| New Rules for Italy Banks "I'll Guarantee Your Derivatives If You Guarantee Mine" Posted: 22 Oct 2013 10:46 PM PDT New Basel III rules require extra capital for derivative positions. Banks in Italy have already figured out a way around that rule. Eurointelligence reports ... We have been on the watch-out for stories that government and central banks encourage banks to continue to act as buyers of last resort of government debt. Here is one from Reuters, according to which Italy is planning to circumvent the Basel III requirement that banks must hold more capital against derivative contracts through which they hedge their exposures on government bonds.
Reuters has the story that the 2014 budget includes a two-way guarantee whereby banks and the state guarantee each others' derivative positions. Mutual Guarantees Reuters reports Italy plans to offer guarantees on government bond derivatives A new system of guarantees Italy is planning to introduce will make it cheaper for banks to negotiate derivative contracts with the Treasury over government bonds, potentially increasing their ability to buy Italian debt.
The move is linked to new Basel III international banking rules that require lenders to hold more capital against their exposure to derivatives contracts.
Under the new system, outlined in a draft decree linked to the budget law that parliament must pass by year-end, the Treasury and the banks will exchange cash sums on a short-term basis to guarantee their respective derivatives positions, based on their mark-to-market value.
The sums held as collateral will bear interest at money-market rates. Eurointelligence comments ... There is nothing technically or legally appalling about the two-way guarantee of derivative positions, but it nevertheless cements the absurd inter-dependence of the Italian state and the Italian banking system. The eurozone crisis resolution policies critically depend on banks behaving as national players. Everything we see is geared towards the maintenance of this extremely unhealthy situation. The leverage of European banks to their own sovereign debt is enormous. This mutual guarantee agreement encourages banks to continue the leverage party. Another opportunity to rein in moral hazards just flew out the window. Every bank in Europe will do the same. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Montebourg Announces Deal Between Goodyear and Titan to Save Union Jobs (One Problem - Goodyear Did Not Even Receive the Offer) Posted: 22 Oct 2013 05:17 PM PDT The politics in France get curiouser and curiouser (to put things mildly). On Monday, the Minister of Productive Recovery, Arnaud Montebourg, announced a deal between Titan and Goodyear that would save union jobs in tire manufacturing plants. The problem, and a significant one, is that Goodyear did not agree to the deal. Heck, the CEO of Titan denies even making an offer. Via translation from Les Echo, please consider Goodyear Amiens: new imbroglio between Montebourg and Titan It's a pretty mess that would be almost amusing if it was not hundreds of jobs at stake Monday, the Minister of Productive Recovery Arnaud Montebourg, told AFP that the U.S. tire manufacturer Titan had made a new offer of a partial recovery for the site of Goodyear Amiens Nord, which employs 1,200 workers, the closure was announced in January by the company management.
The proposal concerns the activity of agricultural tires and covers "333 jobs in the Amiens plant whose maintenance is guaranteed for four years," the minister said. Titan International would even be willing to invest "one hundred million minimum on the site".
Alas, Maurice Taylor, the CEO of Titan, contacted by AFP, declined to confirm this announcement. "I am not aware of anything related to your country of great wines and beautiful women," he responded ... Besides, "the management of Goodyear has not received any new offer" from Titan. Amusing Background This tire story has an amusing background. I wrote about it on February 19, in Incredible Letter from CEO of Titan to France Minister of Industrial Renewal, Blasting French Unions and USA: "How Stupid Do You Think We Are?" "Les Echos" received a copy of the letter which the President of the American Titan told the Minister of Industrial Renewal why he threw in the towel on purchasing the Goodyear plant Amiens Nord, in a very direct style.
"How Stupid Do You Think We Are?"
Here are some excerpts I transcribed from an image of the letter posted on Les Echos.
Dear Mr. Montebourg:
Goodyear tried for over four years to save part of the Amiens jobs that are some of the highest paid, but the French unions and French government did nothing but talk.
I have visited the factory a couple of times. The French workforce gets paid high wages but works only three hours. They get one hour for breaks and lunch, talk for three, and work for three. I told this to the French union workers to their faces. They told me that's the French way!
The Chinese are shipping tires into France - really all over Europe - and yet you do nothing. In five years, Michelin won't be able to produce tire in France. France will lose its industrial business because government is more government.
Sir, your letter states you want Titan to start a discussion. How stupid do you think we are? Titan is the one with money and talent to produce tires. What does the crazy union have? It has the French government. The French farmer wants cheap tire. He does not care if the tires are from China or India and governments are subsidizing them. Your government doesn't care either. "We're French!"
The US government is not much better than the French. Titan had to pay millions to Washington lawyers to sue the Chinese tire companies because of their subsidizing. Titan won. The government collects the duties. We don't get the duties, the government does.
Titan is going to buy a Chinese tire company or an Indian one, pay less than one Euro per hour and ship all the tires France needs. You can keep the so-called workers. Titan has no interest in the Amien North factory.
Best regards,
Maurice M. Taylor, Jr.
Chairman and CEO Perhaps there was some exploratory talk, perhaps not. Regardless, facts show the deal Montebourg announced is totally fictional. Whether or not some deal eventually transpires, Montebourg looks like (and is) a complete fool. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Treasury Secretary Pleads for Higher Taxes, More Government Spending, Big Farm Bill, No Cuts in Food Stamps Posted: 22 Oct 2013 10:58 AM PDT In a New York Times Op-Ed, Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew made a plea for more government and higher taxes. Of course, his title was not "more government and more taxes". Rather, Lew disguised his message by labeling it Lessons From a Crisis. Let's take a look at some details. Lew: Without question, the government shutdown and the debt ceiling impasse have led to economic hardship in every corner of the country. While we do not yet know the exact magnitude of the damage, these events have generated unnecessary headwinds for the economy. We should never again take this country to the point of near-default in order to exact political gain. We can start by hammering out a budget agreement that builds on the progress we have already made to lower our budget deficits. Mish translation: Without question, we can start by raising taxes. Lew: This is an opportunity to improve our nation's long-term fiscal health, and it should be achieved through a comprehensive package that shrinks our deficits, protects Medicare and Social Security for those who rely on it, and expands our economy well into the future. Mish translation: This is a welcome opportunity to raise taxes and throw more money at Medicare and Social Security. Lew: That means closing wasteful tax loopholes and making targeted investments to improve our education system, increase domestic energy production, and expand our manufacturing base. Mish translation: Let's raise taxes and target more money for education. Lew: We must come together to fix the blunt spending cuts known as sequestration, once and for all. These indiscriminate, across-the-board cuts, which went into effect earlier this year, were intended to be so mutually disagreeable that they would force Congress to find agreement on a balanced package of deficit reduction measures. Mish Translation: Let's roll back the miniscule cuts in the projected increase in government spending. To do that, we need a balanced package of tax hikes. Lew: Congress should pass comprehensive immigration reform. Mish Translation: Illegal immigrants are here to stay, and welcome. They vote Democratic, don't they? Lew: Another piece of bipartisan legislation that has passed the Senate, but not the House of Representatives, is the farm bill. Getting this bill signed into law is not only important for America's farmers and protecting America's most vulnerable children, it is important for our economy. Mish translation: Whoa! Don't cut food stamps. Ready to Rumble Over the Farm Bill Few realize this, but the biggest component of the farm bill is food stamps. Please consider Ready to Rumble Over the Farm Bill The first meeting of the House and Senate conference committee on the farm bill promises to be the biggest spectacle in American agricultural and nutrition policy in decades.
House Agriculture Committee Chairman Frank Lucas, R-Okla., who will chair the conference, would have preferred to hold the meeting this week. But the Senate, exhausted from the negotiations to end the government shutdown, is taking the week off, so the meeting is expected to take place the week of Oct. 28.
The biggest difference between the Senate and House bills is that the Senate bill retains the 1938 and 1949 farm laws as the basis for agricultural programs while the House bill would make the 2013 commodity title permanent law. Lucas wrote the change out of fear that it will be even harder to pass a farm bill in five years, but with most farm groups and Democrats opposed to it he will have a hard time prevailing.
Beyond permanent law, there are five flash points in the bill. Here is a guide to those issues and to the role that conferees may play in them:
Nutrition: This is the big kahuna of the farm bill. The Senate bill cuts only $4 billion over 10 years from food stamps—officially the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program—while the House bill would cut $39 billion through a series of provisions that Democrats say will lead to increased hunger. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, appointed Rep. Steve Southerland, R-Fla.—who has made food stamps his main issue and wrote the amendment to which the Democrats object the most—to the conference committee even though he doesn't serve on Agriculture.
Senate conferees are expected to oppose a big cut to food stamps, but two Republican senators who have been strong supporters of food stamps over the years—Cochran and Pat Roberts of Kansas—now face tea-party primary opposition and could feel forced to support bigger cuts. Roberts, who saved the structure of the food stamp program in the 1996 welfare-reform negotiations, has called for big food-stamp cuts this year while Cochran, whose state of Mississippi has one of the highest levels of food-stamp beneficiaries, has remained a steadfast advocate for it.
Lucas has said the size of the food-stamp cut will have to come from "on high," meaning Boehner, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., and President Obama.
Crop insurance: Costing about $9 billion per year, this program has become the pillar of the farm safety net and the biggest target outside food stamps for budget savings. The Senate farm bill contains a provision that would reduce crop-insurance subsidies by 15 percentage points for farmers who make more than $750,000 a year. Written by Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin, D-Ill., and Sen. Tom Coburn, R-Okla., it was adopted on the Senate floor over the objections of the Senate Agriculture Committee.
The House bill does not call for a premium subsidy reduction, but last week the House adopted a resolution sponsored by Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., to agree to the Durbin-Coburn amendment. Few if any members of the conference committee are likely to support Durbin-Coburn or other cuts and payment limits on crop insurance but are under pressure to come up with budget savings.
Commodity title: With both bills eliminating the $5 billion in annual direct payments that crop farmers have been getting whether prices are high or low, there will be a battle over the structure of a new commodity program. The centerpiece of the Senate bill is a program to pay farmers for "shallow losses" that crop insurance doesn't cover, although this year the Senate bill makes concessions to rice and peanut farmers who wanted an increase in target prices. The House bill is target-price-based, but includes a shallow-loss program. Lucas and Peterson are big advocates of target prices and the issue is whether Senate conferees from the South urge adoption of the House commodity title and how hard Northerners fight for their program.
Dairy: The Senate farm bill contains a new Dairy Security Act favored by dairy farmers and developed into legislation by Peterson. The House Agriculture Committee passed the measure, but it was amended on the House floor to take out what dairy farmers call a market stabilization program and dairy processors call supply management.
The sponsors of the House amendment—former House Agriculture Chairman Bob Goodlatte, R-Va., and Rep. David Scott, R-Ga.—were kept off the conference committee but Boehner so dislikes supply management he has labeled it communist and Peterson has said he worries that Boehner's enlargement of the conference committee to 17 Republicans and 12 Democrats could mean it will be difficult for the House to concede to the Senate on the issue. Farm Bill Predictions - A bipartisan effort by farm-state Senators and Legislators will prevent major rollbacks in crop subsidies.
- Senate Democrats will prevent needed changes in the food stamp program.
- Despite pressure to come up with budget savings in the farm bill, the best we can realistically hope for is that it does not increase the deficit by much.
Mish Alternative Food Stamp Proposal - Prohibit food stamp purchases of potato chips, snacks, soft drinks, candy, pizza, frozen foods of any kind except juice.
- Limit food stamp users to generic (store brand vs. name brand) dried beans, rice, peanut butter, pasta, fresh vegetables, fresh fruit, frozen (not bottled) juice, canned vegetables, canned soup, soda crackers, poultry, ground beef, bread, cheese, powdered milk, eggs, margarine, and general baking goods (flour, sugar, spices).
- Calculate a healthy diet based on current prices, number in the family, ages of recipients, and base food stamps allotments on that diet.
- In the interest of health and cleanliness, expand the food stamp program to include generic soap and laundry products.
My proposal will not only lower the cost of the food stamp program, the resultant healthier diets would lower Medicaid and Medicare costs as well. Moreover, my proposal would give people a strong incentive to get off the food stamp program without intrusive, costly big-brother ideas like drug testing which cannot possibly work for the simple reason that anyone who fails will steal to get food rather than starve. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Establishment Survey: +148K Jobs, Household Survey: +133K Jobs, Unemployment Rate 7.2% Posted: 22 Oct 2013 09:00 AM PDT Initial Reaction The establishment survey showed a gain of 148,000 jobs. July was revised lower, from +104,000 to +89,000. August was revised higher, from +169,000 to +193,000. The net effect was +9,000 more than previously reported. This was the third straight month of revisions. The previous two revisions were significantly lower. Perhaps the BLS has numbers they are happy with now. The unemployment rate dropped 0.1 to 7.2%. It's the household survey that determines the unemployment rate, not the establishment survey. So let's take a look at the factors. Explaining the Unemployment Rate Drop - Employment rose by 133,000
- Those in the labor force rose by 73,000
- The civilian population rose by 209,000.
- The Participation Rate (The labor force as a percent of the civilian noninstitutional population) was flat at 63.3%, a low dating back to 1979.
Employment rose more than the labor force, so the unemployment rate declined. September BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance - Payrolls +148,000 - Establishment Survey
- US Employment +133,000 - Household Survey
- US Unemployment -61,000 - Household Survey
- Involuntary Part-Time Work +15,000 - Household Survey
- Voluntary Part-Time Work -372,000 - Household Survey
- Baseline Unemployment Rate -0.1 to 7.2% - Household Survey
- U-6 unemployment -0.3 to 13.7% - Household Survey
- Civilian Labor Force +73,000 - Household Survey
- Not in Labor Force +136,000 - Household Survey
- Participation Rate +0.0 at 63.2 - Household Survey
Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey, not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.
- In the last year, those "not" in the labor force rose by 1,893,000
- Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 1,429,000 (an average of 110,000 a month)
- In the last year the number of unemployed fell from 12,082,000 to 11,255,000 (a drop of 827,000)
- Percentage of long-term unemployment (27 weeks or more) is 36.9%, a decrease of 1.0 from last month.
- The mean duration of unemployment is 36.9 weeks, a decline of 0.1.
Once someone loses a job it is still very difficult to find another. - 7,926,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work. A year ago there were 8,607,000. This is a volatile series.
September 2013 Jobs Report Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) September 2013 Employment Report. Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 148,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in construction, wholesale trade, and transportation and warehousing. Click on Any Chart in this Report to See a Sharper Image Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted  Employment History Since January 2009  click on chart for sharper image Change from Previous Month by Job Type  Hours and Wages Average weekly hours of all private employees remained at 34.5 hours. Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees was flat at 33.3 hours. Average hourly earnings of all private workers rose $0.04 to $20.24. Average hourly earnings of private service-providing employees rose $0.05 to $20.02. Real wages have been declining. Add in increases in state taxes and the average Joe has been hammered pretty badly. For 2013, one needs to factor in the increase in payroll taxes for Social Security. For further discussion of income distribution, please see What's "Really" Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution? BLS Birth-Death Model Black Box The BLS Birth/Death Model is an estimation by the BLS as to how many jobs the economy created that were not picked up in the payroll survey. The Birth-Death numbers are not seasonally adjusted, while the reported headline number is. In the black box the BLS combines the two, coming up with a total. The Birth Death number influences the overall totals, but the math is not as simple as it appears. Moreover, the effect is nowhere near as big as it might logically appear at first glance. Do not add or subtract the Birth-Death numbers from the reported headline totals. It does not work that way. Birth/Death assumptions are supposedly made according to estimates of where the BLS thinks we are in the economic cycle. Theory is one thing. Practice is clearly another as noted by numerous recent revisions.
Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2012  Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2013  Birth-Death Notes Once again: Do NOT subtract the Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid. In general, analysts attribute much more to birth-death numbers than they should. Except at economic turns, BLS Birth/Death errors are reasonably small. For a discussion of how little birth-death numbers affect actual monthly reporting, please see BLS Birth/Death Model Yet Again. Table 15 BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment  click on chart for sharper image Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is. Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation. The official unemployment rate is 7.2%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6. U-6 is much higher at 13.6%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years. Labor Force Factors - Discouraged workers stop looking for jobs
- People retire because they cannot find jobs
- People go back to school hoping it will improve their chances of getting a job
- People stay in school longer because they cannot find a job
- Disability and disability fraud
Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be over 9%. In addition, there are 7,926,000 people who are working part-time but want full-time work. Grossly Distorted Statistics Digging under the surface, much of the drop in the unemployment rate over the past two years is nothing but a statistical mirage coupled with a massive increase in part-time jobs starting in October 2012 as a result of Obamacare legislation. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Japan's Sexless Youth Posted: 22 Oct 2013 01:08 AM PDT Sexless Japan Here are some interesting points regarding social attitudes and demographics from a Guardian article by Abigail Haworth: Why have young people in Japan stopped having sex? - A survey this year by the Japan Family Planning Association (JFPA) found that 45% of women aged 16-24 "were not interested in or despised sexual contact". More than a quarter of men felt the same way.
- Population of 126 million has been shrinking for the past decade
- Population projected to plunge additional one-third by 2060
- Survey in 2011 found that 61% of unmarried men and 49% of women aged 18-34 were not in any kind of romantic relationship
- Fewer babies were born in 2012 than any year on record.
- Of the estimated 13 million unmarried people in Japan who currently live with their parents, around three million are over the age of 35.
- Married working women are sometimes demonised as oniyome, or "devil wives".
- Japan's Institute of Population and Social Security reports an astonishing 90% of young women believe that staying single is "preferable to what they imagine marriage to be like".
Lets dive into the article for some interesting comments and interviews. Ai Aoyama is a sex and relationship counsellor who works out of her narrow three-story home on a Tokyo back street. Aoyama, 52, is trying to cure what Japan's media calls sekkusu shinai shokogun, or "celibacy syndrome". Japan's under-40s appear to be losing interest in conventional relationships. Millions aren't even dating, and increasing numbers can't be bothered with sex.
Japan's under-40s won't go forth and multiply out of duty, as postwar generations did. The country is undergoing major social transition after 20 years of economic stagnation. It is also battling against the effects on its already nuclear-destruction-scarred psyche of 2011's earthquake, tsunami and radioactive meltdown. There is no going back. "Both men and women say to me they don't see the point of love. They don't believe it can lead anywhere," says Aoyama. "Relationships have become too hard."
Japan's punishing corporate world makes it almost impossible for women to combine a career and family, while children are unaffordable unless both parents work. Cohabiting or unmarried parenthood is still unusual, dogged by bureaucratic disapproval.
Aoyama says the sexes, especially in Japan's giant cities, are "spiralling away from each other". Lacking long-term shared goals, many are turning to what she terms "Pot Noodle love" – easy or instant gratification, in the form of casual sex, short-term trysts and the usual technological suspects: online porn, virtual-reality "girlfriends", anime cartoons. Or else they're opting out altogether and replacing love and sex with other urban pastimes.
Some of Aoyama's clients are among the small minority who have taken social withdrawal to a pathological extreme. They are recovering hikikomori ("shut-ins" or recluses) taking the first steps to rejoining the outside world, otaku (geeks), and long-term parasaito shingurus (parasite singles) who have reached their mid-30s without managing to move out of home. (Of the estimated 13 million unmarried people in Japan who currently live with their parents, around three million are over the age of 35.) "A few people can't relate to the opposite sex physically or in any other way. They flinch if I touch them," she says. "Most are men, but I'm starting to see more women."
Aoyama cites one man in his early 30s, a virgin, who can't get sexually aroused unless he watches female robots on a game similar to Power Rangers.
"Marriage is a woman's grave," goes an old Japanese saying that refers to wives being ignored in favour of mistresses. For Japanese women today, marriage is the grave of their hard-won careers.
I meet Eri Tomita, 32, over Saturday morning coffee in the smart Tokyo district of Ebisu. Tomita has a job she loves in the human resources department of a French-owned bank. A fluent French speaker with two university degrees, she avoids romantic attachments so she can focus on work. "A boyfriend proposed to me three years ago. I turned him down when I realised I cared more about my job. After that, I lost interest in dating. It became awkward when the question of the future came up."
Prime minister Shinzo Abe recently trumpeted long-overdue plans to increase female economic participation by improving conditions and daycare, but Tomita says things would have to improve "dramatically" to compel her to become a working wife and mother. "I have a great life. I go out with my girl friends – career women like me – to French and Italian restaurants. I buy stylish clothes and go on nice holidays. I love my independence."
Romantic commitment seems to represent burden and drudgery, from the exorbitant costs of buying property in Japan to the uncertain expectations of a spouse and in-laws. And the centuries-old belief that the purpose of marriage is to produce children endures. Japan's Institute of Population and Social Security reports an astonishing 90% of young women believe that staying single is "preferable to what they imagine marriage to be like".
The sense of crushing obligation affects men just as much. Satoru Kishino, 31, belongs to a large tribe of men under 40 who are engaging in a kind of passive rebellion against traditional Japanese masculinity.
"It's too troublesome," says Kishino, when I ask why he's not interested in having a girlfriend. "I don't earn a huge salary to go on dates and I don't want the responsibility of a woman hoping it might lead to marriage."
Japanese-American author Roland Kelts, who writes about Japan's youth, says it's inevitable that the future of Japanese relationships will be largely technology driven. "Japan has developed incredibly sophisticated virtual worlds and online communication systems. Its smart phone apps are the world's most imaginative." Kelts says the need to escape into private, virtual worlds in Japan stems from the fact that it's an overcrowded nation with limited physical space. But he also believes the rest of the world is not far behind. That's a reasonably lengthy set of clips but there is much more in the article that merits a closer look. Fighting Demographics Those wondering why prime minister Abe is having such a hard time stimulating inflation can now stop wondering. Until Japanese attitudes towards child-bearing, jobs, and relationships change, Abe will continue to struggle. Abe seeks to stimulate inflation, but that is likely to encourage more saving, not more spending. With the bulk of Japanese pensions tied up in bonds yielding next to nothing, higher taxes and higher cost of goods and services will decrease demand from aging retirees. The US In the US, student debt hinders family formation. Millions of young adults have moved back home because they do not have a job. Germany In Germany, free child-care is not enough to fix Germany's falling birth rate dilemma Germany has one of the lowest birth rates in Europe and it continued to decline between 2001 and 2011 despite Angela Merkel's government spending a lot of money on subsidies promoting and helping families. Attitudes in General Here are some reasons behind the low birthrates: Lack of Jobs, Student Debt, Aging Parents, High-Priced Housing, Earthquakes, Nuclear Waste. Some of the reasons for lower family formation are universal, others like nuclear waste are country specific. Inflating money increases asset prices (until the bubbles pop) but that does not help those fresh out of college with no assets. Pumping up home prices helps banks stuck with housing inventory, but it hurts those seeking to buy a first-time home. Easy money policy is to the benefit of those with first access to money: the banks and the already wealthy. Easy money is to the detriment of everyone else. Attitude Spiral As income inequality soars, attitudes sour. As robots displace workers, attitudes sour. As taxes go up to support inane union pensions, attitudes sour. As politicians fight, attitudes sour. Everything boils down to attitudes. Unfortunately, central bankers and politicians are making matters worse. Few see that now, but wait until the bubbles pop. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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