Central Perk: 21 feb. 2015

sâmbătă, 21 februarie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

"Prepare for Full-Scale War" says Ukraine Deputy Foreign Minister: "With What?" asks Mish; Ukraine Lie of the Day

Posted: 21 Feb 2015 01:25 PM PST

I have been sitting on close to a dozen videos describing the massive damage in military equipment in the latest separatist surge.

For a description, but no videos, please see Debaltsevsky Under Rebel Control, Boiler Remains; What's Next?

I saw no need to post videos because to me it was pretty obvious this was a repeat of the devastating defeat of Ukraine last August in the Battle of Ilovaisk in which Ukrainian forces refused an offer to exit encirclement by leaving behind equipment.

Ukraine Lie of the Day

Today Ukrainian "Antiterrorist Operation" spokesman Andrei Lysenko says Since 2015 Ukraine Destroyed Nearly 3,000 Militants.

I have no idea how many separatists were killed, but the rest of the claim in the body of the article is preposterous.

"According to operational information and data provided by our scouts, since the beginning of 2015, in Debaltsevo area, the Ukrainian military killed 2,911 militants and Russian military. More than 40 tanks, 30 armored combat vehicles, about 30 multiple rocket launchers."

In addition, since the establishment of the cease-fire, that is, from February 15, we neutralized 868 militants, 8 tanks, 11 armored combat vehicles and four multiple rocket launchers.

Tour of Carnage

Does anyone in Ukraine or elsewhere believe the horse hockey by Andrei Lysenko?

If 3,000 rebels are dead, can we have some images? What about images of tanks destroyed? Images of anything?

If there were destroyed separatist tanks, satellites would pick that up.

Let's take a brief video tour of the actual carnage. Here is a short 1:32 video showing a destroyed tank, captured equipment and a Nazi helmet.

Link if video does not play: On the former UAF Position we Found a German Helmet with Swastika. That video may have an annoying 15-second ad.

Here is a 4:16 video whose title roughly translates as Ukrainian Media Officer and Recon Team Meets Fate in Debaltsevo.

Tank Battle Video

Here is an 11:28 video that describes "Details of the Tank Battle on the Night of February 18"

This video starts out slow. You may wish to fast forward to the 2-minute mark. It does not get really interesting until the four minute mark when you see more destroyed Ukrainian tanks and other equipment. You also see captured stockpiles of weapons. The heart of the video is the 4 to six minute mark but more destroyed vehicles around the 7 minute mark and another destroyed tank towards the end.

Abandoned Tanks

Let's assume for a second the Ukrainian forces managed to destroy a tank or two. If it pleases you, assume three or five

Check out this video of abandoned Ukrainian tanks, other vehicles, and munitions.

The announcer at the beginning ends in about 15 seconds. Some of the footage repeats but around the 3:00 minute mark or so it gets interesting for a second time. The video shows an entire Ukrainian army camp abandoned.

No doubt the soldiers wanted to escape on foot with their lives. Again some of the footage repeats so it's difficult to tell how many times and many angles some of the same equipment appears.

Regardless, we can say the separatists captured many "trophies".

Link if video does not play: "Ghost" Brigade Took Novogrigorovku Towards Artemovskii

I have many more of these, from many locations, some showing gruesome bodies. In the above horse hockey, it's as if Andrei Lysenko is describing Ukrainian losses not separatist losses.

Jacob Dreizin comments ...

Politicians and generals in Kiev have been making up statistics on rebel casualties and "Russian tanks crossing the border" (and denying their own losses) since day one. However, it's clear now that the Anglo-American press is finally wising up to this. Although they are not yet wise enough to attempt an aggregate total for Ukrainian KIA to date. I estimate this at 6000 since April 2014 as an absolute minimum. This is about 4-5 times higher than the "official" tally from Kiev. That's my minimum estimate. I suspect the real figure is 1000 or 2000 higher. This does not include those too seriously wounded to ever return to front-line duty, which may be another 50% of the total dead. In addition, Ukraine is prosecuting over 1,000 deserters. Those deserters must also be counted as troops lost. As for rebel losses, I estimate 1/4 to 1/3 of the Ukrainian total.

Ukrainian equipment lost in the "Ilovaisk cauldron" and the various mini-cauldrons last summer were replaced from mothballed Soviet-era stocks and to a much lesser extent from new production.

I believe Kiev has finally hit the wall. Its stocks are nearly empty. There's still enough ammo to fight for a few years, but in terms of equipment, Ukraine no longer has anything to replace what it just lost around Debaltsevo, let alone to seriously equip new units coming online.

So all of these new draftees they are now "mobilizing" will have to fight on bicycles. Either that, or American tanks. Or, Kiev will need to ask the rebels for a 3-year ceasefire while it produces enough new equipment from its half-ruined factories. Take your pick.

"Prepare for Full-Scale War"

Jacob's comment came in yesterday. Today we see this headline from Colonel Cassad: Ukraine Deputy Foreign Minister Vadim Pristayko Says Ukraine Prepared for "Full-Scale War."

According to Pristayko, Kiev "Ukraine is no longer afraid to come into conflict with a nuclear power".

Don't like Cassad? OK I have Canadian source. CBC News says Ukraine preparing for 'full-scale war,' says former envoy to Canada.

An envoy to Canada is one thing, and a Deputy Foreign Minister is another. Vadym Prystaiko is now Ukraine's deputy foreign minister. And he is begging Canada for weapons for obvious reasons.

Ukraine's deputy foreign minister says he is preparing for "full-scale war" against Russia and wants Canada to help by supplying lethal weapons and the training to use them.

In an interview with CBC Radio's The House airing Saturday, Prystaiko says the ceasefire brokered by Germany and France was not holding.

"The biggest hub we ever had in the railroad is completely destroyed and devastated," he told host Evan Solomon about Debaltseve, captured by Russian-backed rebels after the terms were to have taken effect earlier this week.

The former ambassador was in the room during the attempts to broker a political solution with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Minsk.

"Personally I don't trust him," he says. "You look at him and you think, 'Are you serious?'"

[Mish comment: And why the hell should anyone, including Ukrainian citizens trust Ukraine president Petro Poroshenko. Poroshenko has lied about the losses, the civilian casualties, amnesty, constitutional reforms, and damn near everything else. This does not condone Putin. It's a statement that lies are not one sided.

"Nobody knows what is going on in his head. I believe he is becoming very emotional [over the two countries' historic ties]," he suggests, calling Putin's intentions "difficult to predict."

[Mish Comment: I do not pretend to know what is going on in Putin's head. But what the F is going on in Poroshenko's head to not give a damn about willingness to engage a nuclear power? And if anything it's easier to ascertain Putin. He does not want NATO on his back porch any more than Kennedy would allow Russian missiles in Cuba.]

"We don't want to scare everybody, but we are preparing for full-scale war."

What to do in the face of such a threat? For starters, get over your fears, he says.

"What we expect from the world is that the world will stiffen up in the spine a little," he says. "Everybody is afraid of fighting with a nuclear state. We are not anymore, in Ukraine — we've lost so many people of ours, we've lost so much of our territory.

[Mish comment: Prystaiko now begs Canada for weapons.]

"We would like Canada to send lethal weapons to Ukraine," he said. "Weapons to allow us to defend ourselves."

Canada has been helping to train Ukrainian soldiers for the last decade, but it isn't enough, he says. "It wasn't on the level that would help our army [against an] invasion." Ukraine wants weapons, and training to use them, he said.

Prepare for Full-Scale War - With What?

Why is Prystaiko begging Canada for weapons?

Because Ukraine is out of weapons. Ukraine lost masses of weapons last summer in various cauldrons and were pounded again recently.

These idiots in Ukraine do not care how many of their citizens die.

Why should the US or Canada or anyone else care about a civil war in Ukraine? So what if Russia is backing one side. It's none of our business.

And now these jackasses are prepared to up the ante risking war with a nuclear power. They are nuts and Canada would be nuts to give Ukraine weapons.

Flushing Action

Should there be a Maple Leaf on the above leg as well?

War is Over

On January 29, in Conscription of People, Cars, Businesses in Ukraine for Mindless Slaughter; Entire Villages Leave to Avoid Servitude; Hop on the Bus Gus I made these statements:

This War is Over

The Vietnam war ended when public support turned against it, even though fighting continued long after.

The same applies here. The war is over. Hearts and minds have been lost along with the will to fight. Ukraine is split in two, barring a major military intervention by the US.

Even though the war is over, the fighting can continue. How much longer the battles go on now depends on the US and IMF.

The US can fund the bloodshed for a while longer and so can the IMF. US war-mongers may decide no price is too high to pay, even to the absurd point of engaging Russia directly.
The US and IMF can force true peace negotiations on Kiev with a partition or federation of the country. But, what may have been acceptable to the separatists and Russia six months ago may no longer be so.

Either way, Ukraine is never going to be a single country again. Such is the madness of arbitrarily drawing borders with no regard to cultural, political, or religious beliefs.

The war is over. Kiev lost, even with the backing of the US. Let the peace process begin before more lives are lost and more needless destruction occurs.

I believe that was an accurate assessment, and no one else called it.

Not only have the citizens of Ukraine given up the will to fight, Ukraine is out of military equipment and now begs Canada and the US for some.

For what? Why?

Ukraine is never going to be a single 100% united country again. Crimea is gone for good. Of course, Crimea was never really part of Ukraine in the first place.

There is still hope for a loose federation with what remains. But that requires 100% guarantees of amnesty and constitutional reforms.

Meanwhile, if the US and Canada send more weapons, so will Russia.

The US and Canada should both tell Ukraine, as did Chancellor Merkel, "the solution is political not military".

If that were to happen, and especially if the IMF demanded a ceasefire before agreeing to more funding, the fighting would end tomorrow.

You cannot fight war with no money, no arms, and no will of the people. Realistically, the war is over. You may prefer the term "decided" instead of "over". Regardless, all the US and Canada can do at this point is prolong the misery.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Mass production and mass media

Mass production and mass media

We invented televisions so marketers would have a way to run TV ads. We have magazines so marketers can run magazine ads.

Make no mistake: mass media exists because it permits mass marketers to do their job.

Mass production, the ability to make things cheaply, in volume, demanded that we invent mass marketing--it was the only way to sell what was being made in the quantity it was produced.

The internet, though, was not invented so marketers could run internet ads.

And, at the same time, mass production is being replaced by micro production, by the short run, by customization, by the long tail.

Just in time, mass media is going away too.

Mass marketers don't like this and they often don't even see it. They're struggling to turn Snapchat and Twitter and other sites into substitutes for TV, but it's not working, because it's an astonishing waste of attention.

The Ed Sullivan Show existed to sell Jello to everyone. Today, there's no everyone, and certainly no media channel that can sell everyone, cheap, to the folks who market Jello.

This is an ongoing challenge for mass marketers, and the opportunity of a generation for everyone else.

For fifty years, TV and TV-thinking was the shortcut. Make average stuff for average people (by definition = mass) and promote to every stranger within reach. It worked.

But mass is fading, fading faster than our desire to be mass marketers is fading. The shortcut doesn't work every time now, and the expectation that success is the same as popularity is still with us.

Fifty years ago, producers and marketers got smart. They saw the miracle of mass marketing and they adopted it as their own. They amped up mass production and bet on the masses.

The smart creators today are seeing the shift and doing precisely the opposite:

Produce for a micro market.

Market to a micro market.

When someone wants to know how big you can make (your audience, your market share, your volume), it might be worth pointing out that it's better to be important, to be in sync, to be the one that's hard to be replaced. And the only way to be important is to be relevant, focused and specific.