Central Perk: 23 oct. 2010

sâmbătă, 23 octombrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Home Prices Double Dip in "Sudden Dramatic Drop"; 20% More to Come says Gary Shilling

Posted: 23 Oct 2010 07:18 AM PDT

Clear Capital™ has issued a special press release report on home prices that shows a Sudden and Dramatic Drop in U.S. Home Prices

TRUCKEE, Calif. – Oct. 22, 2010 – Clear Capital (www.clearcapital.com), is issuing this special alert on a dramatic change observed in U.S. home prices.

"Clear Capital's latest data shows even more pronounced price declines than our most recent HDI market report released two weeks ago," said Dr. Alex Villacorta, senior statistician, Clear Capital. "At the national level, home prices are clearly experiencing a dramatic drop from the tax credit-induced highs, effectively wiping out all of the gains obtained during the flurry of activity just preceding the tax credit expiration."

This special Clear Capital Home Data Index (HDI) alert shows that national home prices have declined 5.9% in just two months and are now at the same level as in mid April 2010, two weeks prior to the expiration of the recent federal homebuyer tax credit. This significant drop in prices, in advance of the typical winter housing market slowdowns, paints an ominous picture that will likely show up in other home data indices in the coming months.

Both Clear Capital and S&P/Case-Shiller indices have displayed consistent market peak, trough, secondary trough, and tax credit run-ups. Despite these consistencies, a critical difference is that HDI's patent pending methodology enables more timely and granular reporting. Therefore, if previous correlations between the Clear Capital and S&P/Case-Shiller indices continue as expected, the next two months will show a similar downward trend in S&P/Case Shiller numbers.

Shilling Calls for Another 20% Drop

Video: Gary Shilling says single-family home prices will drop another 20% over the next few years with number of homeowners underwater to rise from 23% to 40%.

Excess inventories of 2.1 million are the "mortal enemy" of prices says Shilling. "A 20 percent decline would bring us back to the long-term trend, all the way back to 1890. I am a great believer in reversion to the norm".

I agree with Shilling on those points.

It's a great interview, much more to hear, including a forecast on 30-year bond rates of 3%.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Nonviable Pension Stupidity in Pittsburgh

Posted: 23 Oct 2010 12:35 AM PDT

Pittsburgh has unfunded pension liabilities totaling $718 million. Those liabilities are a black hole that will continue to grow unless the structural issues are addressed.

Sadly, Pittsburgh agreed to put off addressing the real issues and instead floated a 30-year bond.

Please consider Pittsburgh Deal to Fund City Pensions Put in Park

Pittsburgh's city council nixed a deal this week to lease its parking assets to a consortium led by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Instead, the council is proposing that the city's parking authority issue a 30-year bond and pay it off with parking-rate increases. Part of the proceeds would go to the pension plan.

Mayor Luke Ravenstahl said Friday that he was opposed to that proposal. The city pension plan, which had an unfunded liability of $718 million as of August, could fall into state hands without additional funding.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management and LAZ Parking offered the city $452 million to operate garages, lots and 7,000 metered street spaces for 50 years.

, who runs J.P. Morgan's infrastructure-investments group, said the consortium might amend its offer. "Clearly, we were disappointed," he said. "But we believe it's still a viable option."

Nonviable Options

Anyone who proposes a 50-year deal that does not address underlying structural needs is a fool or a charlatan.

Thus, Mark Weisdorf is no friend of Pittsburgh. Instead he is looking out for the best interest of JP Morgan.

However, the same thing can be said about the nonviable solution Pittsburgh came up with. Floating 30-year bonds to fund liabilities without addressing the root cause of the liabilities is just as stupid, if not more stupid.

I have seen no discussion of the real issue: The pension plan of Pittsburgh is not sustainable, nor are public union wages and services.

Pittsburgh is bankrupt, as are many cities in the nation. It is foolish to enter into 30-year or 50-year deals to stave off the inevitable.

Neither the JP Morgan solution nor the action taken by the city council is viable. Pittsburgh kicked the can down a 30-year road, at taxpayer expense, in an asinine attempt to keep the ball in play. The decision cannot and will not work.

The correct decision was to admit bankruptcy of the plan and address the structural issues of untenable union wages and benefits.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Seth's Blog : Efficiency is free

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Efficiency is free

Philip Crosby wrote a seminal book (Quality is Free) in which he argued that it's cheaper to build things right the first time than it is to fix them later. Obvious now, but heresy in Detroit 1980. Quality quickly became not just a better way to manufacture, it became a marketing benefit as well. Not only was quality cheaper to make, it was cheaper to sell.

I'm struck that we need a new book, call it Efficiency is Free.

It's cheaper to build carpets that don't create poison gas than it is to do the easy thing and let people suffer later. It's cheaper to build an 8 passenger car that gets 30 miles per gallon than it is to suffer the consequences of the 12 mile per gallon Suburban. It's cheaper to design smaller, lighter and recyclable shipping containers once than it is to buy and hassle with billions of foam peanuts in the long run.

So why doesn't everyone do this? For the same reason the quality revolution took a full generation to take hold--it costs more right now. It takes planning right now. It requires change right now.

Right now will always be difficult. But efficiency is still free.

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Daily Snapshot: Letting Wall Street Run Wild Again

Your Daily Snapshot for
Saturday, October 23, 2010

Your Weekly Address: Letting Wall Street Run Wild Again

Pointing to the foreclosure crisis and the economy, the President cites passage of Wall Street Reform over the ferocious lobbying of Wall Street banks as a pivotal acheivement -- and condemns Republicans in Congress for vowing to repeal it.

Watch the video.

Weekly Wrap Up

Photo: A fruitful Kitchen Garden harvest: http://wh.gov/3Ub

First Lady Michelle Obama, with students from Bancroft and Tubman Elementary Schools, look participates in a White House Kitchen garden harvest on the South Lawn of the White House, October 21, 2010. (Official White House Photo by Samantha Appleton).

Quote: “As a nation we’re founded on the belief that all of us are equal and each of us deserves the freedom to pursue our own version of happiness; to make the most of our talents; to speak our minds; to not fit in; most of all, to be true to ourselves. That’s the freedom that enriches all of us. That’s what America is all about. And every day, it gets better.”

– President Obama in a video message for the nationwide campaign focused on young people who are being bullied because of their actual or perceived sexual orientation. Video + Resources: http://wh.gov/3nn

White House White Board #2: Austan Goolsbee, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, takes a look at the President’s record on the economy in this short video: http://wh.gov/3X2

Your West Wing Week: "The White House Science Fair" http://wh.gov/3Qb (Missed the fair? Check out the festival: http://bit.ly/cDxJLa)

Women & the Economy: A backyard discussion with the President: http://wh.gov/3nd A White House releases a report: http://wh.gov/3Nt & 10 ways our economic policies benefit women: http://wh.gov/3ng

You Asked, We Answered: White House officials respond to some of your questions that the President didn’t have a chance to answer in his live town hall with young people: http://wh.gov/3UY

Notable Number: $240 billion in tax cuts. Get the facts on how Obama’s tax cuts are helping American families: http://wh.gov/3RJ

Facebooking about Facebook: Secretary Chu’s thoughts on social networks: http://on.fb.me/d1WRhs

End Black Lung:The Mine Safety and Health Administration takes on black lung disease. Video: http://bit.ly/cdIJSD

An Executive Order: President Obama signs an Executive Order to renew and enhance the White House Initiative on Educational Excellence for Hispanics: http://wh.gov/35Y En Español: http://wh.gov/3Iq

Twitter Commentary: FCC: We’re filling in the baseball void for those without Fox-Cablevision. Matt Cain pitching a beauty. SF up 3-0 http://fcc.gov/consumer (WaPo story: http://wapo.st/cqQcMO)

What You Missed: Full videos from this week’s live chats: Austan Goolsbee on the economy: http://wh.gov/35F, Howard Schmidt on Cybersecurity: http://wh.gov/3nm, Chuck Close on the arts and humanities: http://wh.gov/3Nl

Ask Axe: Join David Axelrod, Senior Advisor to the President, for a Tuesday Talk on October 26th at 1:00 p.m. EDT. http://wh.gov/3UQ

Stay Connected

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SEOptimise

30 Quick & Clean Conversion Optimization Techniques for Buttons, Forms, Copy, Shopping Carts etc.

Posted: 22 Oct 2010 08:17 AM PDT

Image: Cleaner by atomicjeep.

Half a year ago I compiled a huge list of CRO (conversion rate optimization) resources. I think it was a bit too much for most of you. This time I decided to make it easier for you.

This list encompasses 30 conversion optimization techniques that are simple and quickly implemented in most cases but can significantly improve your conversion rate. I focused on six of the most important factors in web design, SEO and CRO and offered both “quick and clean” improvement suggestions for

buttons
forms
copy
shopping carts
typography
metrics

While you can improve the first five you have to employ the right metrics in the first place to make sure you don’t overlook conversions.

Buttons

It’s not a surprising fact that buttons are key to converting your visitors to customers. The button often determines whether a user takes action at all. Thus you combine buttons with effective calls to action.

make them bigger, bolder and add some striking color.
Add a short and clear call to action reflecting the desired action
make the step smaller (instead of “buy now” just “start now” or “try for free”)
Display just one button/option to minimize choices and avoid confusion
Remove negative options like “delete”

Forms

In case you have read the influential book “Web Design for ROI” you know that forms are the most important element on a website, not the homepage. Forms are not means of excessive data collection but ways for your users or customers to interact with you. Act accordingly simplifying and streamlining forms.

don’t make people register or log in to buy or otherwise convert, make it optional
highlight the active form input
don’t use conventional captchas with garbled letters and numbers for spam protection
don’t ask for sensitive data like gender or birth date unless you really need it for the conversion
in case you offer options to select be it with buttons or drop-downs always add and else input for options not listed

Copy

Copy as in copy writing still gets associated with sales copy. On the Web copywriting does not mean to overwhelm the reader with mindless corporate hogwash or keyword stuffed SEO content. It needs to be useful and support the visitor at whatever task s/he seeks to accomplish.

quit using “marketese” with all the blown up adjectives like “revolutionary, leading, biggest”, be matter of fact and try staying neutral
don’t say “we”, say “you”, focus on the customer’s point of view not your own
keep it short and highlight the options available for quick navigation inside the copy itself
be consistent throughout your landing page, don’t use different modes of speech (formal/informal, matter of fact/funny)
use natural language with synonyms instead of keyword stuffing (repeating the same phrase over and over)

Shopping carts

Shopping cart abandonment reaches often catastrophic levels. Sometimes two thirds or more of potential customers abandon your cart during the checkout process. There are several common reasons for this situation you can easily fix.

display badges of industry associations, trusted third party entities (press, government, NGOs) and security certificates
show shipping costs up front, otherwise people wil star the check out process to find out
show available payments methods up front and display the respective logos (PayPal, Moneybookers, Amex, Visa etc.)
email people who have stopped in the middle of the check out process after adding their personal data, they may have experienced technical issues and not even remember the URL they were on
remove hidden fees/charges and “small print” conditions, nobody likes to get fooled

Typography

While web designers often tend to use typography to beautify websites in SEO and usability we focus on readability to convert visitors.

use web safe fonts not fancy ones, some of the new fuzzy “anti-aliased” fonts are barely readable, font replacement techniques often are buggy (flicker before loading)
make fonts large enough to read and small enough to read, the eye can’t see tiny letters but huge letters will be out of focus
add more overall white space on your page for the eyes to rest beside the text
display text in a one column layout without distracting sidebars or other items
make sure your line-height, letter-spacing plus margin and padding are appropriate and the text doesn’t conflict with other site elements like images and graphics

Metrics

Sometimes you can’t improve conversion because you don’t measure them correctly or at all. There are many ways to define a conversion in the first place so that you can actually notice when a site goal has been been reached. It doesn’t have to be a sale.

track “micro conversions” like comments, returning visitors, high engagement visits (10 pageviews +), Twitter retweets or Facebook likes
divide your check out process into several small conversions, for instance , “adding email address”, “choosing payment method”, “accepting TOS” would be three conversions. This way you also see easily where in the check out process people refuse to go on.
“make love” to your direct traffic aka type in, returning visitors and subscribers, don’t just focus on first time visitors from search, social media and other referrers
don’t solely rely on Google Analytics which can’t measure several factors like canceled items after a sale
track the questions people ask to reach your site and answer them on your site if you haven’t already

Most of the improvement suggestions combine usability and CRO advice found elsewhere and my own attempts of advanced onsite optimization. So I may err in some cases. Feel free to question my techniques where your experiences differ from mine. Also add more simple ways to optimize for conversions if you like.

To test your new buttons, forms, copy etc. you need to use A/B split testing tools.

© SEOptimise – Download our free business guide to blogging whitepaper and sign-up for the SEOptimise monthly newsletter. 30 Quick & Clean Conversion Optimization Techniques for Buttons, Forms, Copy, Shopping Carts etc.

It Gets Better

Good morning,

As a mother, I can only imagine how devastating it would be to lose a child. So I was shocked and saddened when I heard that several young people had taken their own lives recently after being bullied for being gay -- or because people thought they were gay.

No one should ever feel so hopeless or tormented that they take their own life. Bullying of any kind, for any reason, is unacceptable. As adults, it's our responsibility to create a safe environment for our children. That includes setting an example of respect for one another -- no matter our differences.

That's why I’m writing to you today. In the wake of these terrible tragedies, thousands of Americans have come together to share messages of encouragement and hope with LGBT youth across our country who might be having a hard time in school or in their communities. And I wanted to share with you the video that Barack recorded to join his voice with all those who have told their own personal stories:

Middle school and high school can be tough for any kid. But it can be especially wrenching if you’re taunted or harassed by your peers, if you are made to feel worthless or alone because you don’t look or act like everybody else. And if you’re in that situation, it can be hard to imagine that things will ever change. But they will.

If you've been bullied, you need to know that this is not your fault. There are adults -- whether in your family, your school or your community -- who can help. Most importantly, you need to know how special and valuable your life is not just to your family and friends but to the entire country. You truly have a bright future ahead of you.

If you’re a parent worried about your child being bullied, or a young person who’s being bullied by their peers and aren't sure where to turn, you can learn more here:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/ItGetsBetter

Please take care of yourselves and of one another.

Sincerely,

Michelle Obama
First Lady of the United States

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Seth's Blog : Avoiding counterfeits, building permission

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Avoiding counterfeits, building permission

Catherine Casey shared this picture (click to enlarge) of a medicine sold in Nigeria, where counterfeit drugs are a huge issue. Each packet comes with a scratch-off number. Use your cell phone and SMS the number to the company, and the company will text back whether the packet is legit. I'm sure clever counterfeiters will try to game the system, but it's not that hard to make it work.

It's easy to imagine ways that this could be used to increase after-sale connection (offers, insight, instructions, coupons) for all sorts of items, particularly in parts of the world where SMS is cheap and ubiquitous.

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sâmbătă, 23 octombrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : Efficiency is free

Efficiency is free

More Recent Articles

Daily Snapshot: Letting Wall Street Run Wild Again

SEOptimise

SEOptimise

It Gets Better

Seth's Blog : Avoiding counterfeits, building permission

Avoiding counterfeits, building permission

More Recent Articles

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

sâmbătă, 23 octombrie 2010

More Recent Articles

More Recent Articles

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

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