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| Gaffe? What Gaffe? Greek Polls? All Over the Place Posted: 26 May 2012 10:50 PM PDT I am amused by the Financial Times headline Tsipras shrugs off gaffe about Hollande. When Evangelos Venizelos, the Greek socialist leader, boarded a 7.30am flight to Paris on Tuesday, only his closest aides knew he was on the way to a hastily arranged meeting with the French president.Gaffe? What Gaffe? For his statement to be a gaffe, Tsipras would have to care. Instead, he is laughing to the voting booth. Being snubbed by Merkel and and Hollande plays into his hands as I suggested earlier today. Some recent polls have shown New Democracy back into the lead but the Financial Times continues with ... Yet the firebrand leader's travails abroad did not appear to have dented his popularity at home. While polls suggest that Mr Tsipras is viewed as the politician most responsible for blocking the formation last week of a coalition government – an outcome that more than 60 per cent of Greeks would have preferred to a fresh election – Syriza nevertheless increased its support by two points this week, to 30 per cent.The Financial Times article is as of May 25, 2012 11:21 pm. So, if Tsipras made a gaffe, pray tell where is it? Note the irony of Hollande refusing to meet with Tsipras, just as Merkel refused to meet with Hollande until Hollande defeated Sarkozy. Greek Polls? All Over the Place Bear in mind there are numerous conflicting polls. Reuters reports Greek pro-bailout conservatives regain lead. Greece's conservatives have regained an opinion poll lead that would allow the formation of a pro-bailout government committed to keeping the country in the euro zone, a batch of new surveys showed on Saturday.I suspect but cannot prove the poll cited by the Financial Times is more accurate. Reuters continues ... FRAGILE LEADGiven the highly inflammatory statements of Lagarde regarding no renegotiation of terms (please see Harsh Language from Lagarde: "IMF Has No Intention of Softening Terms"; From Head of Deutsche Bank: "Greece is a Failed Corrupt State"; Purposely Inflammatory Statements to Force Greece Exit), New Democracy leader Samaras is disingenuous at best in his call to renegotiate the terms of the bailout. I believe Greek voters will see through Samaras' lies, preferring the "no bailout" message of Tsipras. Regardless, intense fear-mongering by the New Democrats, Pasok, Merkel, and Hollande is likely. Some of that will be counterproductive. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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| Posted: 26 May 2012 10:42 AM PDT Strong messages from the head or the IMF, the head of Deutsche Bank, and the president of the Bundesbank are highly likely to drive Greek voters away from New Democracy and Pasok in the June 17 elections. The Guardian writes It's payback time: don't expect sympathy – Lagarde to Greeks. The International Monetary Fund has ratcheted up the pressure on crisis-hit Greece after its managing director, Christine Lagarde, said she has more sympathy for children deprived of decent schooling in sub-Saharan Africa than for many of those facing poverty in Athens.Purposely Inflammatory Statements to Benefit Syriza Those statements are not only inflammatory, but purposely so. Lagarde has to know that her message stating more sympathy to Africa than patients refused life-saving drugs in Greece is bound to incite Greeks. Recall that Antonis Samaras (the head of New Democracy) and Evangelos Venizelos (the head of Pasok), have promised voters they will renegotiate the terms. Greek voters just had that promise yanked away in no uncertain terms. IMF and Deutsche Bank statements also make German chancellor Angela Merkel look like a cream-puff with her offer of potential stimulus efforts. In contrast to the lies of Samaras and Venizelos, Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras says the bailout is null and void, while stating Greece will remain in the euro. It is had to say with certainty whether his promise to remain in the eurozone is a purposeful lie as opposed to pure fantasy, but given there is no provision to kick any country out of the eurozone, he just might believe it. Lies and Bluffs For further discussion please consider What if Tsipras is Not Bluffing? Who Holds the Upper hand? What is Troika's Biggest Fear? Can Greece Possibly Stay in the Eurozone After Default? Merkel's 6-Point Plan to Save Europe; Merkel Backed Into Tight Corner: Social Democrats Threaten to Not Ratify Merkozy Treaty Without Growth Measures; Merkel Coalition at Risk IMF Purposeful Attempt to Incite Greek Exit The IMF has had enough. It does not want to deal with a coalition of Samaras and Venizelos given falling revenues in Greece and no hint of any true structural reforms. Rather, Lagarde wants to drive Greek voters to Syriza so that Greece can default and the Troika can cut off all funding in "clear conscience" All funding should be cut now (in fact three years ago), but the IMF hopes to absolve itself of blame. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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