Central Perk: 28 nov. 2014

vineri, 28 noiembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Conflicting Shopping Headlines: NY Times "Brisk Sales", Yahoo "Black Friday Shopping Crowds Thin"

Posted: 28 Nov 2014 10:43 AM PST

Here's a pair of conflicting stories regarding Black Friday shopping.

Crowds Thin

Yahoo!Finance reports Black Friday Shopping Crowds Thin After Thanksgiving Rush.

Mall crowds were relatively thin early on Black Friday in a sign of what has become the new normal in U.S. holiday shopping: the mad rush is happening the night of Thanksgiving and more consumers are picking up deals online.

"It just looks like any other weekend," said Angela Olivera, a 32-year old housewife shopping for children's clothing at the Westfarms Mall near Hartford, Connecticut. "The kind of crowds we usually see are missing and this is one of the biggest malls here. I think people are just not spending a lot."

Brisk Sales

The New York Times reports Black Friday Sales Are Brisk, Retailers Say, Bolstered by Online Deals.

Parking lots at some shopping malls filled up around the country on Friday, as shoppers kept up the tradition of scouring stores for holiday deals even though some retailers had been open on Thanksgiving and even overnight.

Big retailers, many of whom kicked off sales Thursday evening, reported brisk traffic overnight. Walmart said that 22 million shoppers streamed through stores across the country on Thanksgiving Day, more than the number of people who visit Disney's Magic Kingdom in an entire year, the retail giant pointed out.

Still, as retailers jump-start their deals earlier and more sales move online, Black Friday itself is starting to fade in importance.

Target said its best-selling goods in store were the Element 40" TV, the Xbox One, iPads and Nikon's L330 camera. In the first hour of stores opening, Target sold 1,800 TVs per minute and 2,000 video games per minute, the retailer said in a release. Keurig's K40 brewer and Dyson's DC50 vacuum were other top sellers, Target said.

Economists are closely watching whether retailers can entice shoppers to spend during what retailers consider the biggest shopping weekend of the year, especially after a year of lackluster sales so far. A brightening economic outlook, and ever-cheaper gas prices, are starting to lift consumer confidence. But there are also signs of lingering wariness among consumers, after what has been an uneven economic recovery marked by anemic wage growth, especially for low-income households.

And online, which makes up a bigger share of holiday sales each year, retailers have been offering Black Friday deals for many days now, stretching what was once a one-day shopping frenzy into a week or more of sales.

Online retailers have also driven the heavier-than-ever discounting this year. Amazon has priced out many of the country's biggest retailers in the big-ticket holiday items, offering a Samsung 55-inch 4K flat-screen television for $899. Dealnews.com, which closely tracks Black Friday deals, declared Amazon's deal "without a doubt" the cheapest name-brand 4K television it had ever seen.

IBM Digital Analytics, which tracks online shopping transactions in the United States, said sales rose 12 percent between midnight and 6 p.m. Eastern time Thanksgiving Day.

Is traffic up or down? Perhaps it varies by region. Two safe bets: Online shopping is up, and Black Friday is losing importance as shopping is spread out over more days.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Japan Household Spending Down 4%, CPI Drops to 0.9%; Bankruptcies Soar in Yen Collapse

Posted: 28 Nov 2014 09:09 AM PST

In spite of the Yen falling 35% since 2011, Japan once again borders on deflation. Please consider Japan's CPI falls to 0.9%.

Japanese core inflation last month fell below 1 per cent to a 13 month low, just weeks before prime minister Shinzo Abe heads to the polls to garner fresh support to push back a scheduled rise in sales tax.

Core consumer prices, all prices excluding fresh food, slowed to an annual pace of 2.9 per cent growth year-on-year in October, in line with forecasts. Stripped of any impact of the sales tax rise in April, core prices are up 0.9 per cent.

Highlighting the scale of the challenges facing the Abe administration, data released on Friday also showed households further tightening their purse-strings.

Household spending fell 4 per cent year-on-year, the seventh consecutive decline since the national sales tax was raised from 5 to 8 per cent in April. Retail sales dropped 1.4 per cent, reversing two months of gains.

The drop in core inflation comes not even 10 days after Haruhiko Kuroda, Bank of Japan governor, warned that a fall below 1 per cent was "possible", in a reversal of comments made just four months ago.

Bankruptcies Soar in Yen Collapse

Here's an interesting note regarding bankruptcies that I picked up from ZeroHedge: As Japanese Bankruptcies Soar, Goldman Warns "Further Yen Depreciation Could Be A Net Burden"

According to a recent bankruptcy survey by Tokyo Shoko Research, there were 214 bankruptcies due to the weak yen in January-September 2014, which is 2.4 times the 89 seen in January-September 2013. Far more of the bankruptcies were in the nonmanufacturing sector—81 in transport, 41 in wholesale trade, 19 in services, and 11 in retail—than in the manufacturing sector (44), which is consistent with our analysis based on the input/output tables.

Surprisingly, the number of bankruptcies since 2013 due to yen depreciation far surpasses the number of bankruptcies in 2009-2011 due to yen appreciation.

Bankruptcies Caused by Falling Yen

The Japanese consumer is faced with a falling yen, much higher taxes, and counting taxes prices much higher. The only saving grace for Japan has been falling energy prices.

Yet, prime minister Shinzo Abe Wants inflation and more of it. It's madness.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

WHITE EXCHANGE 2014 WELCOMES DELEGATES TO THE ASHMOLEAN MUSEUM OXFORD

Posted: 27 Nov 2014 08:22 AM PST

On Monday 24th November, White welcomed over 100 delegates with exclusive access to the prestigious Ashmolean Museum for its annual White Exchange conference.

'Turning Data into Strategy' was the focus of the day and attracted representatives from both client and agency side from a wealth of London and Oxfordshire-based businesses.

The day kicked off with Jon Myers, VP and MD EMEA of Marin Software, outlining 5 key trends on the use of data in online advertising.

"Are you advertising on RSLA with Google? If not then go and take a look, it targets your demographic"- Jon Myers.

This was followed by one of White's own PPC Consultant, Jason Denny, with a very engaging presentation on 'Identifying data to fuel your PPC Strategy', in which he explained why Keyword Eye, SEMrush and Keyword Planner are his tools of choice.

Head of Insight at Linkdex, Jonathan Alderson, captivated the audience with his talk on 'Digital Marketing by Numbers'. Alderson says, 'pull all your key stakeholders into one room and articulate what good likes like, then translate to a measurable goal'.

Director of Services at White, Daniel Bianchini, then shared his 4 steps to building a data-driven strategy, highlighting that marketers do not always utilise data to drive decisions.

"All goals must lead back to your overall business objective" – Daniel Bianchini

In the surroundings of marble sculptures and historical artefacts, lunch was served and delegates networked and had the opportunity to converse with the speakers of the morning.

Keynote speaker and CEO of Democrata, Geoffrey Roberts, took the audience on a journey of his career path, starting in the music industry to Nokia working on some leading edge projects. His talk, 'How music, data and technology help us get closer to the consumer', received a lot of positive feedback from delegates.

The day was rounded off with an invitation to all the speakers to take part in a panel discussion about the future of data. Big Data Advisor for CPM, John Morton, accompanied the speakers on the panel as a specialist in delivering complex insight to decision makers in solutions such as loyalty, rogue trading, and grey market assessment.

The panel was interactive and engaging, with several questions deriving from the delegates in the room.

"The range and quality of the presentations was excellent. A very effective way of gaining a lot of insight in such an inspiring location"- Chris Jones, White Exchange 2014 delegate.

Drinks were then served in the Money Gallery, which hosts one of Britain's largest collections of money, coins and medals. A sense of excitement for discovery and fascination amongst the delegates was evoked being surrounded by these historical pieces.

With the museum being closed to the public for the event, delegates of White Exchange had the opportunity to browse and admire all that the Ashmolean has to offer.

"A museum may seem staid and stuffy, however a White light was shone on how marketing practitioners can drive deeper customer engagements, inhibit competitors and grow their business at the White Exchange 'Turning Data into Strategy' event. The speakers were insightful, the audience engaged, with many pragmatic topics raised in the Q&A sessions. Look forward to the next White event!" – John Morton

The success of this White Exchange firmly establishes White as an successful and expanding agency. With growing interest and attendance to the annual conference, the next White Exchange looks to be even bigger and better. For information about the next White Exchange, get in touch with one of the team at White.

"I was so pleased to see so much interest in the event this year. We worked really hard to bring speakers from a variety of industries and professional backgrounds to give a wealth of information on the topic for this year's event. I'd like to thank the speakers for agreeing to take part in this event. I'd also like to thank the staff from the Ashmolean, who not only proved an amazing venue but were very helpful in enabling us to put the event on. Finally, I'd like to thank the team at White who worked tirelessly to make the event happen."
Stuart Tofts, Founder and MD, White.

Below you can find all the presentations of the speakers from White Exchange 2014.

Jon Myers

Jason Denny

Jonathan Alderson

Daniel Bianchini

Geoffrey Roebrts

The post WHITE EXCHANGE 2014 WELCOMES DELEGATES TO THE ASHMOLEAN MUSEUM OXFORD appeared first on White.net.

Seth's Blog : The fear of freedom

The fear of freedom

What will you do next?

What can you learn tomorrow?

Where will you live, who will you connect with, who will you trust?

Are questions better than answers? Maybe it's easier to get a dummies book, a tweet or a checklist than it is to think hard about what's next...

It's certainly easier to go shopping. And easier still to buy what everyone else is buying.

We live in an extraordinary moment, with countless degrees of freedom. The instant and effortless connection to a billion people changes everything, but instead, we're paralyzed with fear, a fear so widespread that you might not even notice it.

We have more choices, more options and more resources than any generation, ever.

[Reminder: Black Friday is a media trap, an orchestrated mass hallucination based on herd dynamics and the media cycle.]