Central Perk: 3 sept. 2014

miercuri, 3 septembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Argentina to Circumvent US Supreme Court Bond Ruling Via French Banks; Comments on "Vulture" Funds
Ceasefire or Not? Putin's 7-Point Peace Proposal; Sanction Mad-Hatters; History Lesson
Gallup Survey: 38% Think Economy Getting Better, 56% Say Worse

Argentina to Circumvent US Supreme Court Bond Ruling Via French Banks; Comments on "Vulture" Funds

Posted: 03 Sep 2014 08:32 PM PDT

It's increasingly likely that Argentina will come up with a way to get around a US supreme court ruling on bond payouts.

Here is the background ...

Argentina defaulted on bonds following a debt crisis in 2001-2002. 92% of the investors agreed to haircuts, but an alleged "vulture fund" picked up an 8% share at rock bottom prices and refused to negotiate.

In June, the US Supreme Court ruled that Argentina Cannot Selectively Default on the small group of hold-outs.

Today El Pais reports Argentina Offers to Pay Creditors in France.

Comments Regarding "Vultures"

I have nothing against "vultures" and do not even like the term. In general, vultures serve a purpose, as do those who short stocks.

That said, I find the US Court ruling that Argentina Debt Swap Proposal is Illegal rather odious.

Fortunately the judge stopped short of making a "contempt of court ruling".

Here's the deal in a nutshell. Those investing in Argentinean debt should have known the possible outcome. Argentina has defaulted before. It did so again, and alleged "vulture funds" made a bet they would be paid in full even if no one else would be.

But if holdouts were guaranteed to be paid in full, everyone would be a holdout.

Holdouts Give Vultures a Bad name

I seldom agree with Financial Times writer Martin Wolf, but his September 2, piece Holdouts Give Vultures a Bad Name is spot on.

His conclusion "Argentina's creditors should make every effort to protect themselves from the vagaries of American judges. Fleeing US jurisdiction would seem an extremely sensible move."

And so they did.

On July 19 I wrote Argentina "Determined to Default" Second Time (and it indeed did just that).

I noted, "the problem with the US court ruling is that if Argentina pays the vulture fund full value, it will have to pay all the bondholders full value, and that would wreck the country again." Wolf made similar comments.

I also stated, that "In the future, bond agreements will force everyone to go along with a majority decision." Again, Wolf made a similar statement.

Wolf is likely not aware of my article, so I presume he came to the same conclusions independently.

The problem in this case is US judges think they can tell sovereign nations whether they can or cannot default. I find that both arrogant and ridiculous.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Ceasefire or Not? Putin's 7-Point Peace Proposal; Sanction Mad-Hatters; History Lesson

Posted: 03 Sep 2014 01:35 PM PDT

Ceasefire or Not?

Earlier today Putin outlined a 7-Point Peace Proposal.

The primary conditions on Mr. Putin's list are that the separatists halt all offensive operations and that Ukrainian troops move their artillery back out of range of cities and large towns in the rebel-held area.

Mr. Putin also called for Ukraine to cease airstrikes; the establishment of an international monitoring mission and humanitarian aid corridors; an "all for all" prisoner exchange; and "rebuilding brigades" to repair damaged roads, bridges, power lines and other infrastructure.

What's Not to Like?

Notice that Putin did not demand any territory. Instead, he has proposed a federation in which Eastern Ukraine would remain part of Ukraine.

He also insists, and rightly so, that he cannot force the rebels to do anything.

However, Putin's plan was immediately slammed by Ukraine's prime minister Arseny Yatsenyuk who stated "Putin's real plan is the destruction of Ukraine and the resumption of the U.S.S.R. The best plan to stop Russia's war against Ukraine would be if Russia withdraws their regular troops, mercenaries and terrorists from Ukrainian territory — then peace will be reinstated in Ukraine."

Clearly Yatsenyuk is living in fantasyland. Russia is not going to bow down to Ukraine under any circumstances.

Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin's press secretary, said separately that Russia could not negotiate a cease-fire because it was not a party to the conflict, but that the opinions of the two presidents overlapped.

"Putin and Poroshenko did indeed discuss steps which could facilitate a cease-fire between the militias and the Ukrainian military," Mr. Peskov was quoted as saying by the news agency RIA Novosti. "Russia cannot physically agree on a cease-fire, as it is not a side in the conflict."

Rebel Response

Vladislav Brig, the head of the political department for the rebels' Ministry of Defense in Donetsk, said in a telephone conversation that combat operations were continuing as usual on Wednesday.

"Nobody is holding negotiations about a cease-fire with the representatives of the Donetsk People's Republic," Mr. Brig said. "As long as there are Ukrainian soldiers on our territory, there will be no cease-fire."

Has Anything Changed?

So... Ukraine wants the rebels to lay down arms and the rebels want Ukraine to do the same. Has anything really changed?

The answer is yes. Talk between Putin and Ukraine is good. The answer is not more war. What's needed now is talk with the rebels and ousting Ukraine's prime minister.

Mariupol Surrounded

If the plan is not accepted, rebels are likely to take Mariupol. The city is now surrounded as the the following map shows.

Military Operations August 25 - September 1

For excellent images and commentary, please see Colonel Cassad English Live Journal.

Another Ridiculous Lie

Amid the above peace proposal comes the latest ridiculous lie, this one spread by the Guardian: Thousands of Russian soldiers sent to Ukraine, say rights groups.

According to Valentina Melnikova, head of the Committee of Soldiers' Mothers, the main organization representing the troops' families, between 10,000-15,000 troops have been deployed to Ukraine in recent weeks. "I am convinced I am right," she said, adding that her calculations were based on information from families whose husbands and sons were sent on drills close to the border, but had subsequently gone incommunicado.

Got that. Russia puts troops on the border. They are instructed to keep silent (standard military procedure), and voilà, 15,000 are presumed to be in Ukraine.

Deal or No Deal?

Please consider France Halts Delivery of Warship to Russia.

President François Hollande halted the delivery of the first of two warships to the Russian navy on Wednesday, the clearest sign yet that the west was preparing to take further punitive action against the Kremlin despite claims by Vladimir Putin he was pursuing a ceasefire in Ukraine.

French officials emphasised they had not cancelled the deal, a move that could lead to as much as €1.1bn in fines for breaking the contract.

Apparently they did not cancel the deal, they just won't fulfill it. This one could be headed to court. Given that Russia does not need more warships, Putin would be wise to take the fine (if he can get it) and cancel the deal himself.

Sanction Mad-Hatters

There is 0% evidence that sanctions ever do any good, and crystal clear evidence that sanctions harm both sides, but that does not stop the mad-hatter sanction proponents.

The Brussels Blog has details from a Leaked Russian Sanction Paper.

Sanctions include boycotting the 2018 World Cup to be held in Moscow, and another round of economic sanctions and export bans.

NATO Will Defend Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania

Earlier today President Obama gave a speech in Estonia: NATO Will Defend Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania. Here are a few snips.

And just as we never accepted the occupation and illegal annexation of the Baltic nations, we will not accept Russia's occupation and illegal annexation of Crimea or any part of Ukraine. As free peoples, as an alliance, we will stand firm and united to meet the test of this moment, and here's how.

First we will defend our NATO allies, and that means every ally. In this alliance there are no old members or new members, no junior partners or senior partners. They're just allies, pure and simple, and we will defend the territorial integrity of every single ally.

We'll be here for Estonia. We will be here for Latvia. We will be here for Lithuania. You lost your independence once before. With NATO, you will never lose it again.

History Questions

How many times has Russia been invaded by France and Germany?
How many Russians died when Hitler invaded Russia?
How is it that Russia came to occupy the Baltic nations and East Germany?
Who reneged on promises to not expand NATO in Eastern Europe?
Who fomented the overthrow of Viktor Yanukovych, former president of Ukraine?
Are sanctions working in Iran or are they stirring up resentment?
Did force achieve any positive results in Iraq?
Has US meddling ever made anything better?

The answer to question number two is 25,000,000. For details, inquiring minds may wish to consider the BBC report Hitler's Invasion of Russia in World War Two.

Inquiring minds may also wish to consider Napoleon's Disastrous Invasion of Russia, 200 Years Ago.

NATO Hostility to Test Russia's Resolve

Earlier today Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog pinged me with a report "NATO planning 'rapid-deployment force' of 10,000 troops to counter Russia".

He commented ...

"NATO keeps provoking the Russians, but we are being told it is the other way around. If you look at the entire history of this, it soon becomes clear that the Russians only react. Your post Cold War About to Turn Hot? summarizes things quite nicely actually. Treating Russia like some third rate nation and making an enemy of it has to be one of the most moronic Western policy decisions ever."

A headline on the Financial Times caught my eye today: NATO Hostility to Test Russia's Resolve. To be more precise the headline actually said "Russia Hostility to Test NATO's Resolve".

Realistically, which is more accurate?

Yet, here we are, possibly on the verge of a major war in Europe, with massive economic and geopolitical implications, and people would rather sit back and be spoon fed lies while wondering if the next 50 points in the S&P is up or down.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Gallup Survey: 38% Think Economy Getting Better, 56% Say Worse

Posted: 03 Sep 2014 10:58 AM PDT

In spite of a manufacturing ISM in positive territory for 15 consecutive months, a Gallup Survey shows Economic Confidence at -16, Economic Outlook at -18.

Gallup's Economic Confidence Index is the average of two components: how Americans view current economic conditions and their perception of whether the economy is getting better or worse. In August, 20% said the economy is "excellent" or "good," while 34% said it is poor. This resulted in a current conditions index score of -14, the same current conditions score found for five consecutive months.

Economic outlook has varied a bit more over the past six months, ranging from -14 to -19, although still a much narrower range than in previous years. In August, 38% of Americans said the economy is getting better, while 56% said the economy is getting worse. This resulted in an economic outlook score of -18, similar to the -19 in July.

Gallup Economic Confidence and Current Conditions

click oin chart for sharper image

The Current Conditions Index is derived by taking Excellent plus Good ratings and subtracting Poor.

The Economic Outlook Index is derived by taking those who say the economy is getting better and subtracting those who say it is getting worse.

Both indices have been stable between -13 and -19 for the entire year. The big dip last October is related to Congressional budget bickering.

The economy is getting better for some, but more say it's getting worse. In aggregate, people do not buy this recovery talk. Should they?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Creepy Food That Will Freak You Out
Snoop Dogg Is Now A White Guy Named Todd
Eat The World's Most Expensive Food in One Day [Infographic]

Creepy Food That Will Freak You Out

Posted: 03 Sep 2014 07:21 PM PDT

This food is pretty disturbing. All of it has been transformed into something grotesque and disgusting. It doesn't matter how hungry you are, this food will ruin your appetite.

Snoop Dogg Is Now A White Guy Named Todd

Posted: 03 Sep 2014 02:50 PM PDT

Snoop Dogg isn't Snoop Dogg anymore, now he's white guy Todd. Snoop has transformed himself into Todd by painting his face white and wearing a blonde wig. He's released a recent video where he promotes a site called White Guys Connect and everyone is talking about it. Snoop has had a lot of transformations over the years but this has to be his funniest incarnation yet.

Eat The World's Most Expensive Food in One Day [Infographic]

Posted: 03 Sep 2014 02:44 PM PDT

From a $1,000 Lobster Frittata for breakfast to a $25,000 chocolate ice cream for dessert, The Goodale Miller Team covers the world's most expensive foods from the breakfast table to the dinner plate. Work up a hunger and break out the credit card, because this is one luxurious feast for the senses and wallet.

Click on Image to Enlarge.

"We're Stronger Because We're Democracies"

Featured

"We're Stronger Because We're Democracies"

At the Nordea Concert Hall in Tallinn, Estonia today, President Obama spoke to students, young professionals, and civic leaders about the enduring strength and promise of democracy.

In celebrating the 10th anniversary of the Baltics in NATO, the President noted that "freedom needs a foundation of security," and will now "always be guaranteed by the strongest military alliance the world has ever known." He made clear, however, that it's not a military alliance that makes our countries strong -- it is our commitment to democracy:

We're stronger because we're democracies. We're not afraid of free and fair elections, because true legitimacy can only come from one source -- and that is the people. We're not afraid of an independent judiciary, because no one is above the law. We're not afraid of a free press or vibrant debate or a strong civil society, because leaders must be held accountable. We're not afraid to let our young people go online to learn and discover and organize, because we know that countries are more successful when citizens are free to think for themselves.

See more of the President's remarks here:

Back to School: Lesson 1- What is SEO?

Posted: 02 Sep 2014 09:29 AM PDT

This week, over 600,000 children in England are starting school for the first time – and in a strange sense, I feel like one of them. It was only a few weeks ago that I started in the role of Marketing Executive here at White and only just over a year ago that I decided to hand in my resignation as a school teacher and make a complete career change. Entering the big world of marketing, moreover, the world of digital marketing has been an eye-opening and insightful experience, but something tells me that what I’ve seen so far is only the tip of the iceberg.

White

I met Stuart, our company's founder and MD, at an annual round table debate evening held by my university at the time, Oxford Brookes. With several companies attending from a wealth of industries, I had been given the role of "greeter girl" at the door. Wanting to make the time worth my while, I took the opportunity to network with every company representative that walked past me, whilst also boldly asking if they were hiring. Stuart was one of the first to reply, 'actually, we might have something for you at White…' After two interviews, I landed the role of Marketing Executive at White's offices in Oxford. New to the industry, I did what any freshly-graduated student would do starting in a SEO company for the first time, I went on Amazon and bought SEO for Dummies. Book read, lunch packed and new handbag ready to go, I set off to explore the world of digital…

Welcome to the Industry

After only the first few hours, I already loved the world of digital and what it entailed. I was given a thorough induction talk by the one-and-only Ian Hucklesby, White’s Commercial Director, to the world of SEO, which took up an entire wall and afternoon. Through a haze of confusion filled with crawlers and matrices, I knew that if I was ever going to survive in this world, White was the place to be. From studying White as part of my Master's degree in Marketing at university, it was obvious that the company was in an exciting stage. New staff, new branding, and new clients were all contributors to the progress White has made and now I was on this fast moving bandwagon. Having gone through so many development stages, White has so much potential and is strategically placing itself in a very competitive and powerful position. Having worked in other companies before, it is exciting to work agency-side and witness everything that goes on behind the scenes. The extent of analysis, knowledge and understanding required for this job was really demonstrated in a pitch in London for a high-end hotel, with one of our senior specialists. While only there to observe, I learned so much not only about PPC and SEO but also on how to pitch to potential clients. Needless to say we won the pitch, which once again proved to me that this is an agency that really knows its stuff.

Looking Forward

There's a saying that everything happens for a reason and my experiences to date have proven this. I think this company has an extremely talented team that works well together and is going from strength to strength. White is undeniably raising the bar of the digital marketing world and even though my experience here is limited, I can safely say with confidence….watch this space!

The post Back to School: Lesson 1- What is SEO? appeared first on White.net.