Central Perk: 3 mar. 2014

luni, 3 martie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Nigel Farage: "UKIP Biggest Threat to Political Establishment in Modern Times"
ISM Rebounds "Stronger than Expected" But for How Long?
Ruble Sinks to Record Low; Russia Intervenes in Currency Markets to Stabilize Ruble; Russia Denies Ultimatum
Ukraine Ships Get Russian Ultimatum; One Misstep from Outright War; Russia Denies Ultimatum

Nigel Farage: "UKIP Biggest Threat to Political Establishment in Modern Times"

Posted: 03 Mar 2014 03:32 PM PST

Inquiring minds, especially Nigel Farage and UKIP supporters, are encouraged by Nigel Farage's Spring Conference Speech.

Farage: "This party [UKIP] is on the march. Indeed, I think and believe we are posing the biggest threat to the political establishment that has been seen in modern times."

Let's hope so. And let's hope Rand Paul provides an even bigger threat in the US.

I wish UKIP well in the May 2014 European parliament elections. Of course, Rand Paul 2016!

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

ISM Rebounds "Stronger than Expected" But for How Long?

Posted: 03 Mar 2014 11:26 AM PST

The ISM rebounded this month as noted by the February 2014 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in February for the ninth consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 57th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

Index	Feb Index	Jan Index	Percentage Point Change	Direction	Rate of Change	Trend in Months
PMI®	53.2	51.3	1.9	Growing	Faster	9
New Orders	54.5	51.2	3.3	Growing	Faster	9
Production	48.2	54.8	-6.6	Contracting	From Growing	1
Employment	52.3	52.3	0	Growing	Same	8
Supplier Deliveries	58.5	54.3	4.2	Slowing	Faster	9
Inventories	52.5	44	8.5	Growing	From Contracting	1
Customers' Inventories	46.5	44	2.5	Too Low	Slower	27
Prices	60	60.5	-0.5	Increasing	Slower	7
Backlog of Orders	52	48	4	Growing	From Contracting	1
Exports	53.5	54.5	-1	Growing	Slower	15
Imports	53.5	53.5	0	Growing	Same	13

"Stronger than Expected"

Following the big downward surprise last month, today's release of the ISM Manufacturing report was stronger than expected.

The consensus estimate was 52.0, the rebound was to 53.3.

Last month the expectation was a reading of 56. Instead the ISM Fell to 51.3 With the Largest Decline in New Orders in 4 Years.

No doubt the weather was a factor in some of that plunge. Thus some of the rebound should have been expected. But how much and for how long?

It's clear the global economy is slowing, and the US right along with it. Some will hail this rebound as a sign the US economy is out of the woods. I beg to differ, but time will soon tell. Give it two months.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Ruble Sinks to Record Low; Russia Intervenes in Currency Markets to Stabilize Ruble; Russia Denies Ultimatum

Posted: 03 Mar 2014 10:09 AM PST

Ruble Sinks to Record Low

The ruble is down 1.43% today, 9.81% for the year.

Russia sold $10 billion and hiked interest rates hoping to stop the decline.

Russia Intervenes in Currency Markets to Stabilize Ruble

Bloomberg reports Ruble Plunges to Record as Bank Rossii Seen Selling $10 Billion.

Bank Rossii poured dollars into the currency market, with traders estimating sales of about $10 billion, and raised interest rates after the threat of Western sanctions against Russia sent the ruble to a record low.

Policy makers are stepping up efforts to shore up the ruble as investor demand for Russian assets dries up after President Vladimir Putin's military forces took over parts of neighboring Ukraine. The ruble sank 1.8 percent against the dollar today, more than any other currency tracked by Bloomberg, while the benchmark Micex stock index plunged more than 11 percent and benchmark bond yields soared.

"So far, the panic goes on," Dmitry Dorofeev, a money manager at BCS Financial Group in Moscow, said by e-mail. "The central bank's decision should help support the ruble in current conditions, but it's very negative for debt."

Bank Rossii sold at least $10 billion to support the ruble today, according to Pavel Demetchik, a trader at ING Groep in Moscow. Dmitry Dorofeev, a money manager at BCS Financial Group, estimated sales of at least $7 billion. Bank Rossii's press service said it won't comment on today intervention. The size of the sales is set to be published in two days, per the regulator's information policy. Russia's foreign reserves have fallen $40 billion since May to $493.4 billion, according to data through Feb. 21.

The central bank surprised investors today by raising its key rate 1.5 percentage points to 7 percent today in a bid to halt the declines at the risk of deepening an economic slowdown.

Russia Hikes Rates to Salvage Ruble; Stocks sink

Marketwatch reports Russia Hikes Rates to Salvage Ruble; Stocks sink.

While Russian troops amassed on the Crimean border, investors dumped the Russian ruble and stocks, following a weekend of tensions over Ukraine.

The selling — including an 11% plunge in the local market index — was such that the Russian central bank decided to "temporarily" hike interest rates to 7% from 5.5% on Monday, though the policy move hasn't turned the tide.

"The decision is aimed at preventing the emergency of risks to inflation and financial stability associated with the recently observed increased levels of volatility in the financial markets," the Central Bank of the Russian Federation said in a translated statement on its website.

The ruble had been slowly sinking against the dollar over the last few months, but the move accelerated on Monday after a weekend of escalating tensions. Western leaders threatened sanctions on Sunday and Ukraine's leaders called the Russian troops that have massed in Crimea a "declaration of war."

The ruble sank more than 1.8% against the dollar, to uncharted territory, and also 1.8% against the Euro. Other currencies, such as the Hungarian forint and Polish zloty declined as well, losing 0.5% and 1% against the dollar.

Russian stocks also were hammered Monday. The blue-chip MICEX index plunged 11% on Monday and is down 14% so far this year.

Russia Denies Ultimatum

Moments after I reported the ultimatum story, Bloomberg had this followup: Ukraine Crisis Intensifies as Russia Denies Navy Ultimatum Claim.

Ukraine said Russia's navy ordered two of its ships in Crimea to surrender amid the worst standoff between the West and Russia since the end of the Cold War. A Russian Defense Ministry official denied the claim.

Russia's Black Sea fleet gave the ships, located near the port of Sevastopol, until 5 a.m. to give up weapons and capitulate, Oleksiy Kirchkov, deputy commander of the Ternopil, told Ukraine's Channel 5 by phone. The Russian official, who asked not to be named, called Ukraine's claim disinformation. Western diplomats are seeking to calm tensions in Ukraine, with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry arriving in Kiev today.

It is difficult keeping up with fast-flowing news and denials.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Ukraine Ships Get Russian Ultimatum; One Misstep from Outright War; Russia Denies Ultimatum

Posted: 03 Mar 2014 09:40 AM PST

The situation in Europe took another turn for the worse as Ukraine Ships Get Russian Ultimatum.

Ukraine said Russia's navy ordered two of its ships in Crimea to surrender amid the worst standoff between the West and Russia since the end of the Cold War.

The head of Russia's Black Sea fleet gave the ships, located near the port of Sevastopol, until 5 a.m. tomorrow to give up weapons and capitulate, Oleksiy Kirchkov, deputy commander of the Ternopil, told Ukraine's Channel 5 by phone. Western diplomats are seeking to calm tensions in Ukraine, with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry arriving in Kiev today.

Calls to Russia's Defense Ministry and navy in Moscow and the Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol went unanswered.

One Misstep from Outright War

One misstep, by either side, is likely to start a war. Let's hope it does not come to that.

Addendum

Russia Denies Ultimatum

Moments after I reported the ultimatum story, Bloomberg had this followup: Ukraine Crisis Intensifies as Russia Denies Navy Ultimatum Claim.

Ukraine said Russia's navy ordered two of its ships in Crimea to surrender amid the worst standoff between the West and Russia since the end of the Cold War. A Russian Defense Ministry official denied the claim.

Russia's Black Sea fleet gave the ships, located near the port of Sevastopol, until 5 a.m. to give up weapons and capitulate, Oleksiy Kirchkov, deputy commander of the Ternopil, told Ukraine's Channel 5 by phone. The Russian official, who asked not to be named, called Ukraine's claim disinformation. Western diplomats are seeking to calm tensions in Ukraine, with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry arriving in Kiev today.

It is difficult keeping up with fast-flowing news and denials.

Nonetheless, to paraphrase my previous warning, one misstep by either side can cause serious complications.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Here's what happened at the Student Film Festival

Monday, March 3, 2014

Here's what happened at the Student Film Festival

Last Friday, we hosted the first-ever White House Student Film Festival.

Students from all across the country created more than 2,500 short films illustrating the role that technology plays in their classrooms, why it's so important, and how it will change the educational experience for kids in the future.

More than 60 of the young filmmakers came to the White House for the festival, where we screened the 16 official selections. And, as the President said himself, "these movies are awesome."

Did you miss it? Watch the official selections and our honorable mentions, as well as the President's remarks.

President Obama speaks with students at the White House Student Film Festival.

President Barack Obama speaks with students in the State Dining Room prior to the White House Student Film Festival in the East Room of the White House, Feb. 28, 2014. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

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Mobile Site Audit Checklist

Posted: 02 Mar 2014 03:17 PM PST

Posted by Kristina Kledzik

Now that it's 2014, the question isn't "should I build a mobile site?" It's "how do I build a good mobile site?" Mobile sites are, at their core, just sites; but redesigning your site for very small screens and linking your mobile site to your desktop site gives you a lot more to think about.

I've put together a checklist of a) aspects of mobile sites that are often broken yet overlooked, and b) optimization options that many people miss. Where you need more information, I've included a link rather than a full description, so that people smarter than me can help you with the details.

Connecting your mobile site with your desktop site

Check your redirects

Are redirects set up to get visitors to the specific page they were trying to view, not the homepage?
Are mobile visitors redirected to the mobile version of the site?
Are desktop visitors redirected to the desktop version of the site?

Allow mobile visitors to see the desktop version of the site

Is that option easy to find?
Once mobile visitors choose the desktop version of the site, will they remain on that version as they browse the site? Or will your redirects send them back to the mobile version of the site each time they click on a page?

Dynamically served sites: Check the Vary-HTTP header

Have you set up a Vary-HTTP header to tell Google and browsers that you vary the HTML by user agent?

Separate URL sites: Check rel=alternate/canonical tags

Are desktop pages set up with a rel="alternate" tag pointing to the mobile version of that page?
- In the header, add: <link rel="alternate" media="only screen and (max-width: 640px)" href="http://m.domain.com" />
Are mobile pages set up with a rel="canonical" tag pointing to the desktop version of that page?
- In the header, add: <link rel="canonical" href="http://www.domain.com" />

Technical issues

Use Google Webmaster Tools to see if Google is having a hard time crawling your mobile site

Crawl > Crawl Errors

not

(We have one error. :( )

Google will return pages that it's having a hard time crawling.

Check/add the mobile XML sitemap

Have all mobile pages been submitted to Google via an XML sitemap in Google Webmaster Tools?
Keep mobile pages separate from desktop pages; Google Webmaster Tools reports on the number of pages indexed by separate sitemap. If you keep the two separate, you'll be able to see if fewer mobile pages are indexed than desktop pages.

Review the mobile site as you would review any site

Geoff Kenyon's Technical Site Audit Checklist is a great place to start.

Check the site speed for mobile devices

Google offers an excellent page speed tool that gives a list of recommendations based on its crawl of your site.
This is a more important step than it is in desktop optimization, since phones have less computing power and heavy coding and/or images will lead to an even slower mobile user experience.

Use server-side redirects

Server-side redirects are generally faster, since they don't rely on the weaker computing power of a phone.
301 and 302 redirects send the same message to search engines, so you can use either type.

Design

View the site on a variety of mobile devices

Does it look good on a number of phones?
- Check the top phones on the market. Good examples are the iPhone (iOS), Samsung Galaxy S4 (Android), Nexus 5 (another Android), and Nokia Lumia 520 (Windows).
- Check the top phones that your visitors use, as reported by your web analytics.
Does it look good on a number of tablets?
- Check the top tablets on the market. Good examples are the iPad (iOS), Samsung Galaxy Tab in multiple sizes (Android), Kindle Fire (Amazon), and Asus Transformer Book (Windows).
- Check the top tablets that your visitors use, as reported by your web analytics. Pay attention to the top tablet sizes as well.

Check the size of links

Are all links given a 28x28 pixel margin between other links, so they're easy to click with a finger?

Check that no elements rely on Flash

iPhones can't render it at all, and it's slow on Android.
Look for sneaky uses of Flash, like Flash Player for video.

Make sure the mobile site design matches the desktop site design

Use a viewport tag

Set up a viewport tag to let mobile browsers resize pages so they fit devices perfectly.

Don't use pop-ups

They're too easy to accidentally click and completely take the visitor away from the page s/he wants to be on.
They slow down loading time.

Responsive sites: Review where elements end up

On mobile versions of the site, are the most important elements at the top? Make sure you don't move important right hand elements, like the "add to cart" button, below all other content.
On tablet versions of the site, does everything still make sense?

Navigation

Make sure visitors can reach all pages on the mobile site

Often, navigation will be minimized due to space constraints. Don't let that happen; you just need training in how mobile navigation works.

Separate sites: Link to desktop-only pages as well as mobile pages

Only offering a small portion of your desktop site to mobile visitors is frustrating.
If visitors aren't interested in that content, including a link won't cause a problem because no one will click on it.
If visitors are interested in that content, you can use analytics data to show that mobile visitors choose to click on that link.

Content

Map mobile to desktop pages

There should be an equivalent mobile page for every desktop page.
There may be more mobile than desktop pages, since it's often easier to navigate mobile sites if you break up the desktop content into multiple pages.
In some instances, you may have extra mobile pages based on location capabilities, but it's still best to offer them in both versions, so visitors never feel like they can't find something they remembered on your site.

Edit wordy content

Mobile visitors have to deal with small screens, and are often on the go and have less patience.
Get the same message across as briefly as possible.

Remove unnecessary images

They slow down page loading time and aren't needed to fill up extra screen space.
Ads are particularly annoying on mobile screens, so if ads are a side business and not your primary source of revenue, consider cutting back on them on your mobile site.

Video

View videos on the mobile site to make sure they load and run properly

Use an HTML5 video player

It's lightweight and easy for phones to render.
If you're using a major hosting platform, you're probably already using an HTML5 video player.

Make your videos responsive

Necessary if you have a responsive site, but still recommended if you don't. Since phones are different sizes, you want the video to snap to fit the screen width.
If you're hosting YouTube, Vimeo, or your own videos, you can add a bit of code to make them responsive.
If you're using a paid platform like Wistia, they may offer code to make videos responsive (Wistia's is Video Foam).

SERP differences

Does each page title look good on two lines?

Google still gives you approximately 70 characters (512 pixels) in your page title, but the width of the screen forces the page title into two lines.

Does your meta description still work with only 120 characters?

Google cuts off mobile meta descriptions at approximately 120 characters rather than 150 characters in their SERPs.

Is your mobile URL user-friendly and keyword rich?

Google displays the mobile URL rather than the desktop URL for mobile searches, as long as redirects have been set up properly.

Final check

Run pages through the W3C's mobileOK checker to make sure you haven't missed any small coding errors. It's fairly finicky, but that makes sure it finds a lot of issues you may have overlooked.

Further reading on building a great mobile site:
Building Your Mobile-Friendly Site, a Distilled guide by me and Bridget Randolph
How to do a Mobile Site SEO Audit by Aleyda Solis

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