Central Perk: 8 sept. 2012

sâmbătă, 8 septembrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

No One Happy Except Stock Market; Discord Emerges in Spain, Italy, Germany to ECB Announcement

Posted: 08 Sep 2012 06:33 PM PDT

Discord Emerges

It's not just Germany expressing reservations about the ECB's plan to "Save the Euro". Spain, Italy, and Germany all have concerns about the plan launched last week by ECB president Mario Draghi.

Germany does not like the plan because it does too much (please see 54% of Germans Want Constitutional Court to Kill the ESM; Merkel's Disingenuous Reservations) but Italy and Spain are annoyed they may have to bow to the Troika to get bailouts.

Please consider After High Note for Euro Plan, Discord Emerges.

Greeted with initial fanfare by investors and economic officials, the unlimited bond-buying plan that the European Central Bank president, Mario Draghi, announced Thursday ran into immediate political problems in the crucial countries of Germany, Spain and Italy.

In Germany, despite Chancellor Angela Merkel's support for Mr. Draghi and the independence of the Central Bank, political and news media reaction was scathing, with accusations that the bank, in seeking to stabilize the euro currency union, was subverting its mandate to fight inflation and forcing debt upon euro zone members.

"A Black Day for the Euro," "Over the Red Line" and "Pandora's Box Opened Forever" were some of the German headlines, with the normally sympathetic Süddeutsche Zeitung headlining an editorial: "The E.C.B. Rewards Mismanagement." Even the German Bundesbank, officially part of the European Central Bank, put out a statement commenting acidly that the plan was "financing governments by printing bank notes."

At the same time, the two intended beneficiaries of the Draghi plan — Spain and Italy — expressed reluctance to ask the bank for help, even if both might eventually have little choice but to seek aid. The governments in Madrid and Rome apparently fear the political impact at home of bowing to whatever demands for harsh economic policy changes might come with the aid.

"Those who did everything to have the E.C.B. help now say they don't want it," Ferruccio de Bortoli, editor in chief of the newspaper Corriere della Sera, said in a Twitter message. "Speculation will play on this contradiction."

ECB's Dirty Work

German newspapers blasted the announcement, even typically pro-EU newspapers as per Der Spiegel article 'The ECB Is Doing Governments' Dirty Work'

The markets reacted to the announcement with euphoria. On Friday, the German DAX stock market index climbed to over 7,200 points, its highest level in 2012. Yields on Spanish and Italian sovereign bonds dropped, as well.

But the criticism of the ECB's course continued in Germany. Bundesbank President Weidmann reiterated his opposition to the move, saying it was too close to "state financing via the money presses." Alexander Dobrindt, general secretary of Bavaria's conservative Christian Social Union, said that the ECB must be "a stability bank and not an inflation bank".

The center-left Süddeutsche Zeitung writes:

"Rescuing the euro at any price could be an economic disaster -- that is the red line that must not be crossed. The other limit is the law: In a community based on law, the ends can never justify the means. A euro community that is based on constantly breaching treaties is built on a shaky foundation."

"On Thursday, the ECB unfortunately crossed both red lines. It did so reluctantly and not irrevocably, and yet it did so with determination. The purchase of government bonds by the central bank means that the ECB will tolerate and even reward economic mismanagement. (…) The crisis countries are not out of the woods yet. And that means that if the ECB provides them with unlimited help, then it is financing unsound states. It can only do so by printing ever more money. Ultimately, there will be the threat of bubbles, crises and inflation. It will benefit speculators, and the vast majority of citizens will have to foot the bill."

The center-right Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung writes:

"Draghi has made it clear that, from now on, the ECB will only buy bonds when a crisis-hit country asks for help from the euro rescue fund or agrees to other conditions. But that promise isn't new. The would-be saviors of the euro have been insisting on structural reforms for years. The recipients of aid make promises but often do not keep them. But what will the ECB do if, say, Italy does not carry out the labor market reforms it has promised? Is it going to start selling Italian bonds? It can't if it takes its own argument seriously, that monetary policy in the euro zone no longer functions properly."

"The central bank is getting tangled up in its own arguments because it has allowed itself to become the prisoner of politics. Since it is willing to make up for the failures of European politicians, it can not quit the bond-purchasing program."

"The leaders of southern euro-zone countries should be happy: They can continue to borrow at low interest rates and do not need to worry about finding investors. But the northern leaders are satisfied, too, because they can hide behind the ECB and do not need to face uncomfortable questions in, say, the Bundestag (Germany's parliament) about all the additional risks that Germany is taking on. In the euro zone, there is no longer a distinction between monetary and fiscal policy."

The conservative Die Welt writes:
"Every time the politicians shout 'fire,' the ECB puts it out. ..
"With his reference to a possible breakup of the euro zone, Draghi tried to justify the fact that he is trampling all over the ECB's statutes. In doing so, he is doing the dirty work for governments, who can slow down the pace of reforms a bit now that they are being protected by the central bank. At the same time, the ECB will get clogged up with government bonds from the crisis countries."

"The dangers of this policy are enormous. At the moment, it's not inflation that is the big problem. Rather, it is the redistribution of wealth from the north to the south in a completely non-transparent way and without political legitimacy. (The money is flowing) from the savers to those who benefit from this irresponsible monetary policy. This is undemocratic and antisocial."

No One Happy Except Stock Market

There are some favorable comments in the Der Spiegel but many additional negative ones that I did not excerpt.

Curiously, no one seems happy with the deal but the central bankers who hatched the plan and the stock market.

Of course the stock market always easy money, until things blow sky high like the 2000 dotcom bubble and the 2005 housing bubble.
Addendum:

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Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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54% of Germans Want Constitutional Court to Kill the ESM; Merkel's Disingenuous Reservations

Posted: 08 Sep 2012 10:03 AM PDT

Moment of Recognition

It appears a majority of German citizens have finally had enough of chancellor Angela Merkel saying one thing and doing another in regards to bailouts. They have also had enough of Mario Draghi and his policies.

According to Der Spiegel a Majority of Germans Want the Constitutional Court to Kill the ESM

Poll Results

54% want the court to reject the ESM outright. Only 25% want the court to ignore the Euroskeptics
53% are against transfer of more powers to the EU. Only 27% are in favor.
42% want Greece out of the Eurozone. Only 30% want Greece in the Eurozone.

Merkel's Disingenuous Reservations

Another article in Der Spiegel claims Merkel has also expressed reservations on ECB decision.

Merkel frequently says one thing and does another. If she has reservations, I suggest the reason is political expediency. Too many Germans are against the ESM for her not to express reservations.

Other German politicians are much easier to read.

For example...

CSU General Secretary Alexander Dobrindt reacted anxiously: "I stand by my warning that a public finance by printing is wrong and extremely dangerous." He could only urge Draghi strongly "not to open the floodgates for comprehensive purchasing programs." Dobrindt warned: "The ECB must be a bank stability and must be no inflation bank."

Sharp criticism of Merkel came from the opposition: SPD parliamentary leader Frank-Walter Steinmeier appreciated the decision of the ECB as a "document of failure" of Chancellor Merkel. You know "that in its own coalition has no majority for more bailouts," Steinmeier said in Berlin on Thursday. Therefore, the chancellor had assigned all responsibility for the euro bailout by the ECB. "What follows now is taking place with much reduced parliamentary control," said ahead of the SPD politician.

Even Green group leader Jürgen Trittin criticized Merkel. With their hardline attitude to the question of debt repayment pact Merkel, ECB President Mario Draghi have left no choice but to introduce as a pooling of debt through the back door, Trittin said on Thursday in Hanover. The danger now is that the German billion support for the bailout fund could be used up indefinitely. There were no strict rules for the use of aid

The EU treaties give the ECB the task of watching over the price stability in the euro area and set monetary policy. The financing of government budgets is the ECB therefore not allowed. Critics argued in recent weeks repeatedly, through the purchase of government bonds from crisis countries, the central bank financiers but indirectly budgets.

Court Ruling Coming Up

On September 12, the German constitution court is expected to rule on the ESM as well as the fiscal treaty chancellor Angela Merkel signed in March.

I believe bond purchases by the ECB are in violation of the Maastricht and Lisbon treaties which explicitly ban state funding. Nonetheless, I expect the court to OK the ESM with reservations and warning.

One thing that might influence a no vote is Mario Draghi's plan that allows unlimited purchases. Thus approval by the court is not guaranteed by any means.

Addendum:

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Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Weekly Address: Coming Together to Remember September 11th

Saturday, September 8, 2012

Weekly Address: Coming Together to Remember September 11th

President Obama marks the eleventh anniversary of the September 11th attacks by remembering the innocent lives lost, and honoring the first responders and men and women in uniform who have served and sacrificed to keep our country safe.

In the difficult years following the attacks, the United States has come back stronger as a nation, decimated the leadership of al-Qaeda, ensured that Osama bin Laden will never attack America again, and strengthened our alliances across the world.

The President has signed a proclamation making Friday, September 7 through Sunday, September 9, 2012 National Days of Prayer and Remembrance.

To join that commemoration, you can sign up for a service opportunity near you at Serve.gov.

Watch President Obama's weekly address.

Weekly Wrap Up

President Obama Speaks to Troops at Fort Bliss: Last Friday, two years after his visit to Fort Bliss that marked the end of the combat mission in Iraq, President Obama returned to speak to the troops.

"Now, when I was here last, I made you a pledge. I said that, as President, I will insist that America serves you and your families as well as you've served us," he said. "And there again, I meant what I said. Because part of ending wars responsibly is caring for those who fought in it. That’s why I wanted to come back to Bliss on this anniversary to reaffirm our solemn obligations to you and your families. You see, we may be turning a page on a decade of war, but America's responsibilities to you have only just begun."

Watch the video of President Obama speaking to troops at Fort Bliss, and read more about his visit.

President Obama Meets with Victims of Hurricane Isaac: On Monday, President Obama visited St. John’s Parish in Louisiana to understand the damage from Hurricane Isaac and meet with officials responding to the disaster. The President highlighted the “extraordinary work” done by local first responders who worked around the clock to rescue residents stranded by high water in a place that hadn't flooded in 17 years.

"Some of the folks that we just walked by literally had to be saved by boat. They were in their homes, trapped. The waters came in so quickly," he said. "But because of the great work of law enforcement, National Guard, Coast Guard, making sure that folks were out in rescue mode rapidly, even in some cases at risk of their own lives, no lives were lost."

Learn more about the President’s visit in Louisiana.

White House Beer Recipe: Over the weekend, Chef Sam Kass released the much anticipated White House beer recipes. After a lot of online buzz and a popular petition on We the People, the White House’s online petition platform, the White House decided to give America the White House Honey Ale and the White House Honey Porter recipes. Check out the behind the scenes of the home-brewing process.

White House Mobile App: On Tuesday, we announced some big changes to the way you connect with the White House. With the growing reliance on tablets and smart phones as well as demand for mobile access, we’ve relaunched the entire White House mobile program, making it even easier to see what's going on at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

First, we revamped the mobile version of WhiteHouse.gov, giving it a new look and making more than 99% of the site available to mobile users. We've also released new versions of the White House apps for the iPhone and Android, rebuilding them from the ground up and adding several new features. For the first time, these apps are also fully compatible with the iPad and Android tablets.

Inside the White House: Also this week, White House curator William Allman hosted Office Hours on Twitter, answering questions about the art and history of the White House. During the chat, he discussed who manages the art, the oldest piece in the building, the Obama family’s favorite, and more. Check out the full Q&A and take a tour of the White House yourself through the Google Art project.

3 Million Signatures Later: Recently, We the People crossed the 3 million signature threshold. The White House launched We the People last year, offering a powerful and simple way to petition the Obama Administration to take action on a range of issues. If a petition gathers enough signatures, policy officials review it and publish an official response. Many times, petitions posted on We the People have a real impact on policy-making. To learn more, check out a couple key facts and figures about the We the People platform, and view a map of petition signatures by location.

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Worth doing?

One reason to do something is because you get paid to do it.

But it's sad to think that this might be the only reason to do something.

Now that you've got a skillset and trust and leverage and a following and the tools to make something happen, are you going to invest your heart and soul into something that's important or selling something you're not proud of?