Central Perk: 27 mai 2012

duminică, 27 mai 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Spain's Plans to Recapitalize Bankia Will Put Germany, ECB at Risk; When Does the Ponzi Scheme Collapse?
Greece Public Finances Face Collapse as Money Stuffed in Mattresses; Swiss Eye Capital Controls as Money Pours into Switzerland; Understatement of the Month
April New Home Sales: The Hype vs. The Reality

Spain's Plans to Recapitalize Bankia Will Put Germany, ECB at Risk; When Does the Ponzi Scheme Collapse?

Posted: 27 May 2012 08:17 PM PDT

Inquiring minds are interested in the recapitalization plans for the Bankia. Please consider this chain of posts.

ABC News reports Spain's Bankia set for massive bailout.

Spain's fourth-biggest bank Bankia says it is certain of securing the 19 billion euros ($24 billion) in state aid it is seeking in the largest bank bailout in the country's history.

Bankia is considered key to the country's financial system, and a failure would contaminate the entire banking sector.

The plight of Bankia - which holds some 10 per cent of the nation's bank deposits - has added to the concerns over the massive debt crisis gripping Spain and the rest of the eurozone.

Bankia president Jose Ignacio Goirigolzarri has sought to reassure investors and the public about the future of the struggling bank at a press conference called the day after it announced huge losses, and asked for a government rescue.

"I am certain that the Spanish state will obtain the financing so we will receive the 19 billion euros. That's the commitment," said Mr Goirigolzarri, adding that he expected to get the funds in July.

Devil in the Details

Inquiring minds just may be asking "Just where is this money coming from?" That's a good question.

Reuters reports Spain may recapitalize Bankia with government debt.

Spain may recapitalize Bankia with Spanish government bonds in return for shares in the bank which last week asked for rescue funding of 19 billion euros ($24 billion), a government source said on Sunday.

Bankia could use the sovereign paper as collateral to get cash from the European Central Bank, forcing the ECB to get involved with restructuring Spain's banking sector, laid low by lending to property developers in a boom that ended in 2008.

ECB policymakers, who have pumped over 1 trillion euros into Europe's financial system in recent months, are resisting pressure to do more to shore up the euro zone.

"The biggest problem here is that the ECB could object. That's a legal issue, but technically it is possible," said Jose Carlos Diez, economist at Intermoney Valores.

Ponzi Financing

Got That? A Spanish government source says the plan is float what amounts to junk bonds, pawn them off to the ECB and use the proceeds to "recapitalize" Bankia.

Of course the ECB (bankrolled by Germany) is at enormous risk were this preposterous scheme to actually happen.

This is what I want to know: When does Germany say it has had enough of these preposterous schemes?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Greece Public Finances Face Collapse as Money Stuffed in Mattresses; Swiss Eye Capital Controls as Money Pours into Switzerland; Understatement of the Month

Posted: 27 May 2012 02:56 PM PDT

Lucas Papademos, the ex-technocrat prime minister of Greece says public finances face collapse.

Greece's public finances could collapse as early as next month, leaving salaries and pensions unpaid unless a stable government emerges from the June 17 election, according to Lucas Papademos, the technocrat prime minister who left office after this month's inconclusive vote.

Mr Papademos warned that conditions were deteriorating faster than expected with cash flow likely to turn negative in early June amid a sharp fall in tax revenues and a loosening of spending controls during two back-to-back election campaigns.

Mounting anxiety that Greece is headed for further political instability and a possible exit from the euro has prompted many Greeks to postpone making tax payments, and has also accelerated outflows of deposits from local banks.

Athens bankers estimate that more than €3bn of cash withdrawn since the May 6 election has been stashed in safe-deposit boxes and under mattresses in case the country is forced to readopt the drachma.

The finance ministry has halted repayment of value-added tax to Greek exporters, and slashed public investment spending by more than 20 per cent in the first four months.

Transfers to the health ministry to pay debts owed to hospital suppliers and pharmacies have been temporarily suspended, obliging patients to pay the full cost of prescription drugs for the first time.

The struggling state electricity utility PPC has received a €250m special payment from the budget to help cover a widening deficit. The utility has been hit by a sharp rise in non-payments of household electricity bills after the finance ministry imposed an extra "solidarity tax" last year that was added to the bills.

Understatement of the Month

"The situation is getting out of hand," said a private sector economist. Really? It seems to me things got out of hand long ago.

Swiss Eye Capital Controls as Money Pours into Switzerland

While some stuff money in mattresses, others pour money into Swiss Francs. In response Swiss eye capital controls.

The Swiss National Bank is considering imposing capital controls on foreign deposits if Greece leaves the euro, as the franc comes under heavy demand from investors seeking a haven in Europe.

The Swiss franc has come under increasing pressure since the Greek elections at the start of the month. Currency traders have reported unusually high levels of franc buying in response to the problems in the eurozone, which has seen the euro slide to its lowest level in nearly two years.

"We're preparing ourselves for turbulent times," Mr Thomas Jordan [head of the Swiss central bank] said in an interview with SonntagsZeitung, a Swiss newspaper.

"The situation has become worse in the past few weeks and the outlook has become much more uncertain. We're seeing a clear upward pressure on the franc," he told the newspaper. "Investors are looking for a safe haven. For many, that includes the franc."

I have said this before numerous times but it is worth repeating: If you have money in Greek, Spanish, or Portuguese banks, get it out now.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

April New Home Sales: The Hype vs. The Reality

Posted: 27 May 2012 07:51 AM PDT

Check out some of the headlines a few day ago following new home sales reports.

Detroit Free Press: April new-home sales increase 3.3%, pointing to recovery

"Americans bought more new homes last month, the latest evidence that the U.S. housing market could be starting to recover."

Fox Business News: US New-Home Sales Up 3.3% In April; Prices Rise In March

"Sales of newly built homes in the U.S. grew faster than expected in April and home prices posted a solid gain the prior month, adding to the increasing momentum for the long-struggling sector."

New York Times: New-Home Sales Climbed in April, Building Optimism

"The spring home-selling season got off to a strong start in April, the Commerce Department said Wednesday, with rising sales and prices providing evidence that a housing market recovery was gaining some traction."

San Francisco Chronicle: New-home sales rise in April

"Americans bought more new homes last month, the latest evidence that the U.S. housing market could be starting to recover."

The Hype vs. The Reality

After all that hype, let's take a look at the reality. To eliminate seasonal fluctuations, the best comparison is the current month vs. the same month in previous years.

Here is a chart from reader Tim Wallace that shows what I mean.

click on chart for sharper image

Being the ever-optimist, I happen to believe that home sales are in a bottoming process. However, a bottoming process and a "recovery" are not the same thing. A claim that a recovery is underway needs to be backed up with facts, not hype.

There is little evidence of a recovery.

We have heard similar recovery stories (all false), dozens if not hundreds of times. All were based on wishful thinking, gimmicks, temporary fluctuations, and shoddy reporting similar to what you see above.

Supposedly the "recovery gains traction". Pray tell what "recovery" is that?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Seth's Blog : Emergency room doctors

Emergency room doctors

It's a mindset, not just a job.

You can pitch them as hard as you like about having them work to persuade their patients to give up smoking (after all, it saves lives in the long run), but I think you'll find that they're a lot more interested in stopping the bleeding.

We need emergency room doctors, no doubt. I just wonder if we have too many of them in your organization. If all we do is reward fast first aid in what people do at work, is it any wonder we don't have enough attention to the strategy and choices that would eliminate the need for all that running around in the first place?

It helps to know how prevalent the "emergency room" culture is before you start training your people on a new long-term strategy.