duminică, 20 ianuarie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Crisis in Madrid Update; Plan "A" is Sgt. Schultz Defense, No Plan "B" Yet

Posted: 20 Jan 2013 03:53 PM PST

As noted on Saturday Massive Fraud in Spain Threatens Entire Government of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy; Protestors in Madrid Shout "Resignation".

A wave of new articles has appeared, mostly from Spain, but a few this time in English.

Envelopes Stuffed With Cash

El Pais in English reports Former PP treasurer "handed out envelopes with cash" to party officials
Despite strenuous efforts by the ruling Popular Party (PP) to distance itself from Luis Bárcenas, who is in trouble with the law over corruption allegations, the party's former treasurer continues to maintain an office in the PP headquarters in Madrid even after having left the group, party sources said Friday.

Bárcenas is implicated in the Gürtel kickbacks-for-contracts scandal, which first broke in 2008. Under an ongoing investigation into the corruption ring, it emerged earlier this week that Bárcenas had a bank account in Switzerland in which he had deposited as much as 22 million euros. He also took advantage of a tax amnesty in place last year to declare 10 million euros, which had previously been kept hidden from the tax authorities.

The PP sources said that despite stepping down as a senator and leaving the party in April 2010, Bárcenas has continued to appear in its Madrid headquarters, seeking help from PP officials to find a solution to the legal quagmire in which he finds himself. He was last seen in the building – located in Génova Street in the center of Madrid – as recently as Wednesday of this week.

Bárcenas, who was treasurer of the PP for 20 years, faces possible charges of money-laundering and tax evasion.

The sources said he still has a secretary in the building, who is on the payroll of the PP, and who makes telephone calls in his name as if he were still in the employ of the party.
Socialist Party to Lodge Criminal Complaint

El Pais in English reports Socialist Party to lodge criminal complaint over illicit PP bonuses.

Socialist Party leader Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba announced on Sunday that his opposition group will file a criminal complaint before the High Court asking for an investigation into the alleged payments of bonuses from secret accounts held by the Popular Party (PP) to its officials.

In the wake of the discovery that the PP's former treasurer, Luis Bárcenas, had 22 million euros in a Swiss account, Rubalcaba also said that he will call for a parliamentary investigation into the matter and demanded that both Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and Finance Minister Cristóbal Montoro appear before Congress.

For her part, PP secretary general María Dolores de Cospedal on Sunday went on the counterattack against the Socialists, saying that many past politicians in Castilla-La Mancha, when it was governed by the opposition party, made a lot of money then.

The scandal inside the party is expected to come to a head on Monday when Rajoy presides over the PP national executive committee meeting.
Counterattack

Got that?

The counterattack by the PP Secretary General is a claim the opposition party was equally fraudulent.

That's a charge I easily believe. Moreover, here is some supporting evidence.

Corruption allegations Surround Catalan Pujol Clan

From El Pais, also in English, Corruption allegations surround Catalan Pujol clan.
After many years of scrutiny and investigations, the Pujol-Ferrusola family of Catalonia — whose patriarch is a former regional premier and one of the region's biggest political powerbrokers — has always been able to escape when allegations of impropriety and corruption have surfaced.

"For many years they have looked into my affairs and photographed everything but have never been able to pin anything on me," said Jordi Pujol, the former leader of CDC, part of the CiU nationalist bloc, back in 1995.

But now, after a police report surfaced late last year suggesting that Pujol and his family may have secret Swiss bank accounts, along with the current premier and CiU leader, Artur Mas, investigators have taken a wider look at his sons' activities.

On Thursday, the former girlfriend of Jordi Pujol Ferrusola testified before the High Court that she had helped him transport bags of 500 euro notes across the border into Andorra in the trunk of his car.

Bid rigging

Oriol Pujol, one of seven sons and the current secretary general of the CDC, is also being targeted in an ongoing investigation into bid fixing for ITV vehicle inspection stations in Catalonia. Last September, Barcelona Judge Silvia López Mejía wrote in a ruling that there were "rational indications" that Pujol had played a key part in the conspiracy.

The elder Pujol said these allegations against him and his family "are hurting the country."

Jordi Pujol Ferrusola also reportedly received some lucrative contracts from the regional government. The first in 1991, when Natural Stone, a firm that specialized in quarry rock, won a 600,000-euro contract to supply marble for the floors at Barcelona's El Prat airport. Pujol Ferrusola and his then wife Mercè Gironés, were respectively vice president and administrator at an affiliate, Natural Stone Marketing Centre.
Rajoy Implicated

Why stop there? Translated from El Pais in Spanish, please consider Accusations Unleash Gale.
In a particularly sensitive time for the government of Mariano Rajoy, after a year of deep cuts in spending on essential public services and many promises of austerity and transparency to improve the image of politicians, research advances Gürtel case , with discovery of secret accounts extesorero of this training have been a blow to the credibility of the PP.

In a particularly sensitive time for the government of Mariano Rajoy, after a year of deep cuts in spending on essential public services and many promises of austerity and transparency to improve the image of politicians, research advances Gürtel case , with discovery of secret accounts extesorero of this training have been a blow to the credibility of the PP.

The list of recipients of the alleged secret bonuses is opaque.

The treasury of the party, according to the environment and Lapuerta Barcenas, kept a list of the perceiver jealous of those amounts, which had two seats always fixed as beneficiaries of accessories: the president and the secretary general of the party. Sometimes benefited charges unrelated to those posts. Francisco Alvarez-Cascos, Angel Acebes and Javier Arenas, general exsecretarios PP, denied having received the supplement in its early or have known.

In defense of Rajoy, party supplies contributed several data: "Rajoy is a man of law, property registrar, and does not require or accept an envelope of money monthly. Moreover, Rajoy has been secretary of electoral action and never met with Correa. Maybe four party gulfs have maintained such practices or have been money, but not the current president and the current secretary general. "
Rajoy Silent, No Plan B

El Pais in Spanish reports Rajoy Silent, No Plan B.
"We have no plan B," admits a minister for the scandals are ruining his political agenda and his speech, with no reaction. On Friday, the ministers discussed among themselves, before and after the Council, the revelations about Barcenas , some moved to other of its decision to deny they had taken, but the meeting proceeded as if nothing had happened. Rajoy did not say anything.
In a particularly difficult translation to follow, El Pais reports The 'case Barcenas' reopens the war in the PP
Several national leaders of the PP have told this newspaper, on this line, that this should be seen as a move by a desperate former treasurer to blackmail Rajoy at a particularly sensitive time for his legal situation.

Rajoy yesterday launched several clear messages and outright refusal to [discuss] the former treasurer's performance.

PP leaders are considering the option of having this operation is part of a move to the highest level possible to try to defuse bombs that Barcenas has in his possession, a controlled explosion that saves Cospedal splash [Maria Dolores de Cospedal is the PP general secretary], presented both as ignorant of the illegal actions of Barcenas and, of course, as that stopped as soon as they knew.

Cospedal , in several radio interviews, stressed these days clear that she did not consisted payments and illegal financing stage. In that line impacted when on Friday, at a meeting of the PP in Almería, warned that such complaints before, "each must hold your candle stick". These statements have not sit well in the environments of the previous general secretaries, with whom Cospedal not maintain good tune. And no doubt the close confidence remains Cospedal Rajoy, so its performance is understood by its interest in protecting his head and let his image clean.
Sgt. Schultz Defense

Clearly Plan A is "I See Nothing, I hear Nothing, I Know Nothing". I have a couple of tributes in honor of the Sgt. Schultz Defense.

"I See Nothing"



I see nothing, I was not here, I did not even get up this morning"

link if Youtube video does not play: I see Nothing

"I Know Nothing"



I have no idea whether or not this defense will work. However, a massive effort by Rajoy's administration to sweep this all under the rug using the Sgt. Schultz defense is clearly underway.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Greece Law-and-Order Problem Escalates; Bomb Explodes at Athens Mall; AK-47 Shots Hit Ruling Party Headquarters; Worst Not Over

Posted: 20 Jan 2013 01:24 PM PST

Since December, radical groups staged coordinated arson attacks at the homes of five Greek journalists and fire-bombed the brother of a government spokesman.

Six days ago, nine shots hit the New Democracy party office, one of them in an office occasionally used by Prime Minister Antonis Samaras.

In a disturbing trend of increasing violence, a Bomb exploded at Athens mall earlier today.
A homemade bomb exploded inside a suburban Athens shopping mall on Sunday, slightly injuring two security guards as they checked that the three-story building had been fully evacuated.

The device, placed near a moving staircase and a bank ATM on the first floor, caused only moderate damage, a police official said.

"This homemade bomb did not only target a specific building. It took aim at democratic stability, social peace and prospects for economic recovery," the citizens' protection ministry said in a statement reflecting concerns that the same self-styled anarchist and far-left groups, held responsible for violence at anti-bailout demonstrations, were behind the latest wave of attacks.

A hooded gunman fired nine bullets from an AK47 assault weapon into the New Democracy headquarters in the early hours last Monday. One landed in the office formerly used by the party leader Antonis Samaras, now prime minister. In other incidents, small devices using gas canisters were placed outside building entrances, timed to explode late at night.

Nikos Dendias, the citizens' protection minister, said in a newspaper interview published on Sunday that a revival of attacks against business and political targets had been expected since November, when the governing coalition agreed a new austerity package with the EU and International Monetary Fund. "Until now they have been isolated attacks, mainly symbolic," Mr Dendias said.
Shots Hit Ruling Party Headquarters, Journalists Also Targeted

The Wall Street Journal reports Shots Hit Offices of Ruling Party in Athens
Unidentified gunmen fired shots at the offices of Greece's ruling conservative party early Monday, police said. There were no injuries and only minor property damage, but the action follows a series of arson attacks in recent days against journalists and others that police say bear a resemblance to past strikes claimed by radical Greek leftist groups.

One of the shots fired, from a semiautomatic rifle, pierced the window of an office occasionally used by Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, head of the center-right New Democracy party.

The attack comes as Greek authorities move to crack down on self-styled anarchists. In the past few weeks, the coalition government, dominated by New Democracy, has been trying to assert its authority on the streets of Athens as it struggles with worsening law-and-order problems in the Greek capital.

In December, police cleared out a building known as the Villa Amalia where anarchist groups had been squatting for 22 years. Police said the building served as a staging ground for the violent demonstrations that have repeatedly rocked Athens since the start of its debt crisis three years ago.

Since then, unknown groups staged coordinated arson attacks at the homes of five Greek journalists last week, while there was another fire-bomb attack on Sunday at the home of the brother of government spokesman Simos Kedikoglou.
Euro Leaders Declare "Worst of Crisis is Over"

A week ago Bloomberg reported Euro Leaders Declaring Worst Is Over Turn to Economy Woes.
European leaders declaring they've gained the upper hand in the three-year-old debt crisis are sharpening efforts to channel a rebound in financial markets to an economic recovery to chip away at soaring unemployment.

Even as euro-area chiefs call for more time to lock in a bailout package for Cyprus and elections loom next month in Italy, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Jan. 11 that the single currency is "over the worst of the crisis."

Draghi cited "positive contagion" in European markets after the ECB's Governing Council left the central bank's benchmark interest rate at 0.75 percent, holding its fire amid signs that the debt crisis is waning. Monetary policy makers have opted to rely on an unconventional policy arsenal such as the ECB's pledge to buy unlimited amounts of sovereign debt.

Draghi told reporters in Frankfurt last week that "a gradual recovery should start" in late 2013, during which Standard & Poor's has said Ireland and Portugal could return to the markets after their bailout programs expire.

Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who leads euro finance ministers, also signaled the improved mood, saying "the worst is probably over, but what we still have to do is difficult."
Heard This "Worst is Over" Nonsense Before

We've heard this nonsense before. I did a search for "worst is over euro" and turned up a stunning number of links, some going all the way back to 2009.

Rather than compile my own list, please consider a chronology of statements compiled by David Lizoain for the Social Euro Journal.

Chronology of Statements

  • 10/12/2009 – Brian Lenihan, Irish Minister of Finance: "Our plan is working. We have turned the corner."
  • 09/07/2010 – Jürgen Stark, ECB Chief Economist: "[T]he worst is over…The I.M.F. is underestimating the strength of the economy in Europe."
  • 29/01/2011 – Christine Lagarde, French Minister of Finance: "I think the euro zone has turned the corner."
  • 10/03/2012 – Herman von Rompuy, European Council President: "[P]roblems have not yet finished, but the worst of the crisis is over."
  • 13/03/2012 – Wolfgang Schauble, German Minister of Finance: "We can say that the worst is behind us, but we cannot relax our efforts."
  • 13/03/2012 – Mario Monti, Prime Minister of Italy: "The most acute phase of the crisis appears to be definitely over but this is no reason for us to relax."
  • 13/03/2012 – Francois Baroin, French Minister of Finance: "If the question is whether the worst of the crisis is behind us, one can say yes … If we do not deviate from our path, the worst is behind us."
  • 22/03/2012 – Mario Draghi, President of the ECB: "The worst is over, but there are still risks. The situation is stabilising."
  • 27/03/2012 – Nicolas Sarkozy, President of France: "I think we came out of the financial crisis, that confidence is restored and we are in the process of economic recovery…Europe has an economic government which overcame the Greek crisis."
  • 27/03/2012 – Olli Rehn, European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs and the Euro, "The crisis in Greece is a challenge for the Greek society and for the EU. It is the legacy of years of irresponsible policies. Thanks to European solidarity, we avoided the worst, a social disaster."
  • 28/03/2012 – Herman von Rompuy, European Council President: "[W]e have turned a corner."
  • 28/03/2012 – Mario Monti, Prime Minister of Italy: "You all know that the eurozone has gone through a crisis, a huge crisis. I believe this crisis is now almost over."
  • 18/10/2012 – François Hollande, President of France: "The worst is over."
  • 19/11/2012 – Mariano Rajoy, President of Spain: "There are doubts about the irreversibility of the euro, it's true that there were more a few months ago than today…I'm totally and absolutely convinced that the worst has passed."
  • 27/12/2012 – Wolfgang Schauble, German Minister of Finance: "I believe the worst is past."
  • 07/01/2013 – José Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission, "I think we can say that the existential threat against the euro has essentially been overcome."
  • 09/01/2013 – Herman von Rompuy, European Council President: "Firstly and most importantly, the worst is behind us, in particular the existential threat to the euro."
  • 10/01/2013: Herman von Rompuy, European Council President: "The worst is now behind us, but not all is right, far from it."
  • 11/01/2013: Wolfgang Schauble, German Minister of Finance: The single currency is "over the worst of the crisis"
  • 14/01/2013: Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the Eurogroup, "[T]he worst is probably over, but what we still have to do is difficult."
  • 16/01/2013: Ewald Nowotny, Member of the ECB Governing Council: "The crisis is not over yet, but the worst is over."


I am quite certain there are dozens of other equally senseless statements to add to the list.

Worst Not Over

Every time there is temporary stabilization of bond rates, a whole slew of nannycrats proclaim "the worst is over".

I see escalating firebombs, arson, and near-anarchy in Greece, coupled with 26% unemployment in Greece and Spain, over 56% youth unemployment in both countries, and major problems in Italy, and France.

Moreover, a constitutional crisis is underway in Spain, and Massive Fraud in Spain Threatens Entire Government of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy as Protestors in Madrid Shout "Resignation".

With every tick up in unemployment adding powder to the keg, I wonder how much worse things get before the powder keg blows sky high.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

SEO Blog

SEO Blog


Top 10 Free Android Apps in Google Play Store for 2013

Posted: 20 Jan 2013 12:25 AM PST

Google Play Store, in the past well-known as the Android Market, is a digital application supply platform for Android Apps developed and managed by Google. Google play let users to browse and download applications free or for a particular cost. The Best 'Free' Android Apps in the Google Play Store...
Read more »

Seth's Blog : Interesting?

 

Interesting?

Is it interesting because it happened...

or because it happened to you?

If George Clooney sits next to you at a restaurant, that's interesting to you, no doubt, but only interesting to your friends because you're so excited. I mean, he had to sit next to someone!

Should we read your press release or come to your gallery opening or take a sales meeting because it's important, or because it's important to you?

Marketing is the art of seeing (and then creating) what might be interesting to more than our friends.

There's a circle of friends in our lives that care a lot about what we care about. The rest of the world? They mostly don't.

[Feel free to insert "important" and "urgent" as well. ]



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