joi, 30 ianuarie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Harris v. Quinn: A Mother Petitions the Supreme Court in Fight Against Parasitic Unions

Posted: 30 Jan 2014 04:24 PM PST

I have tried to steer clear of inflaming names like "parasite" when speaking about public unions. In this case, no other word comes close to describing the setup.

Making Millions Off the Disabled

One brave mother, Pam Harris, has resisted forced unionization of herself (as a sole home-caretaker, in her own home, for her disabled son Josh). She resisted all the way to the Supreme Court.

An email from Diana Rickert at Illinois Policy Institute describes the setup. You can also find her article on the Chicago Tribune.

With immense disgust, I present Making Millions Off the Disabled
Josh, the youngest child in the Harris family, was born with a rare genetic disorder. He lives with severe physical, cognitive and emotional struggles. This means the day-to-day tasks most of us take for granted — waking up, splashing water on his face, eating — require a lot of help.

But Josh is blessed to have a family that loves him. They always have been there for him.

In fact, his mother, Pam, has stayed home full time to take care of Josh for the past 25 years. Josh is her primary focus. Not her career. Not vacations. Not social outings with other moms. The truth is, Pam is doing what any mom would do: fighting to give her son the very best care she can.

Josh's care is expensive. The Harris family is fortunate enough to receive a modest Medicaid benefit administered by Illinois state government. Josh is eligible to receive up to $2,130 per month, or roughly $25,000 a year.

But here is where the Harris family's story takes a disgusting turn.

Henry Bayer wants some of Josh's money. In fact, he feels entitled to it.

Who is Henry Bayer?

Bayer is the executive director of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Council 31, one of the state's largest government unions.

Bayer's salary — approximately $145,000 in 2012, according to public records — is paid for by union dues from government workers. Compulsory union dues, from government workers who must pay money to Bayer and his union whether they want to or not.

Illinois politicians have a dangerously cozy relationship with government unions. In 2009, these close ties paid off: Gov. Pat Quinn issued an executive order to unionize the people in Josh's program.

Imagine having to pay union dues to collect food stamps or unemployment. That's what the executive order meant for Josh. For him to continue receiving his Medicaid support and his mother to be his primary caretaker, the Harris family would be forced to give part of their benefit check to either the AFSCME or another union, the Service Employees International Union.

The Harris family wouldn't stand for it. They alerted other families in the program, and when it came time to vote on which union would represent them, the vote was clear: 220 votes for AFSCME, 293 votes for SEIU, and 1,018 votes with an emphatic "no union!"

Pam Harris and others took their fight all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court.

Oral arguments in Josh's case were heard Jan. 21, and a decision is expected this summer. Josh's story has garnered national attention.

In the aftermath of the Supreme Court hearing, here is what AFSCME's Bayer had to say in response to a Chicago Tribune editorial in favor of Pam Harris: If you don't want to pay union dues, you shouldn't be eligible for state aid.

A few years before the executive order to unionize the program that the Harris family participates in, Quinn's predecessor, former Gov. Rod Blagojevich, unionized another, similar program for the disabled. The unions didn't even bother taking a vote that time; they conducted a questionable card-check operation to claim a slim majority of people in this program wanted to pay dues to SEIU.

According to documents obtained through the Freedom of Information Act, since 2009 the SEIU has siphoned more than $52 million in union dues from the families in this program.
Pam Harris Video

Here is an interesting video by Pam Harris.


Forced Association

The Illinois Policy Institute was overly polite.

Pam Harris and others are forced against their will to join unions. Those unions do absolutely nothing for Harris except suck like giant parasites, money that should go to the disabled.

It would be fitting if the Supreme Court ruled the SEIU and AFSCME parasites not only have to stop the practice, but also have to pay back the $52 million they stole, plus interest.

These disgusting, parasitic practices occur in many other states as well.

Freedom of Association

I am all in favor of freedom of association. People who want to join the Boy Scouts can. People who want to join the NRA can. People who want to form any kind of work union can. I am happy to let those unions exist.

However, the reverse should be true as well. No one should be forced into an association (or forced into dealing with associations) if they don't want to.

Imagine the outrage if liberals were forced to join the NRA to get jobs as teachers! 

Yet, somehow it's OK if conservatives have to join the SEIU to take certain jobs. In the case of Harris and other caretakers, the jobs don't even exist, except for the parasitic collection of union dues!

Forced membership into organizations is nothing more than a form of slavery. And "collective bargaining" is a euphemism for the slavery of forced membership.

Yes, it is indeed that simple, no matter how nice the union slave-masters try to make it sound.

I propose, and hope, that the Supreme Court issues a broad ruling on the matter, ending the slavery of forced collective bargaining once and for all.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Spain Misses Watered-Down Budget Deficit Targets Yet Again

Posted: 30 Jan 2014 09:10 AM PST

When you are about to miss budget targets, the easy thing to do is lower the bar, again and again until you can hit them. Spain did just that, and still missed.

Via translation from Libre Mercaado, please consider Spain Misses Budget Deficit Target for 2013.
Treasury announced a deficit of 5.44% of GDP in November, but official data elevate that number to 5.96%. Taking a December shortfall estimate into consideration, the deficit estimate is around 6.9% for 2013.

Economy Minister Luis de Guindos, chose his words are very careful in this regard. Guindos said yesterday that the 2013 deficit would "converge towards the target of 6.5%", through improved tax collection and lower cost of debt (interest payments).

The defict is not the only accounting chicanery. Tax data used to estimate GDP has little or nothing to do with reality.

Accurately stated, the deficit would be around 5.96% of GDP to November, instead of the 5.44% announced by the Treasury, which is a deviation of 0.52% of GDP.

Also remember that until last June, the general government deficit target for 2013 was 4.5% of GDP and not 6.5%. The Government of Mariano Rajoy managed to smooth the path of fiscal consolidation after pressing insistently to Brussels.

In any case, the final deficit figure will not be known, quite possibly until the end of 2014, after the successive and traditional budget and GDP revisions specific to the Spanish authorities, as usual.
For grins, let's take a look at a progression of events in 2013.

March 12, 2013 - Mish: Spain's Budget Deficit Grew by 35.4% in January to 1.2% of GDP; Spain's Tax Revenue Drops 20% in Face of VAT Hikes
Summary

  • Spain's budget deficit for the month of January was 0.89% not counting regional deficits.
  • The target for the entire year is 3.8% of GDP.
  • On that basis, Spain went through 23.42% of its annual budget in a single month.
  • Spain's deficit target including regions and transfer payment is 4.5% of GDP.
  • The deficit including regions and transfer payments was 1.2% of GDP.
  • On that basis, Spain blew 26.67 % of its budget in a single month.
  • Territorial government revenues declined 29.1%
  • Income Tax revenue (corporate + personal) fell 18.2%
  • Social Security payments grew by 40.2%
  • Overall transfer payments increased 23.3%

Odds of Success Zero Percent

Odds Spain hits its budget target of 4.5% in 2013 is precisely 0.00%.
In June, after begging Brussels for relief, the target was revised to 6.5% of GDP.

September 16, 2013 - New York Times: Spain's economy minister, Luis de Guindos, said Spain on Track to Meet Budget.
"Spain is on track to meet the 2013 budget deficit target it agreed on with its European Union partners and should emerge from recession before the end of the year," the economy minister said on Monday.

After the financial crisis burst Spain's construction bubble in 2008, "no doubt 2014 will be the first year when Spain will have some recovery," the minister said.
September 18, 2013 - Mish (commenting on the NYT article): Spain on Track to Meet Budget Targets Says Economy Minister; Data Strongly Suggests Otherwise
How many lies and distortions can one man present in a few short paragraphs?

If by some miracle Spain meets this year's target, it is only because the target changed 4 times in the past two years.

Yet, I still have to ask: how likely is that?
December 5, 2013 - Mish: Spain Raids Social Security Reserve Fund to Meet Deficit Targets
Monetary magic of borrowing money from trust funds allegedly helps Spain come closer to meeting its budget deficit targets reports Eurointelligence.

If Spain meets it budget deficit target this year, it will likely do so by some sort of accounting gimmickry or purposeful under-reporting of regional debt.

Expect the same thing multiple times in 2014, because Spain will have to not only catch up with its 2013 revised deficit shortfalls, but also comply with new rules that likely take away some sleight of hand budget gimmickry.

By the way, it's important to note that 97% of what's left of the reserve fund is invested in Spanish government debt. Think that investment won't ever take a haircut?
And so here we are, with yet another miss of a four times watered down budget deficit target.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

China Manufacturing Back in Contraction, Staffing Declines at Sharpest Pace Since March 2009.

Posted: 29 Jan 2014 11:54 PM PST

The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI shows China manufacturing is back in contraction, following six months of barely positive growth.
Key points

  • Growth of output eases to marginal pace
  • Quickest rate of job shedding since March 2009
  • Marked falls in input costs and output charge

January data signalled a deterioration of operating conditions in China's manufacturing sector for the first time in six months. The deterioration of the headline PMI largely reflected weaker expansions of both output and new business over the month. Firms also cut their staffing levels at the quickest pace since March 2009. On the price front, average production costs declined at a marked rate, while firms lowered their output charges for the second successive month.



After adjusting for seasonal factors, the HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) posted at 49.5 in January, down fractionally from the earlier flash reading of 49.6, and down from 50.5 in December. This signaled the first deterioration of operating conditions in China's manufacturing sector since July.

Production levels continued to increase in January, extending the current sequence of expansion to six months. However, the rate of growth eased to a marginal pace.

Employment levels at Chinese manufacturers fell for the third consecutive month in January. Moreover, it was the quickest reduction of payroll numbers since March 2009. Job shedding was generally attributed by panelists to the non-replacement of voluntary leavers as well as reduced output requirements. Despite the marked reduction of headcounts, the level of unfinished business at goods producers rose only fractionally over the month.
This is yet another sign of a global slowing economy.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


This Is How Chinese Students Study at Night

Posted: 30 Jan 2014 02:57 PM PST

This is how Chinese students keep themselves awake at night.























18 Year old Suzanne Svanevik is a Beast in the Gym

Posted: 30 Jan 2014 02:37 PM PST

Norwegian Girl Suzanne Svanevik is only 18 years old and weighs a tiny 118 lbs (54 kg) of pure muscle. She trains twice a day, 5 to 6 times per week and can deadlift 330 lbs (150 kg) and bench press 132 lbs (60 kg).























What is This?

Posted: 30 Jan 2014 02:19 PM PST

Be careful because the answer to this question can change your life...



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This is a toothbrush bristle covered in plaque! Taken by a scanning electron microscope by Steve Gschmeissner.


Tomorrow: Join a Virtual Road Trip with President Obama on Google+

Here's What's Happening Here at the White House
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Tomorrow: Join a Virtual Road Trip with President Obama on Google+

Tomorrow President Obama will take a virtual road trip across the country via Google+ Hangouts to discuss the issues and policies laid out in the speech with citizens joining from around the country.

Want to come along for the ride? Find out how to participate.

Join us tomorrow for a Google+ Road Trip with President Obama

 

 

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President Obama's 2014 State of the Union Address

On Tuesday, President Obama delivered the 2014 State of the Union Address to Congress and the nation. If you missed it, be sure to watch the enhanced broadcast of his address, featuring charts, graphs, and images that help explain the policies and issues he discussed.

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Advance Estimate of GDP for the Fourth Quarter of 2013

Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers Jason Furman discusses today's report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, noting that economic growth was solid in the fourth quarter -- a testament to the resilience of American businesses and families.

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A Different Look at the 2014 State of the Union

The White House Photo Office put together a memorable set of State of the Union images -- including behind-the-scenes moments from before and after the speech, President Obama greeting Members of Congress, and audience reactions from during the speech.

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  Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Time (ET)

8:50 AM: The President departs the White House en route Joint Base Andrews

9:05 AM: The President departs Joint Base Andrews

11:00 AM: The President arrives Milwaukee, Wisconsin

11:40 AM: The President tours General Electric’s Waukesha Gas Engines

12:20 PM: The President delivers remarks

2:55 PM: The President departs Milwaukee, Wisconsin

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5:20 PM: The President delivers remarks WATCH LIVE

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