Central Perk: 7 nov. 2010

duminică, 7 noiembrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

World Bank President says Gold has Role in next Monetary System
Correct Translation of "Clueless" from German Reader; Geithner Backs Off His Own Plan
German Finance Minister calls Fed "Clueless"; G20 Showdown with China; Why Geithner's "Non-Plan" is Nothing but Hot Air
Sunday Funnies 2010-11-07 Reflections on Quantity vs. Quality
Police may boycott NHL's Winter Classic; Winchester Union Shoots Self in the Head

World Bank President says Gold has Role in next Monetary System

Posted: 07 Nov 2010 09:00 PM PST

The current dollar-based global monetary system known as "Bretton Woods II" is on its last legs. We all know it, but what none of us know is what will replace it.

Inquiring minds should be interested to discover that World Bank President Robert Zoellick mentioned a role for gold in the development of a new monetary system to succeed "Bretton Woods II".

Please consider, The G20 must look beyond Bretton Woods by Robert Zoellick.

... Fifth, the G20 should complement this growth recovery programme with a plan to build a co-operative monetary system that reflects emerging economic conditions. This new system is likely to need to involve the dollar, the euro, the yen, the pound and a renminbi that moves towards internationalisation and then an open capital account.

The system should also consider employing gold as an international reference point of market expectations about inflation, deflation and future currency values. Although textbooks may view gold as the old money, markets are using gold as an alternative monetary asset today.

The development of a monetary system to succeed "Bretton Woods II", launched in 1971, will take time. But we need to begin. The scope of the changes since 1971 certainly matches those between 1945 and 1971 that prompted the shift from Bretton Woods I to II. Serious work should include possible changes in International Monetary Fund rules to review capital as well as current account policies, and connect IMF monetary assessments with WTO obligations not to use currency policies to remove trade concessions.

Don't expect any serious movement along the lines of Zoellick's suggestion until there is a major currency crisis involving the US, Japan, or Europe. In the meantime, it is nice to see a role for gold floated in high places.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Correct Translation of "Clueless" from German Reader; Geithner Backs Off His Own Plan

Posted: 07 Nov 2010 04:45 PM PST

In German Finance Minister calls Fed "Clueless"; G20 Showdown with China; Why Geithner's "Non-Plan" is Nothing but Hot Air I quoted a Reuters article that called the Fed "clueless".

It seems there is a bit of a translation error to "clueless"

Michael from Germany writes ...

Hi Mish,
have been a follower of your writings for a very long time now - many thanks for all your work !

Please allow one remark to the "clueless" quote from German finance minister Schäuble.

While his comment was indeed very strong language for a German official towards the USA, the "clueless" quote is not the proper translation of what he said.

In German, he used the adjective "ratlos". Literally, that means "helpless", "at a loss what to do", "baffled", "perplexed". That is definitely less strong language than "clueless" - which I believe also implies that Bernanke does not understand how he got himself into the mess.

And "Ratlos" also does not have that colloquial touch to it.

Having said that, however, I cannot recall that German officials have ever commented any Fed decision less favourably than they did last week.

Hope that helps a bit,
Please do keep up your excellent work,
kindest regards from Germany,
Michael

Thanks Michael. Always happy to make a correction as appropriate.

Geithner Backs Off His Own Plan

As long as we are doing corrections, it seems Geithner, perhaps under pressure from China and emerging markets, has abandoned his plan to save the world via current-account targets.

Bloomberg reports G-20 Conflict Risk Eases as U.S. Says Surplus Goal Unrealistic

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner refrained from pushing for current-account targets while China softened its stance on the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing days before a summit of the Group of 20.

"It looked like there was going to be quite a lot of conflict or lack of agreement going into the G-20 but this suggests there may be a bit more accord," said Mitul Kotecha, the Hong Kong-based head of global foreign-exchange strategy at Credit Agricole CIB. "There is some toning down of the rhetoric on the Fed's policy but in return, the U.S. will be looked upon to tone down" its push to shrink trade and investment imbalances.

While the Treasury chief said last month that 4 percent of gross domestic product was "likely to emerge as the basic benchmark countries look to," he refrained from repeating that guideline in Kyoto. He instead noted policy makers have tried to address persistent trade and investment imbalances since the 1940s, and "it's a process that's going to take some time."

Since we have had problems since 1940 and since the problems dramatically worsened after Nixon took the US off the gold window, it is safe to point out that the process has already taken one hell of a long time.

Now that Geithner has backed down off a plan that cannot possibly work, there is less chance of fireworks.

This is what I wrote earlier about Geithner's plan ...

Geithner's Non-Plan is Just Hot Air

Geithner's plan to limit current account surpluses and deficits to 4 per cent of gross domestic product is flat out silly. Actually there is no "plan", just hot air.

For starters, why would the surplus countries who want to increase exports agree to it? Even if they did agree to it, pray tell what is the enforcement mechanism?

Unless Geithner proposes an enforcement mechanism that can actually stick, there is no plan.

The key point here is there is no enforcement mechanism, nor any discussion of one. There has been no enforcement mechanism since Nixon closed the gold window. That is all you need to know.

Thus, G20 will fail to accomplish anything. However, the show might produce some exciting fireworks for a change, given that currency wars have escalated.

Fireworks may be on hold. It's too bad. We needed some. Now all we are likely to see is a bunch of lies regarding agreements to agree at later date.

Fireworks would be more entertaining and with some massive fireworks there would be a better chance (although still slim) of accomplishing something.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

German Finance Minister calls Fed "Clueless"; G20 Showdown with China; Why Geithner's "Non-Plan" is Nothing but Hot Air

Posted: 07 Nov 2010 10:36 AM PST

Outside the blogosphere and into realm of high ranking government officials, it is rare to hear words like "clueless" to describe the Fed. That such talk is now occurring shows just how upset the rest of the world is at Bernanke's policies.

Reuters reports US Policy 'Clueless': German Finance Minister.

Europe needs to strengthen economic governance and agree on a permanent crisis resolution mechanism, all the more so given current U.S. economic weakness, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Friday.

France and Germany should maintain their leadership role in Europe, Schaeuble said, especially in order to harmonise its economic policy and bolster stability given current economic uncertainties.

These are being worsened by reckless policy in part from the the United States, Schaeuble said, sharpening his criticism of the Federal Reserve's program to buy an additional $600 billion worth of U.S. government bonds. Pumping more money into the economy will not solve the country's problems, he said, adding that the world needed U.S. leadership that was currently lacking.

"With all due respect, U.S. policy is clueless," Schaeuble said. "(The problem) is not a shortage of liquidity. Late on Thursday, Schaeuble said Germany would take up this point critically with the United States both bilaterally and at next week's G20 summit of industrialised and emerging nations.

G20 Showdown

The Financial Times reports China tees up G20 showdown with US

China has curtly dismissed a US proposal to address global economic imbalances, setting the stage for a potential showdown at next week's G20 meeting in Seoul.

Cui Tiankai, a deputy foreign minister and one of China's lead negotiators at the G20, said on Friday that the US plan for limiting current account surpluses and deficits to 4 per cent of gross domestic product harked back "to the days of planned economies".

"We believe a discussion about a current account target misses the whole point," he added, in the first official comment by a senior Chinese official on the subject. "If you look at the global economy, there are many issues that merit more attention – for example, the question of quantitative easing."

China's opposition to the proposal, which had made some progress at a G20 finance ministers' meeting last month, came amid a continuing rumble of protest from around the world at the US Federal Reserve's plan to pump an extra $600bn into financial markets.

Complaints about QEII Continue to Pile Up

The list of complaints about QEII is long and growing: South Korea, Hong Kong, Brazil, China, Volcker Complain about Bernanke's QE Policy.

Add Germany to the list.

Geithner's Non-Plan is Just Hot Air

Geithner's plan to limit current account surpluses and deficits to 4 per cent of gross domestic product is flat out silly. Actually there is no "plan", just hot air.

For starters, why would the surplus countries who want to increase exports agree to it? Even if they did agree to it, pray tell what is the enforcement mechanism?

Unless Geithner proposes an enforcement mechanism that can actually stick, there is no plan.

The key point here is there is no enforcement mechanism, nor any discussion of one. There has been no enforcement mechanism since Nixon closed the gold window. That is all you need to know.

Thus, G20 will fail to accomplish anything. However, the show might produce some exciting fireworks for a change, given that currency wars have escalated.

Addendum:

A German reader suggests that Reuters improperly translated the German adjective "ratlos" which literally, that means "helpless", "at a loss what to do", "baffled", "perplexed", as opposed to "clueless".

Also, Geithner is now backing off his plan to use current-account surplus mandates to save the world's economy.

Please see Correct Translation of "Clueless" from German Reader; Geithner Backs Off His Own Plan for details.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Sunday Funnies 2010-11-07 Reflections on Quantity vs. Quality

Posted: 07 Nov 2010 01:55 AM PDT

Reflections on Quantity vs. Quality

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Police may boycott NHL's Winter Classic; Winchester Union Shoots Self in the Head

Posted: 06 Nov 2010 11:18 PM PDT

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports Police may boycott NHL's Winter Classic

City police officers are threatening to boycott the Winter Classic in dispute with the Pittsburgh Steelers over holiday pay, raising questions about whether there will be adequate security at the nationally televised outdoor hockey game, which is due to draw tens of thousands of fans to Heinz Field on New Year's Day.

At issue is whether off-duty officers scheduled to work during the Jan. 1 Penguins game against the Washington Capitals will receive holiday pay, or 2 1/2 times their normal rate, which is what they are paid under their contract with the city to patrol on a holiday.

Even though it's a hockey game, the pay dispute involves the Steelers, who have a lease on Heinz Field.

The Steelers have proposed paying officers time-and-a-half, which is what they make working security at games that do not fall on holidays, said Sergeant John Fisher, who schedules 36 officers to work inside the stadium.

Mr. Fisher sent the officers an e-mail this week urging them not to work for anything less than holiday pay. He said he sent the note after conferring with Lieutenant Thomas Atkins, who schedules about 30 officers to work outside the stadium, directing traffic, among other duties.

"As of writing this, it appears as though we will not be working this event," Sgt. Fisher wrote. "Due to the fact that this is a major police holiday we have informed the Steelers and Heinz Field that the appropriate holiday pay rate is applicable. Heinz Field and the Steelers have balked at this rate and have indicated that they will not pay the same, they have taken a position where they want to dictate our pay rate to us and this simply cannot be permitted. ...

"I would implore all of you to stand together on this issue and not work this or any other detail, on a holiday, at a reduced rate. It would be unwise and foolish to break from this standard," he wrote. ...

What's unwise and foolish is for Pittsburgh to have an agreement with the police mandating double-time-and-a-half for holidays. It's no wonder Pittsburgh is having financial difficulties.

The Steelers ought to bid out security to the lowest bidder. I bet many private security guards would take the offer at time-and-a-half or perhaps even straight time.

Moreover, and not just for this event, Pittsburgh should outsource ALL traffic direction jobs to an outside firm. It does not take a police office to do this duty in the first place.

Public Unions vs. Private Unions

The problem with pandering to public unions is ordinary taxpayers suffer the consequences when politicians get in bed with unions. In private industry, when unions wreck the company it goes under. Alternatively, unions stupidly vote themselves into oblivion.

In a case of the latter, the Firearm blog reports Union negotiations fail. Olin (Winchester) moves 1000 jobs.

Olin Corp. is moving its Winchester Centerfire plant to Mississippi after the Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers District 9. Union rejected their proposed contract for the second time. BND.Com Reports Olin to move 1,000 jobs to Mississippi after union says no to new contract

The Clayton, Mo.-based company said that its Winchester Centerfire division in East Alton and the unit's approximately 1,000 jobs will be relocated to a new 500,000-square-foot, state-of-the-art plant to be built in Oxford, Miss. The relocation is expected to take place over several years.

The union voted "no" Tuesday in the revote -- 593 to 470. The union also voted against this contract on Oct. 17 by a two-to-one margin. St. Peters said most workers refused to accept concessions because they believe the munitions manufacturer has been profitable.

Winchester Union Shoots Self in the Head

Bang. Just like that, 593 out of 1063 voted that it was better to have no job than take a pay and benefit cut.

Heaven forbid union members have to give up a 5th week of paid vacation. Lordy! Admittedly the 7-year wage freeze Olin demanded sounds bad, but not when the alternative is working at Walmart or wherever for minimum wages (assuming jobs can be found at all).

The smart thing to do would have been to accept the contract, keep the job, and if the opportunity arose, take a better job elsewhere. Instead it's goodbye Alton, Illinois; Hello Mississippi.

Olin was the sixth-largest employer in the metro-east. It will be impossible to replace those jobs.

In general, Illinoisans don't seem very bright. This is proof: 33% Tax Hike Will Hit Illinois; Another Stiffed Illinois Vendor Stops Servicing State

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Seth's Blog : Do more vs. do better

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Do more vs. do better

The easiest form of management is to encourage or demand that people do more. The other translation of this phrase is to go faster.

The most important and difficult form of management (verging on leadership) is to encourage people to do better.

Better is trickier than more because people have trouble visualizing themselves doing better. It requires education and coaching and patience to create a team of people who are better.