Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Rasmussen Poll: 57% Okay With Government Shutdown If It Leads to Deeper Budget Cuts
- BLS Jobs Report: Nonfarm Payroll +216,000, Unemployment Rate 8.8%; Thoughts on the Jobs Report
- Home Buyers' Strike in Australia; Bubble Set to Burst; Steve Keen on the Oz Bubble; What You Can Do
Rasmussen Poll: 57% Okay With Government Shutdown If It Leads to Deeper Budget Cuts Posted: 01 Apr 2011 10:54 AM PDT A Rasmussen poll says 57% Okay With Government Shutdown If It Leads to Deeper Budget Cuts A majority of voters are fine with a partial shutdown of the federal government if that's what it takes to get deeper cuts in federal government spending.I happen to think a government shutdown would be a good thing. People would find out the world will not end as Tim Geithner and the Obama administration seem to believe. Nor will the bond market fall apart as some at the Fed think. However, it is ridiculous for Republicans to be in this situation over a measly $30 billion, less than 1% of the budget. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
BLS Jobs Report: Nonfarm Payroll +216,000, Unemployment Rate 8.8%; Thoughts on the Jobs Report Posted: 01 Apr 2011 08:27 AM PDT Thoughts on the Jobs Report This was a second solid jobs report, not as measured by the typical recovery, but the best back-to-back reports we have seen for years. At the current pace, the unemployment number would ordinarily drop, but not fast. However, many of those millions who dropped out of the workforce could start looking if they think jobs may be out there. Should that happen, the unemployment rate could rise, even if the economy adds jobs at this pace. It is very questionable if this pace of jobs keeps up. Bear in mind that the unemployment rate varies in accordance with the "household survey" not the reported headline jobs number. In the last year, the civilian population rose by 1,841,000. Yet the labor force dropped by 489,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 2,330,000. In January alone, a whopping 319,000 people dropped out of the workforce. In February (last months' report) another 87,000 people dropped out of the labor force. This month 11,000 people dropped out of the labor force. Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be over 11%. Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) March 2011 Employment Report. Nonfarm Payroll Employment - Seasonally Adjusted Changes Nonfarm Payroll Employment - Seasonally Adjusted Total Notice that employment is lower than it was 10 years ago. Establishment Data
BLS Birth-Death Model Black Box Do not add or subtract the Birth-Death numbers from the reported headline totals. It does not work that way. Birth Death Model Revisions 2011 (April) Do NOT subtract 117,000 from the headline number. That is statistically invalid. Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be over 11%.
click on chart for sharper image There are now 8,433,000 workers whose hours may rise before those companies start hiring more workers. Note that the number of people working part time for economic reasons rose by 93,000 in the last month. Table A-15 Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is. click on chart for sharper image Distorted Statistics Given the total distortions of reality with respect to not counting people who allegedly dropped out of the work force, it is hard to discuss the numbers. The official unemployment rate is 8.8%. However, if you start counting all the people that want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6. While the "official" unemployment rate is an unacceptable 8.8%, U-6 is much higher at 15.7%. Things are much worse than the reported numbers would have you believe. That said, this was a solid jobs report, not as measured by the typical recovery, but one of the better reports we have seen for years. On the negative side, wages are not keeping up with the CPI, wage growth is skewed to the top end, and full time jobs are hard to come by. At the current pace, the unemployment number would ordinarily drop, but not fast. However, many of those millions who dropped out of the workforce could start looking if they think jobs may be out there. Should that happen, the unemployment rate could rise, even if the economy adds jobs at this pace. It is very questionable if this pace of jobs keeps up. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Home Buyers' Strike in Australia; Bubble Set to Burst; Steve Keen on the Oz Bubble; What You Can Do Posted: 01 Apr 2011 12:39 AM PDT A huge number of readers from down under have sent emails regarding a property buyers' strike in Australia. For example, please consider this email from Bron Suchecki at the Perth Mint. Bron writes ... Hello Mish,Steve Keen Interview on the Property Bubble Link in case the above video does not display: http://www.brokernews.com.au/tv/the-big-story/the-big-story-is-the-bubble-set-to-burst/963/82509 Homebuyers Strike Back ABC News reports The Homebuyer Strikes Back A tiny land tax lobby group has sparked a storm by suggesting first home buyers go on strike to force property prices lower.Failed Ownership Society Promotion Steve Keen talked about the Home Buyers' Strike in a couple of posts including Another Getup idea–direct attack on the FHOS GetUp allows a certain number of votes per email address registration and many people, including Steve Keen, exhausted their votes in favor of the "buyers' strike idea". I think those buyers' strike vote are somewhat wasted. Buyers will do what they will do and buyers are already on strike. From my way of thinking it would be better to pressure the Australian government to abandon its ludicrous first time home buyers' grant. That "Home Buyers' Grant" program sounds very much like President Bush's failed "Ownership Society". Simply put, government has no business promoting personal choices unless it purposely wants to create bubbles. If you have votes to spare (or if you have not yet registered) I suggest you cast every one of your votes to Stopping the First Home Buyers Grant. It's time to end the insanity. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
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