marți, 17 decembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Rand Paul Ponders NSA Class-Action Lawsuit Options; Senator Recruits 'Hundreds of Thousands' of Plaintiffs; Rand Paul 2016

Posted: 17 Dec 2013 04:31 PM PST

In the wake of a welcome court ruling that NSA mass collection of phone conversations is unconstitutional (see District Court Judge Rules NSA Phone Taps Likely Unconstitutional; 68 Page Ruling Cites "Orwellian Technology" and Unreasonable Searches), come more welcome news that senator Rand Paul is going to turn up the heat further.

Rand Paul Ponders NSA Class-Action Lawsuit Options

Please consider Rand Paul Plots NSA Class-Action Lawsuit Options
After months of consideration, Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., is moving closer to filing a lawsuit in federal court against National Security Agency surveillance programs.

A senior Paul staffer says U.S. District Court Judge Richard Leon's Monday decision that NSA opponents have standing to sue over the bulk collection of phone records makes Paul "much more likely" to file his own lawsuit.

The senior staffer, who spoke with U.S. News on background, says hundreds of thousands of people volunteered online as possible plaintiffs after Paul first floated the idea of a class-action lawsuit in June.

The senator has not firmly decided to file suit and it's still possible Paul will choose to instead assist with three already-filed lawsuits against the NSA.

If Paul does file a lawsuit it would be the fourth major legal attack against the NSA's bulk collection and five-year storage of American phone records.

Lawsuits against the phone-record collection are already filed in federal court by the American Civil Liberties Union in New York, by conservative legal activist Larry Klayman of Freedom Watch in Washington, D.C., and by the Electronic Frontier Foundation in San Francisco.

Klayman won a major victory against the NSA on Monday, with Leon ruling the phone record program is likely a violation of the Fourth Amendment. Leon granted a preliminary injunction barring the collection, but stayed implementation pending appeal.

Unlike the possible Paul lawsuit, Klayman only sought a handful of original plaintiffs. He is seeking for the "class" he represents to be defined by Leon to include all Americans affected by the program, which purportedly helps scuttle terrorist plots - an accomplishment Leon disputed.

The senior Paul staffer stressed that Paul is currently evaluating strategy options. If a lawsuit is filed, it would likely be in either D.C. or Kentucky. It's unclear which Paul-affiliated entity would file the challenge.
Rand Paul 2016

I salute Rand Paul for his efforts. And as noted on numerous occasions, I also salute U.S. hero Edward Snowden who revealed the unconstitutional data collection efforts.

Finally, I wish Rand Paul well, hoping he wins the Republican nomination, then replaces president Obama as the next president of the United States.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Laughable Eurozone Banking "Non-Union"; Expect Disorderly Breakup

Posted: 17 Dec 2013 11:07 AM PST

On December 12 the Financial Times reported EU reaches landmark deal on failed banks with a "common rule book for handling failed banks".

Gunnar Hökmark, the lead negotiator for the parliamentary side, said: "We now have a strong bail-in system which sends a clear message that bank shareholders and creditors will be the ones to bear the losses on rainy days, not taxpayers. At the same time we also established clear rules to deal with the most exceptional cases in which overall financial stability is in danger."

The next day, a friend commented the banking union agreement proved me wrong. I replied "wait for the details".

Laughable Details Now Pouring In

Let's start with a look at Eurozone Red Tape in the Financial Times just three short days later.
Fears are growing that the eurozone's proposed new banking regime will be too bureaucratic for the task of handling a sudden collapse of a cross-border institution.

The latest proposals could see up to 126 people being consulted on how to wind up a bank, even though agreement might need to be reached over the course of a weekend while financial markets are closed. Some senior officials are warning the proposals are too cumbersome.

A Financial Times analysis of the full banking union resolution process for a lender operating in three countries reveals the labyrinthine procedure that would still be required to wind up a bank. In a worst case scenario, where key officials disagree, this could involve nine panels and up to 143 votes being cast, from its supervisor raising a warning flag to the final wind-up decision.
Germany Backtracks on Banking Union

MarketWatch reports Germany appears to backtrack on EU banking deal
EU finance ministers have promised to agree on a so-called single-resolution mechanism--consisting of more centralized decision-making and financing for the shuttering or downsizing of failing banks--before the end of the year. But a letter sent by Wolfgang Schäuble to some of his counterparts sets clear limits on how far Europe's biggest economy is willing to go.

Mr. Schäuble's letter, dated Dec. 12 and seen by The Wall Street Journal, was described by German officials as reiterating Berlin's concerns expressed in recent talks.

At the heart of the disagreement is what to do when so-called bank resolution funds, financed by the banking sector, run out of money.

Under the provisional agreement reached last week, euro-zone countries would start building up national resolution funds by imposing levies on their banks. Those national funds would be gradually merged over 10 years into a single European fund containing around €55 billion.

Throughout the talks, Germany and other rich euro-zone countries such as Finland made clear that they didn't want their taxpayers to pay for problems that had developed in other countries' banks in the past. If the resolution funds prove too small to deal with a big bank's failure, taxpayers in the lender's home country should pick up the bill, they argued.

France and some Southern European countries, meanwhile, have been pushing to use the euro-zone government bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, as the common backstop.

Berlin believes the single resolution fund will be sufficient to deal with even large bank failures, the officials said.

"We think 55 billion [euros] would be an impressive sum," said one. In the unlikely event that it turns out not to be enough, the official said, the bank's home country could always ask for a loan from the ESM, just like Spain did last year.

That is the line Mr. Schäuble also took in his letter. "The SRF having reached its target level...will be the backstop to safeguard stability and protect taxpayers," he wrote. Mr. Schäuble hinted that Germany might agree to some deeper integration later, by calling for a "revision clause, based on implementation experience, on when and how to further improve and develop the future mechanism and backstop."
EU Ministers Set to Define Banking Union

Today, the Financial Times reports EU Ministers Set to Define Banking Union
Europe's banking union is at a crucial juncture. Three late-night meetings of finance ministers this week, culminating on Wednesday, is likely to define the eurozone's system for policing how its banks live and die, including a common fund to cover rescues. It marks the biggest surrender of sovereignty since the creation of the euro.

How will the costs of a bank failure be covered?

The first line of defence is imposing losses on the bank's shareholders and creditors. If that is insufficient then a bank-paid resolution fund will kick in. The fund aims to hit a €55bn target over 10 years; until then it is split into national funds that are gradually merged. In 2020, for instance, about €12.5bn of joint funds would be available, which amounts to perhaps a €3bn German contribution. A big bank collapse would dwarf the available resources; some €473bn of capital has been pumped into EU banks since 2008.

Will the banking union cover all eurozone banks?

It is a single system under law. But in practice national authorities will be the master of small banks (Germany would accept nothing less). The ECB will directly supervise around 130 of the bloc's 6,200 lenders, which covers 85 per cent of the bloc's bank assets. The resolution system will directly cover a couple of hundred more, as all cross-border institutions will be covered.

How does this relate to the ECB-led bank health check?

Banking union won't be ready for the results of the ECB health check in November 2014. Its resolution system will only be up and running from 2016. In any event Germany is determined that "legacy" costs are not shared. So the fallout from the review of banks will be mainly handled at national level, under existing rules.

What are the main weaknesses?

These are sweeping reforms agreed – in EU terms – at lightning speed. But scores of people are potentially voting on a resolution decision. The common resolution funds are not automatically available. There is no joint backstop if the resolution fund is overwhelmed. Deposit guarantees are as good as the ability of the national government to back them. Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany's finance minister, once called for a "timber-framed" system as a first step to full banking union. This might be it.
Serious Questions

Sweeping reforms? Lightening Speed? When only €12.5bn of joint funds would be available by 2020? When the first line of defence is imposing losses on the bank's shareholders and creditors?

Please be serious.

Banking Union Not Worth Supporting

Staunch eurozone supporter Wolfgang Munchau concluded on December 15, Banking Union Not Worth Supporting

Many advocates of banking union, including me, underestimated the economic costs of the banking union. ... Against the costs, one must obviously also consider the potential benefits. ... If done right, this could have been a hugely important project.

But, unless we see some important shifts in the balance of the argument, the political agreement reached last week simply did not cut it. I am not holding my breath here, since the political deal is done. But unless there are important additions to what we have been told about the deal, I would not think this banking union is worth supporting.

Banking Union Math

Munchau's reasons are important. He notes that the ECB will end up as "supervisor" of 128 banks with an aggregate balance sheet "somewhere between €26 trillion and €27 trillion."

How big is the proposed bailout fund? €55 billion, not available immediately, but built up over 10 years. It will take 10 years to build up a fund equivalent to a mere 0.2 per cent of the asset base.

Munchau asks "Would you call it insurance if the payout depended on whether the German parliament voted in favour?" That's a good question, but what about the other nine panels and up to 143 votes it would take for approval?

Munchau concludes "It is not a banking union, and should be rejected."

Indeed. There is no banking union, nor will there be one even if the various finance ministers agree to double or triple the alleged "impressive sum" of €55 billion built up over 10 years.

Expect Disorderly Breakup
 
Lost is the debate about "impressive sums", is the simple fact there should not be a banking union in the first place. In practical terms, there still isn't, but no one wants to admit that.

And given that there isn't a genuine union (which is the only way to realistically hold this mess together a bit longer), the eurozone ministers ought to focus on a meaningful task: how best to break up the eurozone with minimal disruption.

Unfortunately, they won't. Thus, the resultant eurozone breakup will prove to be very disruptive. The only other possibilities (and I have mentioned them before) are 1. slow growth and extremely high unemployment in the peripheral countries for another decade 2. Germany and the Northern countries pony up hundreds of billions of euros in more support (debt forgiveness, not loans).

Pick your poison, but a breakup is the most likely result.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Fed Study Shows Drop in Participation Rate Explained by Retirement; Let's Explore that Idea, in Depth and in Pictures

Posted: 17 Dec 2013 02:54 AM PST

A November Fed study on the Causes of Declines in the Labor Force Participation Rate by Shigeru Fujita at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia concludes "The decline in the participation rate in the last one-and-a-half years (when the unemployment rate declined faster than expected) is entirely due to retirement."

Fujita based that statement on BLS surveys that look at the underlying reasons people give for nonparticipation. 

The CPS divides nonparticipants into three broad categories: disabled, retired, and others. The last category includes nonparticipation due to "discouragement."

Based on respondents' reasons for nonparticipation, weighted by age group, Fujita produced this chart (trendlines in red by me).

Nonparticipation Rates by Reason



I do not doubt for one second the chart represents responses given to the BLS. But is there any evidence the answers given to the BLS are correct?

Let's explore the question in a series of step-by-step charts.

First a chart by Doug Short at Advisor Perspectives that shows participation rates of various age groups.

Age 50 and Older Participation Rates



Interestingly, the biggest decline in labor force in percentage terms is in the 50-54 group. However, that is not conclusive. Because older workers' participation rates are lower, the increase in the share of old workers by itself pushes down the aggregate participation rate.

To determine what is really happening, we need to look at age-group weighted effects on the participation rate. I asked reader Tim Wallace to explore that idea in a set of charts.

Note: Both Doug Short and Tim Wallace have better charting skills than I have. I frequently ask them for charts of this nature to explore ideas that I have. 

Here's the specific question I asked: What age groups account for the decline in labor force?

For this question, we need to look at all groups, not just 50 and older. As customary, Wallace uses not-seasonally adjusted data.

For all of the following charts, Wallace compares November of 2013 to November in prior years.



As with the earlier chart, the decline in age group 50-54 relative to 55-64 is suspicious but inconclusive. We need stats on the population itself to draw valid conclusions.

Percentage Makeup of Civilian Non-Institutional Population by Age Group



Note the recent rise in the 65+ population demographic, the rise in 55-64 demographic, the decline in the 25-49 group, and the flattening of the 50-54 age group.

All of these are as expected. Now let's hone in on what has transpired since 2010.

Participation Rates by Age Group 2010-2013



By multiplying the age group population % by the age group participation rate, we can calculate contributions to the overall participation rate. The next chart does that.



Focus on Percentages is Wrong

The impact on the overall participation rate of the 55-64 age group only increased from 9.8% to 10.2%. Similarly, the impact on the overall participation rate of the 65+ age group only increased from 2.9% to 3.3%.

Does that prove or disprove the Fed thesis?

The answer is neither. Looking at participation rates (percentages) in isolation cannot address the question.

Because of demographic shifts, we need to look at the hard numbers, specifically the growth (or decline) in labor force relative to the growth (or decline) in population.

I asked Wallace to do just that. Here are the results.

Overall Labor Force and Civilian Population by Age Group



The above chart does answer the question as to whether or not the Fed thesis is reasonable. However, it's not easy to see. A chart of relative growth will be easier to understand.

Change in Labor Force and Population From Previous Year



In the above chart, the change in labor force and the change in population in hard numbers (not percentage terms) are side-by-side.

Consider the numbers for 2012 for age group 65+: The population rose by 2,349,000 but the labor force only rose by 621,000.

What happened to the rest? Retirement?

To make it even easier to see, please consider this final chart, with subtractions made.

Delta of Change in Labor Force to Change in Population



The decline in labor force relative to the growth in population is heavily concentrated in the 65 and older demographic.

This is proof that the analysis by the Fed is indeed reasonable.

A rally in the stock market is one possible reason. Also, there may be a lot of teachers, police officers, and firefighters who just put in their required number of years to be eligible to collect their pensions.

Implications

Regardless of why, the number of retirees collecting pensions or social security is increasing at a rapid pace while the number of those contributing to social security is declining.

Moreover, those retiring are in general making more money than new workers coming into the system.

The already stressed pension and social security programs will be coming under increased stress. We all knew this would happen sometime, and it started in a big way about 1.5 to 2 years ago.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
Publicat de 1 la 23:21 0 comentarii

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics

This Guy Dressing Up Like Local Realtors

Posted: 17 Dec 2013 02:58 PM PST

This guy spent the last month dressing up like local realtors and pasting himself over their bench ads..












Via: phildesignart.com

The Ultimate Girls Fail Compilation 2013 [Video]

Posted: 16 Dec 2013 08:16 PM PST

Break.com put together a compilation of the best girl-themed fails of the year.



Publicat de 1 la 19:33 0 comentarii

This is important:

The White House Tuesday, December 17, 2013
 

This is important:

Since October 1st, more than 1.2 million Americans are poised to gain coverage under Obamacare -- and more are picking plans every day.

Now, the deadline is coming up to get coverage from the Marketplace in time for the new year. You have until December 23rd to select a plan in order for your health insurance to start by January 1st.

So if you're reading this email and you need health coverage, go to HealthCare.gov right now. Shop for a plan that meets your needs, compare prices, and get covered:

 

Need health insurance? Go to HealthCare.gov now.

  

Already have coverage? Most everyone knows at least one person who would benefit from coverage. Make sure they know how to sign up -- it's never been more important.

Visit WhiteHouse.gov/Get-Covered and do your part to spread the word:

 

Already have health insurance? Go to WH.gov/Get-Covered.

  

While the website's launch had its share of problems, the reality is there have been huge improvements. Today, Americans all around the country are signing up for coverage. And millions more are already getting expanded benefits under the health reform law.

But there are still millions of Americans who need to sign up and enroll.

So one more time:

If you don't have coverage, go to HealthCare.gov to find a plan that meets your needs.

If you do have coverage, take a minute to pass on the message to someone you know.

Stay Connected

 

This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com
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Publicat de 1 la 16:04 0 comentarii

Photo: A Meeting in the Oval

Here's What's Happening Here at the White House
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Featured

Photo: A Meeting in the Oval

President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden meet with U.S. Trade Representative Mike Froman and Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker in the Oval Office

President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden meet with U.S. Trade Representative Mike Froman and Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker in the Oval Office, Dec. 16, 2013. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)
 
 
  Top Stories

The First Lady Reads “’Twas the Night Before Christmas” at the Children's National Medical Center

Yesterday, First Lady Michelle Obama visited Children's National Medical Center with Bo and Sunny where she read "'Twas the Night Before Christmas" to a group of children.

READ MORE

Announcing "Of the People: Live from the White House" with Discovery Education

We’re always looking for new ways to open the White House and engage with citizens online. And that's why we’re excited to kick off "Of the People: Live from the White House," a virtual field trip series with Discovery Education that’s designed to offer middle and high school students unique access to the White House.

READ MORE

"Weekly Address: Marking the One-Year Anniversary of the Tragic Shooting in Newtown, Connecticut"

In his weekly address, President Obama honors the memory of the 26 innocent children and educators who were taken from us a year ago in Newtown, Connecticut.

READ MORE

 
 
 
  Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Time (ET)

10:00 AM: The President and the Vice President receive the Presidential Daily Briefing

10:45 AM: The President and the Vice President meet with CEOs

12:30 PM: The President and the Vice President meet for lunch

12:30 PM: Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney WATCH LIVE

4:15 PM: The President and the Vice President meet with Secretary of Defense Hagel

 

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All About You: Results of the Moz Blog Survey

All About You: Results of the Moz Blog Survey

All About You: Results of the Moz Blog Survey

Posted: 16 Dec 2013 03:09 PM PST

Posted by Trevor-Klein

Last month, 766 of our readers took a few minutes to tell us what they thought of the Moz Blog. We were absolutely blown away by the quality of the feedback we got, and we're excited to share what we learned with all of you.

You told us you're squeezed for time in a constantly changing "need-it-yesterday" world. You told us you're sick of "ultimate guides," and that you're (for the most part) already well versed in the basics of SEO, and are craving more advanced tips, tricks, and tactics. You told us that content marketing and data analysis are two areas where you could use some help.

We hear you.

The rest of what you told us can be found below, and we'll be incorporating these takeaways into our planning for the Moz Blog over the coming months. The entire set of results is available as a Google Spreadsheetâ€"if you're interested, please feel free to make a copy. If you learn anything beyond what we show here, please let us know!

Your job titles

One of the things we've wondered as we've made the transition from SEOmoz to Moz is whether our audience would begin to include a greater number of people from outside the world of SEO. As Rand explained so well, we can't just be SEOs anymore. So, we did what anyone would doâ€"we tossed all of your job titles into a word cloud.

Two things are immediately obvious:

  • SEO is still a huge part of what you all do, as it's the largest word in this cloud
  • Given how large the word "marketing" is, there are also quite a few of you whose jobs likely include many other aspects, as well.

It'd be interesting to see how this cloud changed over time. Would those two words be similar in size six months from now? A year? Time will tell, but for now, our best course of action might be the T-shaped approach. Lots of advanced depth in SEO, combined with enough depth in other areas to make sure everyone's up to speed with the changes in the industry.

Your experience

Along the same lines, as our audience continues to expand and the Beginner's Guide to SEO continues to be our most successful piece of content, we wanted to know how experienced our readers were in their lines of work. As it turns out, we have a pretty good spread:

Your level of SEO expertise

It's no secret that Moz's background revolved around SEO, and so it comes as no surprise that most of our readers consider their SEO skills to be pretty advanced. On a scale of 1-5, 86% of respondents rated their SEO expertise a 3 or better, and 14% labeled themselves "industry experts." Given people's natural inclination to choose responses toward the middle of a scale like this (central tendency bias), we might even have more industry experts than these results show.

Still, there are a significant number of readers who are relatively new to SEO, so one of our challenges is to find the right line between basic and advanced SEO content.

One of the ideas we're considering is implementing more of what I call "pre-read transparency," making it easier to get a feel for what a post is about and whether it's relevant for you before you even start reading it. If done well, this could save our readers valuable time and make it easier to find additional reading that's relevant to your work. (If you've got ideas on ways to make that happen, we'd love to hear about them in the comments!)

How much SEO?

At the same time, 45% of respondents said they spend less than half of their time doing SEO work. More than 20% said they spend less than a fifth of their time on SEO. There are some blurry lines here, for sure (how much of your day-to-day would you need to spend on SEO before you considered yourself an expert?), but our read is that even the people who have the most expertise in SEO are finding themselves doing more and more work outside of that area.

Your greatest challenges

This was one of the more telling sets of responses we received. Our primary goal with the Moz Blog is to help you all become better marketers, and in order to do that, we need to know what you all need help with. This was a text-entry question; people could write as much or as little about their challenges as they pleased. We noted recurring issues in the responses, and tallied every distinct mention of each of those issues.

Some issues might seem like they overlap, but we think this paints a pretty clear picture of what our readers are struggling with in today's world of marketing:

Challenge # mentions
1. Changing industry 93
2. Content marketing 70
3. Clients/customers misunderstand my work 67
4. Time management 52
5. Politics and buy-in 43
6. Too much to learn and keep track of 40
7. Link building and maintenance 39
8. Measurement and analysis 38
9. Google and the algorithm 32
10. Limited budget/resources 29
11. Ranking 28
12. Managing people and relationships 24
13. Clients/customers are difficult 23
14. Social media integration and management 23
15. Strategy and goals 22
16. Reporting 21
17. Branding 17
18. Understanding SEO 16
19. Conversion rate 16
20. Competition 14

We all work in a rapidly changing industry, and even the experts are constantly having to learn new techniques. One of our primary jobs involves not only informing you of those changes, but also offering recommendations on how you might adapt your work. We'll continue to seek out the best advice in that respect.

Content marketing is obviously an essential field for today's marketers, and there are relatively few good resources for people looking to improve their own content skills. We hope to bring you more posts to fill that niche and help you level-up.

There were also quite a few responses having to do with workplace productivity: time management, effective communication, and finding ways to convey the value of our work to clients and customers. These are areas we haven't covered much on the Moz Blog, but are vitally important for effective marketers. Look for more of these posts in the future.

Your reading style

What we were really trying to get at here was how long we felt comfortable making posts (we've had a few doozies in our time). Given that nearly two-thirds of our readers try to go for the entire post (and yet only have so much time on their hands), we're likely to try and keep things compendious so we don't scare folks away from even starting in.

This also suggests that we shouldn't worry quite so much about the inverted pyramid, since people generally tend to keep reading anyway, though in our minds that doesn't hold a candle to Strunk and White's age-old advice to "omit needless words." =)

The devices you prefer

This was a shocker for us. One of the items that has remained on our back burner for some time is creating a more mobile-friendly responsive site, especially for the blog, and we wanted to know how much of a priority it was for all of you. With mobile devices now accounting for 28% of all web traffic, we figured this was a high priority for our readership. Boy, were we wrong:

More than 92% of respondents listed "laptop/desktop" as at least one of their preferred devices; fewer than 8% left the "laptop/desktop" option unchecked.

One of the most interesting comments on the survey's blog post alluded to the idea that this could simply be a result of what people are used to, not what their preferences actually are, since many blogs (our own included) still lack responsive design. That's something we'll absolutely work on when we can, but at the same time, these numbers are so wildly skewed toward reading on computers that we feel pretty safe taking care of other priorities first.

Relevancy to your work

This might be more of a baseline to work from than a real metric of how we're already doing, but we were certainly pleased to see this curve leaning to the right:

We're planning on diving a little deeper into the data for this one, too. In a sense, the data behind this graph can provide us with a rudimentary content audit. We can look at the people who landed toward the top of this graph, and figure we're providing plenty of content that's relevant to their lines of work. We can also look at the people at the bottom of this graph and know we're missing the mark for them.

As a whole, though, it's certainly encouraging to see that most people find the majority of the posts on the Moz Blog to be pretty relevant. We'll likely conduct another (perhaps shorter) survey in a year or so in order to measure progress against data like this.

Accessibility

One debate we have frequently in the Mozplex is whether our posts are appropriately accessible. In other words, are people bored because they're not learning anything they don't already know? Or, are they confused because our posts go right over their heads?

Our customer mentor, Matt Roney, has done some fantastic work with Moz Analytics subscribers, and has found out that many people seem to be confused by the complexity of web marketing, and thereby of our tools. That made us wonder if folks were generally confused by our posts, as well.

As it turns out, most of our audience finds the balance to be about right:

One interesting note is that there are significantly more people who think posts are too basic than folks who think they're too advanced, confounding our expectation based on Matt's interactions.

Also interesting is the degree to which people find posts too basic or advanced. We asked respondents who chose "too basic" to rate just how basic they were on a scale of 1-5, and asked a similar question for people who chose "too advanced." The average score for people who thought it was too basic was 2.7â€"right at the middle of the scaleâ€"and the average score for people who thought it was too advanced was 3.6â€"much higher on the scale. This implies that our beginner-level readers are more lost than our advanced readers are bored.

There's a great solution to this, which is to offer help to beginner-level readers on the more advanced posts. Perhaps this comes in the form of tool tips with explanations and definitions of more advanced concepts. Maybe it's a couple of links in the sidebar that lead to relevant "background content," such as a chapter in the Beginner's Guide to SEO. Whatever the case, we're likely to lean just a little in the advanced direction while also offering beginners a way to catch up quickly.

Room for improvement

We asked you all an open-ended question about what you'd like to see different about the Moz Blog. We coded and tallied mentions of each request, and we have to say we're pretty happy with the #1 response:

Feedback # mentions
1. Nothing 103
2. More tutorials, how-tos, and action-oriented posts 44
3. More case studies 39
4. More video/multimedia content 32
5. More advanced posts 23
6. Need to branch out from SEO 20
7. Needs to be more accessible to beginners/non-SEOs 17
8. Needs better categorization/navigation 16
9. Post more frequently 15
10. Shorter posts 14
11. Posts should be more data-driven/scientific 13
12. Posts need more variety 13
13. Needs mobile-friendly/responsive design 12
14. More from Rand 11
15. Needs more varied pool of authors 11

There's a lot of other great feedback in here, too, including a confirmation of your desire to see more tutorials, case studies, and action-oriented posts that keep you on top of your game. There was also an echo of the call for more advanced posts.

More than 30 people requested an increase in posts that include videos, with many of those expressing an appreciation for Whiteboard Friday. While we're pretty happy with just one Whiteboard post each week, there's something to be said for finding other ways to present video content, as there are a great many examples of successful educational videos. We've even begun offering our own educational videos to subscribers through Moz Academy. This is an area ripe for further exploration.

Oh, and for the 11 folks who asked for more from Rand, you may get your wish before long. =)

Topics

This was one of the most interesting sets of results for us. We asked about which topics you'd like to learn more about, hoping to gain some direct insight into the most valuable things we could post about on the blog. Respondents could select as many of these options as they liked. As you might guess, advanced SEO came out on top, with nearly 3/4 of responses selecting that option.

If we didn't already have enough evidence that content marketing was at the forefront of people's minds, this speaks for itself:

We were also interested to see how high data analysis ranked on this list, although with the volume of data we all deal with on a regular basis, there's no real surprise. The ability to transform information into knowledge and knowledge into wisdom is vital for today's marketers, and we'll do everything we can to equip you all for the task.

We'll use these responses (among other things) as a guide for the distribution of topics we post on the blog. It won't be an exact scienceâ€"you won't see exactly 73 posts out of every 100 covering advanced SEOâ€"but you can expect we'll post more about advanced SEO than we do about paid search marketing or community management, and so forth.

We'll also work hard to draw connections between these categories, realizing that it's impossible to silo them all away from one another. Social media is heavily connected to branding, for example, and video marketing is simply a specific type of content marketing. We'll use what we know about your day-to-day work as a foundation, and show you what you need to know about the other areas in this list.

Types of posts

Make no mistake, we will never title any blog post "The Ultimate Guide to ___" again. =)

This is no typo or data entry errorâ€"out of the 749 people who answered this question, not a single one indicated they wanted to see more "ultimate guides" on the blog.

We've talked about this quite a bit in the office, and our theory is that it is always a false promise. There's no ultimate guide to anything (in any sense of the word). There are really good guides, and there are some that many people will consider the best availableâ€"but if someone else put in enough effort, they could certainly make a better guide.

One of the many (many) lessons I've learned from Cyrus Shepard is that headlines are a promise to the readers. If what's behind the headline doesn't live up to that promise, you've lied about what you have, and are breaking the hard-earned trust you've built with them over time.

We also think that while some "ultimate guides" are impressive (and are widely shared as a result), they're usually far too long to actually read through right away. Given the well established lack of time that folks in our industry have, these posts often get pocketed indefinitely, undermining their true value.

That isn't the only useful part of these responses, thoughâ€"it's quite clear that the most valuable posts we can give you all are those that contain truly actionable content. It isn't about inspiration as much as it is about helping you stay ahead of industry changes, and showing you step-by-step how to be more effective and efficient with your work. You can expect to see more tutorials and case studies as time goes on.

Now we go to work. Thanks to all of you, we have a great sense for what kinds of content we should seek out in order to provide the most value for you.

Here's a run-down of some of our biggest takeaways:

  • While our readers are increasingly focusing on other areas of marketing, the foundation of their work still lies in SEO, and our content needs to reflect that specialization. We should think of our readers as "T-shaped," focusing on advanced depth in SEO while drawing connections to areas like content, social, branding, and others.
  • Our readers are challenged by a constantly changing industry in which they're required to continually learn (and evangelize) new techniques to retain their expertise. They are frustrated by a lack of time and resources, difficulty in communicating and reporting their work to both colleagues and customers, and a need for up-to-date best practices in many areasâ€"especially content marketing and link building.
  • Our readers prefer to consume blog posts on desktops or laptops, and if they choose to read a post, most of them try to get all the way through it.
  • Our readers generally have an advanced knowledge of SEO, but there are many who are relatively new to the field and feel lost when reading our more advanced posts.
  • There is a great demand for action-oriented posts among our readers, including tutorials and case studies. This demand vastly overshadows the demand for more generalized overviews and higher-level strategies.

Given all of that, here are some things you might expect to see on the Moz Blog as we move forward:

  1. More actionable posts, including tutorials and case studies
  2. A tendency toward more advanced posts related to SEO, along with more basic posts that connect SEO to other areas of inbound
  3. More help for beginners in getting the background necessary to understand the more advanced posts
  4. High quality posts to fill the content marketing niche
  5. More posts on data analysis, competitive research, social media, workplace productivity, and other topics toward the top of the list above
  6. More "pre-read transparency," offering details to help you determine a post's relevancy to you before you click
Overall: Content that's more relevant and valuable to you and your work. That's our goal, and we want to keep hearing from you. Please feel free to send us your thoughts at any time (editor@moz.com), whether about something we posted, topic suggestions, or anything else related to the blog.

We'd also love to see your analysis of this data: Did we miss anything? Get something wrong? Let us know in the comments below.

Thanks to everyone who gave their time for this survey; it was immensely insightful for us Mozzers!


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