Central Perk: 5 aug. 2012

duminică, 5 august 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Four Different Viewpoints on Employment; Reflections on Biased Reporting

Posted: 05 Aug 2012 10:26 PM PDT

The latest jobs report showing a Gain of 163,000 on the Establishment Survey, But a Loss of 195,000 Jobs on the Household Survey got me to thinking about trends in employment.

Much depends on your frame of reference. I can easily make numbers look good or bad, depending on how I want to present them.

click on any chart for sharper image

Civilian Employment Since 2011

That certainly looks quite robust, but is that the real sustainable trend?
Here is another view.

Civilian Employment Since 2007

Which trendline is correct?

Civilian Employment Since 2007 - Different Perspective

If I want to emphasize how poor the recovery has been, I just might use the above view.

Notice that actual employment in 2008 was over 146 million. Employment fell to 138 million and has only taken back half of previous losses, making this the worst recovery on record.

Civilian Employment Since 2011

Returning to the first chart, I just may want to emphasize that a trend change may be in the works.

Indeed, I do think that is the case based on collapsing new orders. I have made the case numerous times.

Reflections on Biased Reporting

The point of this post is not about trend changes, it is about presentation.

I interpret the news and that introduces bias.

Indeed, any commentary whatsoever about the news, by anyone, anywhere, anytime, introduces bias (intentional or not). The only way to not introduce bias is to present data with no comments, no trendlines, and no anecdotes.

Who would read Calculated Risk, Big Picture, Zero Hedge, Naked Capitalism, Automatic Earth, Acting Man, Advisor Perspectives, Chris Martenson, or any other site if they did not offer opinions?

What a dull blogging world it would be without opinions.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Zombified Cities Roundup: Detroit Becomes Dumping Ground for the Dead; Financial Urgency in Miami; Oakland Pension Time Bomb; How Pensions Crashed Stockton and San Bernardino

Posted: 05 Aug 2012 09:52 AM PDT

Space does not permit a complete discussion of zombified cities. Such a list would be in the many hundreds. Rather this post is about four cities in recent news that are among the walking dead. One is even a dumping ground for the dead.

Fourth Financial Urgency in Miami in Four years

The Huffington Post reports Miami Declares Financial Urgency For Fourth Year In A Row

Miami City Manager Johnny Martinez declared a state of financial urgency Friday for the fourth year in a row.

The move gives the city commission authority to restructure its existing contracts with police, general employee, and fire unions.

City commissioners agreed to not hike taxes in a budget meeting Thursday night, but instead will look to close a budget gap of tens of millions through union concessions. The $485 million budget must be balanced by September.

"The unions are not cooperating with the process," Mayor Tomas Regalado told the Miami Herald. "We need to have a balanced budget."

Martinez said in a statement that the city will be contacting union representatives to start up two weeks of negotiations. The declaration of urgency has likely incensed police and fire officials; according to Reuters, the latter group argued before city officials Thursday night that their pay has been cut 35 percent in the last 3 years already.

Click on link for a video.

Detroit Becomes Dumping Ground for the Dead

The Associated Press writes Vacant Detroit Becomes Dumping Ground for the Dead.

From the street, the two decomposing bodies were nearly invisible, concealed in an overgrown lot alongside worn-out car tires and a moldy sofa. The teenagers had been shot, stripped to their underwear and left on a deserted block.

They were just the latest victims of foul play whose remains went undiscovered for days after being hidden deep inside Detroit's vast urban wilderness - a crumbling wasteland rarely visited by outsiders and infrequently patrolled by police.

Abandoned and neglected parts of the city are quickly becoming dumping grounds for the dead - at least a dozen bodies in 12 months' time. And authorities acknowledge there's little they can do.

The bodies have been purposely hidden or discarded in alleys, fields, vacant houses, abandoned garages and even a canal. Seven of the victims are believed to have been slain outside Detroit and then dumped within the city.

"Detroit is a dumping ground for a lot of stuff," said Margaret Dewar, professor of urban and regional planning at the University of Michigan. "There is no one to watch. There is no capacity to enforce laws about dumping. There is a perception you can dump and no one will report it."

How Pensions Crashed Stockton, San Bernardino

Bloomberg reports Police Chief's $204,000 Pension Shows How Cities Crashed

Stockton, California, Police Chief Tom Morris was supposed to bring stability to law enforcement when he was appointed to the job four years ago.

He lasted eight months and left the now-bankrupt city at age 52 with an annual pension that pays more than $204,000 -- the third of four chiefs who stayed in the position for less than three years and retired with an average of 92 percent of their final salaries.

San Bernardino, a city of 209,000 about 60 miles (100 kilometers) east of Los Angeles, is typical of the phenomenon. Its city council voted July 18 to approve an emergency bankruptcy filing, about six years after the panel unanimously lowered the retirement age for public-safety workers to 50 from 55.

The council acted in August 2006 even though Aon Plc, the city's risk-management consultant, had warned it that such a change would add millions of dollars to San Bernardino's long- term pension costs. In the fiscal year that ended in June, pensions consumed 13 percent of the city's general fund, up from 9 percent in fiscal 2007.

"I knew it was going to be costly in the long run," San Bernardino City Councilwoman Wendy McCammack said of the lower retirement age. "However, this city is one of the toughest to police. In order to attract and retain the kind of officers that it takes to police a city like this, that was a benefit that we had to negotiate."

Notice the complete ineptitude of San Bernardino City Councilwoman Wendy McCammack. She was willing to bankrupt San Bernardino by making untenable pension promises to "attract and retain" police officers. Did it work?

Pension Time Bomb Explodes in Oakland

The San Francisco Chronicle reports Oakland's financial time bomb: pensions

It was 1976 when the city of Oakland realized it had a major problem on its hands: A pension created 25 years earlier to benefit police officers, firefighters and their widows was proving too costly to afford.

So the city closed the plan to new employees and later passed a parcel tax to pay for the pension. Yet today, that pension remains the source of one of Oakland's biggest headaches.

It's a generous plan that awards its retirees and widows - who now number 1,086 - raises to match up to two-thirds of the pay of the current-day workforce. But the city's costs ballooned because it never adequately contributed to the pension fund, relied on borrowing for years to give itself holidays from pension payments and watched investments go south. The result of the borrowing is that the pension, known as the Police and Fire Retirement System, has cost Oakland taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars more than it should have. In 2010, City Auditor Courtney Ruby found Oakland spent $250 million more on the pension than it would have if the city had simply paid into the pension - and that was just for one of its bond deals.

Last month, the majority of the Oakland City Council, at the urging of Mayor Jean Quan's administration, voted to borrow money once again to cover the pension bill - $210 million in new pension bonds that will cost another $105 million in interest over the next 14 years. But the loan will allow the city to avoid paying for the pension from its general fund for four years. If the city hadn't borrowed the money, it would have been forced to take $38.5 million from its roughly $400 million general fund to pay for the pension this year. Such a move would have required deep cuts to city services, which already have taken a hit due to the slumping economy, state budget cuts and redevelopment shutdown.

Wipe out parks, libraries

"If we had to pay this money this year and the next couple of years, the cuts would imperil our Police Department as well as completely wipe out our libraries and parks," said Councilwoman Pat Kernighan. "In a few years, we're going to be in a better position to make the payments."

Complete Idiocy by Councilwoman Pat Kernighan

As stupid as the decision was by San Bernardino City Councilwoman (and it was incredibly stupid), the position of Oakland Councilwoman Pat Kernighan is much worse. Kernighan learned nothing from Stockton, San Bernardino, Miami, or Detroit.

Nor did Kernighan even learn anything from prior history in Oakland. Borrowing has already wrecked Oakland and this complete dunce wants to do more of it.

The only solution that has a chance is for Oakland to declare bankruptcy. Instead Kernighan voted to kick the can down the road one more time.

Oakland Headed for Bankruptcy

Oakland will not be in a better position in a few years. I confidently predict bankruptcy.

Bankruptcy is the only method cities can use to correct absurd pension promises made to police, fire, and teachers' unions.

Advice to Unions

My beef is not with those lowest on the totem pole and their small $15,000 pensions.
Instead, I propose those with the largest pensions should take the bulk of the hit.

Police Chief Tom Morris lasted 8 months and will now receive a $204,000 annual pension. Morris deserves nothing, zero.

My advice to unions is to negotiate with cities in advance of bankruptcy or some judge will come along and do something like slash pensions across the board by 50% as happened in Rhode Island.

Across the board compromises give those like Morris far more than they deserve at the expense of hundreds of workers getting pensions barely enough to live on.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

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Winners of #MozCation 2012

Posted: 04 Aug 2012 10:14 AM PDT

Posted by jennita

Whoa. Ever have one of those times where your expectations are completely blown out of the water? Well that's what happened during this year's nomination for a MozCation.

Wait, wait, wait, before I get too far ahead of myself, I should explain what it is I'm talking about. Last month, we invited people from around the world to nominate their city for an SEOmoz Meetup.

Once again, we were completely blown away by the way local communities were able to come together so quickly and show us how excited they were for us to come. Some people built and designed websites and Twitter accounts, others created videos or blog posts, and a couple even made infographics.

You've all proven to us once again that our community rocks and that we need to work hard to keep up with all of you! I know, I know you want me to quit blabbing so you can see which cities we picked this year. Please know that it was a really tough decision, and we were overwhelmed by the amazing content created. Now, let's get down to business!

And The Winners Are...

Watch the video with Rand below to find out which cities we'll be visiting for a MozCation this year. :)

Note: Please note, that not all the cities nominated were listed in the video. We just took a quick sampling of the cities submitted and listed them.

Yay! Ok so I won't give it away, I want you to watch the video. :) But congratulations to the cities we'll be visiting!

All The 2012 Nominations

Please be sure to check out all the amazing nominations we had this year. We only gave folks two weeks to put something together, and as you can see, the nominations were absolutely amazing! A huge thank you to all the cities who participated!

Niagra Falls, Canada

Title: MozCation in Niagara Falls

Nominated by: @GatewayMarriott

Manila, Philippines

Title: 100 Reasons To Choose Manila For The Next SEOmoz Family MozCation

Nominated by: @seoteky

Dallas, TX

Title: Dallas MozCation

Nominated by: @malachiii

Chandgarh, India

Title: Mozcation Chandgarh

Nominated by: @Weexcel

East of England, UK

Title: MozCation 2012 East of England

Nominated by: @chrisgreen87

Milwaukee, WI

Title: MozCation in Milwaukee

Nominated by: @regalcreative

Jerusalem, Israel

Title: mozcation 2012 in jerusalem, israel – it’s what g-d would want

Nominated by: @miriamschwab

Minneapolis, MN

Title: 12 MIGHTY MOTIVES FOR A MINNESOTA MOZCATION

Nominated by: @JLBraaten

Albany, NY

Title: Bring SEOmoz to Albany, NY on a MOZCATION!

Nominated by: @josephschaefer

Cape Town, South Africa

Title: Moz Cape Town

Nominated by: @andrevankets

Helsinki, Finland

Title: Nominate Helsinki for a Moz Meetup

Nominated by: @Tulos_Helsinki

Albuquerque, NM

Title: MozCation in Albuquerque for 2012

Nominated by: @MozCationABQ

Karachi, Pakistan

Title: #Mozcation in Pakistan - A Solid Justification

Nominated by: @mmhemani

Various Cities, Italy

Title: MozCation Italy

Nominated by: @gfiorelli1

Denver, CO

Title: Help Denver Become the Destination for the SEOmoz Mozcation

Nominated by: @location3

Manchester

Title: MozCation Manchester

Nominated by: @alexmoss

Indianapolis, IN

Title: SEOmoz MozCation in Beautiful Indianapolis!

Nominated by: @stephenshattuck

Portsmouth, NH

Title: I nominate Portsmouth, NH

Nominated by: various (actually there were tons of individual nominations!)

Thank You!

I just wanted to send another big thank you to everyone who participated in MozCation. We look forward to the upcoming Meetups, and we really hope that everyone who participated this year will try again next year! Also, every time we do this, we get to find out where all our community is. It helps us to know where we might want to visit in the future for other types of events as well.

We hope to see you all soon, and please if you weren't chosen this time, we'll be holding more events next year! <3

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Seth's Blog : Time frames

Time frames

The giant multinational can start a project knowing that it will take years to pay off.

The struggling freelancer might be willing to invest a few days.

Venture capital, particularly for web companies, mostly changes the time horizon. It means that the bootstrapping entrepreneur can make longer term investments, building assets that scale instead of cashing them in daily.

Goverments do some of their best work when they take on projects with time horizons that would frighten away even large companies. You're going to wait how long for that bridge to pay off?

One interesting side effect of going public is that companies that use venture capital to lengthen their time horizon suddenly (in just one day) have to switch gears to a time horizon that's measured in days or quarters.

And one useful note: if you're having trouble selling/working with or for an organization, it might be because you don't understand each other's time frame.