| Japan in Recession Again: How Many Times is That? Posted: 15 Nov 2015 05:06 PM PST Bloomberg notes Japan Enters Recession as Economy Contracts in the Third Quarter. Japan's economy contracted in the third quarter on sluggish business investment, confirming what many economists had predicted: The nation fell into its second recession since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office in December 2012.
Gross domestic product declined an annualized 0.8 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30, following a revised 0.7 drop in the second quarter, the Cabinet Office said Monday in Tokyo. Economists had estimated a 0.2 percent decline for the third quarter.
Weakness in business investment and shrinking inventories contributed to the contraction amid concerns over slower growth in China and the global economy that prompted Japanese companies to hold back on spending and production. While growth is expected to pick up in the current quarter, the GDP report could put pressure on Abe and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to boost fiscal and monetary stimulus. The BOJ holds a policy meeting later this week. Second Recession or Fifth?It may be the second under Shinzo Abe but ZeroHedge posted this chart on the Quintuple-Dip Recession.  Abenomics has been a total failure, as expected. But it did weaken the yen sending the stock market soaring. Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
| Catalan Parliament Approves Plan for Secession from Spain Posted: 15 Nov 2015 04:07 PM PST Everyone's eyes seem glued to the Paris terrorist attack and the refugee crisis, but other significant events in Europe merit a spotlight as well. For example, Catalan Lawmakers Approve Plan for Secession from Spain. The regional parliament of Catalonia launched a plan Monday to set up a road map for independence from Spain by 2017, defying warnings from the central government in Madrid that it is violating the nation's constitution.
Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy pledged to halt the effort.
The chamber, based in the northeastern city of Barcelona, passed the secession resolution in a 72-63 vote.
The proposal was made by pro-secession lawmakers from the "Together for Yes" alliance and the extreme left-wing Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP).
Spain's government reacted swiftly Monday. In a nationally televised address, Rajoy said his government will appeal the decision at the Constitutional Court, which has in the past blocked moves toward independence.
Catalan branches of Spain's ruling conservative Popular Party and the Socialist and the Citizens opposition parties had filed appeals to halt the vote, but Spain's Constitutional Court ruled last Thursday that it could proceed.
Later Monday, the parliament began what is expected to be a long, heated debate over whether Artur Mas should continue for a third term as regional president.
While his "Together for Yes" alliance backs him with 62 votes, it is short of the required majority of 68. The anti-independence parties are against him, and the CUP has said it won't support Mas because of his conservative austerity policies and the corruption investigations involving his Convergence Party.
The parliament has until Jan. 9 to form a government or a new election must be called.
By then, Spain will have held a national election — on Dec. 20 — and the issue of how to handle the situation in Catalonia will play a crucial role in whether the Popular Party can hold onto power.
The ranks of lifelong secessionists, who feel that the Catalan language — spoken along with Spanish in the region — and local traditions can only flourish in an independent state, have been joined by those suffering through Spain's economic problems and who believe that Catalans pay more than their fair share in taxes. Collision CoursePrime minister Mariano Rajoy says " Catalonia is not going anywhere. Nothing is going to break." But what the hell is he going to do? Send in the army? Why shouldn't Catalonia be allowed to break away if that's what the people want? Rajoy says the effort is undemocratic and unconstitutional. Since when do constitutions ever allow states to break away from a country? And if anything is "undemocratic" it is suppression of the will of the people. Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
| France Strikes Back; Increasingly Isolated Merkel Refuses to Change Position Posted: 15 Nov 2015 03:19 PM PST It did not take long for France to strike back. In the wake of Paris attacks, France Launched Air Strikes on Isis Stronghold in Syria. France launched air strikes against Isis targets in Syria on Sunday night, with jets bombing the Islamist terror group's stronghold of Raqqa.
The French defence ministry said 12 aircraft had taken part in raids on a command centre, munitions depot and training camp in Raqqa. The strikes were launched in co-ordination with US forces.
The commitment to "intensify" action against the Islamic terrorist group in Syria came as France and Belgium launched a manhunt for a suspected eighth assailant, named as Abdeslam Salah, after an assault deemed "an act of war" by President François Hollande. Seven terrorists died on Friday night after six set off their explosives and another was shot by the police.
Besides raising questions over the vulnerability of European capitals to terrorism, the Paris attacks revived rightwing calls for tighter border controls across the EU, further complicating an already fraught debate over the migration crisis.
Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, showed little sign of rethinking her approach to migration amid claims that one of the Paris attackers slipped into Europe with the flow of migrants through Greece.
Stressing the need to avoid jumping to conclusions, Ms Merkel said: "We owe this to the victims and their relatives [and] to the many innocent refugees that are fleeing war and terrorism."
Brussels' concerns that the refugee crisis could upend the migration debate and place Europe's passport-free Schengen zone in peril were underlined by Markus Söder, the Bavarian finance minister — of the CSU, sister party to Ms Merkel's CDU — who said: "Paris changes everything." If Germany could not secure its borders, he said, "then Bavaria can take on this task".
Ben Rhodes, the US deputy national security adviser, said he was confident that in "coming days and weeks" the US and France would "intensify our strikes against [Isis] . . . to make clear there is no safe haven for these terrorists".
During what White House officials described as a "constructive" meeting with President Vladimir Putin at the G20 talks, Mr Obama attempted to overcome differences with the Russian leader regarding Syria and agree ways to fight Isis.
Marco Rubio, one of the main [US presidential]candidates, said: "We're going to have to conduct an increased number of special operations attacks, targeting Isis leadership and revealing that they are not invincible."
Meanwhile, David Cameron, the British prime minister, signalled renewed determination to secure a mandate from parliament for strikes in Syria. "It's become even more clear that our safety and security depends on degrading and ultimately destroying Isil [Isis], whether it's in Iraq or Syria," he said. Merkel Increasingly Isolated Chancellor Merkel and EU president Jean-Claude Juncker are increasingly isolated with their open arms refugee policy. Merkel typically blows with the wind of public sentiment, but this time she has not. Before the attack, German finance minister called Merkel "Careless". I accurately responded " Merkel is Reckless, Not Careless". And now Markus Söder, the Bavarian finance minister in Merkel's sister CDU party, threatened to secure its borders if Merkel wouldn't. Meanwhile, Obama seeking common ground with Putin is a welcome event. Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
| ISIS Claims "Only Beginning of Storm"; Poland Backs Out of Refugee Agreement, Says It's a "Great Mistake"; Paris Changes Everything Posted: 15 Nov 2015 09:33 AM PST ISIS Claims Only The BeginningLots of fresh details this morning on the terror in Paris. The First Attacker Identified. France could extend its state of emergency beyond 12 days, the prime minister has said, as officials identified one of the Paris terror attackers as Omar Ismael Mostefai, a 29-year-old Frenchman of Algerian origin, who had been flagged for links to Islamist radicalism.
Manuel Valls said the state of emergency, which gives sweeping investigating powers to police, could be extended. This would require a vote in parliament.
He said France would extend its action in Syria in the coming days to "hit, annihilate Daesh", the name French officials use to describe Isis. He said France's strategy in Syria would be debated in parliament in eight days time.
A Syrian passport — confirmed as being used in Greece last month — was found near one of the attackers close to France's national stadium where three explosions occurred.
Isis issued a statement on Saturday saying "this is only the beginning of the storm" after French president François Hollande blamed the bloody attacks on the organisation in a televised address.
French interior minister Bernard Cazeneuve has laid out new security measures as part of the national state of emergency: police will be allowed to restrict circulation in some areas, perform house searches more easily, and shut down businesses such as concert halls and bars. Demonstrations will not be authorised in Paris until Thursday and security at railway stations and airports will be reinforced.
Events in Paris are unlikely to make the chance of a peaceful solution in Syria any easier, however, and are instead likely to play into the hands of hawks keen to ramp up military action and foreign supporters of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. Washington and its allies say Mr Assad's brutality and connivance created Isis. ISIS a US/UK CreationThe idea that Assad's brutality created ISIS is absurd. ISIS arose in the wake of the US taking out Saddam Hussein for no good reason. Note that UK Prime Minister Tony Blair Apologized for Creation of ISIS. A bit of honesty and self-assessment from the US would be a welcome event. But don't expect that to happen. The US never admits anything, but instead keeps making the same mistakes over and over again. Syrian Passport a Fake ZeroHedge has detailed coverage of the Syrian passport issue in The False Flag Link: Passport "Found" Next To Suicide Bomber Was "Definitely A Forgery". ZeroHedge posted a comic with these comments "The following cartoon best captures the idiocy of anyone actually believing a suicide bomber would have brought their actual passport to what they knew would be their last act on earth. Is bringing your own passport to an event that will be your last, really that crucial, especially when the passport is such a critical smoking gun?" Well, yes, if the goal was to have the passport found. The issue here is not whether the passport was a fake, but rather if it was the method of entry for the terrorists. ISIS can spread more fear by purposely leaving such a passport. I can easily see why they would want to leave their passport. Whether or not that passport provided entry to a terrorist remains to be seen. ISIS stated it would use Syrian passports to infiltrate EU countries. That threat is certainly credible, isn't it? Great Mistake Unsurprisingly, Paris Attacks Spur Fresh Calls for New EU Border Controls. Tensions are particularly fraught in Germany, where Chancellor Angela Merkel is already under fire from within her own centre-right grouping for her open stance on immigration.
Markus Söder, the Bavarian finance minister and a member of Ms Merkel's CSU sister party, on Sunday called for more checks on the German border and said his southern border region would take matters into its own hands if Berlin did not do more.
"Paris changes everything," Mr Söder told the Welt am Sonntag newspaper. If Germany cannot secure its borders . . . then Bavaria can take on this task".
Horst Seehofer, the Bavarian prime minister, on Sunday called for federal police to impose controls on all border crossings with Austria.
Political leaders in Poland and Slovakia warned that the influx of migrants into Europe posed security risks, with the incoming rightwing government in Warsaw insisting it was no longer willing to accept refugees under a recently agreed EU policy to relocate some of the thousands of migrants arriving in Greece and Italy across the bloc.
"Everyone must now assess how great a mistake is to try to settle a large Muslim immigrant community in Poland," said Antoni Macierewicz, defence minister in the incoming Law and Justice party government. Yes, mistakes have been made. Serious mistakes. EU president, Jean-Claude Juncker still does not see them. On Sunday, Juncker rebuked those attempting to use the attacks to change EU policy as populists who are improperly equating asylum-seekers with outlaws. What a fool. Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
| Hindsight Not Twenty-Twenty Posted: 15 Nov 2015 12:49 AM PST In an opinion piece on MarketWatch, writer Steve Goldstein says Paris Attacks Show U.S. Should Reverse Policy on Syria's Assad. Bashar al-Assad is a vile and murderous dictator. We should embrace him.
That's an alternative that should be on the table in the wake of the attacks on Paris apparently committed by the Islamic State.
There may well have a been a time for a credible, back-an-Assad-alternative strategy in Syria, but years of dithering and an unwillingness to provide even air support by the White House has taken that off the table.
Yes, it will be revolting to embrace Assad — and his patron, Vladimir Putin. But it's better to cozy up to the fascists who don't want to kill you than the fascists who do. Give Credit Where Credit Is DueI give zero credit to after-the-fact quarterbacking by Steve Goldstein. I do give credit to the tiny percentage of us who noted up-front how insane it was to remove Saddam Hussein. And in regards to Syria, those thinking properly never backed support for the alleged "moderate" Al Qaeda rebels seeking to overthrow Assad. Negative Credit The best Goldstein can come up with is " There may well have a been a time for a credible, back-an-Assad-alternative strategy in Syria ..." Quite frankly, there was NEVER a credible time to overthrow Assad. There was NEVER a credible time to militarily take out Saddam Hussein. Johnny-come-latelys like Goldstein are like those rooting for policy A then taking an "I told you so" stance when it became clear policy B was correct. Goldstein gets zero credit. The sad thing is he is better than the last two US presidents, one Republican and one Democrat, who get negative credit. Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
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