Central Perk: 24 mar. 2014

luni, 24 martie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

BRICs Under Attack: S&P Cuts Brazil's Credit Rating to One Notch Above Speculative
Will Prices Rise Significantly When Velocity of Money Picks Up?
Stupidity is Logical and Understandable; So, How Stupid Will Things Get?
Monetary Perspective on QE and Tapering
China Output Contracts at Quickest Pace in 18 Months

BRICs Under Attack: S&P Cuts Brazil's Credit Rating to One Notch Above Speculative

Posted: 24 Mar 2014 10:24 PM PDT

BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) cannot seem to get much love lately. Today, it's Brazil's turn to say "show me the love".

Reuters reports S&P Cuts Brazil Credit Rating.

Standard & Poor's cut Brazil's sovereign debt rating closer to speculative territory on Monday in a blow to President Dilma Rousseff, whose efforts to stir the economy from a years-long slump have eroded the country's finances.

Brazil had its long-term debt rating downgraded to BBB minus, the agency's lowest investment-grade rating. S&P changed its outlook to stable from negative, meaning further downgrades are unlikely for now, which will come as a relief for both politicians in Brasilia and financial markets.

The move was widely expected but the timing surprised some investors.

"The downgrade reflects the combination of fiscal slippage, the prospect that fiscal execution will remain weak amid subdued growth in the coming years, a constrained ability to adjust policy ahead of the October presidential elections, and some weakening in Brazil's external accounts," S&P said.

The agency said that fiscal credibility had been "systematically weakened" following cuts in the government's main budget target, and that loans by state-run banks had "undermined policy credibility and transparency."

The Brazilian finance ministry rejected S&P's arguments and said the downgrade contradicted Brazil's solid economic fundamentals and healthy standing compared with other major economies.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Will Prices Rise Significantly When Velocity of Money Picks Up?

Posted: 24 Mar 2014 12:18 PM PDT

Several people have written recently telling me that price inflation is under control only because the velocity of money (the alleged rate at which money circulates) is falling.

Reader Mark pinged me with this statement "Falling velocity is deflationary. It indicates people are saving their cash." Others have expressed similar opinions, typically in reference to this chart by the Fed.

Velocity

Discussion of Ratios

That chart looks ominous. Is it?

First, please note the chart says velocity is a "ratio". A ratio of what?

Velocity = Value of Transactions/Supply of Money.
The value of transactions = Price * Transactions.
In other words
V = (P)(T/M) where where V stands for velocity, P stands for average prices, T stands for volume of transactions, and M stands for the money supply.

Multiplying both sides by M yields the frequently cited equation: M(V) = P(T).

Economists use real GDP as a measure of P(T).
Thus M(V) = GDP. And of course V = GDP/M

The ratio in the above chart is Real GDP/M2. Clearly velocity is falling.

Velocity Theory

The widely presented theory is "prices will rapidly rise if velocity increases." One problem with making such assumptions is in regards to measurement.

What is Money? Is it M1, M2, M3 (discontinued), MZM, TMS1, or TMS2? Each one will give you a different measure of velocity. The Fed provides Three Measures of Velocity.

And what about GDP? Recall that government spending, no matter how useless, adds to GDP. If the government paid people to spit at the moon it would add to GDP by definition. And as stupid as that sounds, it would have been less destructive than bombing Iraq to smithereens, making enemies in the process, and reducing the supply of oil at the same time.

If GDP is debatable and money is debatable, and prices cannot be precisely measured in the first place, can velocity mean much?

Three Important Statements Regarding Velocity

Velocity is falling because money supply is rising faster than GDP.
If the Fed stops printing (more precisely if money supply is constant) and GDP goes up, velocity will go up automatically. Prices could actually drop with rising velocity if the volume of transactions goes up enough to make up for it!
As an implied result of statements one and two, we can correctly deduce that rising or falling velocity will not cause anything in particular to happen to prices.

Is Velocity Like Magic?

Also consider some similar observations made by Frank Shostak in the Mises Daily article Is Velocity Like Magic?

Velocity Has Nothing To Do With the Purchasing Power of Money

Does velocity have anything to do with prices of goods? Prices are the outcome of individuals' purposeful actions. Thus John the baker believes that he will raise his living standard by exchanging his ten loaves of bread for $10, which will enable him to purchase 5kg of potatoes from Bob the potato farmer. Likewise, Bob has concluded that by means of $10 he will be able to secure the purchase of 10kg of sugar, which he believes will raise his living standard.

By entering an exchange, both John and Bob are able to realize their goals and thus promote their respective well-being. In other words, John had agreed that it is a good deal to exchange ten loaves of bread for $10, for it will enable him to procure 5kg of potatoes. Likewise, Bob had concluded that $10 for his 5kg of potatoes is a good price for it will enable him to secure 10kg of sugar. Observe that price is the outcome of different ends, hence the different importance that both parties to a trade assign to means.

In short, it is individuals' purposeful actions that determine the prices of goods and not some mythical notion of velocity.

Consequently, the fact that so-called velocity is "3" or any other number has nothing to do with average prices and the average purchasing power of money as such. Moreover, the average purchasing power of money cannot even be established. For instance, in a transaction, the price of $1 was established as one loaf of bread. In another transaction, the price of $1 was established as 0.5kg of potatoes, while in the third transaction the price is 1kg of sugar. Observe that, since bread, potatoes, and sugar are not commensurable, no average price of money can be established.

Now, if the average price of money can't be established, it means that the average price of goods can't be established either. Consequently, the entire equation of exchange falls apart. In short, conceptually, the whole thing is not a tenable proposition, and covering a fallacy in mathematical clothing cannot make it less fallacious.

Velocity Does Not Have an Independent Existence

Contrary to mainstream economics, velocity does not have a "life of its own." It is not an independent entity--it is always value of transactions P(T) divided into money M, i.e., P(T/M). On this Rothbard wrote: "But it is absurd to dignify any quantity with a place in an equation unless it can be defined independently of the other terms in the equation." (Man, Economy, and State, p. 735)

Since V is P(T/M), it follows that the equation of exchange is reduced to M(PxT)/M = P(T), which is reduced to P(T) = P(T), and this is not a very interesting truism. It is like stating that $10=$10, and this tautology conveys no new knowledge of economic facts.

Conclusion

Most of the discussion to date regarding the velocity of money has been ridiculous.

Velocity can rise when prices are going up
Velocity can fall when prices are going up
Velocity can rise when prices are falling
Velocity can fall when prices are falling

Given GDP = P(T), you can repeat the above four statements substituting GDP for prices. Doing so, please note that rising prices with falling GDP would be the dreaded stagflation scenario, something Keynesian theory once suggested was "impossible".

In short, it may very well be that prices rise with rising velocity, but they may also rise with falling velocity. Thus ...

Velocity is an essentially meaningless result in an essentially meaningless equation. Rising or falling velocity will not cause anything to happen.

Yet, the debate over the importance of velocity rages on.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Stupidity is Logical and Understandable; So, How Stupid Will Things Get?

Posted: 24 Mar 2014 11:10 AM PDT

As president Obama arrives in Europe to meet German chancellor Angela Merkel, Pressure mounts on Merkel Over Sanctions in Ukraine Crisis.

When Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, meets Barack Obama, US president, at The Hague nuclear security summit on Monday, she will come under pressure to back economic sanctions against Russia.

Meanwhile, in Germany, belief is growing among top policy makers that economic penalties might soon come. Norbert Röttgen, chairman of the Bundestag's foreign affairs committee and a leading member of Ms Merkel's CDU party, said in a newspaper interview on Sunday that "further western sanctions, including economic sanctions" were "inevitable".

Günther Oettinger, German EU energy commissioner, late last week called for the imposition of economic sanctions on Russia in response to the annexation of Crimea, even without waiting for further aggression from Moscow.

"I consider sanctions, which hit economic relations, involving exports, imports and investment, as logical and understandable," the senior CDU politician told Die Welt newspaper.

But those doing business with Russia have not given up the fight. Eckhard Cordes, the head of the Eastern Committee, the powerful Russia-oriented business lobby, argued, in an interview on Friday with Handelsblatt, the business daily, that sanctions on Russia would not work.

"We have a strategic partnership . . . to bring our peoples together," Mr Cordes said. "And now we want to cover ourselves with sanctions? I find that difficult to imagine."

Stupidity is Never Difficult to Imagine

Cordes finds sanctions "difficult to imagine" but Merkel's CDU party chief says further sanctions are "inevitable".

Upping the ante, German EU energy commissioner, Oettinger, a ranking CDU politician wants increased sanctions without waiting for further aggression from Moscow. Oettinger says sanctions, which hit economic relations, involving exports, imports and investment are "logical and understandable"

Since sanctions won't work and are a sure-fire Negative Sum Game, this is what Oettinger is really saying: "Stupidity is Logical and Understandable".

Russia Imposes Sanctions on 13 Canadians, Including MPs

While waiting for inevitable stupidity from Germany, the Globe and Mail reports Russia imposes sanctions on 13 Canadians, including MPs.

The Russian government has banned entry to 13 Canadian senior civil servants and politicians in retaliation for punitive actions that Ottawa levied on Moscow elite over the annexation of Crimea and the destabilization of Ukraine.

The largely symbolic sanctions, which do not target Prime Minister Stephen Harper or Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird, come hours before the Group of Seven is expected to suspend Russia from the G8 and cancel a planned summit in Sochi.

According to a statement circulated by the Russian Foreign Ministry, the list of targeted Canadians includes a handful of senior servants, a couple of senior ranking Conservatives, three Tory backbenchers and outspoken opposition critics.

Mr. Baird called Moscow's tit-for-tat action against Canadian lawmakers and officials a "badge of honour" for Canada in its campaign against the annexation of Crimea.

Stupidity Is ...

Logical
Understandable
Inevitable
A Badge of Honor

With all that going for stupidity, especially with major egos involved (see Buffoon Bluffery; What are Sanctions Really About?), no one can precisely answer the question "How stupid will things get?"

Here's one thing we do know for sure: Failure is Truly Success!

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Monetary Perspective on QE and Tapering

Posted: 24 Mar 2014 01:42 AM PDT

In Reflections on the Yellen Taper-Hike Announcement; What Does the Fed Know? I quoted the opinion of Saxo Bank Chief economist Steen Jakobsen.

Steen commented "Please, do not think for one minute that FOMC have any clue about the economy six months from and even less so looking into 2015."

I am certainly in agreement with Steen, and gave my own look into what the Fed knew or didn't in Hilarious Transcripts of Fed Minutes from 2008 Reveal Completely Clueless Fed.

Opinions aside, let's take a look at facts from a monetary point of view.

My friend "BC" pinged me with the following chart.

Monetary Base vs. Loans and Leases

click on any chart for sharper image

Note that the adjusted monetary base is playing catchup to loans and leases of all commercial banks.

When that happens, and I believe it will, taper or no taper, will base money be sufficient to cover all credit?

Not quite. Taking a lead from "BC", here is a chart I put together.

Credit Market Instruments Liability vs. Monetary Base

This is precisely what fractional reserve lending has wrought. Total credit liabilities approach $60 trillion. Those liabilities are backed up by about $4 trillion in base money supply.

Some people might object the above chart reflects money substitutes and not money. Fair enough. So how much base money covers checking and savings accounts?

Monetary Base vs. Checking Plus Savings Accounts

Some readers will recognize the above chart as True Money Supply "TMS2" vs. Base Money Supply.
TMS2 consists of currency plus all the individual components of checking and savings deposits.

In terms of how much base money covers savings and checking accounts, you can see about $6 trillion is missing. Loans and Leases are another matter as is Total Credit Liability.

So when the Fed says it will "taper", let me ask some simple questions:

In what timeframe?
For how long before the next monetary expansion happens?
What happens in the event of a recession or even a serious global slowdown?
What will other central banks do?

Bonus Question: What is this likely to mean for gold?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

China Output Contracts at Quickest Pace in 18 Months

Posted: 23 Mar 2014 11:58 PM PDT

The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI shows Output Contracts at Quickest Pace in 18 Months. The overall PMI index, new orders, and production were all lower.

Key points

Flash China Manufacturing PMI™ at 48.1 in March (48.5 in February). Eight-month low.
Flash China Manufacturing Output Index at 47.3 in March (48.8 in February). Eighteen-month low.

Commenting on the Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co - Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said: "The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI reading for March suggests that China's growth momentum continued to slow down. Weakness is broadly-based with domestic demand softening further. We expect Beijing to launch a series of policy measures to stabilize growth. Likely options include lowering entry barriers for private investment, targeted spending on subways, air-cleaning and public housing, and guiding lending rates lower."

In the face of an explosion of credit, still growing imbalances, malinvestments, property and other bubbles, it is a mystery why anyone expects China to make efforts to "stabilize growth".

To stabilize growth implies more bad loans and more SOE malinvestment. Given China's massive housing vacancies, support for still more housing is ridiculous.

More malinvestment is possible of course, but the longer China attempts to keep the credit party going, the worse the ultimate implosion.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Never Buy These Fast Food Items

Posted: 24 Mar 2014 11:58 AM PDT

You should never buy these food according to the employees there.

Courtney Stodden Fell Off Her Bike

Posted: 24 Mar 2014 10:52 AM PDT

When Courtney Stodden falls off her bike it looks kind of sexy.

How to Fake Weight Loss Photos

Posted: 24 Mar 2014 10:28 AM PDT

The second photo was made only 30 minutes later.

I need your help

Hey --

We're really getting close.

We've been talking a lot about health care recently. For good reason: The deadline is in just seven days.

After open enrollment ends on March 31, you won't be able to get insurance through the marketplace until 2015.

If you know someone who still hasn't signed up for health care, tell them to go to HealthCare.gov right now and sign up. This is their last chance.

Now is the time for people to get covered.

I know life is busy -- and after all the troubles with the website early on, some folks have been hesitant to give it a second chance. But the website is working great now: We've signed up more than 5 million Americans already, and more are signing up every day.

I've tasked my team with doing everything they can to get us over the finish line.

But here's what we know: People like you having conversations with your friends and family will make all the difference.

That's why I need your help -- pass this message on to one person who still needs to sign up for coverage. Tell them to go to HealthCare.gov right now and check out the options for themselves.

The deadline is in seven days. Our health is way too important to ignore -- nobody can afford to just cross their fingers and hope for the best.

Thank you for all your hard work,

President Barack Obama

P.S. -- I took some time out to answer a couple questions about health care and getting covered. Take a minute to see them here.

This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com.
Unsubscribe | Privacy Policy
Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House

We're updating the White House privacy policy on April 18. Learn more.

The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

Getting Reviews the Right Way for Local Businesses

Posted: 23 Mar 2014 04:14 PM PDT

Posted by katemorris

It's the bane of every business that relies on local traffic: reviews. Reviews are not new to business. We have been dealing with them in business since we had businesses and people could talk. In the last few years, we have been able to participate in the conversations that happen between consumers. Local reviews are just an extension of word of mouth marketing. It's a permanent record of consumer's thoughts of your business much like social media.

The worst part is having no reviews, or having reviews (GLOWING reviews) from real customers, and Yelp doesn't show or count them. Reviews are the links of the local world. They drive new business and are imperative to growth. However, if you ask for one or incentivize their posting, they might not count.

Yelp Review Guidelines:

"You shouldn't ask your customers to post reviews on Yelp."

Google+ Review Guidelines:

"Reviews are only valuable when they are honest and unbiased â€¦ Don't offer money or product to others to write reviews for your business or write negative reviews about a competitor. We also discourage specialized review stations or kiosks set up at your place of business for the sole purpose of soliciting reviews."

What's a business owner to do?!

Learn from link building

This is going to come at an odd time as link building (guest posting) is hot in the search media right now, but the link building world has been through this exact situation and local businesses can learn from it.

Don't chase tactics. Look for inspiration from other businesses but modify ideas to your business and your users. Just like link building, if your reviews show up in a pattern, that pattern is detectable by a computer algorithm and will likely be discounted.

Anything that is pattern-based is detectable, including:

IP address of the reviewer: Never ask for reviews from your location(s).
Timeline: This means if a number of reviews come in together over a period of time, think all in one day or one week. It reflects that they were asked to leave a review in one big push.
Same phrases: If many reviews use the same phrasing, it can look orchestrated.

Scale is the enemy. Along the same lines as the patterns discussion above, trying to scale reviews is going to produce detectable trends. Don't try to go out and get reviews en masse. You need them, yes, but a slow trend is the better way to get them. This brings us to the next point: influence.

Influence and integrate

We just covered what not to do; now let's review how to go about getting reviews that are approved, shown, and can help grow your business. Just like links, reviews are best when they are placed there without your interaction, but that doesn't mean you should ignore the matter completely. Businesses can influence people to leave reviews. Influence, not entice or coerce. Influence with communication.

Guaranteed reviews: knock down, drag-out fantastic customer service

This is the one solid way to get reviews without ever having to mention the word review. I'm talking Zappos, Nordstrom, and Amazon level of customer service. You treat your customersâ€"all of themâ€"like they are kings and queens. Give them no choice but to tell people about you. The following is a review for one of my favorite food trucks in Seattle:

This is a long time investment though and I know not everyone has the time or thinks about leaving reviews. You can't make great customer service happen IRL sometimes, it's not always you in control. Regardless, this is still the best long-term solution.

But businesses have immediate needs, so here is how to address getting more reviews now.

Define your customer lifecycle

The key is laying out the standard lifecycle of a customer. I am going to pick on a favorite local business that inspired this post: Dreamclinic Seattle. The blue is online interaction, purple is in-person interaction. You can get more color coded with medium (email, organic, yellow pages, etc.) but I went with simple.

Dreamclinic

The main point of outlining the customer lifecycle is to see the cycle part of it and realize you have more than one opportunity to influence a review. Most businesses that rely on reviews have a customer lifecycle. If you haven't defined yours, do that now.

Integrate with all email marketing

1. Define email contact points

Once you have the customer lifecycle, add in when you normally contact your customers via email. You want to know when they are already online and thinking about you (this is key to online engagement!). There should be a few opportunities like newsletters, offers, post-purchase, post-visit, and confirmations. It doesn't matter if you are selling a good or a service, there should be communication throughout the customer lifecycle.

2. When will the customer be in the right frame of mind to leave a review?

Now consider when the customer is going to be able to write the best review. Sometimes it'll be almost immediately after the purchase, sometimes a few weeks after. For example: Dreamclinic needs to have a "Drink water!" reminder email an hour after a massage with a mention of social media and scheduling the next appointment (the mentions being side thoughts and the water being the main purpose).

3. Communicate for something other than a review.

Once you know when the best time is, line that up with a communication with the customer that is not about a review. Find another reason to get a hold of them. It can be a customer service survey or just a check in about their purchase. In this email, don't attempt to sell them anything, be genuinely interested in how they are feeling. If you get a reply (an engaged customer), then be sure to mention (one-on-one) that you would appreciate a review.

Notice that this whole process is basically identifying people that want to leave a review, are engaged with your brand, and are conversing with you individually. There is nothing about scale here; it's all about identifying people individually and helping them help your business.

Mention social media in all communication

Beyond email, you should be mentioning your best converting and favorite social media outlets for your business to your customers. Not for reviews, but for engagement. Reviews will come with engagement.

Start with the questions:

Where do you get the most community involvement?
Are you a new business? If so, where do your competitors see more engagement?

List those places, don't just use Facebook and Twitter because you "should." Once you know your top converting communities, mention them to your customers in all parts of the life cycle. Think about your business cards, mailers, receipts, the chalkboard outside, your menu, and more. Check out some inspiration I found from Heidi Cohen.

Remember, mention your online communities and integrate the mentions into the whole lifecycle, and the reviews will roll in naturally.

Speaking of local search issues, have you heard about the new Moz Local?

Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

First Lady Michelle Obama, Her Daughters, and the Great Wall

Featured

First Lady Michelle Obama, Her Daughters, and the Great Wall

Yesterday, First Lady Michelle Obama visited the Great Wall of China with her daughters. As she wrote in her Travel Journal:

We drove about an hour north of Beijing to a village called Mutianyu to visit a section of the Great Wall of China, which was simply breathtaking. The scenery on the way there was beautiful -- a wide vista of mountains and trees -- so the car ride alone was a treat. But then, running along the highest ridges of the mountains, you see it: The Great Wall -- one of the great marvels of human history.

First Lady Michelle Obama and Malia and Sasha visit the Great Wall of China, March 22, 2014. (Official White House Photo by Amanda Lucidon)

Seth's Blog : Not even one note

Not even one note

Starting at the age of nine, I played the clarinet for eight years.

Actually, that's not true. I took clarinet lessons for eight years when I was a kid, but I'm not sure I ever actually played it.

Eventually, I heard a symphony orchestra member play a clarinet solo. It began with a sustained middle C, and I am 100% certain that never once did I play a note that sounded even close to the way his sounded.

And yet...

And yet the lessons I was given were all about fingerings and songs and techniques. They were about playing higher or lower or longer notes, or playing more complex rhythms. At no point did someone sit me down and say, "wait, none of this matters if you can't play a single note that actually sounds good."

Instead, the restaurant makes the menu longer instead of figuring out how to make even one dish worth traveling across town for. We add many slides to our presentation before figuring out how to utter a single sentence that will give the people in the room chills or make them think. We confuse variety and range with quality.

Practice is not the answer here. Practice, the 10,000 hours thing, practice alone doesn't produce work that matters. No, that only comes from caring. From caring enough to leap, to bleed for the art, to go out on the ledge, where it's dangerous. When we care enough, we raise the bar, not just for ourselves, but for our customer, our audience and our partners.

It's obvious, then, why I don't play the clarinet any more. I don't care enough, can't work hard enough, don't have the guts to put that work into the world. This is the best reason to stop playing, and it opens the door to go find an art you care enough to make matter instead. Find and make your own music.

The cop-out would be to play the clarinet just a little, to add one more thing to my list of mediocre.

As Jony Ive said, "We did it because we cared, because when you realize how well you can make something, falling short, whether seen or not, feels like failure."

It's much easier to add some features, increase your network, get some itemized tasks done. Who wants to feel failure?

We opt for more instead of better.

Better is better than more.