Central Perk: 26 mai 2015

marți, 26 mai 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

$500 Million LA Home - Built on Spec
Regional Manufacturing Comparative Wrap-Up: Empire State, Philly, Kansas City, Richmond, Dallas
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Collapses: Lowest Production Reading in 6 Years, Orders Contract 7th Month, New Orders 5th Month
New Home Sales Bounce From Dismal April Numbers

Posted: 26 May 2015 03:29 PM PDT

To highlight the enormous and growing income inequality issue, please consider California Dreaming: Record $500 Million Tag on L.A. Home.

Nile Niami, a film producer and speculative residential developer, is pouring concrete in L.A.'s Bel Air neighborhood for a compound with a 74,000-square-foot (6,900-square-meter) main residence and three smaller homes, according to city records. The project, which will take at least 20 more months to complete, will exceed 100,000 square feet, including a 5,000-square-foot master bedroom, a 30-car garage and a "Monaco-style casino," Niami said.

"The house will have almost every amenity available in the world," he wrote in an e-mail. "The asking price will be $500 million."

The priciest home ever sold was a $221 million London penthouse purchased in 2011, according to Christie's. The most expensive properties on the market include a $425 million estate in France's Cote d'Azur, a $400 million penthouse in Monaco and a $365 million London manor.

Whether Niami can get more than double the previous record for his mansion remains to be seen.

Under Construction

Nile Niami House at 944 Airole Way stands in Bel Air, California, U.S., on Monday, May 18, 2015.
Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

Questions of the Day

What is the estimated profit on this monstrosity?
What are the construction carrying costs if this thing goes unsold?
What about insurance?
Who wants to lay $500 million to live in LA?
How many people in the world can afford a half-billion dollar home?
Does anyone who can afford such a home, want one?
Could a single California mudslide wipe the entire property off the map?

I don't have any answers, I am just asking.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Regional Manufacturing Comparative Wrap-Up: Empire State, Philly, Kansas City, Richmond, Dallas

Posted: 26 May 2015 12:49 PM PDT

Two more regional manufacturing reports came out today, from Dallas and Richmond.

The Dallas region was the weakest in six years thanks to oil. For details, please see Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Collapses: Lowest Production Reading in 6 Years, Orders Contract 7th Month, New Orders 5th Month.

Comparative Wrap-Up

Component	Richmond	Kansas City	Phillly	Empire State	Dallas
Date	26-May	21-May	15-May	5-May	26-May
Index	1.0	-13.0	6.7	3.1	-20.8
Production	N/A	-13.0	N/A	N/A	-13.5
Shipments	-1.0	-9.0	1.0	14.9	-11.6
New Orders	2.0	-19.0	4.0	3.9	-14.1
Order Backlog	-10.0	-21.0	-1.1	-11.5	-10.6
Employees	3.0	-17.0	6.7	5.2	-8.2
Workweek	6.0	-14.0	-5.6	-2.1	-11.6
Prices Received	N/A	-4.0	-5.4	1.0	-8.7
Prices Paid	N/A	-6.0	-14.2	9.4	-1.7

Reports

May 05: Empire State
May 15: Philly
May 21: Kansas City
May 26: Richmond
May 26: Dallas

Notes:

Some regions use the term "order backlog" others "unfilled orders"
Some regions had a production index component, others not.
Richmond discussed prices paid and received on an annualized basis, not an index component that could be directly compared to the others.

Significant Points

The Dallas and Kansas City regions were both hammered by collapse in oil prices and oil related services.
Order Backlog was negative across the board.
Employee Workweek was down in four of five regions.
Prices Received was down in three of four regions.

In aggregate, these are weak to very weak reports.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Collapses: Lowest Production Reading in 6 Years, Orders Contract 7th Month, New Orders 5th Month

Posted: 26 May 2015 10:13 AM PDT

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Plunges Below Any Economist's Estimate

Fed manufacturing surveys remain weak at best. Today the Dallas Fed Business Activity Index fell to negative 20.8, well below the bottom end of any Bloomberg Estimate.

Contraction in the energy sector continues to pull the Dallas Fed report into deeply negative ground, to a headline minus 20.8 vs minus 16.0 and minus 17.4 in the prior two months. Production shows a turn for the worse, at minus 13.5 vs April's minus 4.7, as does employment, at minus 8.2 vs plus 1.8. New orders remain deeply negative, at minus 14.1 vs minus 14.0. Prices paid also fell further though the decline is easing, to minus 1.7 from minus 11.2.

The regional Fed reports all point to another slow month for the manufacturing sector which is struggling with energy contraction, especially evident in this report, as well as weakness in exports.

Dallas Fed Production Index Lowest in 6 Years

Orders Contract 7th Month, New Orders 5th Month

For additional details, let's dive into the Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

Texas factory activity declined again in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell to -13.5, its lowest reading in six years.

Other measures of current manufacturing activity reflected continued contraction in May. The new orders index held steady at -14.1, and the growth rate of orders index held steady at -15.2, marking the fifth and seventh negative reading in a row for these indexes. The capacity utilization index edged down to -11.6. The shipments index fell nearly 8 points to -13.2, with more than 30 percent of firms noting lower shipment volumes in May than in April.

Perceptions of broader business conditions worsened further this month. The general business activity index fell to -20.8 in May, its lowest reading since June 2009. The company outlook index moved down to -10.5, also hitting a low not seen since summer 2009.

Labor market indicators reflected employment declines and shorter workweeks. The May employment index declined 10 points to -8.2, after rebounding slightly above zero last month. Twelve percent of firms reported net hiring, compared with 21 percent reporting net layoffs. The hours worked index fell from -5 to -11.6.

Changes in prices and wages were mixed in May. Downward pressure on input costs abated, as the raw materials prices index pushed up toward zero, coming in at -1.7. The finished goods prices index edged down to -8.7, its fifth negative reading in a row and suggestive of falling selling prices. Meanwhile, the wages and benefits index remained positive and little changed at 14.7.

As I suggested last month, the jobs rebound in April was an outlier.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

New Home Sales Bounce From Dismal April Numbers

Posted: 26 May 2015 09:43 AM PDT

New Home Sales Rebound

Last month, new home sales fell a very steep 11.4 percent to a 481,000 annual rate. Given the volatile nature of this series one might have expected a bounce in May and sure enough we got one, albeit not enough to wipe out April's dismal performance.

May new home sales came in at an annualized rate of 517,000 units, stronger than the Bloomberg Consensus Estimate of 509,000 but pretty much in the middle of the consensus range of 485,000 to 540,000.

New home sales bounced back solidly in April, up 6.8 percent to a 517,000 annual rate that is on the high side of Econoday expectations. Strength is centered in the South which is the largest and important housing region and where sales rose 5.8 percent, this however fails to reverse the region's 11.8 percent drop in the prior month.

Supply rose slightly in the month, to 205,000 new homes on the market, but supply relative to sales fell to 4.8 months from 5.1 month. Low supply should encourage builders to bring more homes on the market but at the same time low supply hurts current sales. Price readings are mostly favorable led by a 4.1 percent rise in the median price to $297,300 for a strong 8.3 percent year-on-year gain.

Readings in this report are always volatile month-to-month but the gains for April underscore the recent surge in housing starts & permits and help offset last week's disappointing weakness in existing home sales. The housing sector is still trying to get off the ground but indications, taken together, are improving.

New Home Sales

The above chart should help put the rebound of new home sales into proper perspective.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Rooms Where Romanian Prison Inmates Have Conjugal Visits
Street Food From Around The World That You Must Try
Bizarre Things You Will Only See On Japanese Game Shows

Rooms Where Romanian Prison Inmates Have Conjugal Visits

Posted: 26 May 2015 12:25 PM PDT

Cosmin Bumbut is a photographer who recently put together a project called The Intimate Room. He photographed 35 different penitentiaries across Romania to showcase the rooms where the inmates have sex. This is what they look like.