Central Perk: 28 nov. 2015

sâmbătă, 28 noiembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

National Front Leading Polls for French Regional Elections Dec 6, Dec 13; Center-Right Squeezed

Posted: 28 Nov 2015 03:19 PM PST

French Regional Elections are coming up on December 6 and December 13.

At stake are the presidencies of the 18 Regions of France. 12 Regions are on continental France, plus Corsica and 5 more overseas.

The regions do not have legislative autonomy, but they do manage sizable budgets. And the regional elections are often taken as a mid-term opinion poll.

National Front Ahead in Polls

European polls are frequently inaccurate, but as it stands, the center is being squeezed by Marine Le Pen's Eurosceptic and anti-immigration National Front party (FN) on the right, and on the other side by the radical left.

Via translation, 20 Minutes reports National Front Ahead in Regional Election Polls.

According to an exclusive survey by Harris Interactive for 20 Minutes, less than one in two French (43%) claiming to vote in the 1st round believes that the attacks will play their choice. And only one in four surveyed believes this will play "a lot" (26%). "There is not today, when questioned French, immediate relationship between this situation of tension and electoral behavior," said Jean-Daniel Levy, director of the department "Politics and Opinion" Harris Interactive.

According to the survey, the National Front collects 27% of voting intentions ahead of the radical socialist Left Party-Party with (26%),and Republicans-UDI-MoDem (25%). Then come the lists of Europe-Ecology-The Greens (7%) left the Communist Party-Front (5%) tied with sovereignist party France Arise.

"At present, the situation appears favorable to the National Front and the left. The FN obtained the highest percentage of the vote in a poll for regional. As for the left, it is admittedly scattered, but it has a certain mobilization, "said Jean-Daniel Levy. For the united right in the center, the situation seems more complicated inversely. "It now seems squeezed between FN and formations of the left," says pollster.

Finally, the assumption that a regional council is directed by a majority FN is considered "least desirable" by the French. The situation seems paradoxical while the FN has the highest rate of voting intention.

Center-Right Squeezed

The center appears to be squeezed between the far left and the Eurosceptic National Front. But I don't understand the wording "only one in four surveyed believes terrorism will play a lot". 26% seems like a lot, especially in countries with a multitude of small parties.

Moreover, that French Unemployment Rises Most in Three Years to Record Level should also play into the National Front's hands.

We will find out soon enough, but the Nannycrats in Brussels are likely quite worried.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

French Unemployment Rises Most in Three Years to Record Level

Posted: 28 Nov 2015 09:22 AM PST

The recovery in France appears to have stalled already, and this is from employment data before the terrorist attacks. Via translation from Les Echos ...

The number of Class A unemployed rose by 42,000 last month. This is the largest increase in nearly three years. Overseas included, France now has 3,810,000 unemployed, a new record.

The major disappointment is for the Government, which hoped that the sharp decline in September finally marked the beginning of the reversal "credible" and "sustainable" in the curve of unemployment to which Hollande has conditioned his candidacy for re-election in 2017.

"These figures are not satisfactory," euphemized Myriam El Khomri, the labor minister, while adding they "must still be interpreted with caution because the results of recent months experiencing strong variations."

Economists point out that the attacks in Paris strengthen the uncertainties about the pace of recovery in France. They fear a decline in activity in tourism and catering that would inevitably damage employment.

compare the above assessment with an amazing statement by economist Nouriel Roubini: "Positive Impacts of Paris Attacks Modest Unless More Attacks Follow"

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Damn Cool Pics

Around the World in 15 Exotic Snacks [Infographic]

Posted: 27 Nov 2015 07:31 PM PST

Nothing for experiencing a culture like getting a mouthful of their favorite snack food, so the next time you decide to go wandering around the world, be sure to check out the local cuisine with help from Expedia.

Click on Image to Enlarge.

via expedia

Seth's Blog : Past performance is not indicative of future results

Past performance is not indicative of future results

This is clearly and demonstrably true of mutual funds. It's easy to confirm.

And yet...

We are very uncomfortable with randomness. So the newspaper does a 12 page section of mutual funds, filled with articles and ads and charts, all touting past performance.

Superstition is what we call the belief in causation due to a mistaken correlation of unrelated data. A broken mirror doesn't actually cause seven years of bad luck, and cheering in a certain way isn't going to help the Yankees, sorry.

Of course, we don't live in a completely random world. The scientific method and statistics make it more likely than ever that you can find trends that actually matter.

The hard part is accepting that the random things actually are unpredictable, and refusing to spend time or money guessing on what can't be reliably guessed. It frees up a lot of time and resources to focus on the things that are actually worth measuring.