| Shopping Patterns Show When the Government Checks Come In Posted: 23 Sep 2010 08:43 PM PDT With every passing month, more and more people live paycheck to paycheck. The proof is easy to find. Just start Watching Wal-Mart at Midnight[Said] Bill Simon, CEO of Wal-Mart's U.S. business, at a Goldman Sachs conference last week, on behavior at a Walmart store around midnight at the end of a month:
"The paycheck cycle we've talked about before remains extreme. It is our responsibility to figure out how to sell in that environment, adjusting pack sizes, large pack at sizes the beginning of the month, small pack sizes at the end of the month. And to figure out how to deal with what is an ever-increasing amount of transactions being paid for with government assistance.
"And you need not go further than one of our stores on midnight at the end of the month. And it's real interesting to watch, about 11 p.m., customers start to come in and shop, fill their grocery basket with basic items, baby formula, milk, bread, eggs,and continue to shop and mill about the store until midnight, when electronic — government electronic benefits cards get activated and then the checkout starts and occurs. And our sales for those first few hours on the first of the month are substantially and significantly higher.
"And if you really think about it, the only reason somebody gets out in the middle of the night and buys baby formula is that they need it, and they've been waiting for it. Otherwise, we are open 24 hours — come at 5 a.m., come at 7 a.m., come at 10 a.m. But if you are there at midnight, you are there for a reason." Underwear Economics Wall Street Journal write Al Lewis mentioned the above in Underwear EconomicsThere is no Santa Claus. The next best thing is Wal-Mart. And Wal-Mart says we're all getting underwear for Christmas.
OK, so maybe some children will still receive their annual allotments of cheap electronic games and plastic toys.
"But for all you adults out there, I think you should plan on socks and underwear for Christmas," said Bill Simon, CEO of Wal-Mart's U.S. business, at a Goldman Sachs conference last week. "Because that's going to be what you are going to get -- at least from me."
Perhaps underwear for Christmas isn't such a bad idea.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan once said he viewed underwear sales as an economic indicator. Cost-cutting consumers will wear their old undies longer, the theory goes. There is much more in the "underwear" article including snips contained in "Watching Wal-Mart" Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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| Ass Backwards: Senate to Shelve Bush Tax Cuts for Individuals; House to Pass Small Business Tax Cuts Posted: 23 Sep 2010 10:45 AM PDT If ever you want to see tax policies that are ass backwards, look no further than two Congressional tax bills, one should pass but may not even get a vote, the other is seriously misguided but will pass anyway. Senate Democrats Ready To Shelve Tax Cut VoteTPM reports Senate Dems Ready To Shelve Tax Cut VoteA senior Senate Democratic aide told TPM today there won't be a vote on extending the Bush tax cuts in the upper chamber before the November election, a blow to party leaders and President Obama who believed this would have been a winning issue.
"Absent a stunning turn of events, we're not going to do tax cuts before the election," the aide told TPM.
"We have a winning message now, why muddy it up with a failed vote, because, of course, Republicans are going to block everything," the aide said.
Aides for two senators in tough bids have suggested they would take the plunge and vote before the election, but they'd prefer to vote if it means the tax cuts extension could actually be passed. And that's not counting the conservative Democrats who disagree with the majority of the caucus about where the threshold should be -- and lean toward a higher than $250,000 in income definition of the middle class. Politics as UsualThe irony is both parties are blaming each other and both parties are to blame. Certainly the Democrats should have enough votes to pass something given they have a majority. I highly doubt the Republicans would filibuster a tax cut proposal this close to election. However, Democrats might not have the votes because of defections. Senate leaders fear those defections, and do not want to risk Democrats being blamed. Another, perhaps more likely alternative is that Democrats believe a "winning message" (blaming Republicans) is better than "winning action". Either way, taxpayers will suffer. Contrary to the what the Democratic fools believe, I think people will blame incumbents not Republicans for failure to pass something. Thus, Republicans have every incentive to do the wrong thing, short of a filibuster. The bottom line is the same. Nothing gets done, and both parties are to blame. Year End Cliff Gamble on 2% of GDPI did not think it would come to this. I was nearly certain there would be a vote and something would pass. It still may. But if TPM is correct, it's now likely this vote is dead. Zero Hedge provides some insights into what this all means in The Goverment's "Year End Cliff" Gamble On 2% Of GDP And 10% Of Disposable IncomeWith mid-term elections a month and a half away, and the expiration of the Bush tax cuts approaching at a rapid pace, the stakes for Obama's dwindling administration on the tax cut extension issue loom. And as Goldman's Alec Phillips demonstrates, the costs of either decision are huge: on one hand, should Obama go ahead and relent to extending all the tax cuts, he will almost guaranteed not be around for a second term due to the avalanche of disappointment in his electorate as he relents on this key promise.
On the other hand, should he and the republicans be unable to find a compromise and all tax cuts expire, the impact to the economy could be so vast that America's breezy depression will become a full blown hurricane, possibly worse than anything the nation has ever seen.
Phillips' succinct summary of the downside case is as follows: "Letting all of these provisions expire would subtract nearly 10 percentage points from annualized disposable income growth in Q1 2011, which could translate into a nearly 2 percentage point decline in final demand and nearly that large a drag on GDP in the first half of 2011."
And it is not just the Bush cuts that are at steak: the year end "cliff" also sees the expiration of the "Making Work Pay" (MWP) payroll tax credit enacted in ARRA, and the relief from the alternative minimum tax (AMT). One thing is certain: if a stalemate prevails, GDP for H1 of 2011 will be wildly negative.
Scoring Points More Important than Doing the Right ThingI cannot find a link for that quote by Goldman's Alec Phillips, but I certainly concur that consumer spending will take a big hit if something does not pass. A decline in consumer spending in turn will negatively affect GDP. This just goes to show you that scoring points takes precedence over actually doing something useful. The impacts of this particular point scoring episode may be severe. Small Business Non-BoostInquiring minds are reading Congress Set to Approve Bill Aimed at Boosting Small BusinessesThe U.S. Congress is poised to give final approval to legislation aimed at boosting lending to small businesses in what is likely the Democrats' final jobs bill before the Nov. 2 elections.
The House is slated to vote today on a measure offering a mix of tax cuts, loans and revived stimulus provisions aimed at easing the flow of credit and signaling voters, who head to the polls in six weeks, that Democrats are trying to boost the economy. Passage would send the bill, which was approved by the Senate last week, to President Barack Obama for his signature.
Economist Alan Blinder, a former Federal Reserve vice chairman, said many small businesses have had "extreme" difficulty getting loans though he said poor sales remain their biggest problem.
"The thing that drives small businesses over and above everything else is the ability to sell their product," he said.
The bill had been held up for months by Senate Republicans who objected to provisions setting up a $30 billion program in which the Treasury Department would buy preferred shares in community banks, with participants paying the government dividends on a sliding scale depending on how much they increase lending. Dividends could be as low as 1 percent. Republicans said the plan amounted to little more than a scaled-down facsimile of the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
For all the controversy over the provisions, it's far from certain banks will participate in the program, said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Analytics. Banks will probably be reluctant to take the government's money, he said, after seeing TARP recipients hit with retroactive executive-compensation limits amid a public outcry over tax dollars going to institutions paying million-dollar salaries.
"I'm skeptical that banks will actually take the government up on their offer," said Zandi. "I think the memory of TARP will be in the minds of those lending institutions and they'll be reluctant to use the capital."
Other provisions would provide $56 billion in tax cuts over the next 12 months, with the bulk coming through "bonus depreciation" that allows companies to more quickly write off the cost of purchases. The tax cut would amount to $12 billion over 10 years, the yardstick used by Congress to determine how much bills cost, in part because businesses taking bigger deductions now couldn't claim them in the future, which would increase projected tax revenue in subsequent years.
Buying Preferred Shares Amazing Convoluted Buying preferred shares of banks to get them to lend is amazingly convoluted. Banks need to decide business risks of lending and make those decision on risk, not on government prodding. The only possible saving grace for such monstrous stupidity is that Zandi is likely correct when he says banks may not take the offer in memory of TARP. Nonetheless, this is yet another step down the path of more seriously misguided government intervention. Republicans were correct to object to this foolishness. Tax Credits for Capital Spending Make Little SenseGiven the #1 problem facing small corporation is lack of customers, it makes little sense to entice businesses to increase capacity. Payroll tax credits suffer the same flaw. Please see my response to both those ideas in Response to Nouriel Roubini on "America Needs a Payroll Tax Cut"Indeed, I received this email from the president of a small corporation just yesterday. Dear Mish:
I agree with your analysis of the statements by Roubini re: payroll taxes. As a business owner with four employees, I'd welcome them; however, such breaks would not entice me to hire another employee.
Have a good day. I am quite certain that sentiment represents the vast majority of small business owners. The one thing small business owners need is customers. It's hard to get more customers when government is going to start taking a bigger bite out of everyone's pay check. This is further proof that Congress has those bills ass backwards. But hey, who cares if the economy goes to hell. After all, scoring political points is far more important! Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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| Janet Tavakoli on the "Myth of the Immoral Debtor"; An email from a Charlie Munger student; "Business as Usual" Posted: 23 Sep 2010 01:11 AM PDT Emails continue to fly in regarding Amazing Arrogance. I would like to share a few of them including a second email from Janet Tavakoli regarding bankers' sense of entitlement and " the myth of the immoral debtor", a term Tavakoli attributes to Elizabeth Warren. From Janet Tavakoli:Hello Mish,
Bankers have an enormous, unjustified, sense of entitlement. These people work for failed institutions, yet they feel they are entitled to bonuses that far exceed those of bankers and investment bankers of one or two decades ago.
Note that Berkshire Hathaway owns a big chunk of Wells Fargo, which bought Wachovia, which in turn bought Golden West, the very seat of a lot of fraudulent lending.
Of course, we bailed out Wells Fargo and relaxed accounting rules, so no one knows the true size of the hole in that balance sheet. Charles Munger's remarks are all the more bizarre in this context.
Here in Illinois, people were lied to and deceived with phony docs. Among many other frauds, people would show up at a closing for a fixed rate loan and be presented with docs for an option ARM. All sorts of variations occurred.
Lisa Madigan, the Illinois Attorney General was first to file the suit against Countrywide, and beat California by minutes. Countrywide settled for $8+ billion on the combined suits, but that was way too low. Madigan publicly stated: "Borrowers didn't break the law; Countrywide broke the law."
Of course, some borrowers committed fraud, overreached, or got in over their heads, and there are certainly cases of irresponsibility. However, the reality of the mortgage lending market is that it was rife with fraud by mortgage lenders--from even before the first huge Ameriquest fraud.
I was on CNBC a few months ago and Kudlow, Santelli, and others shouted me down when I brought up predatory lending. Columbia Journalism Review and others took CNBC to task. Widespread predatory lending is well documented. This isn't a matter of opinion, it's a matter of fact.
You'd think Munger had been living under a rock. Yet, he hasn't been, and I believe he knows better. Buffett knows better, too. Unfortunately, instead of using their positions to tell the truth, they are using their positions to propagate what Elizabeth Warren calls "the myth of the immoral debtor."
I'm no bleeding heart; I'm all about the cash flows.
Investment banks knew the cash flows from these loans wouldn't be there, but they went ahead anyway. Thus, they are responsible for widespread securities fraud. To keep it going, they created more complex securitizations and got more people involved to cover up the mounting losses that were coming down the pike. This was all known and knowable in advance.
I didn't "forsee" anything. I have no psychic ability. I'm not prescient. I am, however, an analyst, and I know my stuff. So did they. It was fraud.
So, just what sort of "civilization" is Munger trying to preserve?
Warren Buffett has made statements that he doesn't see the purpose of going after people. That's ridiculous.
I am in complete agreement with William K. Black that thorough investigations are long overdue. The crimes aren't in doubt, but one has to go through the arduous task of collecting evidence even though delays have made the trail cold. That was deliberate.
Best,
Janet University Student Chime InHere is Email from a University of Michigan student who heard the speech in person. Alex writes ... Hey Mish
I am a University of Michigan student and I was present for Charlie Munger's talk on campus. You probably wouldn't have been able to sit through the whole thing without screaming obscenities. There was question asked about gold and Charlie said he would never own it. There was also a question about derivatives and Charlie insulted that person as well. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Berkshire purchase a large quantity of silver below $5? Didn't Berkshire get involved in the derivatives market?
Thanks
Alex Charlie Munger Student Chimes InHere is an Email from a Charlie Munger student and long time shareholder of Berkshire Hathaway. Hello Mish,
As a regular reader of your column, long time shareholder of Berkshire Hathaway, and Charlie Munger student, I was saddened to read Munger's remarks. While I am never surprised by his hubris - attend a Wesco shareholder meeting and you will see how the man holds court - I am shocked that he would suggest that those who did not receive bailout money to suck it up.
While I knew that Buffett was a hypocrite, I never expected it from Munger who states that he lived on principles. I sold all my Berkshire shares today.
Keep up the great work, you are one of the few sound voices left out there.
"S" Yet Another Jaded Former Berkshire Shareholder and FanFrom "JL", an asset manager who sold on the news ... Dear Mr. Buffett:
I suppose if one lives long enough, they eventually see all their living, revered heroes let them down in some way. Some succeed in this fashion far more than others. And man let me say this, "you blew me away."
After over a decade of being a "naive" Berkshire "partner/shareholder" who always defended you, I have sold every single share I ever owned as I sadly witnessed you violate far too many of your own guidelines in the Berkshire Owner's Manual. This was a tiny dollar amount by your standards, but at one time more than 50% of my family's net worth.
You may be interested in knowing more details as to why I sold my shares, as the majority of letters that continue to pour in to Kiewit Plaza surely share a similar tone to this one. You and Charlie "Fear" Munger continue to misrepresent history, and that is why the public's rage at you and at Wall Street grows with every passing day. And that level of anger will remain elevated and growing and directed at the miscreants known as the "bailout sympathizers" for as long as the unemployment rate does. We could and should have wiped out the "too big to fail" equity holders before we wiped out the tax payer. But that would have meant Berkshire's precious book value would have taken a major hit, and so you used up all of a billionaire's political capital and traded the ethics and morals you seemingly worked a lifetime to build, to prevent that from happening. Was that trade a good one?
And I have a big problem with that sir. When a select group of super-wealthy, elite, politically connected insiders are allowed to transgress a nation's various moral, securities, and bankruptcy laws under the falsely dramatized "emergency" threat and guise of an Economic Pearl Harbor or a new Adolph Hitler (have you scolded FearMunger yet for his Antoinette moment to the University of Michigan kids?) to deplete its national treasury, and gets away with it....well then it is time for the "great unwashed" to be very concerned. And the guilty bailout offenders are very right to be worried of the social chaos that FearMunger warns us about, if WE are unable to "suck it up and cope!"
In perpetrating the greatest illegal transfer of wealth in the history of the world, you have lowered the capitalistic bar to an all-time historic low. This much I know: Despite your charitable efforts and investing acumen, history will not be kind to you for these repugnant actions, and your true legacy is:THE FATHER OF ALL MORAL HAZARD AND THE U.S. ZOMBIE ECONOMY
You will probably not be around to see it devolve into this state first hand, but I can assure you that as the lead architect of the immoral bailouts, you have sent me and my kids and the rest of us right into SQUANDERVILLE hell. Shame on your bailouts, shame on you for remaining silent while we failed in crafting effective financial reform, and shame on your world-class hypocrisy. There is so much more to life than the compounded annual growth rate of your book value!
Yet Another Jaded Former Berkshire Shareholder and Fan,
"JL" That was the exact letter "JL", an asset manager sent to Warren Buffett. Let Them Eat CakeI received numerous Emails similar to the following Hello Mish,
Great job. Has Charlie Munger become this generation's Marie Antoinette? Let them eat cake!
Steve Reader from Canada Chimes in on NarcissismHi Mish:
I have to say that your article, Amazing Arrogance, really hit a chord today.
Your article that features the appalling statements of Mr. Munger that are equally insensitive as the "We care about the small people" statements from Tony Hayward, former CEO of BP.
My wife & I have been doing research on Narcissism. It is a fascinating area to explore and I believe most people who seek and rise to a position of power demonstrate many of its characteristics.
Here's a link to a site that features an author, Sam Vaknin - a narcissist, who has written a book detailing his observations: http://www.healthyplace.com/personality-disorders/malignant-self-love/narcissism-narcissistic-personality-disorder-npd/menu-id-1469/
His observations are chilling to read. There are several links to his articles at the bottom of the page on this link.
All the best.
Chris - North of Toronto God's WorkReader "Tin Hat" sends a list of notable quotes: - Goldman Sachs' CEO Loyd Blankfein says "We're doing God's work."
- BP's chairman says "We care about the small people."
- Lord Griffiths, vice-chairman of Goldman Sachs International, says the British public should "tolerate the inequality as a way to achieve greater prosperity for all".
- Now Munger thinks we should "suck it up and cope." And "thank god" for the bailouts.
Tin Hat quips "Tell me Munger, which god might that be? The Man Upstairs, Lloyd Blankfein or Lucifer?"Ryan Skene, Commercial Account ManagerRyan Skene, a Commercial Account Manager for HSBC who supported Munger ( HSBC Commercial Account Manager responds to "Amazing Arrogance") had second thoughts. Ryan sent a second somewhat apologetic email saying "perhaps a more measured response from myself would have been appropriate." He went on to say .... I do not think it fair that US bank's had to be bailed out at the expense of the US taxpayer. Clearly, the most fair approach would have been for banks to have made loans that they could be reasonably assured would be paid back. Obviously, that's not what they did. And truly, some banks and their executives did pay pretty dearly for their mistakes. Dick Fuld may still be a millionaire, but I doubt greatly what remains of his networth is much consolation for the shame he must feel ever morning when he looks in the mirror.
Still, I am entirely glad that the bailouts happened. I saw first hand the fear that gripped bank executives as they could not be sure which of their counterparts were good credits and which were not ... and the fear from business owners, many of them what you would consider small, that the credit they rely on to operate their businesses had dried up. We were on the precipice of a total meltdown. The bailout indirectly probably did save my job. But it also saved the job's of the welders, the machinists, the accounts payable clerks, the janitors, and the sale people that work for everyone of my clients ... all of whom would have been faced with tough decisions had confidence not been restored in the system.
Bank Bailout vs. Meltdown of Civilization. While bailing out the bank's was evil in a sense, for me it was the much lesser evil of the two. Meltdown MythFor starters, Fuld should be facing criminal charges not facing a mirror with his millions, guilty conscious or not. More importantly, there would not have been "a meltdown of modern civilization" had we closed the banks. Life would have gone on, just as it did after Lehman went to zero. Had the banks gone under, but the deposits insured, life would be closer to normal right now. The bad debts would have been eliminated, the equity holders wiped out, and the banks could have been recapitalized and lending again. Instead, banks are still saddled with bad loans, the Fed continues to act criminally to help banks hide those bad loans, taxpayers are on the hook for more toxic debts of banks, and taxpayers are also on the hook for "unlimited Fannie Mae losses". Bring Out The Criminal IndictmentsPray tell, where is the action on this list? April 29, 2010: Barofsky Threatens Criminal Charges in AIG Coverup, Goldman Sachs Abacus Deal, TARP Insider Trading; New York Fed ImplicatedApril 16, 2010: Rant of the Day: No Ethics, No Fiduciary Responsibility, No Separation of Duty; Complete Ethics Overhaul NeededMarch 2, 2010: Geithner's Illegal Money-Laundering Scheme Exposed; Harry Markopolos Says "Don't Trust Your Government"January 31, 2010: 77 Fraud, Money Laundering, Insider Trading, and Tax Evasion Investigations Underway Regarding TARPJanuary 28, 2010: Secret Deals Involving No One; AIG Coverup Conspiracy UnravelsJanuary 26, 2010: Questions Geithner Cannot EscapeJanuary 07, 2010: Time To Indict Geithner For Securities FraudOctober 20, 2009: Bernanke Guilty of Coercion and Market ManipulationJuly 17, 2009: Paulson Admits Coercion; Where are the Indictments?June 26, 2009: Bernanke Suffers From Selective Memory Loss; Paulson Calls Bank of America "Turd in the Punchbowl"April 24, 2009: Let the Criminal Indictments Begin: Paulson, Bernanke, LewisDon't hold your breath waiting for any of those crooks to be prosecuted. They are all considered saviors by the president, by Wall Street executives, by the largest banks, by the likes of Warren Buffett and Charles Munger, and all the other ingrates bailed out by the Fed and Congress. Top Three Orwellian Comments Of All Times- An American major after the destruction of the Vietnamese Village Ben Tre: "It became necessary to destroy the village in order to save it."
- Vice President Joe Biden: "We Have to Go Spend Money to Keep From Going Bankrupt."
- President George W. Bush: "I've abandoned free-market principles to save the free-market system."
In contrast, I believe The Most Redeeming Feature of Capitalism is Failure. Business as UsualPresident Obama continues down the path of punishing the innocent and the middle class to protect the likes of Goldman Sachs, Warren Buffet, Charlie Munger, and numerous bank CEOs. Sadly, this is precisely what one should expect when Goldman Sachs, Tim Geithner and the New York Fed, and economic economic illiterates including Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, White House economic adviser Larry Summers, and House Finance Chairman Barney Frank, set the economic policy for the country. Meanwhile, Elizabeth Warren was Tossed a Bone and Appointed Geithner's Lapdog so don't expect any serious financial reform. With that, President Obama just effectively hung out the world's largest advertisement " Business as Usual". Correction: Typos corrected from "amoral" to "immoral" Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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