once you venture outside of the high tech world, it's really tough to get people to remember that that is a domain name. If you put up a billboard that says "BestApps.com," a majority of people will go, "Oh, that's a website." But if you use .io, .ly, or one of the new domain names, .ninja, a lot of people won't even know to connect that up with, "Oh, they mean an Internet website that I can type into my browser or look for." So we have to remember that we sometimes live in a bubble. Outside of that bubble are a lot of people who, if it's not .com, questionable as to whether they're even going to know what it is. Remember outside of the U.S., country code domain names work equally well -- .co.uk, .ca, .co.za, wherever you are. InstallThis.com. Now we're getting better. Memorable, clear. Then all the way up to, I really like the name AppCritic.com. I have positive associations with like, "Oh year, restaurant critics, food critics, and movie critics, and this is an app critic. Great, that's very cool." What are the things that are in here? Well, stuff at this end of the spectrum tends to be generic, forgettable, hard to type in. It's long, brand-infringing, danger, danger, and sketchy sounding. It's hard to quantify what sketchy sounding is, but you know it when you see it. When you're reviewing domain names, you're looking for links, you're looking at things in the SERPs, you're like, "Hmm, I don't know about this one." Having that sixth sense is something that we all develop over time, so sketchy sounding not quite as scientific as I might want for a description, but powerful. On this end of the spectrum though, domain names and brand names tend to be unique, memorable, short. They use .com. Unfortunately, still the gold standard. Easy to type in, pronounceable. That's a powerful thing too, especially because of word of mouth. We suffered with that for a long time with SEOmoz because many people saw it and thought, "Oh, ShowMoz, COMoz, SeeMoz." It sucked. Have positive associations, like StarToys or WalkScore or AppCritic. They have these positive, pre-built-in associations psychologically that suggest something brandable. Scenario B: Consolidating two sites Scenario B, and then we'll get to the end, but scenario B is the question like, "Should I consolidate?" Let's say I'm running both of these today. Or more realistic and many times I see people like this, you're running AppCritic.com and StarToys.com, and you think, "Boy, these are pretty separate." But then you keep finding overlap between them. Your content tends to overlap, the audience tends to overlap. I find this with many, many folks who run multiple domains. How much audience and content overlap is there? So we've got to consider a few things. First off, that audience and content overlap. If you've got StarToys and AppCritic and the overlap is very thin, just that little, tiny piece in the middle there. The content doesn't overlap much, the audience doesn't overlap much. It probably doesn't make that much sense. But what if you're finding like, "Gosh, man, we're writing more and more about apps and tech and mobile and web stuff on StarToys, and we're writing more and more about other kinds of geeky, fun things on AppCritic. Slowly it feels like these audiences are merging." Well, now you might want to consider that consolidation. Is there potential for separate sales or exits? Second point of consideration, the potential for separate exits or sales. So if you know that you're going to sell AppCritic.com to someone in the future and you want to make sure that's separate from StarToys, you should keep them separate. If you think to yourself, "Gosh, I'd never sell one without the other. They're really part of the same company, brand, effort," well, I'd really consider that consolidation. Will you dilute marketing or branding efforts? Last point of positive consideration is dilution of marketing and branding efforts. Remember that you're going to be working on marketing. You're going to be working on branding. You're going to be working on growing traffic to these. When you split your efforts, unless you have two relatively large, separate teams, this is very, very hard to do at the same rate that it could be done if you combined those efforts. So another big point of consideration. That compound growth rate that we talked about, that's another big consideration with this. Is the topical focus out of context? What I don't recommend you consider and what has been unfortunately considered, by a lot of folks in the SEO-centric world in the past, is topical focus of the content. I actually am crossing this out. Not a big consideration. You might say to yourself, "But Rand, we talked about previously on Whiteboard Friday how I can have topical authority around toys and games that are related to science fiction stuff, and I can have topical authority related to mobile apps." My answer is if the content overlap is strong and the audience overlap is strong, you can do both on one domain. You can see many, many examples of this across the web, Moz being a great example where we talk about startups and technology and sometimes venture capital and team building and broad marketing and paid search marketing and organic search marketing and just a ton of topics, but all serving the same audience and content. Because that overlap is strong, we can be an authority in all of these realms. Same goes for any time you're considering these things. All right everyone, hope you've enjoyed this edition of Whiteboard Friday. I look forward to some great comments, and we'll see you again next week. take care. Video transcription by Speechpad.com Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

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​We Want Your Stories: Accepting MozCon Ignite Pitches Posted on: Thursday 07 May 2015 — 13:15 Posted by EricaMcGillivray We're thrilled to announce the addition of a networking and Ignite-style event for attendees on Tuesday night at MozCon. For years, you've asked us for more networking and relaxing times, and this is what we've dreamed up. But we need your help! We want you to share your stories, passions, and experiences. There are 16—yes, 16—speaking slots. Ignite-style talks are 5 minutes in length and slides auto-advance. That's right, there's no going back, and once it's done, it's done! In order to encourage relaxation, none of these talks will be about online marketing. Instead, we want to use this opportunity to get to know our fellow community members better. We want to hear about your passion projects, interests, and the things that fascinate you outside marketing. Tell us about how you spend weekends making support banners for your favorite soccer team or why you mentor high school students, for example. The basic details To submit, just fill out the form below. Please only submit one talk! We want the one you're most excited about. Talks cannot be about online marketing. They are only 5 minutes in length, so plan accordingly. If you are already speaking on the MozCon stage, you cannot pitch for this event. Submissions close on Sunday, May 17 at 5pm PDT. Selection decisions are final and will be made in late May / early June. All presentations must adhere to the MozCon Code of Conduct. You must attend MozCon, July 13-15, and the Tuesday night event in person, in Seattle. If selected, you will get the following 5 minutes on the Tuesday night stage to share with our audience. The event lasts from 7-10pm and will be at Benaroya Hall (where the Seattle Symphony plays). $300 off a regular priced ticket to MozCon. (If you already purchased yours, we'll issue a $300 refund for regular priced ticket or $100 for an early bird ticket. Discount not available for super early bird special.) We will work with you to hone your talk! Loading... As we want to ensure every single speaker feels both comfortable and gives their best talk possible, myself and Matt Roney are here to help you. We'll review your topic, settle on the title, walk through your presentation with you, and give you a tour of the stage earlier in the evening. While you do the great work, we're here to help in anyway possible. Unfortunately, we cannot provide travel coverage for these MozCon Ignite speaking slots. What makes a great pitch Focus on the five minute length. Be passionate about what you're speaking about. Tell us what's great about it. For extra credit, include links to videos of you doing public speaking. Follow the guidelines. Yes, the word counts are limited on purpose. Do not submit links to Google Docs, etc. for more information. Tricky and multiple submissions will be disqualified. We're all super-excited about these talks, and we can't wait to hear what you might talk about. Whether you want to tell us about how Frenchies are really English dogs or which coffee shop is the best in Seattle, this is going to be blast! The amazing Geraldine DeRuiter, known for her travel blogging and witty ways, will be emceeing this event. If you're still needing inspiration or a little confused about an Ignite talk, watch Geraldine's talk from a few years ago about sharing personal news online: Like our other speaker selections, we have a small committee at Moz running through these topics to get the best variety and fun possible. While we cannot vet your topic, feel free to ask questions in the comments. Everyone who submits an Ignite pitch will be informed either way. Best of luck! Haven't bought your MozCon ticket? Buy your ticket now Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

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Seth's Blog : Do you want our apathy?

Do you want our apathy?

Don't respond to emails.

Be defensive when I offer a suggestion when we meet.

Dumb down the products so they appeal to the lowest common denominator.

Treat me like I don't matter more than anyone else.

Put me on hold.

Don't miss me if I'm gone.

Maximize profit, not impact.

If you want me to be an apathetic bystander, it's not that difficult to accomplish.

Whatever.

       

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