Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Black Friday Becomes Black Thursday; Thanksgiving Just Another Shopping Day; More Temporary Part-Time Jobs
- Amazon Offers Sunday Delivery Via US Post Office; Google, Six Other Companies Offer Same-Day Delivery; Who Is the Winner?
- Japanese Households With Zero Savings Hits 31%, Most Since 1963; Sexless Youth; Currency Crisis Awaits
| Posted: 11 Nov 2013 04:38 PM PST The competition to see which store can open the earliest on "Black Friday" is essentially moot. Why? As increasing numbers of real stores are opening on Thanksgiving, simply to keep up with online stores open for shopping every day. MarketWatch reports Real reason stores are opening on Thanksgiving It used to be the only consumption that took place on Thanksgiving happened around the dinner table. But retailers are changing the game. Target (TGT) announced Monday that it will open at 8 p.m. on Thanksgiving, Best Buy (BBY) announced Friday that it will open at 6 p.m., and Kmart (SHLD) announced last week that it will open at 6 a.m. on Thanksgiving and not close until 11 p.m. on Black Friday. They're some of the dozens of other retailers, including Macy's (M) and Walmart (WMT) that over the past few years have chosen to open on Thanksgiving. The message is clear: Turkey Day is now just another shopping day.Cyber Monday In case you re not familiar with the term Cyber Monday, Wikipedia explains: Cyber Monday is a marketing term for the Monday after Thanksgiving in the United States. The term "Cyber Monday" was created by marketing companies to persuade people to shop online. The term made its debut on November 28, 2005 in a Shop.org press release entitled "'Cyber Monday Quickly Becoming One of the Biggest Online Shopping Days of the Year".Black Friday Becomes Black Thursday Macy's says the doors will be unlocked "in response to interest from customers who prefer to start their shopping early." Target said the move to open its doors at 8 p.m. on Thanksgiving gives its shoppers "easier-than ever access to Black Friday doorbuster deals." More Temporary Part-Time Jobs As Black Friday morphs into Black Thursday, one can only wonder where the silliness stops. In the meantime, expanded store hours means more seasonal, low-wage, part-time jobs, inflating the monthly jobs reports. Hooray! Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Posted: 11 Nov 2013 09:59 AM PST The US post office was contemplating stopping Saturday delivery to reduce costs. Instead, the post office has gone the other way, at least for packages. The LA Times reports U.S. Postal Service to deliver Amazon packages on Sundays. Giant online retailer Amazon.com Inc. is turning up the heat on rivals this holiday season and beyond under a new deal with the U.S. Postal Service for delivering packages on Sundays.Why Go to the Mall? Competition favors those with a vast array of merchandise and a way to deliver it quickly. Amazon and Walmart are in that class. If you know what you want, or find what you want online, why go to the mall? The answer seems to be tradition, or perhaps just to get out of the house. And for some, the walk in the mall is about the only exercise they get. Same-Day Delivery Options Why wait two days when you can get it in one? SEJ reports Google and 6 Other Same-Day Delivery Services. If you live in the Bay Area, you might be relaxing at home in your pajamas ordering all sorts of goodies and waiting until Google drops it off within the same day. If you haven't heard, the tech giant is making life all that more instantly gratifying by expanding its same-day delivery service. Google is by no means the only company offering this kind of service, but it's Google, so this makes it kind of a big deal.Is Same-Day Delivery What People Want? In most cases it's not same-day delivery that people want, but rather, free-delivery and lower prices. According to a study conducted by Boston Consulting Group, only 9% of the 1,500 U.S. consumers surveyed "cited same-day delivery as a top factor that would improve their online shopping experience, while 74% cited free delivery and 50% cited lower prices." With the exception of some city dwellers with a little extra cash, same-day service isn't a priority.Who Is the Winner? Competition is here, on multiple levels. Companies that offer the fastest deliveries at the lowest cost will have a huge advantage over their competition. The winner is the consumer who gets faster service at cheaper prices. The loser is big-box retailers with huge shopping areas with little traffic. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Posted: 11 Nov 2013 08:45 AM PST Japanese citizens are starting to complain Abenomics is not helping them. Here are a few reasons:
As a direct result of Abenomics, Japanese Households Without Savings Climb to Most Since '63 The share of Japanese households with no financial assets rose to a record as falling incomes forced people to dig into their savings, highlighting the potential for widening disparities under Abenomics.Tax Hike Deal On August 31, I wrote Japan Seeks to Hike Taxes then Waste Money on Stimulus to Make Up for Decline in Spending; Currency Crisis Awaits When Japan last hiked the sales tax from 3 percent to 5 percent in 1997, consumer spending tumbled by 13 percent in the quarter after the higher tax went into effect. That was followed by a recession. In October, Abe got his tax hike. It's the first tax increase since 1997. Sales taxes will rise from 5% to 8%, a tax rate increase of 60%. To ease the blow of the tax hikes, Abe will announce a fiscal stimulus package in December. The deal is not a good one for the average Japanese citizen: Tax rates will go up 3 percentage points, but Abe will announce a spending package in December to waste some of the increased collection on useless projects. Consumers would have been far better off with no tax hike, falling prices, and stable (-0.3%) wages. Japan's Sexless Youth In case you missed it, please consider my October 22, 2013 report on Japan's Sexless Youth Here are some stats according to the Japan Family Planning Association (JFPA)
This is what I wrote in response ... Fighting Demographics Record Service in Interest on National Debt On August 27, I pondered Japan Finance Minister Seeks Record Debt Servicing on Interest on National Debt; What's Next? Abe Tells Companies to Ignore Customers Inquiring minds may also wish to consider my July 19 article Japan Tells Firms "Stop Sitting on Cash", Ignore the Lack of Customers That headline is correct. Abe wants companies to spend money whether or not they have customers. I asked a very simple question in response "What happens to prices when more products are produced in the face of falling or static demand?" The Abenomics story goes on and on. "Virtuous Circle" of Inflation In November, Abe was promoting the "virtuous circle" of inflation while simultaneously whining that wages did not keep up. Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe managed to get prices to rise. He did that with his policy to destroy the Yen even though Japan is heavily dependent on foreign oil and food imports. Interestingly, Abe is not quite pleased with the results. Abe now complains that wages are not keeping up with prices. He wants a wage-price spiral on top of it all. For more details, please see Prime Minister Abe Calls for Wage-Price Spiral to Create "Virtuous Circle"; Shame Shame Things Can Only Get Worse Wages declining .3% annually is hardly a problem if prices are falling as much. Instead, enter Abenomics. Abe wants 2% inflation, more fiscal stimulus, higher taxes, rising wages. He also wants the impossible: Inflation to bail out the government and savers alike, while interest rates remain near 0%. Crisis Awaits Expect the percentage of households with no savings to soar. Hiking taxes is about the silliest thing a country hoping to escape deflation can possibly do. Telling businesses to produce goods that no one wants to buy is perhaps even sillier. Economic illiterates sing the praises of Abenomics because the stock market and prices are rising. But attitudes, "sexless youth", increasing households with zero percent savings, rising debt levels, and falling real wages tell a far different story. Without a doubt, a currency crisis awaits Japan. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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