Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- German Manufacturing Declines Again, New Export Orders Fall at Fastest Pace Since April 2009
- How to Get to Mars
- Asia Export Machine Cracks Wide Open: South Korea Production Falls at Fastest Rate in Eight Months; Taiwan Exports Deteriorate Sharply; Global Recession Call Revisited
- China New Export Orders Drop Most Since March 2009, Operating Conditions Down 10th Consecutive Month; China's Export Machine Grind to a Halt
German Manufacturing Declines Again, New Export Orders Fall at Fastest Pace Since April 2009 Posted: 03 Sep 2012 08:33 PM PDT The Markit Germany Manufacturing PMI® – Final Data shows the German export downturn gathers momentum. Key points:Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Posted: 03 Sep 2012 06:45 PM PDT In the spirit of Labor Day weekend, and a well-deserved break from grim economic news, please consider "How to Get to Mars" Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Posted: 03 Sep 2012 10:01 AM PDT It's not just Chinese manufacturers that are struggling. It is also Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. In other words, the Asian export machine has cracked wide open. South Korea The Markit South Korea Manufacturing PMI® shows Production Falls at Fastest Rate in Eight Months. Taiwan The Markit Taiwan Manufacturing PMI™ shows Output contracts at steepest pace in the year-to-date. Key pointsChina Earlier today I noted China New Export Orders Drop Most Since March 2009, Operating Conditions Down 10th Consecutive Month Japan On August 31, I noted Japan Manufacturing PMI Hits 16 Month Low, New Orders Plunge Global Recession In the South Korea report it was interesting to see the line "respondents stated that the global recession had adversely affected production". I certainly believe the global economy is in recession and stated so on July 11 in Case for US and Global Recession Right Here, Right Now. Recession Definitions Contrary to popular myth, recession does not mean two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Rather, two consecutive quarters of economic contraction is a sufficient, but not necessary condition. In the US, the NBER is the official designator of recession start and end points. Many recessions have started with GDP still growing. The "Conditions for Global Recession" are even looser. "The International Monetary Fund (IMF) considers a global recession as a period where gross domestic product (GDP) growth is at 3% or less. In addition to that, the IMF looks at declines in real per-capita world GDP along with several global macroeconomic factors before confirming a global recession." Global GDP will struggle to rise 1% and it may even contract. Even 2% is in recession territory, and that is a given. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Posted: 02 Sep 2012 11:49 PM PDT The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI™ shows Manufacturing sector operating conditions worsened at the sharpest rate in 41 months. SummaryChina's Export Machine Grind to a Halt Notice the last sentence above regarding what China allegedly "must" do. Also note the faith in "easing" to stabilize growth. Economists seem to believe the role of central banks is to prevent every recession. That policy works for a while, then as happened in the US with the housing crash, an even bigger recession occurs that the central bank is unable to stop or even slow. The US economy is cooling substantially and Europe is a complete basket case. Moreover, China's infrastructure is already seriously overbuilt. There are no magic solutions for China. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
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