Central Perk: 20 oct. 2015

marți, 20 octombrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Posted: 20 Oct 2015 11:58 AM PDT

Those expecting a big surge in seasonal hiring this year are likely to be wrong if outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas is correct.

One relative bright spot is Amazon Hiring More than Penney's, Walmart Combined.

Leaving one widely watched holiday hiring forecast in the dust, Amazon (AMZN) said Tuesday that it will add 25 percent more seasonal workers this year, outpacing many of its bricks-and-mortar competitors who plan to keep hiring flat.

Last month, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said it expects retailers to add roughly 755,000 seasonal hires to their payrolls in the final three months of the year. That level would be flat with last year, when holiday hiring fell short of predictions.

"Once again, most analysts are anticipating healthy holiday sales this year," CEO John Challenger said in a statement. "However, there are several factors that may prevent these strong sales expectations from translating into increased hiring."

"When retailers do add holiday workers, fewer of those jobs are in traditional spots, such as sales clerk or cashier."

In 2014, Challenger predicted retailers would hire more than 800,000 seasonal workers from October through December, which would have been the first time they hit this number since 1999. Instead, they ended up adding 755,000 jobs, a decline of 4 percent from 2013.

Seasonal Hiring Expectations

Amazon 100,000 a 25% increase
Macy's 85,000 no increase
Wal-Mart 60,000 no increase
JC Penney 30,000 down 5,000
Nordstrom 11,800 up 1,000
Toys R Us 40,000 down 5,000
Kohl's 69,000 up 2,000
Target 70,000 no increase
Burlington 10,800 up 19%
Sports Authority 3,500 no change
GameStop 28,000 up 12%
Belk 5,800 no increase
Bon-Ton 13,000 not stated
UPS 90,000-95,000 no increase
Federal Express 55,000 up 5,000

If hiring is indeed flat or nearly so, the upcoming jobs reports are likely to be marginal at best.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Housing Starts Surprise to Upside Led by Multi-Family, Permits Surprise to Downside

Posted: 20 Oct 2015 10:26 AM PDT

There's something for bulls and bears alike to cheer about in today's housing starts report. Starts were ever-so-slightly above the top Econoday Estimate but permits were well below the lowest economist's estimate.

Starts, driven by a spike in multi-family units, came in much stronger than expected in September, news offset however by a significant decline in permits. Starts jumped 6.5 percent to a 1.206 million annual rate which is just outside Econoday's high estimate. Multi-family starts surged 18.3 percent to 466,000 which follows large spikes in related permits in May and June. Single-family starts rose very slightly, up 0.3 percent to 740,000.

But it's the permit side of the report that's weak, down 5.0 percent to only 1.103 million which is well below Econoday's low estimate. And it's the multi-family component that's especially weak, down 12.1 percent to 406,000 which is the lowest reading since March. Permits of single-family units are flat, down 0.3 percent to a 697,000 rate.

Taking the ups and downs all together, this report is probably in trend, pointing to an extended upward trend for construction though the abrupt downturn in permits does hint at slowing in the months ahead. Year-on-year, starts are up a very striking 17.5 percent with permits, however, up only 4.7 percent.

Permits

Single-Family Starts

Those charts add quite a bit of needed perspective on the housing "recovery".

Single family construction is most important stat because it leads more directly to family formation.

With permits down and single-family units stagnating, one has to question the huge surge in optimism from builders. Not only are sales weak, but traffic is down.

For details, please see Homebuilder Confidence Soars to Highest Level in 10 Years Despite Falling Traffic; Unwarranted Optimism?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Damn Cool Pics

The Languages Of Star Wars [Infographic]
What Life Is Like Living Inside Of A Bubble
The Halloween Decorations On This House Are Stunning But Haunting

The Languages Of Star Wars [Infographic]

Posted: 20 Oct 2015 04:51 PM PDT

Even though the Star Wars world is pure fantasy, it's still realistic in the fact that different cultures of the universe speak different languages. Thanks to Matinee Multilingual, you can brush up on all the jargon just in time for the excitement to really get going about the upcoming film. Maybe you can even pre-order your ticket in Wookiespeak.

Click on Image to Enlarge.

What Life Is Like Living Inside Of A Bubble

Posted: 20 Oct 2015 04:41 PM PDT

These houses in the Dutch city of Hertogenbosch look like something out of a science fiction movie. Back in 1968 the Dutch government allocated funding for this experimental housing project and although the houses may be ugly, they're still quite popular today.

The Halloween Decorations On This House Are Stunning But Haunting

Posted: 20 Oct 2015 12:09 PM PDT

These people decided to decorate their parent's house for Halloween and now the house is truly haunting.

via imgur

Seth's Blog : Offense and defense, a b2b insight

Offense and defense, a b2b insight

Selling change to organizations is difficult. One reason is that change represents a threat, a chance for things to go wrong. It's no wonder that many people avoid anything that smells of change.

Another reason is that different people in the organization have different worldviews, different narratives.

Consider the difference between "offense" and "defense" when confronting a new idea.

The person who is playing offense wants to get ahead. Grow market share. Get promoted. She wants to bring in new ideas, help more customers, teach the people around her. Change is an opportunity to further the agenda, change is a chance to reshuffle the deck.

The person who is playing defense, though, wants to be sure not to disappoint the boss. Not to drop a ball, break what's working or be on the spot for something that didn't happen.

Either posture, surprisingly, can lead to significant purchases and change.

Defensive purchases are things like a better insurance policy, or a more reliable auditor. Offensive purchases include sophisticated new data mining tools and a course in public speaking.

The defensive purchaser switches to a supplier that offers the same thing for less money. The offensive posture demands a better thing, even if it costs more.

Not only are people divided in their posture related to change, they're also in different camps when it comes to going first. For some, buying something first is a thrill and an opportunity, for others, it's merely a threat.

While we often associate defense with late adoption, that's not always true. The military, for example, frequently pushes to buy things before 'the bad guys' do. For example, the internet was pioneered and supported by the defense establishment.

And while you can imagine that some people seeking to make change happen are eager geeks of whatever is new, it's very common for a proven success (a titan) to wait until an idea is proven, then overinvest in putting it to use in order to continue to steamroll the competition. Trader Joe's did this with laser scanners... They like change, as long as that change is proven to help them win even more than they already are.

Play with the graph a little bit and consider who you are contacting and what story you're telling...