Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Credit Default Swaps Useless as Hedge Against Default; CDS on Greece a Purposeful Sham; Derivatives King Always Wins
- Massachusetts Supreme Court Foreclosure "Bombshell" Ruling Nothing But Hot Air
- Good News for Bears: Torture by Rumor Ends
Posted: 27 Oct 2011 10:36 AM PDT As a result of labeling 50% haircuts "voluntary", Credit Default Swap contracts have proven to be useless when it comes to protecting against sovereign default. The serious implication is investors will need to find another way to hedge. Bloomberg reports Greece Default Swaps Failure to Trigger Casts Doubt on Contracts as Hedge The European Union's ability to write down 50 percent of banks' Greek bond holdings without triggering $3.7 billion in debt-insurance contracts threatens to undermine confidence in credit-default swaps as a hedge and force up borrowing costs.CDS on Greece a Purposeful Sham Janet Tavakoli writes "Standard" Credit Default Swaps on Greece Are a Sham and It's Not a Surprise "Customers" that accepted ISDA documentation when buying credit default protection on Greece are now discovering that ISDA defends the position that a 50% discount on Greek debt is "voluntary" and therefore not a credit event for credit default swap payment purposes according to its documents.Derivatives King Always Wins Note how the "Derivatives King" JP Morgan wins on its contracts, even on both sides of essentially the same bet. By the way, I have a couple of questions:
Addendum: Reader Scott writes ... One look at the ISDA membership should disabuse anyone of the notion that this is some kind of neutral judge. The big banks that write most of the derivative contract also compose the group that defines a credit event. This is not much different than have a baseball pitcher call the balls and strikes. How this is legal is beyond me. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Massachusetts Supreme Court Foreclosure "Bombshell" Ruling Nothing But Hot Air Posted: 27 Oct 2011 09:40 AM PDT Many people sent links regarding a bombshell ruling in Massachusetts by the Daily Bail that allegedly "made foreclosure sales in the commonwealth over the last five years wholly void." On Oct. 18th, 2011 the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court handed down their decision in the FRANCIS J. BEVILACQUA, THIRD vs. PABLO RODRIGUEZ – and in a moment, essentially made foreclosure sales in the commonwealth over the last five years wholly void. However, some of the more polite headlines, undoubtedly in the interest of not causing wide spread panic simply put it "SJC puts foreclosure sales in doubt" or "Buyer Can't Sue After Bad Foreclosure Sale."Clueless Hype Let's first dispose of the nonsense that the "Massachusetts SJC is one of the most respected high courts in the country, other supreme courts look to these decisions for guidance, and would find it difficult to rule any other way in their own states." The more important issue is the way sites trump up these cases with preposterous statements such as "In essence, the ruling upheld that those who had purchased foreclosure properties that had been illegally foreclosed upon (which is virtually all foreclosure sales in the last five years) ..." The essence of the matter is the Daily Bail preaching clueless hype. I asked Patrick Pulatie at LFI Analytics to chime in on the significance of the case. Pulatie writes ... US Bank foreclosed upon the property, but no assignment to US Bank occurred until after the foreclosure. B then bought the property.Third Opinion We have heard from the Daily Bail and from Pulatie. Let's find a neutral party for a third opinion. I just happen to have one. The Massachusetts Real Estate Law Blog asks What Now? Bevilacqua v. Rodriguez Leaves Toxic Foreclosure Titles Unclear The Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court issued its opinion today in the much anticipated Bevilacqua v. Rodriguez case considering property owners' rights when they are saddled with defective titles ...It should be pretty clear now as to what is hype and what is not. As far as precedent setting cases from respected courts, please consider 9th Circuit Court Ruling Legitimizes MERS. As a followup post including an analysis of Assignment of the Deed of Trust in the California case Calvo v HSBC, please consider More on the Coming Wave of Foreclosures. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Good News for Bears: Torture by Rumor Ends Posted: 26 Oct 2011 11:22 PM PDT A deal has been reached. While many decisions are yet to be made the agreed upon deal looks something like this:
A group of 70 European banks will need to raise 106 billion euros in the next eight months. Recapitalization Breakdown
Banks that fail to raise enough capital on the markets will first tap national governments, falling back on the EFSF rescue fund only as a last resort. The above details pieced together from EU Sets 50% Greek Writedown, $1.4T in Fund and Impasse on Greek Debt Relief Threatens EU Crisis Summit Deal The fuzziest point in the deal is in regards to what banks get the additional 21 billion Euros in "official aid", with what strings, and where the money comes from. Good News for Bears Although many details are yet to be resolved, the bulls got everything they wanted except endless printing by the ECB. However, the sad fundamental situation remains unchanged
Instead of the rumor mill of potential actions working to lift the market 24 hours a day for three straight weeks, it will be up to the EU to make the plan work. However, the plan won't work because of point number one above: not a single structural problem has been solved. Although this rally may run for a while longer on fumes of past rumors and blind hope, it will eventually wear itself out. Bear market rallies tend to end on good news. What more good news is coming? The bulls got nearly everything they wanted, putting an end to torture by rumor. What could possibly be better news for the bears? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
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