vineri, 12 decembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Bill Gross: "New Natural Interest Rates is Zero or Negative"

Posted: 12 Dec 2014 02:43 PM PST

In an interview with Bloomberg's Tom Keene, Janus Capital's Bill Gross said that he left PIMCO 'in good hands.' Gross said, "…it's obviously an opportune situation at Janus. Running $2.5 billion is different than running $2 trillion, so it makes it more flexible for me."



link if video does not play: "New Natural Interest Rates is Zero or Negative"

Gross said that the Federal Reserve may become more "dovish" after oil price drop and would have to take lower prices "into consideration."

If he would to give advice to Stanley Fischer, Gross said, "the Fed as the central banker of the world basically has to worry about financial conditions not just in the United States but the world. And so next week in terms of their language and their stance going forward, they should be very cautious about any type of tightening indications."

Gross also told Keene:

  • Fed must adjust to drop in oil price
  • 'New natural' interest rate is 'zero percent or lower'
  • Very little liquidity in corporate bonds

Economic Illiteracy

In response to the above video, Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog pinged me with:

"Good grief, the world is brimming with economic illiteracy. If the "natural interest rate" were at zero or negative, we would all stop consuming altogether and would soon starve to death, because that would imply everything - even a slice of bread - one year hence would be worth more to us that one we can eat right now."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Is Gold Tracking Movements in the Yen, Euro, Anything?

Posted: 12 Dec 2014 10:05 AM PST

Recently, several people emailed me stating an observation that gold is directly correlated to movements in the Yen.

Let's investigate that idea with a couple of charts courtesy of Nick at SharelynxGold (Gold Charts "R" Us).

Nick has 1,000's of pages and over 10,000 charts on a subscription basis, but you can check out the site for free until December 14. He made the following charts for me on request.

Euro vs. Yen. Vs. Gold Priced in Dollars Since 2012



click on either chart for sharper image

Sure enough. Since 2012, Gold has been tracking the Yen with pretty amazing accuracy. But let's hone in on 2014.

Euro vs. Yen. Vs. Gold Priced in Dollars Since 2014


Since the beginning of the year, gold has tracked movements in the euro even better than the Yen. But look still closer. Since November, gold has been inversely correlated to both the Yen and the Euro.

This past year shows why these kinds of correlations are typically meaningless. Sometimes gold tracks the euro, sometimes the yen, sometimes the dollar, and sometimes inversely to all of those.

I see no fundamental reason for gold in dollars to track the Yen.

For whatever reason (or more likely, for no reason at all), the divergence since November (a shift to an inverse correlation from a positive one), might be the end of the previous trend.

Often, by the time people spot such trends, that trend is about to end.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

China Enters Fight Against ISIS

Posted: 12 Dec 2014 08:24 AM PST

To protect its oil interests in Iraq, it eventually had to come to this: China Offers to Help Iraq Defeat Isis.
China has offered to help Iraq defeat Sunni extremists with support for air strikes, according to Ibrahim Jafari, Iraq's foreign minister.

Wang Yi, Mr Jafari's Chinese counterpart, made the offer to help defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, known as Isis, when the two men met in New York at September's UN antiterrorism meeting, Mr Jafari said.

Any Chinese assistance would be outside the US-led coalition. "[Mr Wang] said, our policy does not allow us to get involved in the international coalition," Mr Jafari told the Financial Times in Tehran, where he was attending an anti-extremism conference earlier this week.

China is the largest foreign investor in Iraq's oil sector and stands to lose the billions its state-owned groups have ploughed into the country if the fields are lost to the insurgents. Sinopec operates in Kurdistan, while China National Petroleum Corp has interests in the giant Rumaila field near Basra and in Maysan province near the Iranian border. CNPC has already effectively abandoned oilfields it operated in Syria.

Global Times, the Chinese newspaper, reported this week that Isis crews were dismantling a small refinery, in which a Chinese company has invested, west of Baiji to scavenge equipment for Isis-controlled refineries in Mosul, Iraq's second-biggest city.

What Iraq needed now was more weapons, Mr Jafari said: "Our problem is with the supply of arms and weaponry." The Iraqi army was trained and equipped by US forces before 2011, but many of its US-supplied weapons have fallen into the hands of Isis.
US-Made Mess

There you have it. China volunteers to help clean up a 100% US-made mess.

It's not out of the goodness of their hearts, China's own interests are in play.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Julia Vins, Russian Powerlifter With a Doll-like Face

Posted: 12 Dec 2014 02:40 PM PST

18-Year old Julia Vins has got the face of a doll and the body of a hulk.























How to Avoid the Unrealistic Expectations SEOs Often Create - Whiteboard Friday

How to Avoid the Unrealistic Expectations SEOs Often Create - Whiteboard Friday


How to Avoid the Unrealistic Expectations SEOs Often Create - Whiteboard Friday

Posted: 11 Dec 2014 04:16 PM PST

Posted by randfish

With all the changes we've seen in the field of SEO in recent years, we need to think differently about how we pitch our work to others. If we don't, we run the risk of creating unreal expectations and disappointing our clients and companies. In today's Whiteboard Friday, Rand explains how to set expectations that will lead to excitement without the subsequent let-down.

For reference, here's a still of this week's whiteboard!

This Week's Whiteboard.

Video transcription

Howdy, Moz fans, and welcome to another edition of Whiteboard Friday. This week we're going to chat a little bit about the expectations that SEOs create and sometimes falsely create. It's not always our fault, but it is always our responsibility to fix the expectations that we create with our teams, our managers, our executives, and, if we're consultants, with our clients.

So here's the problem. This is a conversation that I see happen a lot of the time. Here's our friendly SEO guy over here, and he's telling his client, "Hey, if we can rank on page 1 for even 10% of all these terms that I've selected, we're going to drive a 500% increase in leads."

Here's the client over here, and she's thinking to herself, "That sounds amazing. 500% increase in leads, that's going to do wonderful things for my business. So let's invest in SEO. This is going to be great. We only have to get 10% of these keywords on there. I don't know anything about SEO, but that sounds totally possible." Six months later, after all sort of stymieing and challenging problems, here she is going, "You told me we'd increase our leads by 500%!"

There's the SEO saying, "Well yeah, but we have to get the rankings first, and we haven't done that yet. I said we'd get the leads once we got the rankings."

This kind of expectation and many others like it are a huge challenge. It is the case that modern SEO takes a lot of time to show results. Modern content marketing works the same way. You're not going to start producing blog posts or interactive content or big content pieces and 3 months from now go, "Well, we made 50 new content pieces, and thus our traffic has tripled."

That's not how it works. The problem here is that SEO just doesn't look like this anymore. It did, kind of, at one point. It really did.

We used to engage in an SEO contract. We'd make some changes to the existing pages, do some keyword targeting, some optimization, maybe fix things up that weren't SEO friendly on the site, get our link structure in order. Great. Do a little bit of link building to the right kinds of pages that we need on our site from the right kind of places. We'd get those rankings. Now we can easily prove the value of the search traffic that's coming through by looking at the keyword referrals in our analytics report, because keyword traffic is showing.

This process has been broken over the last five, six, seven years. But expectations have not caught up to where we are today. Modern SEO nowadays is really like this. You engage in that SEO contract, and then the SEO's job is to be much more than an SEO, because there are so many factors that influence modern search rankings and modern search algorithms that really a great SEO, in order to have impact, has to go, "All right, now we're going to start the audit."

The audit isn't going to look at which pages do you have on the site and what keywords do you want to match up and which ones do we need to fix, or just link structure or even things like schema. Well, let's look at the content and the user experience and the branding and the PR, and we'll check out your accessibility and speed and keyword targeting. We'll do some competitive analysis, etc. Dozens of things that we're going to potentially look at because all of them can impact SEO.

Yikes! Then, we're not done. We're going to determine which investments that we could possibly make into all of these things, almost all of which probably need some form of fixing. Some are more broken than others. Some we have an actual team that could go and fix them. Some of those teams have bandwidth and don't. Some of those projects have executives who will approve them or not. We're going to figure out which ones are possible, which ones are most likely to be done and actually drive ROI. Then we're going to work across teams and executives and people to get all those different things done, because one human being can't handle all of them unless we're talking about a very, very tiny site.

Then we're going to need to bolster a wide range of offsite signals, all of the things that we've talked about historically on Whiteboard Friday, everything from actual links to things around engagement to social media signals that correlate with those to PR and branding and voice and coverage.

Now, after months of waiting, if we've improved the right things, we'll start to see creeping up our rankings, and we'll be able to measure that from the traffic that pages receive. But we won't be able to say, "Well, specifically this page now ranks higher for this keyword, and that keyword now sends us this amount of traffic," because keyword not provided is taking away that data, making it very, very hard to see the value of visitors directly from search. That's very frustrating

This is the new SEO process. You might be asking yourself, "Given these immense challenges, who in the world is even going to invest in SEO anymore?" The answer is, well, people who for the last decade have made a fortune or made a living on SEO, people who are aware of the power that SEO can drive, people who are aware of the fact that search continues to grow massively, that the channel is still hugely valuable, that it drives direct revenue and value in far greater quantity than social media by itself or content marketing by itself without SEO as a channel. The people who are going to invest successfully, though, are those whose expectations are properly set.

Everybody else is going to get somewhere in here, and they're going to give up. They're going to fire their SEO. You know what one of the things that really nags at me is? Ruth Burr mentioned this on Twitter the other day. Ruth said, "When your plumber fails to fix your pipes, you don't assume that plumbing is a dead industry that no one should ever invest in. But when your SEO fails to get you rankings or traffic that you can measure, you assume all SEO is dead and all SEO is bad."

That sucks. That's a hard reality to live in, but it's the one that we do live in.

I do have a solution though, and the solution isn't just showing how this process works versus how old-school SEO works. It's to craft a timeline, an expectation timeline.

When you're signing a contract or when you're pitching a project, or when you're talking about, "Hey, this is what were going to do for SEO," try showing a timeline of the expectations. Instead of saying, "If we can rank on page one," say, "If we can complete our audit and fix the things we determine that need to be fixed and prioritize those fixes in the order we think they are, then we can make the right kinds of content investments, and then we can get the amplification and offsite signals that we need starting to appear and grow our engagement. Then we can expect great SEO results." Each one of these is contingent on the last one.

So six months later, your boss, your manger, or your client is going to say, "Hey, how did those content investments go?" You can say, "Well look, here's the content we've created, and this is how it's performing, and this is what we're going to do to change those performances." The expectation won't be, "Hey, you promised me great SEO." The promise was we're going to make these fixes, which we did, and we're going to complete that audit, which we did. Now we're working on these content investments, and here's how that's going. Then we're going to work on this, and then we're going to work on that.

This is a great way to show expectations and to create the right kind of mindset in people who are going to be investing in SEO. It's also a great way not to get yourself into hot water when you don't get that 500% increase 3 months or 6 months after you said we're going to start the SEO process.

All right everyone, I'd love to hear from you in the comments. Look forward to chatting it up and having a discussion about modern SEO and old-school SEO and expectations that clients and managers have got.

We will see you again, next week, for another edition of Whiteboard Friday. Take care.

Video transcription by Speechpad.com


Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

Seth's Blog : Go for a walk

Go for a walk

The best time is when you don't feel like it.

Going for a walk when you don't feel like it will change your mood, transform your posture and get you moving.

And if you don't feel like talking with someone, bring them with you on the walk.

       

More Recent Articles

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Don't want to get this email anymore? Click the link below to unsubscribe.



Email subscriptions powered by FeedBlitz, LLC, 365 Boston Post Rd, Suite 123, Sudbury, MA 01776, USA.