sâmbătă, 19 septembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Showdown in Spain: Independence Parties to Increase Majority in Regional Parliament; Spanish Banks Warn Against Catalonia Independence

Posted: 19 Sep 2015 12:22 PM PDT

On September 27, the Catalonia region of Spain holds parliamentary elections.

It now seems near-certain that Catalan political parties favoring independence will increase their outright majority of seats, putting the region on a collision path with the central government in Madrid.

Voter Intentions

Thanks to reader Bran who lives in Spain for the El Pais Article that contained the above graph. Translation and anecdotes by me.

Together for Yes

Earlier this year, the political parties Convergence and Union (CiU) and the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) entered a coalition. The result was Junts pel Sí which means "Together for Yes".

If the outcome is as expected, "Together for Yes" would fall one vote short of an outright majority. However, the Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) is expected to pick up 10-11 seats.

Although CUP did not join the "Together for Yes" coalition, it is firmly in the independence camp.

Total them up and you have 78 votes for independence and 57 votes to remain with Madrid.

Spanish Banks Warn Against Catalonia Independence

With that backdrop, Madrid and the banks are both upset.

The Financial Times reports Spanish Banks Warn of Financial Risks of Catalonia Independence.

Spain's leading banks issued a blunt warning about the financial and economic risks surrounding the Catalan campaign for independence, saying they would have to reconsider their presence in the region should a breakaway state find itself outside the eurozone.

"The exclusion of Catalonia from the eurozone, following the unilateral rupture of the constitutional framework, would mean that all banks with a presence in Catalonia would face serious problems of legal uncertainty," said the joint statement issued by the country's two main banking associations.

Spanish business leaders and top bankers are taking the issue seriously enough to abandon their long-held position on the sidelines of the secession debate.
The statement was issued the same day as another Spanish business organisation warned of "grave damage" that separation would inflict on the Catalan and Spanish economies.

Crucially, the document was signed by Caixabank and Banco Sabadell — the two largest lenders based in Catalonia itself. In a phrase that echoes arguments made by the Spanish government, the document says that "the constitutional order and the membership of the eurozone for all of Spain must be preserved at all times".

Catalan independence activists argue that an independent state would still belong to the EU, and that issues surrounding the access of Catalan banks to the European Central Bank and other eurozone institutions could be easily solved. Senior European leaders, however, have been consistent in their message that an independent state would be left outside both the EU and the eurozone, at least temporarily.

Showdown in Spain

Soon after the election, expect more talk of a referendum for Catalonia to leave Spain. Also expect the central government in Madrid to declare a referendum illegal and threaten to send in troops to stop it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Remembering Dana Lookadoo - Moz Blog

Remembering Dana Lookadoo

Posted by jennita

Today we mourn the loss of our dear friend, long-time community member, and constant shining star in the industry, Dana Lookadoo.

She passed away early Monday morning after struggling with pain and other issues she endured resulting from her bicycle accident in 2013. Her husband Ed posted about her passing in a private Facebook group many folks were a part of. They will be setting up an education fund that we'll post more about when we have all the details.

Earlier this year we wrote more about the accident, and more importantly about how much Dana has given to this community. From her comments on the blog, to running webinars, and speaking at MozCon, she's been an active, welcoming member for as long as I can remember.

In early 2009, I was the newest member of the SEOmoz SEO Consulting team (yea, we had that back in the day). Let's just say I was slightly scared to death because I was a big nobody, and everyone else on my team was a "somebody" in the SEO industry. What I found, though, was a community of folks who welcomed me, and who made me feel right at home.

During my first SEOmoz Training Seminar (now known as MozCon) that year, Dana Lookadoo made a point to find me and welcome me personally to Moz. She asked if she could get a picture of the two of us. I thought she had to be crazy to want a picture with me. Some nobody. But that's who Dana was. She would go out of her way to make you feel comfortable, to introduce you to other folks, and she always had that big warm smile.

From that point on, Dana and I became industry friends and would run into each other at conferences all over the country. She would inevitably take lots of photos and introduce me to people I was too shy to talk to (yes, I can be shy).

One time at SMX West 2010, I had decided I was going to make a video asking people industry-related questions to see if they knew the answers. But I was having a hard time asking people. I mentioned this to Dana. Of course, she had no problem talking to folks, so she began helping me, introducing me to people, getting the conversation started. She was so dang good at it, so I simply let her roll with it. What came out of it was a silly, somewhat awkward (and a bit horrifying to see the old me), wonderful video.

"Man on Street" - A Who's Who in Search Marketing
Posted by Moz on Wednesday, March 10, 2010

I'll never forget telling her in 2010 that I had just found out I had colon cancer and that I'd be having surgery in a week. She was concerned and worried, but all her thoughts were about how to ensure my recovery went well. We talked about changing diet habits, then went on and on about how to be healthy.

Then in 2011, after I'd been going through chemo treatments for almost eight months, one morning I couldn't get out of bed. I had pushed myself too hard, fallen into a deep depression and my body had given up on me. Dana often called me, and although I didn't actually want to talk to anyone, I would answer, and then just cry. She'd just listen to me cry and tell me how much I was loved. She was concerned and went through the trouble of finding me a well regarded naturopath, made me an appointment and offered to pay for the services! I will never forget her love and her generosity during that horrible time.

The day I told her I had cancer.

After her accident, I went to visit her at her home. I remember feeling so happy to be able to return the love and friendship she had given me during my time of need. Dana will forever be a shining star; she will live on in our hearts and memories.

Dana was always full of love and light. She cared deeply about helping others and connecting people. We all have a story about Dana. I'd love to hear yours.

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Seth's Blog : Ad blocking

Ad blocking

By most accounts, more and more people are automatically blocking the ads in their browser.

Of course, people have been blocking ads forever. By ignoring them.

Fifteen years ago, when I began writing about Permission Marketing, I pointed out that when ads are optional, it's only anticipated, personal and relevant ones that will pay off.

And advertisers have had fifteen years to show self restraint. They've had the chance to not secretly track people, set cookies for their own benefit, insert popunders and popovers and poparounds, and mostly, deliver us ads we actually want to see.

Alas, it was probably too much to ask. And so, in the face of a relentless race to the bottom, users are taking control, using a sledgehammer to block them all. It's not easy to develop a white list, not easy to create an ad blocker that is smart enough to merely block the selfish and annoying ads. And so, just as the default for some advertisers is, "if it's not against the law and it's cheap, do it," the new generation of ad blockers is starting from the place of, "delete all."

Ad blockers undermine a fundamental principal of media, one that goes back a hundred years: Free content in exchange for attention. The thing is, the FCC kept the ad part in check with TV, and paper costs did the same thing for magazines and newspapers. But on the web, more and more people have come to believe that the deal doesn't work, and so they're unilaterally abrogating it. They don't miss the ads, and they don't miss the snooping of their data.

This reinforces the fundamental building blocks of growth today:

The best marketing isn't advertising, it's a well-designed and remarkable product.
The best way to contact your users is by earning the privilege to contact them, over time.
Making products for your customers is far more efficient than finding customers for your products.
Horizontally spread ideas (person to person) are far more effective than top-down vertical advertising.
More data isn't the point. Data to serve explicit promises is the point.
Commodity products can't expect to easily build a profitable 'brand' with nothing but repetitive jingles and noise.
Media properties that celebrate their ads (like Vogue) will continue to thrive, because the best advertising is the advertising we would miss if it was gone.

Media companies have always served the master who pays the bill... the advertiser. At some point, the advertiser will wake up and choose to do business in a new way, and my guess is that the media that we all rely on will change in response. But in the meantime, it seems as though many online consumers have had enough.