Central Perk: 12 oct. 2013

sâmbătă, 12 octombrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Posted: 12 Oct 2013 03:20 PM PDT

Economists expected a 6% rise in Chinese exports. Instead, exports fell 0.3%. Please consider China's September export growth in surprise slide.

China's export growth fizzled in September to post a surprise fall as sales to Southeast Asia tumbled, data showed, a disappointing break to a recent run of indicators that had signaled its economy gaining strength.

China's exports dropped 0.3 percent in September from a year earlier, the Customs Administration said on Saturday, sharply confounding market expectations for a rise of 6 percent, and marking the worst performance in three months.

Imports fared better, rising 7.4 percent in September from a year ago, better than forecasts for a 7 percent increase, shrinking China's monthly trade surplus to $15.2 billion.

Analysts said weak exports underscored worries about flagging global demand, which may crumble further in coming months - especially in emerging markets - when tighter U.S. monetary policy pushes investors away from developing economies.

Indeed, the data showed Chinese exports to Southeast Asia, China's fastest-growing export market in the past year, dived to a 17-month low in September. Capital outflows from the region on bets that the U.S. central bank will cut its bond purchases had hit demand, said Louis Kuijs, an economist at RBS in Hong Kong.

"Looking ahead, export data may be quite weak in the coming months," Kuijs said, adding that financial turmoil in several emerging markets had dragged on global demand.

Hardly Surprising

For reasons discussed many times on this blog, the news is hardly surprising. Moreover, with exports down and imports up, China's GDP is going to "surprise" economists on the downside as well.

For the real story on Chinese growth and why it will not be as strong as most analysts expect, here is some additional reading.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Silliness From Boehner Rejected by Obama; Cut Losses, End the Madness

Posted: 12 Oct 2013 09:46 AM PDT

Bloomberg reports Boehner Said Obama Rejected Fiscal Offer.

House Speaker John Boehner told fellow Republicans today that President Barack Obama rejected his latest fiscal offer, said Representative Raul Labrador, an Idaho Republican.

"The president rejected our deal," Labrador told reporters after leaving Republicans' closed-door meeting in Washington.

House Republican leaders' plan would extend U.S. borrowing authority to Nov. 22 from Oct. 17 and would make some changes to Obama's health-care law, structured in a way that could meet the political needs of each side to claim success.

The Deal

Boehner wants to end a tax on medical devices
Extend the debt ceiling limit to November 22

Why bother? Does anyone think an agreement of substance can be hammered out by November 22.

Amusingly, Boehner's proposal increases the deficit by $32 billion.

So much for fiscal prudence.

I still expect six Senate Republicans to pass a clean measure and send it to the House where it would pass if Boehner allowed a vote.

Cut Losses, End the Madness

Republicans should just concede and allow a vote to end the shutdown without conditions, Representative Peter King, a New York Republican, said in an interview yesterday.

"We should cut our losses and get it over with," he said. "It's madness to keep the government closed any longer."

As I mentioned before, the risk to Boehner, is House members use a discharge petition to force a vote. There are close to 30 Republicans willing to extend the debt ceiling, and the measure only needs about 17 to pass.

As it stands, Republicans do not want to overrule Boehner via discharge petition to force the vote. If the Senate passes a clean bill, pressure on Boehner will be intense.

I strongly support a balanced budget, reduced spending, and other things Republicans want, but the battle is not going to be won this way.

In case you missed it, please consider Pragmatic Look at the Debt Ceiling Debate; Who Broke Washington?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Congrats, your video's now on YouTube!

Way to go, Mihai T!
Your video's now on YouTube.

Receptie Cora


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Seth's Blog : Is Google jumping the shark?

Is Google jumping the shark?

Ron Howard explained that while they were shooting the notorious episode where Fonzie jumped the shark, he knew the show had turned a corner. In the case of Happy Days, the corner was the chasing of ratings at the cost of integrity. In the case of corporations, the corner is usually the chasing of profit at the expense of the original mission.

These places don't run out of creativity. You don't jump the shark because you're empty, you do it because there's pressure to be greedy.

Google has been found to have hacked and stolen user data, circumventing privacy settings. They've recently announced that without asking first or sharing the upside, they may be selling the names and faces of people who use Google + to advertisers, to be included in endorsement ads. People expressing themselves online might soon find themselves starring in ads as unpaid, unwilling endorsers.

How does this happen? Public companies almost inevitably seek to grow profits faster than expected, which means beyond the organic growth that comes from doing what made them great in the first place. In order to gain that profit, it's typical to hire people and reward them for measuring and increasing profits, even at the expense of what the company originally set out to do.

Every company at a certain stage ends up with two sorts of employees... some that work hard to improve the experience and value for the original customers, and some that tear down that experience and value in order to please shareholders in the short run.

It's not surprising, but it's sad.

The irony here is that in the long run, what the advertisers are telling companies like Google they want isn't what is going to build it into an even better company (or even help the advertisers) in the long run.

Advertisers often seem to want pitchmen spraying perfume at every person who walks into the store, inserts stuffed into every periodical, pop up ads, complete data on every individual they target and the ability to spam at will. Great media companies fight back on all of these intrusions, because they know that what actually works is genuine connection built around remarkable products and services.