Central Perk: 5 oct. 2014

duminică, 5 octombrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Air Strikes on Isis Not Working; What's Next?

Posted: 05 Oct 2014 07:27 PM PDT

Isis fighters are closing in on the city of Kobani near the Turkish border. ISIS evades air strikes simply by scattering when planes approach.

The Guardian reports Air Strikes Against Isis are not Working, say Syrian Kurds.

US-led air strikes in northern Syria have failed to interrupt the advance of Islamic State (Isis) fighters closing in on a key city on the Turkish border, raising questions about the western strategy for defeating the jihadi movement.

Almost two weeks after the Pentagon extended its aerial campaign from Iraq to neighbouring Syria in an attempt to take on Isis militants in their desert strongholds, Kurdish fighters said the bombing campaign was having little impact in driving them back.

Isis units have edged to within two kilometres of the centre of Kobani, according to Kurds fighting a rearguard action inside the city. The jihadis, who this weekend generated further outrage with the murder of the British hostage Alan Henning, are simply too numerous to be cowed by the air assault by US fighter jets, the Kurds say.

"Air strikes alone are really not enough to defeat Isis in Kobani," said Idris Nassan, a senior spokesman for the Kurdish fighters desperately trying to defend the important strategic redoubt from the advancing militants. "They are besieging the city on three sides, and fighter jets simply cannot hit each and every Isis fighter on the ground."

He said Isis had adapted its tactics to military strikes from the air. "Each time a jet approaches, they leave their open positions, they scatter and hide. What we really need is ground support. We need heavy weapons and ammunition in order to fend them off and defeat them."

What's Next?

Most likely the US will drop more and more bombs, with 20% of the bombs finding the right targets, 40% the wrong targets, and the remaining 40% doing nothing. This will be labeled as a "success".

However, many so-called moderates will get fed up with US action and join ISIS.

Then, after another beheading or two, Obama will send in more ground troops and weapons, but purportedly only for training and aiding moderates who will take the weapons and training in directions contrary to the stated intentions.

My Take

The US and UK should issue a travel advisory labeled "beheadings happen". The advisory should tell everyone, including journalists to get the hell out of the region and if they don't, they are on their own.

Tax dollars should not go to protect those who voluntarily put themselves in harm's way. This is not a disparaging comment on journalists, who choose to do what they do. I commend them for wanting to get the story out.

Rather, my comments are a simple practical matter: The US has no obligation to protect anyone who voluntarily puts themselves in harm's way outside the US.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

800 Towns in Catalonia Pledge Support for Independence Referendum; Humpty Dumpty Chides Artur Mas

Posted: 05 Oct 2014 12:02 PM PDT

Inquiring minds may be interested in the latest events in Europe on an otherwise slow news weekend. Via translation from El Singular, 800 Towns in Catalonia Openly Pledge Support for Independence Referendum.

This morning, more than 800 mayors delivered to Catalan president Mas certificates in support of the November 9 referendum for Independence. The mayors represent 96% of the Catalan municipalities. A total of 920 councils who have so far voted in favor of N-9, but some mayors did not want to participate in the event.

Since 1918 there has not been a similar concentration of mayors in Catalonia.

The Mayor of Barcelona, Xavier Trias, thanked the 800 mayors who approved the motion to defend the right to decide.

"It is our responsibility to fulfill the legitimate mandate coming from all over Catalonia," emphasized Trias and asked the mayors to do everything they can to ensure Catalans have the right to vote on November 9.

71% of Catalans Support Right to Vote

The Wall Street Journal notes overwhelming support for the referendum.

A poll taken last week by the regional government's Center of Opinion Studies found 71% of Catalans favored the Nov. 9 referendum.

Catalan separatists say Spain's central government doesn't respect their language and culture, or give them a fair return on their taxes. Spanish leaders say Catalonia has plenty of autonomy, and that the Catalan political class just needs to put its house in order.

Without a doubt the number would be far higher than 71% if Spain's government had not declared the vote illegal.

Catalonia Autonomy

Let's take a look at the region of Catalonia.

Statutes of Autonomy

In the Spanish Constitution of 1978 Catalonia, along with the Basque Country and Galicia, was defined as a "nationality". The same constitution gave Catalonia the automatic right to autonomy, which resulted in the Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia of 1979.

Both the 1979 Statute of Autonomy and the current one, approved in 2006, state that "Catalonia, as a nationality, exercises its self-government constituted as an Autonomous Community in accordance with the Constitution and with the Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia, which is its basic institutional law, always under the law in Spain".

The Preamble of the 2006 Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia states that the Parliament of Catalonia has defined Catalonia as a nation, but that "the Spanish Constitution recognizes Catalonia's national reality as a nationality". While the Statute was approved by and sanctioned by both the Catalan and Spanish parliaments, and later by referendum in Catalonia, it has been subject to a legal challenge by the surrounding autonomous regions of Aragon, Balearic Islands and the Valencian Community, as well as by the conservative People's Party.

Spain's Constitutional Court assessed the disputed articles and on 28 June 2010, issued its judgment on the principal allegation of unconstitutionality presented by the People's Party in 2006. The judgment granted clear passage to 182 articles of the 223 that make up the fundamental text. The court approved 73 of the 114 articles that the People's Party had contested, while declaring 14 articles unconstitutional in whole or in part and imposing a restrictive interpretation on 27 others.

The court accepted the specific provision that described Catalonia as a "nation", however ruled that it was a historical and cultural term with no legal weight, and that Spain remained the only nation recognized by the constitution.

Humpty Dumpty Chides Artur Mas

Catalonia is already a nation but the term has no "legal weight".

'When I use a word,' Humpty Dumpty (Mariano Rajoy) said, in a rather scornful tone,' it means just what I choose it to mean, neither more nor less.'

'The question is,' said Alice (Artur Mas) 'whether you can make words mean so many different things.'

'The question is,' said Humpty Dumpty (Mariano Rajoy), 'which is to be master - that's all.'

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Cassandra and Pollyanna

Cassandra and Pollyanna

You will often hear from people who will announce that it's all over, that this is the crisis that ends it, once and for all. The Cassandra sees the end of the road for the project or the brand or the culture. It's the end, now.

Cassandra is countered by the Pollyanna, who thinks everything is fine, will be fine and always is fine.

The thing is: failure almost always arrives in a whimper. It is almost always the result of missed opportunities, a series of bad choices and the rust that comes from things gradually getting worse.

Things don't usually explode. They melt.