Central Perk: 14 feb. 2014

vineri, 14 februarie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

German Left (Die Linke) VP Claims "Euro Divides Europe, No Benefit to EU"
Industrial Production Declines, November and December Revised Lower; String of Unexpected Events Continues
MEPs Accuse Troika of Aggravating Unemployment and Poverty in Rescued Countries

German Left (Die Linke) VP Claims "Euro Divides Europe, No Benefit to EU"

Posted: 14 Feb 2014 01:56 PM PST

In a Ziet Online interview, Sahra Wagenknecht, Die Linke vice president and economic spokesperson, says the "The euro splits Europe" and there is no benefit to the EU.

ZEIT ONLINE: Ms. Wagenknecht, what is the biggest advantage of the European Union mean to you?
Sahra Wagenknecht: After the Second World War, the united Europe has brought peace. But ever since the Maastricht Treaty and the Lisbon Treaty, the European Union has developed in a direction that primarily serves the interests of big business and banks. ... Integration reduces the welfare of the majority in Europe along with growing anti-European resentment. We have 19 million unemployed in the south of Europe and a disastrous austerity policies, for which the European Commission is responsible as part of the troika. Entire countries are incapacitated and plunged into the social abyss.

ZEIT ONLINE: Do you agree your life partner Oskar Lafontaine, that Germany should withdraw from the euro?
Wagenknecht: He has not suggested that Germany exit the euro, but that a new currency system with stable exchange rates and capital controls in place of the Euro occurs. The euro as introduced, does not work, but divides Europe.

ZEIT ONLINE: What's the alternative? Return to the D-Mark?
Wagenknecht: It is clear that a resolution of the single currency must not allow exchange rate speculation. There must be institutions that hold the currency market stable. And it needs capital controls.

ZEIT ONLINE: You argue like the AfD.
Wagenknecht: I beg to differ. AfD top candidate Hans Olaf Henkel is a neo-liberal economic lobbyist who throughout his life seeks low wages and welfare cuts. The AFD is not for a social Europe.

ZEIT ONLINE: The Left Party is the AfD for the poor?
Wagenknecht: Nonsense. Even the middle class would benefit from more welfare state and a better wages.

ZEIT ONLINE: Is end the EU the only message of the Left Party before its European Congress?
Wagenknecht: That's not our message. We want a Europe that is socially and democratically and met, for example, the tax evasion by the rich and corporations with uniform tax rates at a high level. We hope that there will soon be a much stronger active resistance from the people of Europe and that the frustration just does not discharge in the election of right-wing populist parties.

ZEIT ONLINE: Will your party will discuss how to deal with military operations?
Wagenknecht: Of course. I find the current debate on more military involvement in Germany spooky. We've seen that the military operations in which we have participated, such as in Afghanistan, the people did not benefit. On the contrary, thousands of civilian deaths were the result. Humanitarians do not need bombs. German soldiers have no place abroad.

ZEIT ONLINE: What would happen if there were a new Srebrenica [genocide in Bosnia]? Would the green helmets then stand idly by?
Wagenknecht: Wars are never out of humanitarian reasons. Take a look a look at how conflicts arise in many conflicts, including in the Congo and elsewhere, European countries have supplied weapons and fueled the civil war. Some of these were proxy wars. And then come the arsonists. That's hypocritical, it's about raw materials and geostrategic positions.

ZEIT ONLINE: Between Left Party and the Greens and the SPD prevails a Thaw. The party leaders of the Left and the Greens meet. SPD General Secretary Yasmin Fahimi was open to joint coalitions. Is a Red-Red-Green coalition in front of the door?
Wagenknecht: It's good that there is finally calls. However, significant political differences remain. When I look at the policy that makes the SPD in the grand coalition, this differs significantly from what we want politically.

Setup to Watch

Eurointelligence had some interesting comments on this development, and I generally agree with the analysis.

We know that Sahra Wagenknecht was always critical of the German government's handling of the eurozone crisis. Now the deputy leader and economics spokeswoman of the Left Party favours the dismantlement of the eurozone. It is not the party's official position yet but her statement as reported in Spiegel Online marks an important political shift for the party.

Germany would then have two parties openly against the euro - the AfD and the Left. Her argument is that the euro splits Europe politically, that it disenfranchises states and impoverishes the majority of the people. As an alternative she is proposing a new fixed-exchange rate system with capital controls.

This is one to watch.

Despite entering a Grand Coalition, the SPD has now officially opened the door for a coalition with the Left Party in 2017 - and that position will either complicate or frustrate that process, or turn into a more general position of the left - depending on the politics of the eurozone crisis in the next few years.

We believe that her arguments are to be taken seriously - Ralph Dahrendorf argued on the same lines well before the euro was introduced. The eurozone has yet to demonstrate that the arrangement will benefit the people in the long run. The real danger to the future of the euro will not come from financial markets. It could come from a broader political realization that the euro has failed to deliver. Not everybody is ready to come to the same conclusion as Wagenknecht, but we should not be surprised to hear more views like this.

Capital Controls and More Regulation Not the Answer

Her arguments regarding capital controls, more regulation, and fixed-rate exchanges are complete silliness.

Europe does not need capital controls, nannycrat dictators, or fixed rate exchanges. Fixed rate exchanges cannot possibly work in conjunction with fractional reserve lending and other competitive currency debasement mechanisms.

Her arguments should not be taken seriously, but it's likely they will.

Nonetheless, Eurointelligence did mention the key idea "The real danger to the future of the euro will not come from financial markets. It could come from a broader political realization that the euro has failed to deliver."

The euro has not delivered and it will not deliver. It is fundamentally, and fatally flawed. Political bickering over banking unions, fiscal unions, freedom of movement, and literally everything shows the euro cannot possibly be repaired.

Repeating what I said in 2011 (and numerous times since):

"Eventually, there will come a time when a populist office-seeker will stand before the voters, hold up a copy of the EU treaty and (correctly) declare all the "bail out" debt foisted on their country to be null and void. That person will be elected."

All it will take, is for one charismatic person, timing social mood correctly, to say precisely the right thing at exactly the right time. It will happen.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Industrial Production Declines, November and December Revised Lower; String of Unexpected Events Continues

Posted: 14 Feb 2014 09:56 AM PST

This morning the Fed reported Industrial production declined. Moreover November and December were revised sharply lower.

Industrial production decreased 0.3 percent in January after having risen 0.3 percent in December. In January, manufacturing output fell 0.8 percent, partly because of the severe weather that curtailed production in some regions of the country. Additionally, manufacturing production is now reported to have been lower in the fourth quarter; the index is now estimated to have advanced at an annual rate of 4.6 percent in the fourth quarter rather than 6.2 percent.

Market Groups

Consumer goods fell 0.5%, the first decrease in six months
Consumer durables down 2.6%
Consumer non-energy nondurables down 0.8%
Within consumer durables, the production of automotive products fell 5.1% and the output of appliances, furniture, and carpeting declined 0.6%
Clothing up 0.5%
Home electronics up 1.1%
Paper Products down 1.0%
Business equipment down 0.1%, a third consecutive decline
Defense down 1.0%, a fourth consecutive decline
Construction down 1.0% following loss of 0.6% in December

Unexpected Happens Again

The unexpected decline in industrial production (the most since May of 2009) follows
The unexpected decline in retail sales which in turn followed
The unexpectedly weak jobs report in February
Which followed a Huge Miss in ISM; Largest Decline in New Orders in 4 Years
Which followed a Big Miss: Nonfarm Payrolls +74,000 vs. 205,000 Expected in January

Don't worry, it's the weather.

Economists did not know it was cold and snowy when they made all of those estimates.

Regardless, expect another lowering of GDP estimates as a result of today's unexpected news.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

MEPs Accuse Troika of Aggravating Unemployment and Poverty in Rescued Countries

Posted: 14 Feb 2014 03:19 AM PST

Via translation from El Pais, Members of European Parliament Accuse Troika of Aggravating Unemployment and Poverty in Rescued Countries

"They could have acted as surgeons, cutting superfluous. Instead they acted like butchers with an ax," says MEP Alejandro Cercas in reference to the policies that the European Commission, the European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF), the troika, that have been implemented in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus, the four Eurozone countries that were forced to request a bailout.

The report before the Committee on Employment and Social Affairs of the European Parliament adopted on Thursday morning does not use such harsh words, but blames the three agencies-known as the troika for policies that have contributed to the deterioration of the welfare levels in the four countries.

"The extremely difficult economic situation and adjustment policies have led to an increase in unemployment," says the text. MEPs regretted also that these measures "be designed without adequate assessment of their consequences."

The injury count after a long five years of crisis is substantial. The report notes that in 2012 the Greek youth unemployment exceeded 50%, but the latest data this percentage rose beyond 61%. MEPs regret that cuts in social benefits derived from the austerity measures are increasing "levels of poverty."

The report adopted by the committee on Employment, focused on the social consequences of the bailouts.

The European People's Party (the largest party in parliament which includes the CDU) has distanced itself from the conclusions of this report.

But watering down of the content will provoke a confrontation with leftist forces and prevent the Strasbourg plenary approval before the elections next May according to congressional sources.

Discontent is growing by leaps and bounds. That discontent will play straight into the hands of the euroskeptics in the May election.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

On the Top of the Shanghai Tower

Posted: 14 Feb 2014 10:46 AM PST

Photos from the top of the Shanghai Tower. It is 2,073 ft (632 m) tall.

Valentine's Day Cards of the Grumpy Cat

Posted: 14 Feb 2014 09:24 AM PST

Valentine's Day cards as you have never seen them before.

Watch: Here's How President Obama Spent His Week

Featured

Watch: Here's How President Obama Spent His Week

This week, the President hosted the first state visit for the French President in 20 years, signed the farm bill, and raised the minimum wage for federal contractors. That's February 7th to February 13th, or "The Red, White, and Blue -- and the Blue, White, and Red."

Watch the latest episode of West Wing Week:

The Best Way to Suck at Marketing - Whiteboard Friday

Posted: 13 Feb 2014 03:16 PM PST

Posted by randfish

When we take a data- and profit-driven approach to marketing, we can get so caught up in maximizing returns that we forget we're dealing with people, treating our customers as simple transactions. If we're looking for loyalty, we need to change that approach.

In today's Whiteboard Friday, Rand details the virtues of marketing for long-term success and moving away from that transactional model.

For reference, here's a still of this week's whiteboard!

Video Transcription

Howdy Moz fans, and welcome to another edition of Whiteboard Friday. This week I wanted to talk about something I see from a lot of marketers where we just kill ourselves, people. We're dying. We're really sucking at our jobs, and the reason seems to be very consistent. It seems like this is almost the best way, the most popular way to suck at marketing. I'll show you what I'm talking about.

So here's our marketer, and he or she has good intentions in mind, but he goes out and looks at every opportunity with the same lens on. So goes out and looks at partnerships and sees only the possibility of business development. Goes out and looks at other blogs and other places in the industry where they might contribute and sees only a guest post opportunity, a chance to earn a link. Goes and looks at their landing pages and sees customers, potential customers coming to their site and thinks only: "How many? What's the highest percent of those people that I can possibly convert to put in their credit card right now and buy something or make a transaction happen?"

They look at conferences and events and see only, "All right, how do I speak there?" Or "Should I sponsor it?" And "How do I get the most customers I possibly can out of that event? How do I get coverage from press, media, and bloggers? How do I turn this advertising placement into ROI? How do I turn these people on social media, who are interested in my topic, into people who follow me, become my customers, and amplify my content?"

This transactional model of thinking is actually really similar to how we do a lot of discussion in the marketing field. I'm guilty of this myself. I talk about: "Oh, well, if you're looking for folks on social media, how do you turn them into followers of yours? How do you turn them into amplifiers?"

These are important topics. They're good tactics, but this view, this idea that all these people are just a chance to make money, just an opportunity, it's almost like the prostitution of marketing. If you think about the difference between dating and paying for a physical relationship, they're thought of in such different ways. One has all sorts of positive and romantic and long-term associations in the world, and the other has incredibly negative connotations. I won't get into the morality of our different views on these things, but this same thinking applies in the marketing world. We've all been on the receiving end of it. We've all been these people who are reached out to by this transactional marketer.

Transactional marketing results in only one thing -- transactional relationships. Those transactional relationships are representative because every interaction is viewed exclusively through this "how are you going to become money for me," which is an ugly, ugly way to think and an ugly way to be thought of. We all can feel it when it's coming from someone else. It means treating people merely as conduits. They're conduits for either attracting or becoming customers. When you think in this model, you prioritize something that's actually dangerous to your long-term success -- your short-term success.

It's funny how the inverse correlation works. But if you're constantly focused on the short-term return over the long-term relationship or relationship potential, the transactional model means that people and customers are going to abandon your brand as soon as it's no longer the best transaction for them because they have no preexisting relationship. They have no loyalty. They have no love for you or your company or your product. It's merely, "What are you doing for me right now because I'm giving you dollars?"

No one is cheering for your success. That's so frustrating. How do you build a community? How do you build a social following? How do you attract an audience if no one's cheering for your success? These folks are somewhere between ambivalent and sometimes antagonistic.

I'm sure you can think of brands. A lot of times people complain about this when it comes to utilities. Think of your relationship with your cable television provider or with an airline with whom you've been very disappointed. These kinds of classic transactional models apply. There's no brand loyalty. Occasionally, when there is, it's so special, so unique, so rare and weird, that we talk about it and blog about it and tweet about it and share it. Perhaps the worst part is there's no long-term magnification.

One of the things that I always talk about, that Moz always talks about, and that we've had a lot of success in investing in channels of all kinds is that because there is a long-term focus, because there's a relationship that's being built, we are essentially biasing to get long-term returns over short-term returns. That means, over the long term, more and more people magnifying, amplifying, saying nice things, helping us out when they don't need to because they have that connection with the brand.

If you're missing that, the flywheel that you should be building with things like SEO, with things like social media marketing, with things like content marketing encounters too much friction, and it actually becomes a transactional model, just like paid advertising, and you lose a ton of the benefit that you would normally get from inbound channels. So don't do it.

Instead of doing this, I would urge you to seek common ground with every kind of relationship that you build and seek common ground apart from purely the relationship, although business and professional topics are certainly great places to start with those. If you can find the things that you have in common -- these two for these guys -- among any of these kinds of partners that you're interacting with and any type of outreach that you're doing, any type of relationship that you encounter, it's going to remove the purely transactional from the model.

The thing is it has to be authentic. You can't do this in such a way that you're sort of going down a checklist of, "Oh, yeah, hi Fred. It's nice to meet you. Are you also a Seahawks fan, because I am a fan of this football team?" It's insanity. It's obvious.

Authentically seeking out relationships as you're going relationship building, rather than biasing and prioritizing the transactional model, can be felt in every interaction that you have. Go out of your way to help. Go out of your way to help, and do it before you're asked to do it.

One of the things that I love to do is when I encounter someone who impresses me, a product that impresses me, a company that impresses me, I like to share it. Because I have a reasonably nice social following, that actually turns into a lot of amplification, and those people are often very appreciative. But when someone shares something of mine, even if they have five followers on Twitter, no presence on Facebook, they pinned something on Pinterest, and they have four followers on their Pinterest board, it doesn't matter. Especially if they're doing it before there's any kind of interaction or before there's any kind of ask from me, it shows me that they truly care and they value something of mine, and that feels good. That's a great way to start a relationship.

Don't negotiate hard to get every last penny. I think that one of the things that we're trained to do again as marketers is, in these kinds of marketing opportunities, we go out and we see, "Well, what's the maximum that I can possibly get? I'm going to push this other person up against the wall until they're getting minimum return and I'm getting maximum return."

This is actually a terrible way to build a relationship. Of course, it results in this feature where people abandon the brand as soon as you're not providing the best service to them or as soon as you're not the best transactional option for them.

So if you can follow these things and go and change the way you do outreach, the way you do social media marketing, the way you do business development, the way you do advertising placements, the way you do pitches, generally speaking, I think you're going to see a much greater return.

All right, everyone. Hope you've enjoyed this edition of Whiteboard Friday. We'll see you again next time. Take care.

Video transcription by Speechpad.com

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vineri, 14 februarie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics

Watch: Here's How President Obama Spent His Week

The Best Way to Suck at Marketing - Whiteboard Friday

The Best Way to Suck at Marketing - Whiteboard Friday

Video Transcription

Submit your site Free to Entireweb Directory (PR6)

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vineri, 14 februarie 2014

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