vineri, 9 octombrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

High-End Property Slowdown in Maryland and Texas: Where Next?
Export Prices Unexpectedly Collapse, Led by Agriculture; Non-Petroleum Import Prices Sink Most Since October 2009
Sorting the European Far Left from the Far Right: 10 Comments - Can You Tell Left From Right?

High-End Property Slowdown in Maryland and Texas: Where Next?

Posted: 09 Oct 2015 12:52 PM PDT

Correction: In what follows, I said initially said Virginia when I meant Maryland. Title and all references to Virginia corrected to Maryland. The person I quoted below said "MD" but somehow I spelled it out as Virginia. Apologies offered.

In response to Chicago Suburbs $1 Million+ Home Sales "Not Totally Dead" Yet; Rush for the Exit, I received emails from Maryland and Texas about slowdowns in those states.

Anecdotes do not constitute "data" but all three stories (counting Chicago) show significant weakness at the high-end in widely varying areas with distinct economic backdrop differences.

Paul from Maryland

Mish, I live in the Howard County, Maryland. It's the 4th wealthiest county in the US. We recently had a presentation by a Realtor on the state of the market. It's still a very strong seller's market in the $600K and below range. Inventory is around 2.5 months on a 3 month rolling average basis.

However, the high end is abysmal. Houses asking $2.5M+ are not selling at all. There are 20 on the market with no sales. In the $1M to $2.5M category, 293 are up for sale, with only 27sold, a weak showing.

A friend of mine who lives in a high end area told me about a neighbor who had asked $1.5M and sold for $850K. The Realtor opined that that a recession next year was likely.

Paul

Aaron From Texas

Hello Mish,

Good article on Chicago. We are seeing a similar slowdown on the high end here in Houston, particularly in the Energy Corridor (West Houston). Right now Texas has a huge problem with skyrocketing residential property taxes. I was on the local news last night talking about the City of Sugar Land's latest exercise in corporate welfare as they gifted about $8 million in new tax incentives to Schlumberger. That's $8 million that will be strapped to the backs of homeowners who have no real access to due process to fight our corrupt appraisal districts. It's actually fairly easy for corporations to get a nice discount from the CADs because Texas is a non-disclosure state, and the CADS get roughed up when they are sued in district court.

Aaron Layman

Oh Those CADs

I gave Aaron a call. "CAD" stands for County Appraisal District. It seems the CADs go way out of their way to appraise business property low and home prices high. They can get away with it because sale prices are not disclosed.

Aaron has his own real estate business and a blog. He wrote about the Schlumberger deal recently in Sugar Land Homeowners Get Steamrolled.

In a second email Aaron wrote ...

Hi Mish,

It was a pleasure talking to you. Thanks for the call. We have a "Sugar Land" TX, but not a "Sugar Town". My market here in Katy is more directly tied to the Energy Corridor. We have seen a very noticeable drop in new construction sales here this year in Katy and West Houston. Builders were chasing the high end of the market, and now those homes priced at $500,000 and higher are not selling nearly as well. What a surprise!

Cross Creek Ranch was one of the nation's hottest spots for new home construction in 2013 and the first half of 2014. Now things are rolling over. 6 of the last 7 months have resulted in negative YoY prices. One of my clients was able to get $119,000 off of the original list price for a new spec home.

For additional background, I am not just a licensed, practicing real estate broker. I am also a licensed educator and frequent blogger. I enjoy writing, and I have become fascinated with the crony capitalism from the Federal Reserve and various levels of government. Our financial markets are now a comedic farce, similar to our warped & manipulated housing market. It is an absolute travesty what is happening in this country, and I am continually amazed at the lengths our politicians and apologists will go to as they attempt to whitewash all of the fraud that is taking place and keep corporate criminals out of jail.

Interesting times!

Best Regards,
Aaron

Sugar Land vs. Sugar Town

That's the kind of honesty that's going to get an endorsement from me. If you are in the Texas energy belt looking to buy or sell, Aaron appears to be a good source.

I had mistakenly referred to Sugar Land as Sugar Town in one of our email exchanges. Thus the correction, with an accompanying musical Tribute

Link if video does not play: Nancy Sinatra - Sugar Town 1967

Where Next?

High-end rot is apparent in Howard County Maryland, the Texas energy belt, and Chicago suburbs.

Where's the next high-end bust? I actually suspect they are happening all over the place. And if so, recall my earlier statement that the economy rots from the periphery to the core but home price rot starts at the high-end and works its way lower.

I propose housing is not as strong as the bulk of economists believe it is.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Export Prices Unexpectedly Collapse, Led by Agriculture; Non-Petroleum Import Prices Sink Most Since October 2009

Posted: 09 Oct 2015 09:07 AM PDT

Economists expected export prices to drop by 0.2%. Instead they fell 0.7%, outside the range of any Econoday Import/Export Estimate.

A bounce back for petroleum prices helped to limit import-price contraction in September, coming in at only minus 0.1 percent. But contraction in export prices, where agriculture and not petroleum is the wild card, was very heavy, at minus 0.7 percent in the month. Year-on-year rates are very weak, still in the double-digits for imports at minus 10.7 percent and at minus 7.4 percent for exports.

A striking detail on the import side is slightly deepening year-on-year contraction in various core readings, still in the low to mid single digits with non-petroleum down 3.3 percent. This is the largest decline since October 2009 and points to fundamental price weakness for imports, in part a function of the strong currency which is giving U.S. buyers more for their dollars. Prices for petroleum imports rose 1.1 percent in the month, a welcome positive for the Fed's efforts to raise inflation but still a fraction of the giant 11.8 and 6.6 percent declines of the prior two months.

On the export side, prices of agricultural goods fell 1.1 percent and are down a stiff 13.5 percent year-on-year in news that is not welcome in the farm sector. Non-agricultural export prices fell 0.6 percent in the month with the year-on-year rate also speaking to fundamental price weakness, at minus 6.7 percent in what is record weakness.

But the price bounce for petroleum is a reminder that the great price drag from this year's oil rout may have run its course, especially given this month's early strength in oil prices. Still, this is a weak report that underscores the strong dollar's negative-price effects on imports.

Welcome Rise

Once again, the economic cheerleaders are praising price inflation. Bear in mind, this same group of cheerleaders have said all along that falling oil prices were a good thing because consumers would spend the money elsewhere.

Thus, falling oil prices are good, and so are rising oil prices. Do these people read what they write?

Off the Chart - Import Prices

Import prices are now down 14 consecutive months, year-over-year, literally "off the chart" as shown from the BLS Report on Import/Export Prices.

The last time year-over-year import prices rose was for the 12-month period ending July 2014.

Off the Chart - Export Prices

Year-over-Year export prices are also "off the chart", albeit for one month less.

Prices for U.S. exports fell 0.7 percent in September, following a 1.4-percent drop the previous month. Falling agricultural and nonagricultural export prices each contributed to the September and August declines. The price index for overall exports fell 7.4 percent over the past year, the largest year-over-year decrease for the index since an 8.3-percent drop for the 12 months ended July 2009.

Agricultural export prices declined 1.1 percent in September, after falling 2.5 percent in August. The decrease was mostly the result of an 8.3-percent drop in soybean prices, although a 4.3-percent decline in nut prices also contributed to falling export agricultural prices. The price index for agricultural exports decreased 13.5 percent for the year ended in September. Declining prices for meat, soybeans, and wheat over the past year primarily drove the drop.

Soybeans

Live Cattle

Word About "The Unexpected"

One might think that economists estimating export prices would be following the price of grains, soybeans, cattle, etc.

Do they? Or do they just pull guesses out of the air?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Sorting the European Far Left from the Far Right: 10 Comments - Can You Tell Left From Right?

Posted: 09 Oct 2015 07:57 AM PDT

In recent speeches in European parliament, press articles, or tweets can you tell whether the listed statements below were from the far left or the far right?

Here are the candidates.

Quiz statements below are as presented in Spanish newspaper Libre Mercado. I made slight translation changes for ease in reading, some from Google translate, some from translate.com. I also removed an identifying political party reference from one statement.

A key phrase in each statement has an identifying link. Without looking, who said what?

"We are participating in a spiral of endless austerity to save the euro and the German model of low wages"
"The people reject EU finance ministers which dictate how solidarity and living conditions have to be understood"
"Under pressure from Germany, the will of the Greek people has been trampled."
"The interest in our country is not to abdicate to Mr. Schauble to set the continent's economic policy. The interest of our country is not subject to a firm policy in Berlin, Brussels and Washington."
"The real sword hanging over our heads is austerity, and under austerity we fail to defend our values."
"Thank you, Mrs. Merkel come with your vice-chancellor, administer of the province of France, Francois Hollande."
"To the grand coalition that governs us: Merkel and Hollande, we deserve an alternative in Europe."
"Austerity is synonymous with massive unemployment, insecurity and the collapse of our welfare system. "
"The Eurogroup has brutally blackmailed Greece but despite that, the Greek people have not lost confidence in Syriza"
"The defense of German interests do not justify the subjugation of other European peoples. Your model [Merkel and Hollande] is subjugation to the US, austerity and unfair competition."

Far Right - Marine Le Pen: 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 10
Far Left - Gabi Zimmer - 2, 5, 9
Far Left - Pablo Iglesias - 7

Statement 7 originally said "To the grand coalition that governs us: Merkel and Hollande, and to PP and PSOE, we deserve an alternative in Europe."

This was not an easy quiz. In fact, unless one heard the speeches or followed the tweets, it was damn near impossible. And that's precisely the point.

The far left and far right are both fed up with the EU. Some positions are indistinguishable.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Damn Cool Pics

Movies That Totally Tanked At The Box Office

Posted: 09 Oct 2015 05:51 PM PDT

The people who made these films had high hopes for them but when it came time to perform at the box office, they ended up becoming massive failures.

The Lone Ranger (2013)
Estimated Budget: $225 million
Gross: $149 million

Battlefield Earth (2000)
Estimated Budget: $73 million
Gross: $29 million

Cutthroat Island (1995)
Estimated Budget: $98 million
Gross: $10 million

Gigli (2003) Estimated
Budget: $75 million
Gross: $7 million

Ishtar (1987) Estimated
Budget: $55 million
Gross: $14.3 million

Dudley Do-Right (1999)
Estimated Budget: $70 million
Gross: $9 million

Heaven's Gate (1980)
Estimated Budget: $44 million
Gross: $3.4 million

Waterworld (1995)
Estimated Budget: $175 million
Gross: $88 million

Catwoman (2005)
Estimated Budget: $100 million
Gross: $82 million

Mars Needs Moms (2011)
Estimated Budget: $150 million
Gross: $38 million

47 Ronin (2013)
Estimated Budget: $225 million
Gross: $150 million

R.I.P.D. (2013) Estimated
Budget: $154 million
Gross: $78 million

The Adventures of Pluto Nash (2002)
Estimated Budget: $100 million
Gross: $7 million

The Nutcracker in 3D (2010)
Estimated Budget: $90 million
Gross: $16 million

Monkeybone (2001)
Estimated Budget: $75 million
Gross: $7 million

Remarketing to People That Have Already Visited Your Website - Whiteboard Friday - Moz Blog

Remarketing to People That Have Already Visited Your Website - Whiteboard Friday

Posted by randfish

Someone visits your website once, doesn't convert, and goes on with their day. How in the world do you win them back? Well, the answer may lie in a topic we haven't discussed for a while: remarketing.

In today's Whiteboard Friday, Rand discusses how to get back in front of folks who have visited your site or engaged with your industry, new options in retargeted ads, and offers some best practices to follow.

Click on the whiteboard image above to open a high resolution version in a new tab!

Video Transcription

Howdy, Moz fans, and welcome to another edition of Whiteboard Friday. This week we're chatting about remarketing to people who've already visited your website and then left, or already interacted with your niche, your service, your community, and then gone off somewhere else.

This is actually pretty interesting. A lot of times when we talk about the organic marketing funnel—someone performs a search, they follow you on a social network or they see a tweet from you, a Facebook update and they come to your website—well, we focus a lot on trying to convert that person either to a customer or convert them to signing up for an email newsletter, subscribing to something, following you on a social network, or becoming a part of your community.

But there's actually a lot of data suggesting that the overwhelming majority of people who visit your website... I'll use Fitbit as an example here. Brad, one of Moz's investors and also Fitbit's investor, sent me a Fitbit recently, which is very nice. What am I at today? Let's see, 5696 steps.

A lot of people who visit Fitbit's website, I don't actually know this for sure, but probably about a tenth of a percent of them are converting to a sale or actually buying one of these things. Then, 99.9% are going somewhere else. The idea here is: What can we do to capture this audience again, to get in front of them? We know that at some point they were interested in our product or our service. We want to get in front of them again.

Retargeting

This is something we've covered a little bit, but there's actually a bunch of new options that have surfaced from the advertising and web marketing world that we should probably be aware of. A few of these include things like classic retargeting, aka we follow them around the web like a lost puppy dog. The ads that you see on the side of everything after you looked at that one pair of Zappos shoes that one time, and now you just can't seem to get them out of your head or your browser. Maybe someone's visiting The Next Web and if page X over here on Fitbit's website was visited in the last 1, 2, 30, or 60 days, we want to show this particular ad with a bid price of XYZ.

This is kind of cool. I think where retargeting has really become more sophisticated is in some of the options. We can filter and configure and modify this and model it in such a way that we can say if you visited this page but not these other pages, or if you visited these three pages in a row, we want to show you this. If you interacted on our site in this particular way, we can now do things with apps. If we know that someone has interacted with an app, we can start to do retargeting and remarketing personalized to them.

Moz has used a service called AdRoll in the past. There are a number of them out there. Obviously, Google has a pretty powerful display network around this, too.

RLSA (Remarketed Lists for Search Ads)

Another thing that has been around for a couple of years but we haven't talked about too much on Whiteboard Friday here is RLSA. That's remarketed lists for search ads.

This means if we know that Sonja visited—I think it's Tory Burch who's a fashion designer who designs a special kind of Fitbit—the Tory Burch page on Fitbit and then we know that she searched for bracelets or watches, even though bracelets and watches are something we would never ever want to bid on as Fitbit because we're not in the fashion category, but if we know that Sonya has previously visited a page on Fitbit or any page on Fitbit's website potentially, well, now that she's doing these fashion related searches, we might say, "You know what? Let's show our Tory Burch ad specifically for that product, which is a fashion product, in the search results in the ads there." That's pretty cool.

We can customize this in a ton of ways. You can imagine a bunch of different uses based on what people visited and then what they searched for. Of course, you can bid a lot higher for those types of ads because you know the prior behavior. You can also expect a much higher click-through rate and probably a much higher conversion rate from those ads because that person has already visited your website and is familiar with your product or your brand.

If you have their email address...

If you have an email address, or a social ID, or an app ID, or even a phone number actually, you can use Facebook and Twitter's custom audiences, which are pretty cool to do targeting specifically to people on Facebook or on Twitter whose email address you've uploaded. If a lot of people have signed up for your email newsletter or have started your product purchase process, maybe they went to Fitbit. They entered their email address to sign up, and then they never completed a purchase. We can get back in front of them using Facebook or Twitter custom audiences or using AdWords.

Actually, as of two days prior to us filming this, but probably a few days before, maybe a week or two before this Whiteboard Friday comes out, Google just introduced something called customer match in AdWords. You can upload an email list and then get it in front of those emails specifically when they're performing searches or across their display ad network.

You can do those via places like Retargeter and AdRoll and Google. Those are the CRM retargeting models and services. That's pretty cool.

Or their social ID...

If we have social IDs, for example, if you Facebook connect to Fitbit or if you connected via Twitter, I think you can also use Facebook's connection on Instagram for Instagram ads now if you're part of Instagram's ad program. A bunch of options there as well.

A few best practices before we finish here.

First off, whenever you're doing any type of remarketing or retargeting through any of these types of services, make sure that you have smart burn pixels and burn pages, meaning if someone finishes the checkout at Fitbit, don't show them the ad any more. You don't want to keep marketing to someone who's already completed that conversion process. Likewise, you probably want to have a burn after a certain number of days. If you can see that after 8 days or 12 days or 15 days you just are getting very low click-through, very low conversion, you know what, maybe it's time to give up on the ad.
You also want to be smart about limiting the exposure and/or changing the message. If someone has seen your ad four, five, or six times as they're browsing across the web, maybe you want to say, "Hey, let's either give them a new message or wait for them to visit again before we keep trying to advertise. Otherwise, we could be burning dollars and bids that could be better spent on other customers or other marketing channels."
We want to customize based on behavior. I think one of the big advancements here is that remarketing, when it initially came out, used to be pretty dumb and pretty basic. It was, "Did they visit your site? Then you can show them this one ad." Now people have gotten way more sophisticated, and ad networks have gotten way more sophisticated. We can say, "Hey, they performed this action. We only want to be in this network. We only want to do this if they've done this specific group of things in a row or completed these processes." That can really improve your click-through rates, improve your conversion rates, and improve your targeting.
Don't ever assign 100% credit to any one of these. Remember that whatever initially brought them to the website should receive at least as much, if not more, credit and investment than whatever brought them back to purchase. This is a way of recapturing folks, not an initial way. If you're assigning 100% credit, what happens is that you'll stop investing at the top of the funnel and soon you'll just be remarketing to the same smaller, shrinking group of visitors over time. That can get really dangerous.
Don't limit ads to sales focus only. If you know that you can convert from other sources, from content, from multiple visits, from someone signing up for an email newsletter, from someone attending an event, from participation on your platform or in your community in a certain way, you don't need to only market the product that you are selling. I think this is something where folks have gotten very narrow. You can see some innovative companies doing some really smart stuff in retargeting and remarketing, looking earlier in their funnel and saying, "Hey, we know that 30% of people who do this activity will eventually become a customer of ours. So let's also remarket this activity, and we can bid a third of the price of whatever we know the conversion leads to directly."
You can also try remarketing for really creative stuff. I've seen it for job ads, which I think is brilliant. If someone visits your Jobs page and you're having trouble hiring, hey, follow them around the web like a lost puppy dog. Get in front of them on their social networks. If they have been to an event of yours and you have their email address, you can now market through here.

Campaigns to influencers, I've seen some really creative content marketers who said, "Hey, you know what, we know that here's a list of journalists and bloggers that we've reached out to. We can take that email list and upload it." You need a minimum of a thousand email addresses for all three—Facebook, Twitter, and Google—for the CRM style stuff. Make sure that you have that many emails before you try and upload. If you do, you can get in front of those influencers with content. If that's leading to links and press coverage and stories and the bid prices are low, which they often will be, you may have some big advantages there.

Hopefully, I will see some very creative ads from all of you following me around the web. I look forward to discussion in the comments. We'll see you again next week for another edition of Whiteboard Friday. Take care.

Video transcription by Speechpad.com

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Seth's Blog : "No one clicked on it, no one liked it..."

"No one clicked on it, no one liked it..."

These two ideas are often uttered in the same sentence, but they're actually not related.

People don't click on things because they like them, or because they resonate with them, or because they change them.

They click on things because they think it will look good to their friends if they share them.

Or they click on things because it feels safe.

Or because they're bored.

Or mystified.

Or because other people are telling them to.

Think about the things you chat about over the water cooler. It might be last night's inane TV show, or last weekend's forgettable sporting event. But the things that really matter to you, resonate with you, touch you deeply--often those things are far too precious and real to be turned into an easy share or like or click.

Yes, you can architect content and sites and commerce to get a click. But you might also choose to merely make a difference.