Central Perk: 21 aug. 2014

joi, 21 august 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Obamacare Manufacturing Facts: 85% of Firms Raise Premiums, 91% Raise Deductibles, 74% Raise Out of Pocket Maximum, 15% Decrease Employment
Spain Dips 37% Into Social Security "Piggy Bank", Fund Depletion in 4 Years at Current Rate; What, Me Worry?
Japan PMI "Strongest Since March": Does That Mean "Strong"?

Obamacare Manufacturing Facts: 85% of Firms Raise Premiums, 91% Raise Deductibles, 74% Raise Out of Pocket Maximum, 15% Decrease Employment

Posted: 21 Aug 2014 01:00 PM PDT

A special question on the impact of Obamacare on businesses in the August Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey shows the stunning failure of Obamacare.

Here are the results in table form. I added the net results in red.

click on chart for sharper image

Net Percentage of Manufacturing Firms That ...

Category	Net Percentage
Decrease Employment	15.2
Increase Part-Time Workers	16.7
Increase Outsourcing	10.7
Increase prices	28.8
Raise Healthcare Premiums	85.3
Raise Healthcare Deductibles	91.2
Raise Out of Pocket Maximums	73.6
Increase Copays	61.8
Reduce Medical Coverage	38.3
Decrease Network Choices	26.5

As always, I encourage everyone to look on the bright side: A net 2.9% of manufacturing firms cover a higher percentage of the lower number of employees they have.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Spain Dips 37% Into Social Security "Piggy Bank", Fund Depletion in 4 Years at Current Rate; What, Me Worry?

Posted: 21 Aug 2014 10:24 AM PDT

The "recovery" news in Spain keeps piling up. Via translation from El Economista, Government has already taken 37% of the total 'pensions piggy bank'. If extractions continue at the current rate, the fund would be exhausted in 4 years.

The Government of Mariano Rajoy has released 24.65 billion euros of the Social Security Reserve Fund in less than two years. Such amount represents nearly 37% of the total 66.815 billion fund accumulation. That figure marks the highest cumulative piggy bank draw-down in history, following its commissioning in 2000 and after eleven years in which successive governments did not need to dip into it.

The situation changed dramatically with the height of the crisis. The current government has broken into the social security bank twelve times since 2012. The total amount withdrawn exceeds 24.6 billion euros while 54.69 billion remains.

This implies "at the current depletion rate, in a period of four years or so, the fund would be exhausted".

Advice of the Day

I am sure glad no one sees a problem here. As we all know, problems vanish if you ignore them. It's mind over matter. I learned that from former US secretary of treasury, Tim Geithner.

And as long as you are ignoring some problems, why not ignore all problems?

For example, please ignore Spain's trade deficit unexpectedly rising as noted in Recovery Mirage in Spain Dissipates Into Ashes.

Instead, let's focus on the dramatic improvement of Spain's unemployment rate.

click on chart for sharper image

In a few years, at the current rate of progress, Spain's unemployment rate may be back to a mere 21% or so. Isn't that something to be proud of?

I sure would think so. But will there be anything left in the piggy bank?

What, Me Worry?

To all you naysayer pessimists who may be shocked by the above, please consider this simple question: If Social Security bankruptcy doesn't bother the US, why should it bother Spain or any other country?

Far be it from me, Mish the eternal optimist, to be any sort of worrywart, but your answer must take into account one additional question: Who controls the printing press in the US and who controls the press in Spain?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Japan PMI "Strongest Since March": Does That Mean "Strong"?

Posted: 20 Aug 2014 11:53 PM PDT

The spin in media reporting, in both directions (but typically bullish), is pervasive.

Here is a case in point. Markit reports Japan PMI Points to Strongest Manufacturing Expansion Since March.

Does "strongest since March" mean "strong"?

Here are the Key Points:

Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI™ at 52.4 (50.5 in July). Modest improvement in growth registered in August.
Flash Japan Manufacturing Output Index at 53.2 (49.8 in July). Output increased at solid pace.

A few charts will put this into perspective.

click on chart for sharper image

It seems to me that Japan has been treading water above and below the 50-50 expansion-contraction line for years (mostly below since 2007).

Will this surge prove to be more lasting than any of the others?

If so, please don't credit Abenomics. Instead, I propose the recovery is due to trend exhaustion, in spite of Abenomics.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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