Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- American Airlines Went Bankrupt in November; Are Taxpayers on the Hook for Pension Benefits? What is the Equitable Solution?
- Jim Grant is Ron Paul's Pick to Head Fed, Gingrich's Pick to Study Return to Gold Standard; Grant Waits for Call from Mitt Romney; One Fundamental Mistake by Grant
- Deal Reached to Prevent Michigan Takeover of Detroit; Really? No, Not Really; What's Best for Bankrupt Detroit?
- Swarms of Mini-Drones to Forever Change Warfare; "Mr. President, We Have a Drone Gap"
- German Central Bank 228 Billion Euros in Debt Rescuing Europe; Bundesbank President Criticizes Merkel's Fiscal Pact, Says "No Grounds for Eurobonds"
Posted: 02 Feb 2012 08:46 PM PST American Airlines filed for bankruptcy in November 2011. Here is the question at hand: Will Taxpayers Be On The Hook For American Airlines' Pensions? American Airlines needs $18.5 billion to cover its pension promises to current and former employees, but it has only set aside $8.3 billion.Three Simple Questions
1A. Clearly taxpayers should not be on the hook. 2A. Airlines are bankrupt because of over-regulation and absurd contracts and benefits negotiated with unions 3A. The key to answering question 3 is contained in the answer to question 2. Unions negotiated pension befits that bankrupted the companies. Thus it is unions who are largely responsible and it is unions, not taxpayers nor other corporations who should pay the price. Equitable Solution Details With the above guiding principles, the equitable solution is straight-forward. American Airlines needs $18.5 billion to cover its pension promises but it has only set aside $8.3 billion. That is a shortfall of $10.2 billion on $18.5 billion. In other words, a haircut of 55% on pension benefits will fix the problem. Interestingly, that is nearly the same percentage haircut as just as happened in the Central Falls, Rhode Island Bankruptcy. Some might protest that airlines should have been setting aside more money for their pensions all along. True enough. But the result would have been bankruptcy sooner, and it does not change who is to blame. It's best to look on the bright side. A 55% haircut is far less than is going to happen to Greece. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Posted: 02 Feb 2012 01:18 PM PST MarketWatch comments on the politics of Getting Back to the Gold Standard The legendary Wall Street writer, publisher of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, has been mentioned by two of the rivals for the Republican presidential nomination. Newt Gingrich said if elected president, he'd name Grant to help run a commission looking at a possible return to the gold standard. And Ron Paul said, if elected president, he'd go all-in and name Grant — one of Wall Street's best-known gold bugs — as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve.One Fundamental Mistake by Grant Grant is certainly correct about the need to return to constitutional money. He is also correct about killing the FDIC. However it is a mistake to think one can fix the price of gold. It cannot be done and should not be attempted. The irony is Grant correctly criticizes the Fed for fixing interest rates, then thinks he can correctly divine the correct price of gold at $2,500 an ounce. Only the free market can determine the price of gold and what gold buys. If the US went to a 100% gold-back dollar, with guaranteed convertibility of paper to ounces of gold, the price of gold would be much higher than $2,500 an ounce. Grant cites an error in 1925 in which the Bank of England set the price of gold too high. The opposite side of the coin is that if the price is set too low, is market participants will redeem all their paper dollars for gold, hoarding it. Simply put, the Fed does not know the correct interest rate and Grant does not know the correct price of gold. For the benefits of returning to a gold standard, please see Hugo Salinas Price and Michael Pettis on the Trade Imbalance Dilemma; Gold's Honest Discipline Revisited Premature Dollar Obituaries and Mainstream Economists' Monetary Insanity; Keynes-Inspired Great Depression; Lessons Not Learned Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Posted: 02 Feb 2012 11:04 AM PST On January 29 Bloomberg reported Bing Races to Beat Michigan Deadline for Union Detroit Deal Democratic Mayor Dave Bing is racing to wrest concessions from 48 bargaining units to erase a $200 million deficit in the home of General Motors Co. and the cradle of the U.S. auto industry.Deal Reached? Mayor Bing is taking his script straight from Greece where a deal has been "close" for days, weeks, and now months. Today's Bloomberg headline does not match the facts presented. Please consider Detroit Reaches Pact With City Unions to Avoid Takeover, Detroit News Says Mayor Dave Bing and a majority of city employee unions have reached tentative agreement on concessions aimed at avoiding a state takeover.Deal Reached? Really? No, Not Really According to mayor Bing we have an "agreement", albeit an agreement with no details, and without covering police or firefighters. What kind of deal is that? What's Best for Detroit? The best thing for Detroit would be if there is no deal, or the state rejects the deal. Unions are the problem and the solution is to get rid of them entirely. That will not happen under Bing, but it could happen in a state takeover. Bing is not interested in what's best for Detroit taxpayers nor is he interested is what's best for Detroit school children where shockingly only 25% graduate high schools. Rather, Bing is out to save as much of the status quo as he can, including his own job of course. Detroit Schools Bankrupt Flashback July 24,2009: The Wall Street Journal reports Detroit's Schools Are Going Bankrupt, Too Detroit is like many urban school districts—large, unwieldy and bureaucratic, with a powerful union that makes the system unable to adapt to changing circumstances and that until very recently had an indulgent political class that insulated it from reform. That insulation came in two forms. The first was neglect. Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick spent several years distracted by a scandal stemming from his affair with a staffer. He resigned last year, pleaded guilty to obstruction of justice, and was sentenced to four months in jail. Had he been an effective mayor, he might have also been a powerful advocate for students.Collective Bargaining has Morally and Fiscally Bankrupted Detroit Schools Read that again. Under pressure from the Teachers' Union, Detroit turned down $200 Million. That was in 2003 dollars. Wow. No doubt the union "did it for the kids". For more on the appalling behavior of Detroit's teachers' unions please see Detroit Public Schools (25% graduation rate) teachers unions opposing highly qualified volunteer teachers. It is time to kill collective bargaining for public unions, every one of them, and nation-wide, not just Detroit. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Swarms of Mini-Drones to Forever Change Warfare; "Mr. President, We Have a Drone Gap" Posted: 02 Feb 2012 09:34 AM PST As a temporary diversion from economic analysis, inquiring minds are watching an amazing video of swarming mini-drones. Information Dissemination says UAV Swarms Will Change Warfare Forever Global Guerrillas discusses Drones in the USA. Global Guerrillas also discusses the slippery slope of assassinations in DRONES and US Internal Security Previously, when thinking of killer drones people had images in mind of big extremely high flying predators such as this drone captured by Iran. Mini-drones flying in organized patterns are a completely different thing. Some of the ideas expressed in the above articles seem a bit far-fetched, such as swarms of tiny drones attacking ships. Could they carry enough explosives? According to Wikepedia, it would take at least 4 kg of plutonium (about 8.8 pounds) to build a nuclear weapon, and that does not count housing. Other explosives would seem to be more of a nuisance to a big ship than anything else. Thus thoughts of using mini-drones as explosive weapons may not be in the cards, but something substantially bigger, say a hundred pounds or so could conceivably work, and could easily be launched undetected a hundred miles out at sea, flying just above the water until it reached shore. Mr. President, We Have a Drone Gap Now, having wasted enormous amounts of money on researching and testing weapons shields in outer space, we can turn our thoughts to preparing for the invasion of swarms of yet to be announced killer nano-drones much smaller than the ones in that video. We also need to prepare for micro-drones capable of firing needle-sized poison darts, mini-drones such as one in the video able to fire a single bullet, and of course suitcase-sized drones capable of carrying nuclear bombs or firing a machine gun. Thus, the defense department obviously needs anti-drone drones at the nano-level, micro-level, mini-level, and suitcase-level. To paraphrase a general in the movie Dr. Strangelove regarding an alleged mineshaft gap, "Mr. President, we have a drone gap". If you have not seen the movie, please do. It is one of my all-time favorites. The only missing ingredient now is for some nutcase to champion a drone-defense program as the best way to save the economy. With those sarcastic thoughts out of the way, this drone-diversion is over. It's time to get back to discussing financial Armageddon. Addendum: Inquiring minds may wish to watch these big brother videos on drones being used or tested by police. Link if video does not play: UAV Spy Drones, Police to Tackle Privacy Issues Later Military drones being used by Local Police Link if video does not play: Military drones being used by Local Police German Microdrones, Your Eye in the Sky Link if video does not play: New German UAV -- microdrone Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Posted: 02 Feb 2012 03:14 AM PST Both Angela Merkel and the Bundesbank are walking an extremely fine line of economic policies and treaty arrangements that appear to be in violation of policy statements made by the German Supreme Court regarding transfer unions. Moreover, the Bundesbank president is now in what amounts to an open Feud with Merkel. Bundesbank 228 Billion Euros in Debt Rescuing Europe Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at The Telegraph reports Bundesbank Sinks Deeper Into Debt Saving Europe The operations are part of the European Central Bank's 'TARGET2' network of automatic payments between the national central banks of the Euroland club. The Bundesbank has already provided €496bn (£413bn) to countries in trouble, chiefly Greece, Ireland, Italy and Spain.Given that German taxpayers are indeed on the hook should something go wrong, I am surprised no one has issued a direct challenge to the German supreme court to stop the madness. The ECB may indeed have taken over "printing money" but German taxpayers are still liable for their large percentage share of any problems at the ECB. Target 2 Balances In Summit Time – Batten Down the Hatches Pater Tenebrarum posted a nice series of charts on Target 2 balances. click on any chart for sharper image Target 2 Germany Target 2 Netherlands Target 2 Finland Target 2 Spain Anyone see a problem here? If not, please consider this September 26 2011 post citing a ruling by the German Supreme Court: Germany's Top Judge Throws Major Monkey Wrench Into Leveraged EFSF Machinery, Demands New Constitution and Popular Referendum for Further Powers. German turmoil over EU bail-outs as top judge calls for referendum Bundesbank President Criticizes Merkel's Fiscal Pact Clearly the Bundesbank is walking a very fine line, with huge problems of its own. It does not need additional problems caused by politicians. Thus its patience with Angela Merkel for stepping over the line has run out. Eurointelligence reports .... Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann last night criticized the fiscal pact Angela Merkel had forced upon her EU partners at last Monday's summit, Financial Times Deutschland reports. "The guidelines for the national fiscal rules leave considerable room of manouver and there is no control on a European level to check if they are really respected", Weidmann said in a speech.Political Zugzwang Merkel is under attack by members of her own political part and the president of the Bundesbank as well. As I said in Political Zugzwang, Merkel has no good options. Zugzwang is a term in chess. A player has to make a move but every move weakens the position. Pass is not an option. Merkel is in such a no-win position. Everything she does will put her under attack by someone. Doing nothing, is an option in politics but not chess. However, doing nothing also exposes Merkel to attack. Attacks Fly Check out this nonsense from former European Commission chief Jacques Delors who says Resistance to eurozone bailout boost 'scandalous' Former European Commission chief Jacques Delors on Sunday blasted the reluctance of eurozone countries like Germany to boost the size of the Greek bailout and create a system of eurobonds to facilitate lending.Delors' Self-Serving Pomp What's scandalous if for political hacks like Delors to assume the Eurozone is worth saving, then tell everyone else how to go about it without taking into consideration any restraints others may have. I suggest the euro is not worth saving. For the sake of argument, however, let's assume the eurozone is worth saving, and start with a look at Merkel's options. Merkel's Predicament
That my friends is political zugzwang and that is precisely why she called for Greece to Cede Sovereignty to Eurozone "Budget Commissioner". Her proposal elevated the ire of Greeks as well as the likes of political hacks like Delors. However, blaming Merkel as Delors did is the height of arrogance. Not only is she at risk from from the German central bank, she absolutely cannot step over a line set by the supreme court. Thus, the option Merkel selected is the one that makes the most sense. It was her least-worst option. It also bought her and the eurozone the most time. It is the only option that has any chance of working. I think the best thing for the Eurozone would be for Germany to exit. The irony is that would likely happen quickly if Merkel embarked down the path demanded by Jacques Delors. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
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