Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
Posted: 05 Nov 2011 04:49 PM PDT In yet another attempt to pressure prime minister Silvio Berlusconi into promised reforms ECB debates ending Italy bond buys. The European Central Bank often discusses the possibility ending the purchase of Italian government bonds if it concludes Italy is not adopting promised reforms, ECB Governing Council Member Yves Mersch said.For starters, the ECB is already the lender of last resort. Moreover, one look at Portugal and Italy suggests the ECB is not having the intended effect. "Our job is not to remedy the errors of politicians" said Mersch. How true, if only they would practice what they preach. By the way, whose job is it to remedy the errors of central banks? Finally, does anyone find the ECB's bond threat credible? I don't. Italy Prime Minister Pressured to Quit Every other week or so, someone puts pressure on scandal ridden Silvio Berlusconi to resign. Pressure rose on Italy's besieged Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to quit on Thursday, as rebel deputies from his own centre-right party threatened to oppose the government in a vital parliamentary vote next week.Bond Buyer's Strike Coming Up? Reuters has the buyers strike idea backwards. It's a buyer's strike that pushes yields higher as opposed to a buyer's strike kicking in at some magic number. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
52% of Unemployed No Longer Receive Benefits; Average Duration of Unemployment is 40 Weeks Posted: 05 Nov 2011 10:40 AM PDT Yahoo!Finance reports Most of the unemployed no longer receive benefits Early last year, 75 percent were receiving checks. The figure is now 48 percent -- a shift that points to a growing crisis of long-term unemployment. Nearly one-third of America's 14 million unemployed have had no job for a year or more.Average Unemployment Duration Extending the program will not do any good for those who have already used up 99 weeks. The maximum is still 99 weeks. At the state level, the number of weeks varies. Participation Rate The participation rate is the percentage of working-age persons in an economy who are employed (or unemployed and actively seeking a job). Demographics (the aging workforce) affects the number, as does those going to college (or staying in college) because they cannot find a job. Those in school and not working are not considered unemployed as they are not part of the work force. Interestingly, if the students (or anyone else) work as little as 1 paid hour per week, they are considered employed. I believe a significant number of those who do use up all their unemployment benefits drop out of the labor force to collect retirement benefits. Such persons want a job but stop looking and go on early retirement just to have some money coming in. There are no official statistics on the early retirement idea that I just stated. The falling participation rate and the not counting as unemployed of those who want a job but gave up looking for jobs out of frustration has artificially suppressed the reported unemployment rate. Table A-15 Table A-15 of the monthly jobs report is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is. The official unemployment rate is 9.0%. However, if you start counting all the people that want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6. While the "official" unemployment rate is an unacceptable 9.0%, U-6 is much higher at 16.2%. For more details of the latest jobs numbers, please see US Payrolls Rise by 80,000, Unemployment Rate Drops .1% to 9%; Recap and Analysis. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
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