Central Perk: 17 sept. 2011

sâmbătă, 17 septembrie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Posted: 17 Sep 2011 02:30 PM PDT

In response to Mortgage Default Notices Surge 33% Nationwide, 55% in California, 200% by Bank of America; Corresponding Jump in Foreclosures Will Follow Patrick Pulatie at LFI Analytics writes ....

Hello Mish,

This is what was expected, and the timing is just about right.

Apr 13, 2011, the OCC ordered the Consent Decree affecting 16 entities, banks, servicers, & MERS. The lenders were given 60 days to present plans how meet the demands of the Decree, and 60 days to actually implement the plans, which would have been Aug 13.

The Decree covered the foreclosure process, and specifically addressed MERS and Certifying Officers. The Decree detailed what need to be done to ensure that any MERS signing and foreclosure was lawful in the particular state where the property was located.

Combine this with the MERS "order" to foreclose in the lenders name, decisions like Gomes v Countrywide in the CA Appeals Court, and now the 9th Circuit ruling supporting MERS, the lenders can begin to foreclose again with relative ease, as long as they follow the Decree.

Likely, much of the rest of the country will experience similar actions, especially since the lid has been lifted in New Jersey.

Most of the homeowner lawsuits to come will be based upon issues with loan modifications. There will still be some based upon foreclosure processes, but these will likely be on pre Aug 13, initiations. Of course, for large numbers of attorneys, they will still file actions based upon the old allegations, but such attorneys only care about the income stream.

There are 1.9 million homes over 90 days late in the US. 6.9 million are delinquent. So, we can see what is coming.

Also, I am now noticing a new trend. Homeowners who received legitimate HAMP loans in 2010 and were able to afford repayment are now re-defaulting again. This time, like before, the defaults are caused by substantial loss of income due to the economy. I expect to see much more coming.

Patrick Pulatie

One of the key rulings that will increase the rate of foreclosures comes from the 9th Circuit Court. Please see 9th Circuit Court Ruling Legitimizes MERS for details.

Addendum:

Pulatie pinged me with this comment

Calvo v HSBC

This case in California just clarified that there is no need for any Assignment of the Deed of Trust to be recorded prior to foreclosure.
Statute CCC 2932.5 is put to rest.

It essentially nails the coffin lid closed on foreclosure defenses that attorneys have been using, when combined with the 9th Circuit ruling and Gomes v Countrywide.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Germany Rejects Geithner's Leveraged Rescue Fund Proposal; First Time Ever, Majority of Germans No Longer See Benefits to Eurozone Membership

Posted: 17 Sep 2011 08:47 AM PDT

It's good to see someone thinking clearly, and that someone is certainly not Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner who wants to dump more Euro risk on the backs of European taxpayers, especially German taxpayers.

Bloomberg reports Germany Rejects Using ECB Leverage to Increase European Rescue Fund's Size

Germany's top two finance officials rejected using the European Central Bank to boost the euro-area rescue fund's firepower, rebuffing a suggestion by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

"The EFSF's sole purpose is the financing of states and that's in order as long as it's done via the capital market," Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann told reporters today. "If it's done via the central bank it constitutes monetary state financing," which is forbidden under European Union rules.

"We don't think that real economic and social problems can be solved by means of monetary policy," said German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, speaking alongside Weidmann after the meeting of EU finance ministers and central bank governors. "That has never been the European model and it won't be."

60% of Germans See No Benefit to Being Part of Eurozone

Please consider Wolf Richter's excellent article on recent German polls and the rebuffing of Geithner: Bailout Rebellion in Germany Heats Up

For the first time ever, a clear majority (60%) of Germans no longer sees any benefits to being part of the Eurozone, given all the risks, according to a poll published September 16 (FAZ, article in German). In the age group 45 to 54, it jumps to 67%. And 66% reject aiding Greece and other heavily indebted countries. Ominously for Chancellor Angela Merkel, 82% believe that her government's crisis management is bad, and 83% complain that they're kept in the dark about the politics of the euro crisis.
"There cannot be any prohibition to think" just so that the euro can be stabilized, wrote Philipp Rösler, Minister of Economics and Technology, in a commentary published on September 9 (Welt, article in German). "And the orderly default of Greece is part of that," he added. Instantly, all hell broke loose, and Denkverbot (prohibition to think) became a rallying cry against the onslaught of criticism that his remarks engendered.

Even Timothy Geithner, who attended the meeting of European finance ministers in Poland, fired off a broadside in Rösler's direction. In the same breath, he proposed the expansion—through leverage, of all things—of the European bailout mechanism, the EFSF. According to Austrian Finance Minister, Maria Fekter, who witnessed the scene, he warned of "catastrophic" economic risks due to the disputes among the countries of the Eurozone and due to the conflicts between these countries and the ECB. Then he demanded in dramatic terms, she said, that "we grab money with our hands to stabilize the banks and expand the EFSF unconditionally."

The smack-down was immediate. German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, took Geithner to task and explained to him in no uncertain terms, according to Fekter, that it was not possible to burden the taxpayers to that extent, particularly not if only the taxpayers of Triple-A countries were to be burdened. A bailout "with tax money alone in the quantity that the USA imagines will not be feasible," Schäuble said. (Wiener Zeitung, article in German).
Vocal support for Rösler came today from a group of 16 prominent German economists. If the government in its efforts to stabilize the euro didn't consider the insolvency of a member country, they warned, Germany would become subject to endless extortion (FAZ, article in German). And to impose a Denkverbot concerning it would be a step back into "top-down state thinking." They further lamented that these policies would turn the Eurozone into a transfer union. If the government wanted to establish a transfer union, it should discuss that with the German voters, they demanded, because it would be a fundamental change in the E.U. constitution and should be legitimized by vote. Otherwise, Germany would be "threatened by a populist movement to exit the E.U."

Future Decided at the Polls

There's more in Richter's article including preposterous demands for Eurobonds by the Italian Finance Minister. Fortunately, the Eurobond idea is dead, thanks to a sensible ruling by the German courts.

Looking ahead, what Merkel wants will not matter after the next election. She will be toast, as will the leaders of Spain, Italy, and Greece.

French president Sarkozy may not survive either although some have written from France that his anti-Euro opponent, Marine Le Pen has no chance. I would certainly like to see some recent polls on that. Anyone have any?

Regardless, sentiment has clearly changed in Germany. Moreover, Finland and Austria have had enough of bailouts as well.

For more on breakup possibilities and ramifications, please see Eurozone Breakup Logistics (Never Believe Anything Until It's Officially Denied)

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Damn Cool Pics

Anti-Coning McDonalds Manager

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 09:29 PM PDT

With McDonald's managers like this taking a stand against people who want to get ice cream all over their own hands coning's days are numbered.

Angry Birds in Real Life

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 08:59 PM PDT

Here comes the Angry Birds! Unarguably the best and most successful and addictive game for mobiles, Angry Birds has managed to amaze people ever since it was released as an app for iPhone and iPad. It went on to be the most sold app on the Apple app store and one of the most popular games on Android too. Rovio, the developer of Angry Birds hasn't left any stone unturned to make it available on every platform, be it on mobiles or desktop.

I hope that these birds are not so violent in real life.

Weekly Address: Passing the American Jobs Act

Your Daily Snapshot for
Saturday, Sept. 17, 2011

Weekly Address: Passing the American Jobs Act

President Obama discusses the need for Congress to pass the American Jobs Act to put more people back to work, and more money back in the pockets of people who are working.

Watch the video.

Weekly Wrap Up

American Jobs Act: On Monday, the President sent the American Jobs Act to Congress. During the week he met with Americans who will benefit from the measures proposed in the Act, including gatherings at Fort Hayes High School, in Columbus, Ohio where the conversation focused on how the American Jobs Act will help teachers and student across the country. The White House also hosted Office Hours with some of the President’s senior economic advisers and hosted an Open for Questions session, answering your tweets, Facebook posts and questions sent to WhiteHouse.gov about the bill.

Remembering September 11: Sunday marked the 10th anniversary of the worst attacks on American soil in our history. Across the country people answered the President’s call and participated in service projects, including the First Family. The President and First Lady visited the September 11 memorials in all three of the crash sites, ground zero in New York City, Shanksville, Pennsylvania and the Pentagon. Vice President and Dr. Biden participated in the dedication ceremony for the Flight 93 National Memorial in Shanksville, and attended the Sunday service at the Pentagon. On Sunday evening, the President told the audience at the Kennedy Center’s Concert for Hope: “We kept the faith, took a painful blow, and we are stronger than before.”

America Invents Act: Thomas Jefferson would be proud. On Friday morning, President Obama signed the America Invents Act in law at Thomas Jefferson High School for Science & Technology in Alexandria, Virginia – in a nod to Jefferson, the first official to issue a U.S. patent. This historic legislation will help American entrepreneurs and businesses get their inventions to the marketplace sooner so they can turn their ideas into new products and new jobs.

Medal of Honor: On Thursday the President awarded the Medal of Honor to Dakota Meyer, a former active duty Marine Corps Corporal from Kentucky. Sergeant Meyer was recognized for his courageous actions above and beyond the call of duty while serving in Kunar Province, Afghanistan, on September 8, 2009. Meyer is the third living recipient -- and the first Marine --to be awarded the Medal of Honor for actions in Iraq or Afghanistan. And at 23, he is also one of the youngest recipients in decades.

Violence Against Women Act: This week marked the 17th anniversary of the landmark legislation, and Vice President Biden, who sponsored this bill as a senator, spoke about the great strides that have been made in addressing all types of violence against women. Since the enactment of the bill in 1994, major changes have been made in the ways that communities respond to domestic violence, sexual assault, stalking and dating violence.

We the People: Turns out people want to know more about our upcoming petitions platform. Macon Phillips, the White House’s Director of Digital Strategy, addressed some of the questions and comments WhiteHouse.gov visitors have submitted about the new petition site. We the People will provide you with a new way to petition the federal government to take action on a range of issues that you care about.

West Wing Week: Don't miss out on some behind the scenes footage on West Wing Week.

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SEOptimise

How to Write a Social Media Audit

Posted: 16 Sep 2011 05:38 AM PDT

I'm always looking for ways to improve our social media audits at SEOptimise to make them more insightful and actionable. While there is no perfect way to approach writing a social media audit, here are some ideas on what I think are important things to consider when writing a social media audit.

What’s the point of a social media audit?

A good social media audit can take quite a while to write, so you need to make sure that the final audit provides you and the client with valuable insight, ideas, and solutions to the client’s problems.

I recommend starting off by deciding what the questions are that you want the audit to answer. This may change to some extent from client to client, but here is a rough list of what I think are some of the most important things to try and gain from your social media audit:

What is the client's aim or expectation from social media? E.g. do they want to decrease customer service costs by answering customer problems on Twitter, or do they simply want to build their profile amongst bloggers in this niche? What is their audience size & demographics and how do they use social media?
What is the client currently doing in social media? Where are their strengths and weaknesses? Are they currently tracking ROI and the effectiveness of their social media?
What are the competitors doing in social media? Is it similar to what the client is doing? Are they doing anything successfully that could be emulated?
What platforms, content, and campaigns work well in this niche or industry? Where are the correct audience participating and what strengths does the client have that they can exploit using social media?
What campaigns, content strategy, or promotions need to be implemented to achieved the client's goals and expectations?

When you know what it is you want to find out, you can begin to put together an appropriate structure and order that ensures all of your important questions are answered. My suggestion on creating a structure is as follows:

Structuring a Social Media Audit

Note: The screenshots used below are for example purposes only.

1. Introduction & Executive Summary

This section should include an overview of what can be achieved with social media, and how this ties in with the client's goals. This is also a good place to outline how you plan to track the results and measure the effectiveness of the campaigns.

2. Internal review & benchmarking

This section should include an analysis of what the client is currently doing in social media, what is working well, and how well adopted social media is in the company.

3. External review & competitor analysis

This section looks at what the client isn't currently doing that could potentially work well for them. This tends to include trend research, and an in-depth analysis of what competitors are doing successfully.

4. Campaign structure & approach

The final main section of the audit looks at what campaigns, content, and promotions could be produced to help the client achieve their goals. We often categorise this section into short-term and long-term campaigns, and also include suggestions on improving existing networks, content, and websites to improve shareability.

Writing the Audit

When writing the audit, it’s fundamental to remember the client’s goals. With SEO there is really only one goal (to increase relevant traffic from converting terms through greater visibility in search engines) so everything you write in an SEO audit, whether it’s about building links or optimising title tags, will naturally focus on the ultimate goal of increasing rankings. Social media is different; there are a wide variety of possible goals, making it far too easy to get distracted and try to audit multiple irrelevant goals. If it helps, write the client’s goal on a post-it note next to your laptop when writing the audit and ask yourself next to every point “is this in line with what we’re trying to achieve?”

Another thing that’s important to bear in mind is how social savvy the client you’re dealing with is. Social media is full of buzz words (whatthefuckismysocialmediastrategy.com anyone?) so be mindful to explain what you mean when talking about ‘communities’, ‘engagement’, ‘social advocacy’, or ‘content seeding’.

Conclusion

For your social media audit to be effective it must improve the performance of the project with the client. It has to highlight where the client is, where they could be, and how you plan to do that. If there are any elements of ambiguity or irrelevant information, your audit will be compromised.

That said, this is no hard and fast guide. Just my thoughts on what makes a social media audit effective. I would love to hear the thoughts from other people who have written audits to find out what’s working and what’s not working for other people.

Feel free to drop a comment below or e-mail me at Marcus(at)Seoptimise(dot)com if you have any thoughts or want to share ideas.

Seth's Blog : Lousy tomatoes and the rare search for wonder

Lousy tomatoes and the rare search for wonder

My local supermarket stocks waxy, tasteless tomatoes from Chile and Mexico and Florida. They even do this in early September, when local tomatoes are delicious, plentiful and ought to be a bargain.

Are they clueless, evil or incompetent?

Perhaps none of these. This supermarket, like most supermarkets, is a checklist institution, one that is in the business of providing good enough, in quantity, at a price that's both cheap and profitable. You need a staple, they have it. They have flour and salt and eggs and macaroni and cheese. They've trained their customers to see them as an invisible vendor, as an organization that satisfices demand. It's too much work, too demanding and too risky to do the alternative...

They could program the store instead.

Program it the way a great theater programs the stage. No one goes to the theatre two or three times a week, expecting a good enough show. No, we only go when we hear there's something magical or terrific happening.

Over time, as institutions create habits and earn subscribers, they often switch, gradually making the move from magical (worth a trip, worth a conversation) to good (there when you need it). Most TV is just good. Magazines, too. When was the last time People magazine did something that made you sit up and say, "wow"? Of course, you could argue that they're not in the wow business, and you might be right.

One of the disrupting forces of the new media is that it makes harder and harder to succeed without wow. Since you have to earn the conversation regularly, phone it in too often and in fact, attention disappears.

• Email to a friend •

sâmbătă, 17 septembrie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics

Weekly Address: Passing the American Jobs Act

SEOptimise

SEOptimise

What’s the point of a social media audit?