Central Perk: 24 oct. 2015

sâmbătă, 24 octombrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Sweden's Migration Projection Doubles in Three Months (And It Won't Stop There); No Cash, Just Vouchers (Hah!)

Posted: 24 Oct 2015 05:14 PM PDT

Sweden is feeling migration strain. In the last three months, Sweden's Migrant Projection Doubled.

This was easily foreseeable by bloggers like me, Dave Stockman, Acting Man, Zero Hedge etc. Yet, somehow government leaders failed to see this coming.

Sweden will receive as many as 190,000 refugees this year, according to official estimates, more than double the projected number envisaged just three months ago, placing unprecedented strains on the country's immigration services as politicians struggle to agree a way forward.

"It's as if we have a land border with Turkey," said Anders Danielsson, head of the Migration Board, as he announced the figures on Thursday.

"The current refugee situation is unprecedented in modern times, and the housing situation is critical."

At the end of July, the Migration Board said the rate of new arrivals was falling and it expected a total of just 74,000 in 2015. The previous peak number of asylum seekers in Sweden was in 1992, when 84,000 fled the Balkan wars.

The numbers are "not sustainable for Sweden", said migration minister Morgan Johansson, adding that EU countries must share asylum seekers.

With a total population of under 10m, Sweden is receiving by far the highest number of refugees in Europe as a proportion of its population, equivalent to about 6m people flooding into the US, and third only to Germany and Hungary in absolute terms.

Officials said they expected the country to be short of 25,000 to 40,000 beds by the end of the year. This week the Migration Board opened a temporary camp of 350 heated tents to house refugees, as temperatures dropped towards freezing.

Asked how many might be illegally in the country, Mr Danielsson said: "We have no idea, we have no border."

"The reliability of our forecasts is low at present," said Merjem Maslo for the Migration Board. "When the Syrian conflict started we could pretty well determine how many asylum seekers who would find their way here, but our forecast can no longer be based on sound judgment."

Migration Math

Inquiring minds may be interested in the math.

The July expectation was 74,000. The new and surely underestimated expectation is now 190,000. That's 2.57 times the estimate of three months ago.

And that's closer to tripling than doubling in actuality.

Sweden Requests EU Help

The situation is now so bad, Sweden to Request EU's Help Handling Asylum-Seekers.

Sweden will request to join the EU's controversial refugee relocation scheme in a move that could see up to 54,000 asylum-seekers arriving in Sweden shared out among other EU member states.

The Scandinavian country is expected to receive up to 190,000 asylum applications this year as one of the most popular destinations for people fleeing countries such as Syria.

Stockholm is one of many governments across Europe scrambling to keep control of the refugee crisis and temper an anti-immigration backlash. In Berlin, the German government rushed through tougher asylum laws in an attempt to stem the huge inflows of refugees and reassure the public and its EU partners that Germany is in control of its borders.

Key elements of the legislation will now come into force on Saturday, eight days earlier than previously planned and just ahead of Sunday's European leaders' emergency summit on the western Balkans refugee transit route.

The new measures are aimed at accelerating the removal of failed asylum-seekers, including most applicants from the west Balkan states, which are seen by Berlin as countries to which migrants can safely be

Peter Altmaier, Chancellor Angela Merkel's chief of staff, said Berlin wanted to deal "better and more quickly" with failed asylum-seekers.

German officials will also start replacing cash handouts for refugees in reception centres with vouchers for food and essential purchases. The move will make would-be refugees think twice before trying to seek asylum in Germany — particularly if they come from the western Balkans, according to the officials.

No Cash, Just Vouchers (Hah!)

The idea that vouchers for free food, free housing, and free services in lieu of free cash will "make would-be refugees think twice" is downright idiotic.

When you give people (who have no food and no shelter), free money, what the hell will they primarily spend it on other than food and shelter?

Vouchers for food and shelter, accompanied by free medical services is about 90% as good as free cash in my estimation.

On the Verge

Via Google translation, A Swedish newspaper reports We are On the Verge.

Trelleborg emits cries for help and is one of several municipalities that are pushed hard by an increasingly powerful stream of refugees. On Revingehed, erected tents are temporary asylum accommodation. "We are at the limit of our capacity of reception in Sweden," said prime minister Stefan Löfven.

In the past month has over 2,000 unaccompanied children came to the city. Representatives of the municipality sent out the distress call that they can not handle the situation.

The Prime Minister praised the municipal contribution and explained that the government wants to help. Among other things, they decided to raise the flat rate for each individual who comes here and also for those children to be in school.

The economy is important, but we also have to look at whether there are rules that can be simplified to make it easier for people who work with this every day.

Amazing Stupidity

The prime minister moans about thousands of migrant children dumped on the streets by their parents, yet decided to raise payments and subsidies for migrant parents and kids.

Wow!

Word of Thanks

I received the Swedish newspaper article from a reader who lives in Sweden. I received other emails from other Swedish readers. And I receive emails from all over the globe.

I deeply appreciate these emails. There is no way I would have found such stories on my own.

Given that I write article 3-4 times a day, there is no way I can use everything that readers send. I typically respond to emails, except to those who routinely send me multiple ideas every day, but I do appreciate all the incoming ideas.

Thanks.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Third Party Logistics: Will Amazon Disrupt UPS and Uber or Will Uber Disrupt Amazon, FedEx, and UPS?

Posted: 24 Oct 2015 08:10 AM PDT

Last week Uber rolled out on-demand delivery in New York, Chicago, and San Francisco.

Is that the wave of the future?

Or Is Amazon About to Disrupt Delivery Services by Taking UPS and FedEx Head On?

Colin Sebastian at RW Baird published a note yesterday highlighting the opportunity for Amazon to begin to offer third-party logistics services in a similar way that it offers Web Services. The analyst believes that this could be a $5 billion opportunity for Amazon even if it only captures 1% marketshare in the various segments of the industry.

Transportation and logistics is the next massive market opportunity for Amazon but rather than developing it as another internal business unit, this may be spun out.

Amazon currently operates 167 distribution facilities around the world, totaling more than 100 million sq. ft., and continues to grow.

In North America, Amazon operates 92 facilities (including local sortation centers).

Amazon's third-party Marketplace is a good example which leverages the scale of Amazon's e-commerce traffic and supporting fulfillment infrastructure.

Another Massive Market for Amazon

Colin Sebastian says Yet Another Massive Market on the Horizon

Amazon is not finished disrupting industries.

Just as Amazon leverages infrastructure behind the core retail business to grow AWS and Marketplace, there is evidence the company may extend its increasingly complex and technology-centric logistics and delivery platform as a third-party offering.

Market Caps

Uber - Not Public - Valued at $70 Billion after raising still more cash.
FedEx - FDX - $45 Billion - PE: 42.02
United Parcel Service - UPS - $95 billion - PE: 24.9
Amazon - AMZN - $280 billion - PE (Negative earnings)

Any of those valuations seem ridiculous?

For more on Uber, please see UberRUSH: Uber's On-Demand Delivery Service Rolls Out in New York, Chicago, and San Francisco

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Seth's Blog : Selling like Steve

Selling like Steve

Have you thought about the fact that just about every time Steve Jobs appeared in public, he was selling us something?

And yet few rolled their eyes and said, "oh, here comes another sales pitch."

Jobs sold us expensive, high margin hardware that we knew would eventually became obsolete, and yet people lined up to hear the pitch. How come?

I think it's because he was saying:

"Here, I made this. It might be worth talking about."

Inherent in this statement is the flip side, "it might not work."

And in almost every case, he was right. That it might be worth talking about, and that it might not work.

In almost every case, skeptics pounced. People discussed his work.

Sometimes he was early, but he was usually interesting. That's a slot that's available to more people than ever before, regardless of industry or audience.

Average stuff for average people is getting ever more difficult to sell. If that's all you've got, get something else.