| Schoolgirls Aged 14-16 Leave France, UK, Germany for Syria to Join ISIS Jihad Posted: 29 Sep 2014 07:12 PM PDT As many as 63 seriously misguided teenaged girls from France, 40 from Germany, and 50 in the UK have left their countries to join ISIS in Syria. The Guardian has a fascinating report on Schoolgirl jihadis: the female Islamists leaving home to join Isis fighters. Hundreds of young women and girls are leaving their homes in western countries to join Islamic fighters in the Middle East, causing increasing concern among counter-terrorism investigators.
Girls as young as 14 or 15 are travelling mainly to Syria to marry jihadis, bear their children and join communities of fighters, with a small number taking up arms. Many are recruited via social media.
Women and girls appear to make up about 10% of those leaving Europe, North America and Australia to link up with jihadi groups, including Islamic State (Isis). France has the highest number of female jihadi recruits, with 63 in the region – about 25% of the total – and at least another 60 believed to be considering the move.
In most cases, women and girls appear to have left home to marry jihadis, drawn to the idea of supporting their "brother fighters" and having "jihadist children to continue the spread of Islam", said Louis Caprioli, former head of the French security agency Direction de la Surveillance du Territoire. "If their husband dies, they will be given adulation as the wife of a martyr."
Five people, including a sister and brother, were arrested in France earlier this month suspected of belonging to a ring in central France that specialised in recruiting young French women, according to Bernard Cazeneuve, the interior minister.
At least 40 women have left Germany to join Isis in Syria and Iraq in what appears to be a growing trend of teenagers becoming radicalised and travelling to the Middle East without their parents' permission.
"The youngest was 13-years-old," Hans-Georg Maassen, president of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, told the Rheinische Post. "Four underage women left with a romantic idea of jihad marriage and married young male fighters who they had got to know via the internet."
Karim Pakzad, of the French Institute of International and Strategic Relations, said some young women had "an almost romantic idea of war and warriors.
"There's a certain fascination even with the head and throat-cutting. It's an adventure."
Some British women and girls have posted pictures of themselves carrying AK-47s, grenades and in one case a severed head, as they pledge allegiance to Isis. But they are also tweeting pictures of food, restaurants and sunsets to present a positive picture of the life awaiting young women in an attempt to lure more from the UK.
Women already living amid Isis fighters used social media adeptly to portray Syria as a utopia and to attract foreign women to join their "sisterhood in the caliphate", she said. "The idea of living in the caliphate is a very positive and powerful one that these women hold dear to their heart."
But the reality was very different, she said. Both Bloom and Rolf Tophoven, director of Germany's Institute for Terrorism Research and Security Policy, said reports indicated that women had been raped, abused, sold into slavery or forced to marry. "[Isis] is a strictly Islamist, brutal movement ... the power, the leadership structure, are clearly a male domain," said Tophoven. Meet Jihadist Samra Kesinovic Samra Kesinovic is 16. Her school said she had been speaking out for 'holy war', writing 'I love al-Qaida' around the building. Photograph: Interpol This is an amazing story by the Guardian, complete with eight pictures and numerous stories of what family members try to do to get their kids back. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| US Bombed Wrong Refineries in Syria; Iran Seeks to Stop Oil Price Slide; Sanctions Won't Impede Arctic Drilling Posted: 29 Sep 2014 12:55 PM PDT US Bombed Wrong Refineries in SyriaOil is in the news in many countries in many ways. Let's take a look starting with a couple of paragraphs buried in the Financial Times report Barack Obama Admits US Underestimated Isis. Allied aircraft on Sunday struck three makeshift oil refineries in an area controlled by Isis in an expansion of attacks intended to damage the militant Islamist group's financial infrastructure.
Oil has proved crucial to financing Isis's operations, netting several million dollars a day. But the observatory said the refineries struck early on Sunday, in and around Raqqa, were owned by civilians and not Isis. A separate air strike on a plastics factory on the outskirts of Raqqa resulted in the death of a civilian, the group said. So, we blow up refineries owned and operated by civilians and it is buried in the news, with no hint of an apology or restitution offered to the refinery owners or to Syria. Russia Discovers Vast Pool of Oil Two days ago, Russia announced Arctic Well Drilled With Exxon Strikes Oil. Russia's state-run OAO Rosneft said a well drilled in the Kara Sea region of the Arctic Ocean with Exxon Mobil Corp. struck oil, showing the region has the potential to become one of the world's most important crude-producing areas.
The announcement was made by Igor Sechin, Rosneft's chief executive officer, who spent two days sailing on a Russian research ship to the drilling rig where the find was unveiled today. The well found about 1 billion barrels of oil and similar geology nearby means the surrounding area may hold more than the U.S. part of the Gulf or Mexico, he said.
The discovery sharpens the dispute between Russia and the U.S. over President Vladimir Putin's actions in Ukraine. The well was drilled before the Oct. 10 deadline Exxon was granted by the U.S. government under sanctions barring American companies from working in Russia's Arctic offshore. Rosneft and Exxon won't be able to do more drilling, putting the exploration and development of the area on hold despite the find announced today.
Output from the Kara Sea field could begin within five to seven years, Sechin said, adding the field discovered today would be named "Victory." Exxon was given until October 10 when other companies had to comply with sanctions immediately. Regardless of why that happened, sanctions are ridiculous. Instead of complaining that Exxon got favoritism, we should simply kill all the sanctions. Sanctions Won't Impede Arctic Drilling Bloomberg reports Russia Oil Chief Says Sanctions No Bar to Arctic Drilling. The most powerful man in Russia's oil industry says U.S. sanctions won't prevent the development of discoveries in the Arctic Ocean.
Igor Sechin, chief executive officer of state oil producer OAO Rosneft (ROSN) and a long-time ally of President Vladimir Putin, spent two days traveling by plane, ship and helicopter last week to announce a billion-barrel crude strike in the iceberg-prone Kara Sea region of Russia's Arctic Ocean.
"We will continue working no matter what," Sechin said in an interview on board a polar research vessel as he prepared to unveil the find he named Victory. "We will plan the work for next season. As I said, now we've drilled only the first structure -- at Universitetskaya. There are more than 30."
The development of Arctic oil reserves is one of President Putin's grandest ambitions. As Russia's existing fields in Siberia run dry, the country needs to find new reserves as it vies with the U.S. to be the world's largest oil and gas producer.
Sechin said the opportunity offered by today's oil discovery meant Rosneft would have no problem attracting investors and technology providers. Something he said was possible while respecting the company's existing agreement with Irving, Texas-based Exxon.
If Exxon is forced to leave the project, "of course we'll do it on our own and attract the necessary technologies and different partners who don't have limitations on cooperation," said Sechin, who featured in Bloomberg Markets 50 Most Influential list this year.
The well drilled in the Kara Sea found about 1 billion barrels of oil, Rosneft said. The crude is "super-light," the company said, meaning when it's refined it will produce a high proportion of gasoline and diesel. That's likely to make it more valuable than Russia's existing export grade, Urals.
The well was drilled before the Oct. 10 deadline Exxon was granted by the U.S. government under sanctions barring American companies from working in Russia's Arctic offshore. US Poised to Become World's Leading Liquid Petroleum ProducerBack in the States, the Financial Times reports US Poised to Become World's Leading Liquid Petroleum Producer. The US is overtaking Saudi Arabia to become the world's largest producer of liquid petroleum, in a sign of how its booming oil production has reshaped the energy sector.
US production of oil and related liquids such as ethane and propane was neck-and-neck with Saudi Arabia in June and again in August at about 11.5m barrels a day, according to the International Energy Agency, the watchdog backed by rich countries.
With US production continuing to boom, its output is set to exceed Saudi Arabia's this month or next for the first time since 1991.
Riyadh has stressed that the rise of the US should not detract from its own critical role in oil markets. It says it has the ability to increase its output by 2.5m b/d if needed to balance supply and demand.
Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz, Saudi Arabia's deputy oil minister, said earlier this month that the kingdom was the "only country with usable spare oil production capacity".
However, even Saudi officials do not deny that the rise of the US to become the world's largest petroleum producer – with an even greater lead if its biofuel output of about 1m b/d is included – has played a vital role in stabilising markets.
Brent crude hit its lowest level in more than two years last week at about $95.60 a barrel, down from a peak of over $125 a barrel early in 2012.
Over that period, the growth in US production of more than 3.5m b/d has almost equalled the entire increase in world oil supplies.
The US industry has been transformed by the shale revolution, with advances in the techniques of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling enabling the exploitation of oilfields, particularly in Texas and North Dakota, that were long considered uncommercial. Iran Urges Opec to Halt Oil Price SlideIn spite of turmoil in the Mideast and sanctions on Russia, oil prices are the lowest in two years. Mideast oil producers are not pleased with that outcome and Iran Urges Opec to Halt Oil Price Slide. Iran's oil minister called on Opec nations to work together to prevent a further slide in crude prices, highlighting the split among members of the cartel over how to react to the sharp drop in oil to two-year lows in recent weeks.
"Opec members should make efforts to offset their production to keep the prices from further instability," said Bijan Namdar Zanganeh on Friday, according to the Iranian oil ministry website, Shana.
Oversupply in the North Sea and Atlantic Basin has coincided with greater North American production.
Meanwhile, sustained output from Iraq and rising Libyan production – despite bloodshed in both countries – has weighed on the Brent price as has weaker demand from Europe and China.
This month, both the International Energy Agency – the wealthy nations' energy watchdog – and Opec lowered projections of crude demand next year.
This has fostered speculation of a cut in the oil cartel's output targets, in defence of the key $100 a barrel price level.
Estimates of fiscal breakeven oil prices for this year – the price at which the budget is balanced – vary across Gulf nations.
Iran's stands at about $130 a barrel while Saudi Arabia is at $89 and the UAE at $74, according to data compiled by Citigroup That oil prices are generally trending lower in spite of global turmoil says more about declining demand especially in China and Europe than it does about any increased production in the US. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Spain Manufacturers Warn of Another Slowdown; Consumption Recovery Ends, Retail Sales Contract, Price Deflation Sets In Posted: 29 Sep 2014 11:06 AM PDT The alleged recovery in Spain is already over. Retail sales are down month-over-month and year-over-year in July. August and September are both projected to be weak. Vial translation from El Economista, Manufacturers and Retailers Warn of Another Consumption Slowdown. After a slight recovery in the first months of the year, stagnation set in since June, according to almost all employers and associations of producers and distributors. The retail index INE already pointed to stagnation in June and a drop of 0.5% in July from a year earlier.
Although the decline in July from the previous month is a somewhat lower 0.2%, the situation appears to be worsening. August data will be released this week and forecast for both August and September are not positive.
Aurelio del Pino, president of Aces, the association of supermarket chains such as Carrefour, Eroski, Lidl Supercor or says in this line that "the data already published and forecasts that we confirm our claim that any increase in VAT would been disastrous for consumption."
It's something you notice the trade, but also the major manufacturers. "The recovery we have had in the first few months has been very weak," says Ignacio Larracoetxea president Promarca, an association that encompasses most of the brands leading food, beverage, household and healthcare.
And the sector is not the only well that is alerting the break. Last week, the Bank of Spain and warned that the latest information regarding the third quarter shows a "somewhat less expansive behavior of private demand" and domestic consumption, as recorded in his newsletter this September. In the case of household consumption, says survey indicators of households and retailers were in the average July and August at a lower level than the second quarter.
Reducing prices
To try to curb this stagnant consumption, or falling in recent months, large retail chains have not hesitated to continue lowering prices, even if it had to reduce their margins and also lower their figures fracturing. Price Deflation Sets InOn September 5, Dow Jones Business News reported Spanish Prices Firmly In Negative Territory, Deflation Beckons. INE, as the statistics institute is known, said Spain's consumer price index fell by 0.5% on the year in August, the biggest percentage decline since the country experienced a dip in prices in October last year. In July, prices had dropped by 0.3% after a few months of small increases.
Spain's European Union-harmonized consumer-price index, which is a slightly different measure than Spain's own, was also down 0.5%. That compares with a 0.4% decrease in July.
Spain emerged from more than two years of recession last summer, and is currently growing at one of the fastest rates in the eurozone--0.6% between March and June, and 1.2% over a 12-month period. Expect Slower Growth It's safe to say Spain's growth has slowed if retail sales slowed. A September 25th report shows Illegal Activities Boost Spain's GDP by $11 Bln. Spain's National Statistics Institute says money generated by drug trafficking, prostitution, smuggling and illegal gambling contributed some 9 billion euros ($11.4 billion) to the national economy last year.
The institute said Thursday that the country's gross domestic product is 26.2 billion euros larger — at 1.05 trillion euros — when estimates for illegal economic activities as well as money spent on investigation and research and military armament are included. Illegal activities represented 0.9 percent of total economic activity. So Spain GDP is up 1.2% and 0.9% of that growth is due to an accounting change that allows counting drugs, prostitution, and illegal activities as part of GDP. Debt and DeficitsBack in April, I noted Public Debt Threatens to Exceed 100% of GDP in 2014. And take a peek at headlines for Spain Misses budget Deficit Targets. Spain Unemployment Rate Youth Unemployment On the whole, there has not been much of a recovery, and what recovery there was, now appears to be over. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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