marți, 26 octombrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Thanks to Fed, Bubble Builds in Junk Bonds; We Know How Bubbles End

Posted: 26 Oct 2010 12:34 PM PDT

The Fed's misguided policies have not done a thing for small businesses, the unemployment rate, or the real economy in general but they have induced a mad dash for yield in junk bonds, easily in a bubble state right now.

Byran Keogh writing for Bloomberg says Fed-Induced Rally Makes Riskiest Debt Priciest
The lowest-rated junk bonds are the most expensive corporate debt following a Federal Reserve- induced rally in high-risk assets, adding to concern fixed- income securities are overvalued.

The extra yield investors demand to hold global bonds rated CCC or lower instead of government debt is about 10.1 percentage points, or 3.4 percentage points narrower than the average over the past 12 years, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data. Debt with B ratings is the only other part of the market trading tighter than its historical average.

The rally in the lowest-rated company bonds has sparked a surge in issuance. MGM Resorts International, the biggest casino operator on the Las Vegas Strip, Energy Future Holdings Corp. and other companies have sold $6.5 billion of bonds this month rated CCC+ or lower by Standard & Poor's or Caa1 or lower by Moody's Investors Service, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Goldman Sachs plans to sell $1.3 billion of 50-year debt at a 6.125 percent yield as soon as today, according to a person familiar with the transaction. The offering may include bonds with a face value of $25 that can't be called for five years, the person said.

The cost of protecting bonds from default in the U.S. held near the lowest level since May. The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index, which investors use to hedge against losses on corporate debt or to speculate on creditworthiness, increased 0.1 basis point to a mid-price of 93.5 basis points as of 12:21 p.m. in New York, according to index administrator Markit Group Ltd.

Goldman Sachs said bonds rated CCC+ and lower by S&P or Caa1 by Moody's were "expensive" given expectations for economic growth, and recommended clients buy higher-ranked company bonds instead. John Lipsky, the No. 2 official at the International Monetary Fund, said last month that global economic growth in the second half of the year will fall short of the fund's forecast of 3.75 percent on an annualized basis.

"You don't want to stand in the way of the search for yield," said Alberto Gallo, a global credit strategist at Goldman Sachs in New York. "But on the other hand it is a very volatile part of the market. And it can be particularly sensitive to a further slowdown in the economy."

Yields on U.S. investment-grade debt fell to a record low of 3.55 percent this month, the lowest borrowing cost on record in data going back to October 1986, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data. For CCC bonds and lower, yields dropped to 11.63 percent yesterday, the lowest level since November 2007, the data show.
We Know How Bubbles End

As long as there is a strong bid for junk, the stock market is unlikely to crack hard. Yet, we know how bubbles end.

The Greenspan Fed ignored the dot-com bubble, even encouraged it because of misguided Y2K fears and belief in productivity miracles. When that bubble burst, the Fed promptly embarked on creating a second, far bigger bubble in housing and debt.

Now the Fed is actively promoting still more bubbles as a solution to god knows what, since the Fed's policies are not helping the real economy one iota.

In fact, the Fed's policies are helping neither the real nor unreal economies unless you consider creating another opportunity for Goldman Sachs and select hedge funds to short at the opportune time, appropriate "help".

Fed Uncertainty Principle in Action

Long-time readers will quickly spot the Fed's actions as Fed Uncertainty Principle Corollary Number Three

Don't expect the Fed to learn from past mistakes. Instead, expect the Fed to repeat them with bigger and bigger doses of exactly what created the initial problem.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Economic Stimulus on Whiteboard; Good News on the Political Front in WA6

Posted: 26 Oct 2010 11:14 AM PDT

This is a political post but a video clip from Dough Cloud also shows rather well how Congress works.



In addition to the above video, I have good news to report in the campaign front. Doug Cloud, a Ron Paul type candidate, has pulled into the lead in his race for his race in Washington District 6.

Doug writes ...
Dear Mish,

I have not updated you on our campaign for some time. We have some very good news! The most recent poll on my race for Congress in Washington's Sixth District shows me leading by 48% to 44%. This poll was completed on Thursday, Oct. 21. Our race is now very much in play.

The incumbent is ensnared in a variety of influence peddling and corruption scandals involving earmarks for political sponsors, friends and family.

There is no question in my mind that we will see a historical turning of the page this election, with dozens of incumbents being removed from office. My race is one where a long time incumbent who has done nothing but vote the big government party line for all of his 34 years in Congress is in serious trouble, precisely because of his votes in favor of TARP, the various bailouts, and his vote for Obamacare.

Please, alert your readers to our race and the real possibility that another long time incumbent will finally bite the dust of history.

Doug Cloud
Race Washington Overlooked

The National Review asks Could There Be One More Competitive House Race in Washington, Completely Overlooked?
Congressman Norm Dicks: 17-term incumbent Democrat in Washington. Chairman of the House Interior and Environment Appropriations Subcommittee. Represents a D+5 district that includes parts of Tacoma and Bremerton and Port Angeles. Obama carried 57 percent of the vote; Dicks usually wins with 60some percent of the vote and hit above 70 percent a few times.

Doug Cloud is deputy prosecutor of Kitsap County.

As of October 13, Dicks had more than $511,000 cash on hand.

Cloud has $2,909 cash on hand.

And yet, here is this poll, suggesting the race stands at Cloud 48 percent, Dicks 44 percent.

I don't think anyone has this district on their watch list…
They Do Now!

What To Do - How You Can Help

Just yesterday a reader with some money to contribute asked how to make the best use of it. My answer was to donate to campaigns now considered tossups. Since one poll is not necessarily accurate, certainly Doug Cloud's campaign is worthy as well.

Please see my endorsement Doug Cloud for Washington District 6 - Tacoma. The post contains information on how to volunteer time and money.

Battle for House and Senate

On a national level, Real Clear Politics shows an election map with all the tossup races in play in Battle for the House.

Here is a map depicting the Battle for the Senate

There are many candidates worthy of your support, and Doug Cloud is a standout.

It is not often one gets the chance to elect a Ron Paul type candidate against a corrupt long-term opponent on the take. Do not let these chances slip away.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


BofA, JPM get Texas Subpoenas; Class Action Suit Against BofA; "Pit Bull" vs. BofA in Mortgage BuyBack Battle

Posted: 26 Oct 2010 02:15 AM PDT

The mortgage mess gets more complicated every day. Here are a sampling of stories that shows how.

Bank of America, JPMorgan Get Texas Subpoenas on Foreclosures

Bloomberg reports Bank of America, JPMorgan Get Texas Subpoenas on Foreclosures
Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and seven other banks or loan servicers were subpoenaed by Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott for information about their foreclosure practices, a spokesman said.

"The state is subpoenaing information and documents," Jerry Strickland, the spokesman, said yesterday in an interview. He didn't elaborate. The state also subpoenaed Ally Financial Inc., CitiMortgage Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co

The Texas subpoenas followed letters sent by Abbott's office to 30 loan servicers on Oct. 4, asking them to halt foreclosures in the state pending a review of their practices.

Abbott asked banks then to identify employees who filed faulty affidavits or other documents in the state and identify foreclosures that used such documents. He also asked lenders and servicers to halt all sales of properties previously foreclosed upon and stop all evictions.

Twenty-six of those companies responded to the letters, according to a spreadsheet of answers sent yesterday by Strickland.
Class Action Filed Against Bank of America For Foreclosure Fraud

Law.Com reports Bank of America Sued in Class Action Over Flouting of Foreclosure Rules
Bank of America has been hit with a class action on behalf of homeowners seeking damages for alleged disregard of foreclosure process rules.

The suit, filed Wednesday in federal court in Newark, N.J., accuses Bank of America and two subsidiaries, LaSalle Bank and BAC Home Loans Servicing, of "an undisciplined rush to seize homes" through "pervasive and willful disregard of knowledge, facts and statutes."

Bank of America has filed foreclosure proceedings on many mortgages in New Jersey without holding the necessary rights as the mortgagee or assignee at the time of foreclosure, the suit says.

"Many thousands of foreclosures are plainly void under statute and settled New Jersey case law. Many borrowers never obtain statutorily required notices, and many foreclosure suits are filed entirely based in inaccurate recitations concerning ownership of the mortgage, the note, or the assignment," the suit says.

The suit was brought by Lawrence Friscia, head of a Newark firm that counsels distressed homeowners, and his associate, Jonathan Minkove, who say they've found that Bank of America regularly negotiates binding agreements to modify mortgage terms and then fails to honor the terms.
Fed's 'Pit Bull' Takes on Bank of America in BuyBack Battle

Bloomberg reports Fed's 'Pit Bull' Takes on Bank of America in BuyBack Battle

Kathy D. Patrick is a Houston lawyer who spends her Sundays teaching children about God. The rest of the week, according to one attorney who knows her, she can be "as frightening as a pit bull on steroids."

Her law firm, Gibbs & Bruns LLP, is a 30-lawyer outfit that says it specializes in "bet the company" litigation. This month, it reached a settlement with JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of Montreal stemming from an alleged fraud at a Canadian gold company. Earlier this year, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and UBS AG settled with the firm over the sale of $550 million in mortgage-backed securities. Patrick reached that settlement on behalf of her clients just two months after filing suit.

Patrick, 50, is "fearless and tenacious," said Dan Cogdell, a Houston criminal-defense lawyer who said she is capable of pit bull-like aggressiveness "if the need be." If she succeeds in getting Bank of America to settle, it may trigger more calls for buybacks in the $1.4 trillion market for so-called non-agency mortgage securities, which lack government backing.

Bank costs from repurchasing mortgages in such securities may total as much as $179.2 billion, including expenses related to suits against bond underwriters, Chris Gamaitoni, a Compass Point Research and Trading LLC analyst, estimated in August.
Bair Says Regulators Will Uncover More Flaws in Foreclosures

The understatement of the month award goes to Sheila Bair at the FDIC who says Regulators Will Uncover More Flaws in Foreclosures
Regulators are likely to discover more problems related to loan servicing by some of the biggest banks as they probe claims that documents were mishandled, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said.

"We are going to get into more and more problems with the issues that are surfacing now on servicing," Bair said today at a housing conference in Arlington, Virginia. Resulting litigation could "ultimately be very damaging to our housing markets if it ends up prolonging those foreclosures that are necessary and justified," she said. Bair didn't provide details on what other problems she thought might arise.

"Ultimately this problem will require some type of global solution," she said. "In developing that solution, I would suggest that all interested parties consider some type of triage on foreclosures" such as safe harbor relief for vacant properties or interest-rate reductions for borrowers.

Bair said she doesn't think congressional legislation will be needed to address the issue.
If you get the idea foreclosure fraud is going to trigger a tangled mess of lawsuits and countersuits, you have the right idea.

This can easily drag on for years unless (and perhaps even if) Congress gets involved.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog


Find the Question to your Yahoo Answers!

Posted: 25 Oct 2010 02:10 PM PDT

Posted by Martin81Vette

Have you considered using Yahoo Answers to try and drive some traffic to your website / blog? Yahoo Answers has become a very popular network for knowledge thirsty question askers and knowledge soaked answer-meisters, and they are all potential visitors for your site. This article aims to provide a detailed look at some tips / tricks for becoming the glowing Yahoo Answers guru you've always wanted to be!

I was inspired back in January by Nathan Libbeys excellent blog post about generating traffic using Yahoo Answers. After reading Nathan's post I registered with Yahoo Answers and started answering questions, mainly in the environment category, and I quickly became semi-obsessed with "Yahanswering" (Sounds Swedish!).

Now the key to using Yahoo Answers is to actually provide some meaningful answers. Yahoo awards points for answering questions and you get a bunch of points if someone picks your answer as the best;

  • Answer a question = 2 points
  • Log in to Yahoo! Answers Once daily = 1 point
  • Vote for an answer = 1 point
  • Get voted as "Best Answer" = 10 points

You get 100 points just for registering but the holy grail of Yahanswering is to reach 250 points, at that point you can actually include live links in your answers!

OK, we can assume you have registered, answered with some great answers and reached 250 points, let's explore a few ways to improve your chances of getting those prized "Best Answers" and boost your site traffic at the same time.

A great way to improve your climb up the Yahoo Answers leader board is to take a look at your site and find a great answer. Have you written an article or a blog post which was super informative, educational and unique? Chances are that if your article provides a great answer to a common problem then there will be some unanswered questions to match it!

Yahoo Answers has an "Advanced Search" feature which allows a question slaying web ninja to find suitable questions which will be a perfect match for his/her awesome answer;

Yahoo Answers Advanced Search Function

For example, my site has a great article about setting up a tumbling composter and there might be throngs of people on Yahoo Answers desperate to learn more about my tumbling composter!

This is where we can make the Advanced Search feature really work for us, for this example I have chose the keyword "compost" along with any one of the following "tumbler,tumbling,rotating,composting,bin";

Yahoo Answers Advanced Search Feature

You will also notice that I have selected to search only for a Keyword match in "Questions" and the Question Status of "Open Questions".

The all important final stage is to save this advanced search so that you can easily run it every time you log in to Yahoo Answers;

Save Your Advanced Search

And there you have it, a repeatable and highly focused search that will link you to people desperate to find the answers you already possess!

In my above example the results yielded a find straight away;

We've Struck Yahoo Answering Gold!

I can clearly see that "Donna" needs to read my awesome article about setting up a tumbler composter and I can now click on here question and provide that answer.

I wrote my reply to Donna and can now sit back with fingers crossed and hope that I get that elusive 10 points for a "Best Answer"

My Yahoo Answer Posted

Using techniques such as the saved Advanced Searches have built my Yahoo Answers portfolio into a veritable link farm. I have enjoyed the challenge of answering peoples questions and it's very rewarding to get that 10 point Best Answer from a happy question asker.

I have tracked my traffic direct from Yahoo Answers this year and it isn't huge but it's well worth the effort;

Tracking my Answerlytics

As you can see from my stats I've recently taken a break from Yahanswering, mainly to focus on writing articles like this one, but I plan to get my answering hat back on soon and keep climbing my way up that Yahoo Answers leaderboard.

So there you have it, you now have the tools and the knowledge to venture forth and become a Yahoo Answer grand master, let me know your experiences using the Advanced Search features and whether you have seen any spikes in traffic from some crafty Yahanswering!


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36 Billion Gallons of Biofuels and Cleaner Trucks, Vans and Buses

The White House Energy and Climate Agenda
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
 

The Week in Energy and Climate

Yesterday, the Department of Transportation (DOT) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced a proposal for the first national standards for greenhouse gas emissions and fuel efficiency for medium and heavy-duty trucks, vans, and buses. This step is a win for the environment, energy independence and our economy.

Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar approved the largest solar energy project ever to be built on U.S. public lands. When constructed, the Blythe Solar Power Project will produce up to 1,000 megawatts of solar power, or enough to power 300,000 – 750,000 homes.

On Thursday, Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack outlined the steps that the Department of Agriculture (USDA) is taking to reach a national goal of producing 36 billion gallons of biofuel a year in the United States by 2022, with 21 billion gallons coming from advanced biofuel production.

Learn more about other Obama Administration events in commemoration of National Energy Month, a national effort to underscore how energy is central to our national prosperity, security, and environmental well-being, here.

Highlights 

DOT, EPA Propose Nation's First-Ever Emissions, Fuel-Efficiency Standards for Trucks and Buses
October 25, 2010
Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood and Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lisa P. Jackson announce a proposal for the first national standards for greenhouse gas emissions and fuel efficiency for medium and heavy-duty trucks, vans, and buses.

Boosting Advanced Biofuel Production and Creating Jobs
October 22, 2010
Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack explains that the Administration's vision for rural America combines new technologies and new markets with better use of our natural resources -- more home grown biofuels and renewable energy.

A Discussion on Clean Energy in Missoula
October 22, 2010
White House Council on Environmental Quality Chair Nancy Sutley travels to Missoula, Montana, to discuss America's energy future at the 20th Annual Conference for the Society of Environmental Journalists.

Leading by Example: VA Funds Solar Energy Projects at Hospitals, Clinics, Cemeteries
October 22, 2010
The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) awards $78 million in contracts to build solar photovoltaic (PV) systems at VA facilities nationwide.

Iowa Conservation Partnerships
October 21, 2010
Jess Maher, Associate Director for Legislative Affairs at the White House Council on Environmental Quality, travels to Iowa to learn about partnership-based efforts to support natural resource conservation.

Building Stronger, Sustainable Communities Through Strategic Coordination
October 21, 2010
The Obama Administration announces a combined $742 million in grants and assistance to support the creation of more livable and sustainable communities across the country.

Empowering Defense Through Energy Security
October 18, 2010
The Department of Defense (DoD) hosts an Energy Security Forum as part of National Energy Awareness Month to discuss how the Department of Defense can turn energy use from a strategic and operational challenge to a key strength for the warfighter.

Blog Action Day: Protecting America’s Waters Today
October 15, 2010
As part Change.org's Blog Action Day, EPA Administrator Lisa P. Jackson reflects on the importance of protecting America's clean water supply.

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Michael Gray - Graywolf's SEO Blog

Michael Gray - Graywolf's SEO Blog


Creating and Using an SEO Editorial Calendar

Posted: 26 Oct 2010 07:30 AM PDT

Post image for Creating and Using an SEO Editorial Calendar

I’ve mentioned the benefits of having an editorial calendar several times on this blog, and Lisa has done an excellent job of explaining why you need an editorial calendar from a content production point of view; however, what I haven’t talked about is how to use an editorial calendar from an SEO perspective.

From an SEO perspective, an editorial calendar can has several points worth noting:

  • You need to produce, publish, and link build to new content at least 30-45 days before you can expect it to rank (unless its a QDF term)
  • You need to have a recycling strategy in place for old content
  • You need to maximize the value of previous social media campaigns and think about how you are going use current and upcoming ones.

While these strategies are important for every website, they are especially important for websites with seasonal content, like Halloween, the World Series, or new car models, as you only get a once-a-year opportunity to get it right.

Let’s say you have website that talks about cooking. You want to start cycling links to your existing Halloween content 30-45 days before the peak searching time. I prefer to put those links on the homepage for maximum effect (see making your homepage more dynamic). You can determine when the peak searching time is by using tools like Google Trends and Google insights

Search Volume for Halloween Cupcakes

Search Volume for Halloween cupcakes

Be sure to use Google insights for keyword research and post ideas (see Four Ways Bloggers can Use Google Insights)

Keyword Ideas From Google Insights

If you can, try to do some natural linkbuilding or scraper link building in conjunction with moving the links to the home page. If you are creating new content, you’ll need to decide if it’s evergreen or social. If it’s evergreen, you’ll need to push it out sooner if you want it to rank; if its social, you’ll need to wait till the event is about 7-10 days out from peak search time, or the time when it’s front of mind. For example, “Extreme Valentine’s Day Gifts” will work fine if you publish it on February 5th. If you publish it on December 15th, it will probably fail miserably.

If you have any link bait from the previous year, my suggestion is not to 301 redirect the URL to a more commercial page. Instead, leave the content in place, and link to commercial pages, or revise the content, making it more commercially oriented. Don’t be afraid to repeat some of your past successes year after year, just give them a new wrinkle. For example, Cosmopolitan Magazine has been putting out “how to have better sex” and “look great naked” articles every few months since it hit the newsstands in the 1970′s. Just remember to give it a fresh approach and new content.

If you have content that changes/updates every year, you have two choices: you can go with a living URL approach or you can take an archive approach. The archive approach goes something like this: every year, Ford puts out a new mustang, so the URL for the current year should be something like this:

example.com/ford/mustang/

When the 2011 comes out, create a new URL and move the existing content to it. The URL should be something like this:

example.com/ford/mustang/2010/

Then put the 2011 model information on:

example.com/ford/mustang/

Your old page hopefully has links and traffic. If you redirect it, you are sacrificing it for no good reason. By shifting the content but keeping the URLs permanent, you maximize what you already have.

So what are the takeaways from this post:

  • Put links to existing content on the home page or other frequently crawled pages 30-45 days before peak search volume days
  • Use Google trends or Google insights to determine peak search volume days
  • Rewrite or interlink existing social media pages to maximize their value
  • Schedule new social media on time that coincide with maximum search volume
  • Use a living URL or archive strategy so you don’t sacrifice any existing link equity

Creative Commons License photo credit: Jorge-11

This post originally came from Michael Gray who is an SEO Consultant. Be sure not to miss the Thesis WordPress Theme review.

Creating and Using an SEO Editorial Calendar

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Daily Snapshot: Ask Axe

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
 

Ask Axe: Today at 1 p.m. EDT

David Axelrod, Senior Advisor to the President, is answering your questions in a live video chat on WhiteHouse.gov today at 1:00 p.m. EDT. Axelrod has been with the President in the White House since Day One and knows his perspective on major policy issues across the board. Ask Axe your questions about the economy, health care, energy -- or whatever else is on your mind.

Submit your question and watch live.

Photo of the Day

Carved pumpkins depicting President Barack Obama, Abraham Lincoln, and the White House sit on a stone wall next door to where the President was attending a dinner reception in Providence, Rhode Island, Oct. 25, 2010. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Daylight Time 

9:45 AM: The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing

10:15 AM: The President receives the Economic Daily Briefing

10:45 AM: The President meets with senior advisors

12:45 PM: The Vice President attends an event for Representative Tim Bishop

1:00 PM: Briefing by Press Secretary Robert Gibbs WhiteHouse.gov/live

1:00 PM: Tuesday Talk with David Axelrod WhiteHouse.gov/live

4:30 PM: The President meets with Secretary of Defense Gates

5:45 PM: The Vice President attends an event for Senator Kirsten Gillibrand

WhiteHouse.gov/live  Indicates Events that will be livestreamed on WhiteHouse.gov/live.

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog

President Obama in Rhode Island: "When You Vote Against Small Business Tax Relief..."
The President tours American Cord & Webbing in Woonsocket, Rhode Island, explaining how the small business will benefit from the Small Business Jobs Act that was blocked for months by Republicans in Congress.

Eliminating Lifetime Limits Helps Paul Focus on Care
Paul was born with hemophilia, so his experience with health insurance has been a “lifelong endeavor.” Provisions in the Affordable Care Act eliminating lifetime limits make keeping coverage easier for Paul.

DOT, EPA Propose Nation's First-Ever Emissions, Fuel-Efficiency Standards for Trucks and Buses
Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood and Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lisa P. Jackson announce a proposal for the first national standards for greenhouse gas emissions and fuel efficiency for medium and heavy-duty trucks, vans, and buses.

Get Updates

Sign Up for the Daily Snapshot

Stay Connected

 
 
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