Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Japan Announces $130 Billion QE Program, One Percent Inflation Target; 4th Quarter GDP Unexpectedly Contracts 2.3%; Lawmakers Threaten to Take Over Monetary Policy
- Cracks in Agreement in Greece, Finland, Germany, France; Of Duct Tape, Glue, Rubber Bands
- Obama Proposes Massive Tax Hikes, Still Comes Up With $1.33 Trillion Deficit; Obama's "Race to the Bottom" Education Proposal; Dysfunctional Congress
- Total Chaos; Riots Rage; Athens Resembles War Zone
Posted: 13 Feb 2012 10:50 PM PST Japan's 4th Quarter GDP Unexpectedly Contracts at 2.3% Annualized Rate The Financial Times reports Japan's GDP shrinks in fourth quarter February 13, 2012Hollowing Out of Japanese Economy This is somewhat dated news from late January, but news that Japan 'More Than Hollowing Out' With First Trade Gap Since 1980 fits in nicely to help explain the article that follows. Jan 25, 2012Japan Announces $130 Billion QE Program, One Percent Inflation Target The previous two articles will help explain this: Japan Announces $130 Billion QE Program, One Percent Inflation Target Feb 13, 2012Lawmakers Threaten to Take Over Monetary Policy In case you missed the key sentence, here it is:"BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa was grilled in parliament last week by lawmakers threatening to revise the BOJ law to give the government more scope to intervene in monetary policy" The one thing worse than having central banks be responsible for monetary policy would be to turn it over to politicians. If I Only Had a Bank! As much as I despise central banks (and I do think they should all be eliminated - to be replaced by free markets), bureaucrats in the US or Japan would likely do much worse on monetary policy than the central banks. Please consider this scary video by Ellen Brown. The idea that North Dakota, a small loosely-populated farm state is in good shape only because it has a state bank is preposterous. Worse yet, Brown takes that absurd position to the extreme, with a proposal to end the Fed and put California politicians (state politicians in general) in charge of printing money to support union causes. Should populist Ellen Brown get her way, I would have to rethink my US hyperinflation position. Sadly, Brown is another one of those who understands various problems with the Fed, but proposes a solution that is worse, putting state politicians in charge of printing presses. Such economically insane ideas are much further along in Japan. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Cracks in Agreement in Greece, Finland, Germany, France; Of Duct Tape, Glue, Rubber Bands Posted: 13 Feb 2012 02:42 PM PST The latest Greek deal is unraveling in multiple places already. The EMU wants to hold it together but can't. Cracks are wide, deep, and widening. Greek Party Leader Might Seek to Renegotiate Terms Social unrest harms hopes of Greek reform Sunday's explosion of street violence in Athens underlines the danger that political disorder may undercut Greece's attempt to implement the economic reforms required to avert a debt default, according to Greek politicians and economists.Unless and until all political parties agree to the terms Germany will not OK the plan. Yet, how can anyone agree to what they cannot control? Election outcomes are not cast in stone. The Guardian says the same thing in Eurozone Crisis Live: "New Democracy wouldn't confirm today that their leader, Antonis Samaras, would sign the pledge. Without his signature, Greece still wouldn't get the bailout package." Finland Seeks Collateral Athens, Helsinki to sign collateral deal Finland may sign a deal on securing collateral in exchange for its commitment to Greece's second bailout in the "next few days," Finance Minister Jutta Urpilainen said on Monday.This battle was fought once before and approved, but if there really is collateral, it places Finland first in line should Greece default. However, the previous collateral proposal was so watered down as to be meaningless. What happens this time, may or may not be the same story. German Head of CSU Party Seeks Referendum on Euro Seehofer calls for people's vote on euro Horst Seehofer, the head of the Christian Social Union party, wants Germans to vote on whether the euro should be saved or not and is calling for a change to Germany's Basic Law, or Constitution, to allow that to happen.French Candidate Hollande Intends to Reopen Treaty Discussions Hollande insists on fiscal treaty move The main opposition candidate for the French presidency has spelt out his intention to reopen discussions on the new European treaty with all signatory countries if he wins the election, a move that would throw into doubt the results of months of negotiations by his opponent Nicolas Sarkozy and the German chancellor Angela Merkel.Of Duct Tape, Glue, Rubber Bands Does anyone seriously believe this penned agreement is worth the paper it's printed on. Actually, what makes anyone think there is an agreement in the first place? This agreement is similar to the effect one would get attempting to use use duct tape, glue, and rubber band, to hold together Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Posted: 13 Feb 2012 10:17 AM PST President Obama made a pledge to cut the deficit in half by the end of his first term. Instead it exceeded a trillion dollars for four straight years. Indeed, the president could not even make a pledge made in September to reduce the deficit to $956 billion. Finally, just to keep the deficit at $1.33 Trillion, look at the tax hikes Obama proposes. Details below summarized from the Bloomberg article Obama Sends $3.8T Budget to Congress Obama Proposed Tax Hikes
It takes all that just to hold the deficit to $1.33 Trillion. Chance of passage would appear to be about zero percent. Republicans Miss Golden Opportunities on "Hard Choices" To be fair, the budget mess is not entirely Obama's fault. Warmongers from both parties refuse to make serious cuts in the defense budget. Moreover, President Obama said that he was willing to make "hard choices". Republicans missed a golden opportunity to put Obama to the test with a plan to accept some tax hikes in return for scrapping Davis Bacon prevailing wage laws and ending collective bargaining for public unions. One of the best things that could possibly happen for the nation would be to get rid of union collective bargaining and initiate national Right-to-Work laws. Would the president have gone along? Probably not. But either way it would have been a win-win for Republicans. They would have shown willingness to compromise by making such an offer. Republicans failed to put the president to the task. No one made any hard choices, not the president, not Democrats, and not Republicans. More Misguided Stimulus Obama proposes blowing a $476 billion in stimulus proposals to create construction jobs, another $121 billion on clean-energy vehicles, and another $350 billion in short-term jobs measures. Unless something is done to rein in costs (hint: pass national right-to work laws, scrap collective bargaining of public unions, end Davis-Bacon and prevailing wage laws) taxpayers will overpay for services rendered (assuming the services rendered are needed at all, as opposed to makeshift work) Freeze On War-Mongering When it comes to war-mongering, the best the president can do is freeze the budget at $525 billion. Proving that he is on Mars, Republican Representative Paul Ryan, chairman of the House Budget Committee, said on ABC's "This Week" that Obama's proposal "hollows out" spending for defense and national security. How holding spending flat at $525 billion while winding down operations in Iraq and Afghanistan "hollows out" defense spending certainly needs to be explained. No Chance of Senate Passage This is a pathetic attempt by the president, and it has no reasonable chance of passage in the Senate. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell said "no," when asked on CBS's "Face the Nation" yesterday if Obama's budget had any chance of passage in that chamber. "Race to the Bottom" Obama wants toss another $69.8 billion at a misnamed "Race to the Top" education program. I propose something vastly different. For details, please see "Student Loan 'Debt Bomb"; Obama's Misguided Proposal and Mish's Two-Point Alternative Proposal Dysfunctional President, Congress As noted in Obama Seeks to Prove He is More Like Romney; Obama vs. Romney - What's the Difference? don't expect Mitt Romney to be much if any better than the president. Both parties are dysfunctional and the nation rots in the wake. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Total Chaos; Riots Rage; Athens Resembles War Zone Posted: 12 Feb 2012 11:39 PM PST Coverage of the chaos in Greece is now everywhere I look. Here is a sampling of stories: The Guardian Greek protesters fight with police as parliament agrees cuts deal As more than 40 buildings went up in flames, including two historic cinemas and several banks, Athens city centre was left resembling a war zone with cafes and shops smashed and looted as MPs backed the austerity measures by 199 votes to 74 in the single most important ballot in modern Greek history.The Telegraph Greece passes crucial bailout vote as country burns The Greek parliament approved a deeply unpopular austerity bill to secure a second $130bn (£110bn) bailout and avoid a messy default after a day of street battles between police and protesters left Athens in flames.Spiegel Online 'Without a New Beginning, Athens Is Lost' The European Union is demanding even greater sacrifices from Greece, despite the deal reached by politicians in Athens on Thursday. Facing more painful cuts, Greek citizens are back on the streets as resentment boils over. German commentators say it's time to finally face the truth.Spiegel Online Photo Gallery Clashes in Athens Slide 1 of 11 : Reuters : Greeks are back on the streets as resentment of the troika continues to grow. Reuters Greek police union wants to arrest EU/IMF officials Greece's largest police union has threatened to issue arrest warrants for officials from the country's European Union and International Monetary Fund lenders for demanding deeply unpopular austerity measures.The New York Times Greek Parliament Passes Austerity Plan as Riots Rage From The Greek Streets Athens Burning: Tens of Banks in Flames Tens of banks and other buildings are burning across Athens after today's demonstrations. There are huge riots in Thessaloniki and Patra as well.Irony of the Day The Irony of the day can be found in The Telegraph headline Merkel has herself to blame if Greece defaults. Blame? Merkel will be praised in Germany when Greece exits the Eurozone. For further discussion, please see Merkel's Official Denial "I will have no part in forcing Greece out of the euro"; Schäuble Starts Salami Tactics on German Participation, Calls for Vote. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
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