Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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Checking Back In Regarding a "Sure Thing" Posted: 29 Dec 2015 11:01 AM PST Several readers sent emails prior to the Fed hike on December 16 that the stock market would collapse immediately following a rate hike. I commented on that sentiment in Knowing the Unknowable; Reflections on the Fed Hike. Here's a snip. "Epocalypse" Now The first person, an economic blogger, tells me a global economic collapse of biblical proportion is coming. He labels the collapse an "epocalypse" and offered a guest-post article that I passed on. I responded "No one knows the precise timing of a collapse. There might not even be one. Stocks could do a slow decline like Japan for years." You can start a countdown, because yesterday he pinged back "Check in with me at the end of the week." Checking Back In I gave "Epocalypse" more than the few days he asked. The end of the week would have been the 18th. It's now the 29th. This is what I see. Curiously, the market is right where the market closed on the day of the hike. Anyone who bought short-term CALLs or PUTs expecting high volatility lost money. The rate hike was the most telegraphed Fed move in history. No one had any advantage in knowing the Fed would hike. I can list up with more reasons than most as to why the markets are over-valued and pension plans extremely vulnerable. For example ... Stocks More Overvalued Now Than 2000 and 2007 No Matter How You Look at Things Bubble Debate; Equity Allocations vs. Shiller PE; Simple World Death Watch Illinois: Despite Massive Stock Market Rally, Illinois Pension Liabilities Go Up, and Up, and Up Apocalypse Illinois: IOUs Projected to Hit $10.5 Billion, $163 Billion Total Accumulated Liabilities Nothing above is a timing indicator. And as we have seen, a rate hike is not a precise timing indicator either. Had a serious decline started on the day of the Fed hike, "Epocalypse" would have been nothing more than lucky, but he likely would have thought he was a genius who "knew" something. Can an "Epocalypse" start tomorrow? Sure, why not? But it could also start a month from now or six months from now. We could also see a slow drift down for years like Japan. We could even see stocks do nothing for years while valuations catch up to smoothed earnings. The one thing we do know is history suggests stocks are hugely over-valued. But I don't know when valuations matter. No one does. Mike "Mish" Shedlock Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Get Your Money Out of Italian Banks Now! Austerity and Bail-Ins Fan Populist Flames; Italy's 5-Star Movement to Challenge Renzi Posted: 29 Dec 2015 09:29 AM PST Austerity and Bail-Ins Fan Populist Flames The Italian economy is growing, albeit barely. But Italy is still saddled with massive amounts of debt. Citizens are upset about a recovery that has passed most of them by. For example, youth unemployment is a whopping 39.8%. That's a lot of potential voters rightfully upset about things. For them, promises are many, and gains are nonexistent. Topping off the discontent, Italy Bank Rescues Spark Bail-In Debate as Anger at Renzi Grows. In 2013, Sergio Picinotti, a 63-year-old unemployed man living with his elderly mother, invested much of their nest egg of €40,000 in a bond issued by Banca Etruria, their local bank based in the medieval Tuscan city of Arezzo. "They said 'what are you doing keeping that in your checking account? Put it here, you'll earn 4 per cent flat," Mr Picinotti recalls. "A friend at the bank told me: 'Trust me, it will take the third world war to shut down Banca Etruria'." Today, Mr Picinotti has lost all that money, but Banca Etruria never closed: in fact it was saved from collapse last month along with three other small banks in a dramatic rescue operation engineered by the centre-left Italian government led by Matteo Renzi. The trouble is there was a price to pay: under the terms of the deal, several thousand subordinated bondholders such as Mr Picinotti were wiped out along with Banca Etruria shareholders, while holders of senior debt and depositors were spared. "They stole it all, I'm living on the edge," says Mr Picinotti. But the reverberations of the bank rescue have also been felt far beyond Tuscany: as Europe prepares to institute new rules from next year which would force losses on bank creditors and big depositors, the saga of Banca Etruria serves as a cautionary tale to politicians and policymakers about the public backlash that could follow any future "bail-ins". On a national level, anger has been mounting towards Mr Renzi for his handling of the affair. It has created an unlikely hotbed of discontent with the 40-year-old prime minister and former mayor of nearby Florence in a region that is traditionally sympathetic to his own political party at a time when he is already battling declining polling numbers. The Banca Etruria case has also revived worries about the health of the Italian banking sector, which remains saddled by more than €200bn of non-performing loans (NPLs) and has barely started to increase lending again after the end of a bruising triple-dip recession. It has also raised questions about the effectiveness of regulators at the Bank of Italy and Consob, the stock market regulator. Italian officials have defended the solidity of their banks and the work of their regulators, and pointed to new reforms of small bank governance. But Francesco Galietti, an analyst at Policy Sonar in Rome, said: "If there was such a kerfuffle with four regional banks, what will a large resolution look like?" Italy's 5-Star Movement to Challenge Renzi With the above bailout and unemployment backdrop, it should not be surprising to see the eurosceptic Five Star Movement on the Rise. When the populist Five Star Movement burst into Italian politics in 2009 during the financial crisis, it was defined by uncompromising protests and the burly, sardonic figure of its leader, the comedian Beppe Grillo. But the Five Star Movement is now attempting to change its face from that of one of Europe's most eccentric — even clownish — political parties. The transformation aims to achieve what seemed like a fantasy only a year ago: to govern the country and challenge the centre-left government led by prime minister Matteo Renzi. Mr Grillo, 67, has removed his name from the party logo, signalling that he may soon step aside. His most likely heir is Luigi Di Maio, a 29-year-old smooth-talking Neapolitan with polished looks, tight-fitting dark suits and moderate tones. "The perception of the movement has changed," Mr Di Maio tells the Financial Times. "At the beginning there was the idea that this was a protest movement . . . But we crashed through that wall. We want to govern." The odds of that happening are increasing. The Five Star Movement is now Italy's second party. After trailing Mr Renzi's Democratic party by nearly 20 percentage points a year ago, recent polls suggest the margin has shrunk to about 5 percentage points — 32 per cent to 27 per cent. The Five Star Movement has won a few municipal races — clinching control of small cities such as Parma, Livorno and Ragusa. The results have been mixed. The mayor of Livorno, for example, has faced harsh criticism after a scandal over uncollected rubbish broke out in the Tuscan port city. A bigger test of the Five Star Movement's strength is to come next year, when local elections will be held in some of Italy's largest cities. The big prize is Rome, the scandal-ridden capital where Five Star has been riding high in the polls after the resignation of Democratic party mayor Ignazio Marino in October. The Five Star Movement's platform has been based on a few key pillars that have drawn supporters from both the right and the left: opposition to corruption, environmentalism, and a referendum on euro membership, which Mr Di Maio blames for many of Italy's economic woes. "The real failure of monetary union is to think that countries in the south should travel at the same speed as the ones in the north," he says. Lately, his party has been lashing out at Italy's rescue of four small banks, which wiped out thousands of retail investors holding junior debt. "Their goal was to save the bankers, not the citizens," Mr Di Maio wrote on his Facebook page last week. There are some signs he has tried to moderate Mr Grillo's sharper edges. Mr Di Maio recently helped broker a deal with Mr Renzi's PD for the appointment of three constitutional judges. And he is keen to distance himself from another populist party shaking Europe's establishment, France's far-right National Front. Its rise reflects a "climate of general indignation", says Mr Di Maio. Yet the Five Star Movement, he insists, is not a populist toxin but its antidote: "We're the natural spokesman of citizens. We are a barrier against hatred and extremism". Get Your Money Out of Italian Banks Now! The goal is always to bail out the banks at any expense, especially that of taxpayers. The bail-ins in December are a huge warning shot at what's highly likely in 2016. If you have money in weak banks after this mess, you are crazy. Cyprus, Greece, and Italy have all provided warning shots. I have been warning about these setups for years. And in 2016, banks can go right after depositors if necessary. It will be very interesting to watch target2 imbalances (a measure of capital flight) following this bail-in debacle. The political scene looks interesting as well. Renzi's days may well be numbered. If the Renzi government falls, it's highly likely it will be to a eurosceptic party. In this regard, Greece was a sideshow. Italy is the real deal. Mike "Mish" Shedlock Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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Seth's Blog : Surefire predictions



Surefire predictions

I'm betting on the following happening in 2016:

An event will happen that will surprise, confound and ultimately bore the pundits. 

Out of the corner of your eye, you'll notice something new that will delight you.

You'll be criticized for work you shipped, even though it wasn't made for the person who didn't like it.

Something obvious will become obvious.

A pop culture emergency will become the thing that everyone is talking about, distracting us from the actually important work at hand.

You'll gain new leverage and the ability to make even more of a difference.

We'll waste more than a billion hours staring at screens. (That's in total, but for some people, it might feel like an individual number).

That thing that everyone was afraid of won't come to pass.

Some people will gain (temporary) power by ostracizing the other, amplifying our fears and racing to the bottom.

And the long-term trend toward connection, dignity and possibility will continue. Slowly.

Opportunities will be missed. Lessons will be learned.

You'll say or write something that will shine a light, open a door and make a connection.

Nothing will be as perfect as we imagined it. Many things will be better than that, though.

Leaps will be taken.

You will exceed expectations.

The project you've been working on will begin to pay off in unexpected ways, if you're open to seeing them.

You will start something. And quit something.

That expensive habit that you don't even enjoy that much will continue to be expensive.

We'll forget some hard lessons but we'll also learn some new ones.

A pretty safe list, because, of course, this always happens.

{Level up} 

       

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