Central Perk: 3 mai 2015

duminică, 3 mai 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

China Manufacturing PMI in Contraction: New Orders and Operating Conditions Decline at Strongest Rate in a Year

Posted: 03 May 2015 10:18 PM PDT

More signs of a global slowdown surface in the latest China Manufacturing PMI where operating conditions and new orders decline at fastest pace in a year.

Chinese manufacturers saw a further deterioration in operating conditions in April, with total new orders declining at the strongest pace for a year while production levels stagnated. Data suggested that relatively weak domestic demand was the main driver of reduced new business, as new export work picked up in April (albeit marginally). Consequently, employment in the sector continued to decline, while purchasing activity fell at the quickest rate in 13 months. Meanwhile, deflationary pressures intensified in April, with both input and output costs falling at accelerated rates.

Adjusted for seasonal factors, the HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single - figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – remained below the neutral 50.0 value at 48.9 in April, down from 49.6 in March. This signalled a deterioration in the health of the sector for the second successive month. Moreover, the pace of deterioration was the strongest seen in a year. Total new business placed at Chinese manufacturers declined for the second month in a row in April. Furthermore, the rate of contraction quickened since March to the strongest in a year

Weaker demand conditions led companies to become more cautious with regard to their production schedules, with firms leaving their output unchanged in April. This contrasted with increased output in the opening three months of the year. Purchasing activity meanwhile declined for the first time since January. Though moderate, the rate of reduction was the quickest since March 2014, with a number of respondents attributing the fall to fewer new orders.

On the price front, average cost burdens faced by Chinese goods producers fell for the ninth successive month. Moreover, the rate of deflation accelerated to a sharp pace. In line with the trend for input costs, companies cut their selling prices again in April and at a solid rate.

China Manufacturing PMI

If you are looking for a silver lining in the details, there isn't one.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Venezuela to Nationalize All Food Distribution, Increase Public Wages 30%

Posted: 03 May 2015 08:06 AM PDT

To combat food shortages caused by socialist policies including nationalization of half the nation's food supply, Venezuela to Nationalize All Food Distribution.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has promised to nationalise food distribution in the South American nation beset with record shortages of basic goods, runaway inflation and an escalating economic crisis.

During a rally on Friday, on International Workers' Day, the socialist leader allowed a union activist to ask for the nationalisation of food and essential-item distribution.

Various estimates suggest the government already controls about half of the country's food distribution, but that hasn't stopped record shortages in shops and markets.

Venezuela is struggling with a recession, 68.5% annual inflation and severe shortages of the basic goods that it relies on oil money to import.

On any given day, people in Venezuela can wait hours to get some subsidised milk, cooking oil, milk or flour, if they can be found at all.

Maduro's government is strapped for cash in the face of a global supply glut that caused oil prices to collapse by more than 50 percent between June and January.

Nonetheless, Maduro also announced a 30% increase in public wages on Friday.

Way to a New Venezuela Home

In other news, Woman Who Threw mango at Maduro Rewarded With New Home.

A woman who bashed President Nicolas Maduro on the head with a mango has been promised a new house for her troubles in a surreal tropical tale that has gone viral in Venezuela.

The 52-year-old president was driving a bus through a crowd last weekend in the central state of Aragua when someone in the crowd tossed the fruit at him.

"It says: 'If you can, call me'," the former bus driver said later during the week, as he displayed the fruit with a name and phone number scrawled on it on television.

"Marleny Olivo had a problem with her house. [Officials] called her. She was scared. She couldn't believe it was true. ... I've approved an apartment for you, Marleny, as part of the 'Grand Venezuelan Housing Mission'," he added, vowing to eat the mango.

"If for for a mango they give you apartments, then you know what to do: throw him a pineapple!" quipped Dolar Today, a website that quotes the black market for dollars and is hated by Maduro.

Apparently the way to combat inflation is to grant a 30% increase in wages. The way to a new house is to throw fruit with your name on it at the president.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : (re)Radical

(re)Radical

At the congregation down the street, they're doing things the way they've done them for the last few hundred years. Every week, people come, attracted by familiarity, by the family and friends around them, part of a tribe.

And just past that building is another one, a different tribe, where the tradition is more than a thousand years old.

This is not so different from that big company that used to be an internet startup, but all the original team members have long left the building. Work tomorrow has a lot in common with work yesterday, and the safety of it all is comforting.

Che, Jefferson, Edison, Ford... most of these radicals would not recognize the institutions that have been built over time.

The question each of us has to answer about the institution we care about is: Does this place exist to maintain and perpetuate the status quo, or am I here to do the work that the radical founder had in mind when we started?

First principles. The quest for growth, or for change, or for justice. The ability, perhaps the desire, to seek out things that feel risky.

All of us are part of organizations that were started by outliers, by radicals, by people who cared more about making a difference than fitting in.