Central Perk: 16 feb. 2013

sâmbătă, 16 februarie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Sinking Yen a "Byproduct, Not a Focus" of Trade Wars Says Japan; G-20 Takes Harder Line on Currencies

Posted: 16 Feb 2013 10:52 PM PST

Japan is in the forefront of the news with ridiculous statements such as a the sinking yen is a "Byproduct, Not a Focus" of its foreign trade policy. I have a simple question "Even if that statement is believable, what difference does it make?"

The answer is none. Regardless, statements from Japanese politicians are not believable in the first place. That helps explain the following Bloomberg headline G-20 Takes Harder Line on Currencies.

Two days of talks between G-20 finance ministers and central bankers ended in Moscow yesterday with a pledge not to "target our exchange rates for competitive purposes," according to a statement. That's stronger than their position three months ago and leaves Japanese officials under pressure to stop publicly giving guidance on their currency's value.

With the yen near its lowest level against the dollar since 2010, policy makers are attempting to soothe concern that some countries are trying to weaken exchange rates to spur growth through exports. The risk is a 1930s-style spiral of devaluations and protectionism if other countries retaliate to safeguard their own economies.

"Politically-motivated devaluations can't sustainably improve competitiveness; they don't solve structural problems and they set off reactions," Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said yesterday. "The clear language in the communiqué underlines this unity and will allow the debate in the future to take place with a less excited tone."

Japanese officials in Moscow denied driving down their currency, arguing its fall was a byproduct -- not a focus -- of their effort to revive the world's third-largest economy.

Japanese officials aren't alone in accepting a cheaper currency as good for growth.

Bank of England policy maker Martin Weale said in a speech yesterday that although U.K. central bankers don't "target the exchange rate," there is reason to tolerate any inflation resulting from the pound's six-year decline.

Not all G-20 policy makers want a weaker currency. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said in a Feb. 13 interview that "the exchange rate of the euro is broadly in line with fundamentals" and "you cannot really say that the euro is seriously overvalued."

Mathematically Impossible

As I have commented numerous time recently, global currency wars are heating up as every nation believes it can export its way out of a slump.

In spite of statements by Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, it's important to note that Weidmann does not set ECB policy. Realistically, Weidmann appears to have as much influence on ECB policy as hawks have on Fed policy (and that is not much).

The ECB wants a cheaper euro, the Fed wants a cheaper dollar, China wants a cheaper yuan, and Japan wants a cheaper yen.

Mathematical reality says that's impossible, yet that is what every country wants to achieve.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Can You Beat a Chimpanzee in a Memory Test?

Posted: 16 Feb 2013 09:32 AM PST

Here is an interesting video showing the ability of chimpanzees to memorize and recall random patterns of light flashes better than what one in a thousand humans could do. All chimps seem to have this recall ability.

Play the video, it's fascinating.

The Financial Times has a related story in Memory of chimps 'far better than human'.

Chimpanzees can far outperform humans in some mental tasks, including rapidly memorising and recalling numbers, Japanese scientists have shown.

At the American Association for the Advancement of Science annual meeting, Tetsuro Matsuzawa, of Kyoto University's Primate Research Institute, showed remarkable videos of chimpanzees displaying mental dexterity that would be way beyond most people.

The star performer among the institute's 14 chimpanzees, a 12-year-old male called Ayumu, has learnt all the numerals from 1 to 19. Several other Kyoto chimpanzees have learnt 1 to 9.

When the numbers flash up in random places across a computer screen and in random order, and disappear after less than a second, the apes can point immediately to the exact locations where the numerals had been, in the correct numerical order.

Prof Matsuzawa said a few exceptional people, such as those with savant syndrome, might be capable of such memory feats but they are far beyond the average human brain. "One person in several thousand may be able to do this," he said. "All the chimps I have tested can do it."

Prof Matsuzawa, who combines the study of wild chimpanzees in west Africa with research using the captive colony in Kyoto, said such a good working memory – the ability to take in an accurate, detailed image of a complex scene or pattern – was an important survival tool in the wild.

For example, the apes can quickly assess and remember the distribution of edible fruit in a forest canopy. Or, when two rival bands of chimpanzees encounter one another, they can assess the strength of the rival group and decide whether to fight or flee.

Lumosity Games

A quick search led me to another video of Ayumu the chimpanzee, this time on Lumosity.Com.

Click on the link for an opportunity to see if you can beat Ayumu in a short-term memory test.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

SEO Blog

How cheap is Cheap Web Hosting

Posted: 15 Feb 2013 10:48 PM PST

Cheap web hosting is basically preferred by many organizations and businesses today, especially those cheap web hosts that extend free domain names. You have to select the most reliable and beneficial service provider for guaranteed efficient technical support and complete uptime. The most important part lies in selecting a service...
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4 ways how SEO is expected to change in 2013

Posted: 15 Feb 2013 08:09 PM PST

Over the last one year the search scene has changed to a large extend. The year 2012, has proven to be quite eventful due to the shifts in the SEO survival. An enormous crackdown on spammy websites due to the EMD updates was just one of the scathing steps. Google...
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Weekly Address: Following the President’s Plan for a Strong Middle Class

Saturday, February 16, 2013

Weekly Address: Following the President’s Plan for a Strong Middle Class

In this week’s address, President Obama calls for quick action on the proposals he made during the State of the Union to grow our economy and create jobs, including making America a magnet for manufacturing, strengthening our education system through high-quality preschool for every child, and raising the minimum wage.

Watch this week's Weekly Address.

Seth's Blog : Is a famous thinker better than a great one?

Is a famous thinker better than a great one?

Does a bestselling author have more to say than someone who has written a brilliant book that didn't sell?

Does a tenured professor at Yale deserve more credence than someone doing breakthrough work at a local state school?

If the violinist in the subway has played to packed houses, does that make him better than the previously unknown singer around the next corner?

For physical goods, a trusted brand name certainly increases the likelihood of purchase, because the risk is lower. We figure that Nabisco is less likely to sell us an unflavorful dust cookie than some unknown brand at the health food store. For a new flavor, the brand makes it an easier choice.

An idea is different, though, because the only apparent cost is the time it takes to hear it. (That's not really true, of course).

And yet we hesitate to invest the time to hear ideas from lesser-known sources. It's not fair to the unknown inventor, but it's true.

I think this is changing, and fast. The permeability of the web means that you don't have to start at the top, don't have to get picked by TED or a by a big blog or by anyone with influence. Pick yourself.

It's true that when you pick yourself, people aren't as likely to embrace your idea (at first). That's because the personal risk of hearing new ideas from new places is the fear that our opinion of the idea might not match everyone else's. The real risk of interacting with unproven ideas is the fear that we might not react in a way our peers expect. The desire to fit in often overwhelms our curiosity.

It takes quite a bit of work (and a lot of luck) to acquire a level of fame. The question that might be worth asking is whether or not that effort is related to the quality of ideas underneath. Harvard has been around for nearly 400 years. That doesn't mean the brand name is worth as much as we might be inclined to believe.

Branding started with pottery, beer and biscuits. Now it effects the way we think about ideas, people and even science. Buyer beware.