joi, 22 martie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Atlantic Magazine Cover Proclaims Ben Bernanke "THE HERO"
"Eurozone Slides Back Into Recession" Says Markit PMI News Release; Sharp Decline in German Export Business; Misguided Decoupling Theories
FedEx Lowers Outlook Due to Tepid Economic Growth

Atlantic Magazine Cover Proclaims Ben Bernanke "THE HERO"

Posted: 22 Mar 2012 02:59 PM PDT

If you are looking for the most nauseating cover possible on Ben Bernanke, please consider the April 2012 issue of the Atlantic.

The cover asks the question "Ben Bernanke saved the global economy. So why does everyone hate him?"

For starters Ben Bernanke did not save the global economy. Making such a proclamation is like a football fans proclaiming victory at the end of the third quarter with the score 54-24 following a 24 point rally after being down 54-0.

Simply put, it is far too early to make a presumption the Fed "saved" anything given the global economy remains hugely imbalanced and highly vulnerable.

Furthermore, we can state without a doubt Bernanke is Inflationist Jackass, Devoid of Common Sense, and Clueless About Trade, Debt, History, and Gold.

Even if the game was over, why should any credit be given when we can say without a doubt the Fed caused the global economic crisis in the first place?

Once again I repeat ....

Bernanke: Why are we still listening to this guy?

The following video should make people think twice about listening to anything that Chairmen of the Fed Ben Bernanke says. It's a compilation of statements he made from 2005-2007 that will have your head spinning.

Please play that video. Bernanke proves over and over again he is a clueless jackass, devoid of common sense.

Proving that he cannot think clearly, Roger Lowenstein, writer for the Atlantic says "The visceral criticism of Bernanke is hard to fathom." Really?

Lowenstein concludes with "history may marvel that Bernanke has been a success".

Contrarian Cover Indicator

I suggest the cover for the Atlantic will prove to be as contrarian as the Time Magazine Home $weet Home | June 13, 2005 cover.

I used that cover to call a top in housing. Take that Atlantic cover as another huge contrarian indicator.

Given the enormous global imbalances that still remain were caused by the Fed, given that "too big to fail" has become "too bigger to fail", given that those on fixed income have been crucified by Fed policies, and given US deficits are over $1 trillion as far as the eye can see, the idea the "global economy has been saved" by the Fed is preposterous.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

"Eurozone Slides Back Into Recession" Says Markit PMI News Release; Sharp Decline in German Export Business; Misguided Decoupling Theories

Posted: 22 Mar 2012 10:13 AM PDT

Inquiring minds are digging into details of the latest Eurozone releases. The Markit Flash Eurozone PMI® says Eurozone slides back into recession as output falls at stronger rate in March

Both manufacturing output and service sector activity contracted in March, showing the worst performances for three and four months respectively. However, in both cases, the rates of decline were only very modest.

Output rose in Germany, but the rate of growth slowed to a three-month low to show only a marginal gain. Output meanwhile fell slightly in France for the first time in four months, and dropped sharply again in the rest of the region.

Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index at 48.7 (49.3 in February). 3-month low.

Flash Eurozone Services PMI Activity Index at 48.7 (48.8 in February). 4-month low.

Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 47.7 (49.0 in February). 3-month low.

Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Output Index at 48.8 (50.3 in February). 3-month low

Eurozone PMI vs. GDP

Core v. Periphery PMI Output Index

Incoming new business fell for the eighth successive month, deteriorating at the fastest rate since December. Renewed declines in France and Germany were accompanied by a sharper rate of contraction elsewhere (on average). The rate of decline of new orders also exceeded that for output, causing backlogs of work to fall for the ninth successive month. This is likely to put further downward pressure on output levels in April.

New orders fell at the fastest rate for three months in both manufacturing and services. Goods producers reported the steeper rate of decline, as falling domestic demand was exacerbated by a ninth consecutive monthly drop in new export orders.

Companies cut employment levels for the third month in a row, contrasting with rising headcounts over the prior 20 months. The rate of job losses was only very modest, but nevertheless the highest for two years.

Employment barely rose in Germany, contrasting with the strong growth seen throughout last year and showing the weakest increase for two years.

Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said:
"The Eurozone economy contracted at a faster rate in March, suggesting that the region has fallen back into recession, with output now having fallen in both the final quarter of last year and the first quarter of 2012. The downturn is only very mild at the moment, with the PMI signalling a drop in GDP of approximately 0.1-0.2%, and an upturn in business confidence in the service sector provides hope that conditions may improve again later in the year. However, firms are clearly focusing on cost reduction, with employment falling at the fastest rate for two years as inflows of new business continued to deteriorate, reflecting weak demand across the region.

"Even hiring in Germany has almost ground to a halt due to a further drop in new business, suggesting that the brief improvement in business conditions seen at the start of the year is running out of steam. French companies meanwhile reported a drop in activity for the first time in four months, and the first cut in staffing levels since last September. Germany and France look to have avoided a return to recession, but only by very narrow margins.

Sharp Decline in German Export Business

Let's now turn our focus on the vaunted German export machine. Please consider the Markit Flash Germany PMI®.

Flash Germany Composite Output Index at 51.4 (53.2 in February), 3-month low.

Flash Germany Services Activity Index at 51.8 (52.8 in February), 4-month low.

Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI at 48.1 (50.2 in February), 4-month low.

Flash Germany Manufacturing Output Index at 50.5 (53.9 in February), 3-month low.

At 51.4 in March, down from 53.2 in February, the seasonally adjusted Markit Flash Germany Composite Output Index indicated only a marginal expansion of private sector business activity. Output growth has now been recorded for four months in a row, but the latest rise was the weakest since December 2011 and slower than the long-run survey average.

March data pointed to a slight reduction in new business received by private sector companies in Germany. This renewed contraction in client demand means that total new work has now fallen in seven of the past eight months. The overall reduction was driven by a solid drop in manufacturing new orders, whereas service providers noted a modest expansion in March.

Manufacturers also reported a sharp and accelerated decline in new export business, suggesting that softer global trade flows had been a key factor behind the latest fall in new work. Highlighting a corresponding weakening of worldwide demand for raw materials, manufacturers pointed to the strongest improvement in suppliers' delivery times since July 2009.

Input price inflation meanwhile accelerated for the fifth month running in March, reaching its highest since June 2011. Anecdotal evidence widely cited higher costs for fuel and raw materials. Strong competition for new work meant that firms were generally unable to pass on the full extent of these price rises to clients in March.

Tim Moore, Senior Economist at Markit said: "A slight stumble for Germany's private sector in March, meaning the survey is tracking a modest GDP rise of around 0.2% over the first quarter. While perhaps a disappointment given the strong upward momentum at the very start of 2012, this would still mean Germany avoiding the double-dip recession that hangs over the euro area at large."

Key Points

Manufacturers also reported a sharp and accelerated decline in new export business
Renewed contraction in client demand means that total new work has now fallen in seven of the past eight months.
Strong competition for new work meant that firms were generally unable to pass on the full extent of these price rises to clients in March.

What's with the Markit "Pollyanna" Forecasts?

This month Markit is talking about Germany avoiding a recession. Even more amazingly, just last month Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said:

"A retreat back below the 50.0 no-change level for the Eurozone PMI is a disappointment, and highlights the ongoing risk that the region may be sliding back into recession. Although business conditions are showing signs of stabilising so far this year, which represents a marked improvement on the widespread deepening gloom seen late last year, the Eurozone is by no means out of the woods. Demand needs to improve considerably in coming months before we can safely say that the region will return to anything like reasonable growth.

Sharp divergences in performance also continued to be evident across the region, with modest growth in Germany contrasting with a steep decline in the periphery. Given the lack of domestic demand in austerity-hit peripheral countries, this divergence looks set to continue for some time."

My response in Eurozone PMI "Worse Than Expected" and Back in Contraction; Expect German-Periphery Divergence to Resolve to the Downside for Germany was as follows.

Expect German-Periphery Divergence to Resolve to the Downside for Germany

The idea that Europe can avoid a recession is complete silliness. Europe is clearly in a recession already.

The amazing thing is things have not deteriorated more than they have. Unlike the Chief Economist at Markit, I expect the divergence to resolve to the downside for Germany, not for the divergence to continue for some time. Given conditions in Europe and Asia, the odds that Germany is immune from the global slowdown are essentially zero.

Notes on Misguided Decoupling Theories

Look for outright contraction next month in Germany and for economists everywhere to finally throw in the towel on the half-baked notion that Germany can avoid a recess in austerity-driven Europe with China slowing as well.

The same holds true for the US.

The irony in the US is economists who expected Asia to avoid a US recession in 2008, now believe the US can avoid a slowdown in the rest of the world. Decoupling theories are as silly now as they were then.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

FedEx Lowers Outlook Due to Tepid Economic Growth

Posted: 22 Mar 2012 09:29 AM PDT

All is not well in the global economy and FedEx knows it. Reuters reports FedEx global economic view darker, shares drop

A strong holiday season and mild winter helped FedEx Corp beat Wall Street's profit forecast, but the world's No. 2 package delivery company warned that it had lowered its outlook for the rest of this year due to tepid economic growth.

"The fourth quarter is still very good, but what we're seeing at the moment ... is we just don't have as strong an economy as we would have hoped it would be a year ago," Chief Financial Officer Alan Graf told analysts on a conference call.

"The economic environment and the elasticity that we're seeing on our premium services due to high fuel costs are dampening momentum a bit."

The company said more expensive fuel was prompting customers to choose to ship goods by truck rather than air to save money.

FedEx is undergoing a fleet upgrade to improve fuel efficiency, having announced in December that it was buying new Boeing aircraft to replace some aging planes and delaying delivery of others to cut expenses.

Graf said FedEx will continue to reduce flight hours and park planes in the desert until economic conditions improve.

The massive volume of goods moved by FedEx makes its shipping trends a bellwether of consumer demand and the pace of economic growth.

Expect more profit warnings from companies because they are coming.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Logic, Meet Google - Crawling to De-index

Posted: 21 Mar 2012 12:03 PM PDT

Posted by Dr. Pete

Since the Panda update, more and more people are trying to control their Google index and prune out low-quality pages. I’m a firm believer in aggressively managing your own index, but it’s not always easy, and I’m seeing a couple of common mistakes pop up. One mistake is thinking that to de-index a page, you should block the crawl paths. Makes sense, right? If you don’t want a page indexed, why would you want it crawled? Unfortunately, while it sounds logical, it’s also completely wrong. Let’s look at an example…

Scenario: Product Reviews

Let’s pretend we have a decent-sized e-commerce site with 1,000 unique product pages. Those pages look something like this:

1000 product pages (diagram)

Each product page has its own URL, of course, and those URLs are structured as follows:

http://www.example.com/product/1
http://www.example.com/product/2
http://www.example.com/product/3
http://www.example.com/product/1000

Now let’s say that each of these product pages links to a review page for that product:

Product pages linking to review pages

These review pages also have their own, unique URLs (tied to the product ID), like so:

http://www.example.com/review/1
http://www.example.com/review/2
http://www.example.com/review/3
http://www.example.com/review/1000

Unfortunately, we’ve just spun out 1,000 duplicate pages, as every review page is really only a form and has no unique content. Those review pages have no search value and are just diluting our index. So, we decide it’s time to take action…

The “Fix”, Part 1

We want these pages gone, so we decide to use the META NOINDEX (Meta Robots) tag. Since we really, really want the pages out completely, we also decide to nofollow the review links. Our first attempt at a fix ends up looking something like this:

Product pages with blocked links and NOINDEX'ed review pages

On the surface, it makes sense. Here’s the problem, though – those red arrows are now cut paths, potentially blocking the spiders. If the spiders never go back to the review pages, they’ll never read the NOINDEX and they won’t de-index the pages. Best case, it’ll take a lot longer (and de-indexation already takes too long on large sites).

The Fix, Part 2

Instead, let’s leave the path open (let the link be followed). That way, crawlers will continue to visit the pages, and the duplicate review URLs should gradually disappear:

Product pages with followed links

Keep in mind, this process can still take a while (weeks, in most cases). Monitor your index (with the “site:” operator) daily – you’re looking for a gradual decrease over time. If that’s happening, you’re in good shape. Pro tip: Don’t take any single day’s “site:” count too seriously – it can be unreliable from time to time. Look at the trend over time.

New vs. Existing Sites

I think it’s important to note that this problem only applies to existing sites, where the duplicate URLs have already been indexed. If you’re launching a new site, then putting nofollows on the review links is perfectly reasonable. You may also want to put the nofollows in place down the road, after the bad URLs have been de-indexed. The key is not to do it right away – give the crawlers time to do their job.

301, Rel-canonical, etc.

Although my example used nofollow and META NOINDEX, it applies to any method of blocking an internal link (including outright removal) and any page-based or header-based indexation cue. That includes 301-redirects and canonical tags (rel-canonical). To process those signals, Google has to crawl the pages – if you cut the path before Google can re-crawl, then those signals are never going to do their job.

Don’t Get Ahead of Yourself

It’s natural to want to solve problems quickly (especially when you’re facing lost traffic and lost revenue), and indexation issues can be very frustrating, but plan well and give the process time. When you block crawl paths before de-indexation signals are processed or try to throw everything but the kitchen sink at a problem (NOINDEX + 301 + canonical + ?), you often create more problems than you solve. Pick the best tool for the job, and give it time to work.

Update: A couple of commenters pointed out that you can use XML sitemaps to encourage Google to recrawl pages with no internal links. That's a good point and one I honestly forgot to mention. While internal links are still more powerful, an XML sitemap with the nofollow'ed (or removed) URLs can help speed the process. This is especially effective when it's not possible to put the URLs back in place (a total redesign, for example).

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We did the math

Good morning --

Every day, you and your family make choices about how you spend your money and what investments you make. Leaders in Congress do the same thing when they draw up their budgets for the country. And if you spend some time with their plans, you learn what they value, you see the type of country they want America to be.

So when Congressman Paul Ryan put out a new budget for the House Republicans this week, we spent some time with it. We took a careful look and did the math.

Here's what we learned.

Republicans in Washington want to give millionaires and billionaires an average tax break of at least $150,000. They want to pay for those tax cuts by slashing programs that create jobs and protect our children, our seniors, and the veterans who have fought for the country. They want to end Medicare as we know it. And they want to undercut our economic strength by rolling back key investments in education, research, and our nation's roads and bridges.

President Obama believes we need to live within our means and that's why he put forward a balanced plan that reduces the deficit by more than $4 trillion. But the plan put forward by the GOP fails that test of balance.

To show you what we mean, we've put together an infographic that breaks out the kinds of priorities we'd have to give up for the $150,000 tax break that Republicans want to give to the nation's millionaires and billionaires.

Check it out below and forward this message to your friends.

The more people who share it, the more folks will understand what's at stake and how we can do better for the middle class.

Thanks,

David

David Plouffe
Senior Advisor to the President

This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com.
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Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House

The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

Seth's Blog : 2 new articles

Clearing the decks

SwissMiss points to a great infographic about how professional photographers actually spend their time.

Part of the magic (and the risk) of the internet is that if you want to, you can use your access to tools, markets and media to go even further in the direction of the chart on the right. You can become your own booker, accountant, publicist and more. Hey, it's free! You get to keep all the money!

Of course, it also means you don't get to spend very much time at all doing what you set out to do in the first place, which is shoot pictures, or write music or coach or whatever it was.

The other thing you can do is find the guts and resources to move even more to the left. Hire other people (at huge expense) to do all those things you certainly could do on your own, so you can actually do the work you were born to do.

One thing to consider: finding and retaining a great salesperson is more difficult than you might think, since a great salesperson might very well contribute even more value than you do.

• Email to a friend •

Confidence without guts

Too many MBAs are sent into the world with bravado and enthusiasm and confidence.

The problem is that they also lack guts.

Guts is the willingness to lose. To be proven wrong, or to fail.

No one taught them guts in school. So much money at stake, so much focus on the numbers and on moving up the ladder, it never occurs to anyone to talk about the value of failure, of smart risk, of taking a leap when there are no guarantees.

It's easy to be confident when you have everything aligned, when the moment is perfect. It's also not particularly useful.

• Email to a friend •

joi, 22 martie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Logic, Meet Google - Crawling to De-index

Logic, Meet Google - Crawling to De-index

Scenario: Product Reviews

The “Fix”, Part 1

The Fix, Part 2

New vs. Existing Sites

301, Rel-canonical, etc.

Don’t Get Ahead of Yourself

We did the math

Seth's Blog : 2 new articles

Clearing the decks

Confidence without guts

More Recent Articles

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

joi, 22 martie 2012

Scenario: Product Reviews

The “Fix”, Part 1

The Fix, Part 2

New vs. Existing Sites

301, Rel-canonical, etc.

Don’t Get Ahead of Yourself

More Recent Articles

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

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