Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
John Major Sees 50% Chance UK Leaves EU, Sides With Cameron on Need for Immigration Reform Posted: 15 Nov 2014 02:30 PM PST Former UK Prime Minister John Major warns of Split Between UK and European Union. The split is blatantly obvious, but since we have a major new voice chiming in, let's take a look.Assessing the Odds Major thinks the odds are "just under 50%" now but "probability will rise" is Cameron cannot get reforms. That's a curious position because the odds Cameron secures a significant rule change are slim to none. "'Point of No Return" Cameron already received a "Point of No Return" Warning From Merkel. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, has said that she would not support any plans to change the freedom of movement rules that allow an unlimited number of EU migrants to live and work in the UK. br />Both Merkel and Cameron change their colors like Chameleons, but Merkel is far more adept. Regardless, it's Cameron who is on the hook (assuming he holds a vote). As part of his anemic promise to hold a referendum, Cameron first has to win reelection. Then he has to live up to his promise, whether or not he gets concessions from Merkel. Since those concessions are highly unlikely, does Major have the odds at 50-50 partly based on the chance there will not be a referendum? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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