joi, 4 octombrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


"Pigeon" Tax Protest Goes Viral in France

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 01:44 PM PDT

I received an interesting email today from Andrea, who is from Italy but now lives in France.

The email is about "pigeons", a movement started by French entrepreneurs in protest of president Francois Hollande's tax policies. The "pigeon" movement has gone viral on Twitter.

Andrea writes ...
Hello Mish

After the recently announced budget plan of Hollande-Ayrault governement with its huge round of tax increases, an on-line mouvement of start-up businessman has been very rapidly spreading out and going viral in France. This mouvement in just a few days has gone mainstream and become very popular: the government is even reconsidering some measures to cool down this protest.

The mouvement is called the "Pigeon".

The reason of the protest is very well explained by Pierre Chappaz (a "serial" start-up entrepreneur), and very well reported by Vincent Benard (an excellent libertarian economist and blogger) in his blog (in French) Objectif Liberté Esprit d'entreprise: "Hollande m'a tuer".


The point is: this wave of taxes will kill any economic motivation to create a company. The main sentence (quoted by Pierre Chappaz)

"I do not know a single startup founder who accept the idea that creating a company, in which it will invest all his savings and years of effort often without a salary, must then give to the State 60.5 % of gain when he sells his company if he succeeds. It should be known that 9 out of 10 startups fail, and in this case nobody will refund the founder. Then, on the 39.5% that he will be left with, it will pay 1 to 2% per year, every year for the ISF ("Wealth Tax"). And when he dies, the state will take 45% of what remains."

This is sad because France has been the cradle of some very nice companies in high-tech and Internet domains, many of them rapidly become leaders in France or even in Europe.

Best regards,
Andrea
Here is an English Translation of Objective Freedom: Entrepreneurship "Hollande Kill Me"

Pigeon Web Protest on Twitter

Bloomberg reports 'Pigeon' Entrepreneurs Take Hollande Tax Protest to Web
French entrepreneurs have a new mascot -- the pigeon.

Using the bird's role in French slang as the "sucker," owners of startups have formed a group dubbed "Les Pigeons" to show that President Francois Hollande's new taxes make them the fall guys for France's economic woes. They are protesting the almost doubling of the tax rate on capital gains generated from selling a business in Hollande's budget for 2013.

The group has gathered more than 34,000 supporters in less than six days on Facebook Inc.'s social network and spurred more than 3,600 posts under the "#geonpi" tag on Twitter, with the founders of Iliad SA (ILD), Vente-Privee and Meetic SA (MEET) throwing in their voices of support.

"The government thinks France's entrepreneurs are pigeons," the movement's initiators wrote on a dedicated Facebook page. "Anti-economic policies are crushing the entrepreneurial spirit and exposing France to a big risk."

Some business figures criticized Hollande's tax move by voicing support for the "Les Pigeons" movement on Facebook. Xavier Niel -- who created Internet-service company Iliad and started selling mobile-phone packages this year under the brand name Free -- was one of them.

France's small and medium businesses group CGPME said it has started a petition-signing project against the 2013 budget.

Pierre Chappaz, the Frenchman who founded comparative shopping site Kelkoo and sold it to Yahoo! Inc. for 475 million euros in 2004, wrote on his blog.

"I won't be part of the protest since I've already flown away," wrote Chappaz, who lives in Switzerland. "I do wish good luck to the birds that are still fighting in Paris."
As stated previously in French Economy Implodes ...

The French economy is clearly imploding and Hollande has not even fully followed up on his economically insane promise regarding layoffs, but he has pressured companies to not do so, and he has also massively raised taxes (a splendidly stupid thing to do in recession).

You reap what you sow, and the implosion of France is now underway. Odds of France making its budget projections are in my estimation close to zero, but time will tell.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/


Hyperinflation Hits Iran; Monthly 70% Inflation Rate; Reflections on Economic Warfare

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 08:59 AM PDT

The oil embargo against Iran has worked, assuming one defines "work" as a destruction of the Iranian riall which has fallen 33% in a week, 57% in three months and 75% in a year vs. the US dollar.

On Wednesday, the Tehran bazaar closed in turmoil and police used teargas and batons on demonstrators protesting the currency crisis.

Please consider Iran currency crisis sparks Tehran street clashes
Hundreds of demonstrators in the Iranian capital clashed with riot police on Wednesday, during protests against the crisis over the country's currency. Police used batons and teargas to try to disperse the crowds.

The day after President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad appealed to the market to restore calm, the Grand Bazaar – the heartbeat of Tehran's economy – went on strike, with various businesses shutting down and owners gathering in scattered groups chanting anti-government slogans in reaction to the plummeting value of the rial, which has hit an all-time low this week.

"Mahmoud [Ahmadinejad] the traitor … leave politics," shouted some protesters, according to witnesses who spoke to the Guardian. Other slogans were "Leave Syria alone, instead think of us," said opposition website Kaleme.com.

"The Bazaaris shouted 'Allahu Akbar' [God is great] as they closed down their shops in the morning," said a witness. "It's impossible to do business in the current situation." Amateur videos posted on YouTube which appeared to have been taken from Wednesday's protests, showed demonstrators encouraging Bazaaris to close down shops in solidarity. Security forces were soon sent to quell the protests.

"They used teargas to disperse demonstrators in Ferdowsi Street and also blocked the streets close to the protests in order to prevent people joining them," said another witness, who asked to remain anonymous. "Some shop windows in that area have been smashed and dustbins set on fire." A number of demonstrators had been arrested, according to Kaleme.

On Wednesday, many foreign exchange dealers and bureaux across the country refused to trade dollars and some currency-monitoring websites refused to announce exchange rates.
Hillary Clinton's Hand-Washing Maneuver

The hand-washing maneuver of the day goes to Hillary Clinton who stated "They have made their own government decisions - having nothing to do with the sanctions - that have had an impact on the economic conditions inside of the country."

Iran has undoubtedly made many poor economic decisions (but so has every other country on the planet). It is extremely disingenuous to suggest this has "nothing to do with sanctions".

Monthly 70% Inflation Rate

Steve Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University, has also been following the Iranian currency crisis. He pinged me with these thoughts yesterday.
Hello Mish

For months, I have been following the collapse of the Iranian rial, tracking black-market exchange-rate data from foreign-exchange bazaars in Tehran. Using the most recent data, I now estimate that Iran is experiencing a monthly inflation rate of nearly 70%, indicating that hyperinflation has struck in Iran.

Cordially,
Steve
Here is a chart and commentary from his blog Hyperinflation Has Arrived In Iran
Since the U.S. and E.U. first enacted sanctions against Iran, in 2010, the value of the Iranian rial (IRR) has plummeted, imposing untold misery on the Iranian people. When a currency collapses, you can be certain that other economic metrics are moving in a negative direction, too. Indeed, using new data from Iran's foreign-exchange black market, I estimate that Iran's monthly inflation rate has reached 69.6%. With a monthly inflation rate this high (over 50%), Iran is undoubtedly experiencing hyperinflation.

When President Obama signed the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act, in July 2010, the official Iranian rial-U.S. dollar exchange rate was very close to the black-market rate. But, as the accompanying chart shows, the official and black-market rates have increasingly diverged since July 2010. This decline began to accelerate last month, when Iranians witnessed a dramatic 9.65% drop in the value of the rial, over the course of a single weekend (8-10 September 2012). The free-fall has continued since then. On 2 October 2012, the black-market exchange rate reached 35,000 IRR/USD – a rate which reflects a 65% decline in the rial, relative to the U.S. dollar.
Iranian Rial Black Market Exchange Rates



click in chart for sharper image

Reflections on Economic Warfare

The US has waged economic war on Iran and that is taking a huge toll. Better economic war than the military war Mitt Romney seems hellbent on starting, but I support neither.

The last thing the US and the world needs is another senseless war in the Mideast.

Once again note that hyperinflation is essentially a political event. Weimar Germany was triggered by war reparations, Zimbabwe by confiscation of property accompanied by capital flight (including human capital), and Iran by US and European embargoes (a clear act of war).

Those suggesting hyperinflation will hit the US are barking up the wrong tree. For further discussion including a chart of 27 hyperinflation episodes and their causes, please see Hyperinflation Nonsense in Multiple Places

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/


Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Surfing the Web in 1998

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 02:33 PM PDT

Take a trip down memory lane with this hilarious depiction of a typical user experience of computers and the internet in 1998.























































Via Buzzfeed


Riches to Rags: Musicians That Lost it All [Infographic]

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 11:27 AM PDT


OK so we have all seen the Rags to Riches stories. Well we thought we would turn it on its head and see if anyone has gone from Riches to Rags. The rock n role lifestyle is notorious with people making a lot and then blowing it all. I guess it does not matter if you're rich or if your poor managing your money and living within your means is pretty important.

Click on Image to Enlarge. Infographic: Riches to Rags
Via Payday Loans.co.uk


Why Big Content Is Worth the Risk

Why Big Content Is Worth the Risk


Why Big Content Is Worth the Risk

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 07:56 PM PDT

Posted by Dr. Pete

We all want the low-hanging fruit, but let’s be honest – the low-hanging fruit is rotten, bruised, and covered with the grubby fingerprints of all the other spoiled brats pawing at it. There’s a time for easy wins, but easy only gets you so far. Sadly, I see too many SEOs putting days or weeks of effort into crafting the perfect low-value scheme, when that same time could’ve easily gone into content that has real staying power and drives sales.

I’m obsessed with “Big Content” lately – resources that go beyond our narrow bins of blog posts, videos, and infographics. I’m going to show you how that obsession is paying off, and why building real content is easier than you think.

I. What Is Big Content?

First, let me apologize for introducing another important-sounding but vague and probably useless term. I’m only calling it “Big Content” because the examples I’m thinking of defy any single definition. I want this to be actionable, so let me try to pin down what I’m taking about…

1. Big Content Takes Effort

If you want easy, then stop reading (this article is pretty long, and that sandwich won’t eat itself). The #1 attribute of big content is that it takes time and effort – it doesn’t have to be expensive, but you have to invest something into it (and, as they say, time is money). The problem with easy is that what’s easy for you is easy for everyone else, too. If anyone can do it, a tactic quickly loses impact. You can’t build a lasting competitive advantage with easy.

Here’s what most people don’t get, though – once you get good at big, big gets easier. You learn how to be efficient, tap outside resources, and manage risks. The more you create big content, the more you see opportunities that weren’t there before. You have to put in the effort and make the mistakes – if you’re stuck on easy, big will always be out of your reach.

2. Big Content Breaks Molds

I don’t think “big” content fits any particular format, but what I have noticed is that the examples that fit my idea of big all seem to break the format mold – they’re either hybrids or somehow more than just the sum of their parts. I think examples speak louder than explanations here, so let’s look at a couple.

Here’s a great concept put together by SimplyBusiness  - a WordPress Guide for Small Business. At first glance, you might think it’s “just” a flowchart:

Big Content Sample - Flowchart

Click on “NO” under any section, though, and you get a custom resource to answer the question. Some of these are links out, but others are videos created specifically for this project:

Big Content Sample - Flowchart + Video

Flowchart + links + video = something bigger. Here’s another recent example by the folks at Seer Interactive, an interactive content piece called “How Do They Make Money”:

Big Content Example - Infographic

At first glance, it looks like an infographic, but click on any company logo and you’ll see the real content in action:

Big Content Example - Infographic + Data

Again, if you want to over-simplify, it’s just icons + pop-ups, but the whole effect is a useful and professional piece that really engages people. Both of these examples also clearly have a lot of research and effort behind them.

3. Big Content Can Be Small

Big content needs big concepts, but it doesn’t have to be lengthy. One of my first introductions to big content was a 1-page PDF I created back in February of 2009, a 25-point usability checklist.  What was big about it? Well, even though it was only a single page, it represented not only years of client experience, but 30-40 hours of work just to create the list itself. I distilled a ton of usability texts and much longer checklists and combined that with my own experiences to create something that I really felt represented a lot of knowledge in a small space.

This was also my introduction to just how successful big content can be. The piece not only attracted traffic and links, but it ended up in books and classes and introduced me to dozens of respected members of my industry. What’s more, this content had real staying power – even though I wrote it over 3-1/2 years ago and have barely touched my consultancy blog this year, here are the 2012 traffic stats for just that one piece:

Checklist Stats - 56.898 pageviews

While this content took a lot of up-front effort, I’ve spent almost no time on it in 2012, and yet it drove almost 50K unique pageviews and over half the entrances to my site. It’s an investment that’s paid itself off a hundred times over.

II. Benefits of Big Content

Now that you have some idea of what I mean by “big content”, let’s dive right into the tangible benefits. Sure, big content drives traffic and links, but so does any successful content. I want you to understand what sets big apart, and why it’s more than just quantity…

1. Big Content Has Longevity

People come back to big content, as my experience with the usability checklist illustrates. If you put enough effort and research into a piece and make it truly unique, it’s almost naturally “evergreen”, even long after publication. There’s a step even beyond evergreen, though – big content has a way of creating audience or at least being in the right place at the right time when that audience is ready for it.

Let me give you an example. Another big content piece I’ve been deeply involved in is the Google Algorithm History here on SEOmoz – not only is it a big piece in scope, but we’ve actively updated it since launch, making it somewhat unique in the realm of historical posts. I intended it to be a “living” document.

While the Algo History has been popular, it started out a lot like any other piece of content – it had an initial spike that then settled into a steady hum. This is the first two months:

Algo History traffic - first two months

While the initial spike was respectable (just over 9K pageviews), this is a pretty typical pattern for our blog posts – a big opening day that levels off in a few days. Admittedly, the Algo History did keep on producing traffic, but the rest of 2011 was a steady trickle (in the realm of 200-400 pageviews/day). Overall 2011 traffic to the page was about 63K unique pageviews.

This pattern continued for the first couple of months of 2012 – there was some slow build-up, but nothing earth-shaking. Then, along came April:

Algo History - Penguin spike and 2012

On April 25th, traffic to the page spiked. Recognize that date? It’s the day after Penguin, and the start of a newfound interest in the algorithm. Remarkably, that interest has stayed steady, even months after the initial Penguin update, and the page has topped 200K unique pageviews for the first 9 months of 2012.

Long story short, the Algo History isn’t just “evergreen” – it’s sprouted an entire forest. Big content is positioned to be ready when your industry changes – it has the trust and authority to capitalize on the moment, whenever that moment arrives.

2. Big Content Is A Barrier to Entry

Remember what I said about easy not giving you a competitive advantage? Easy is easy to copy, but big builds barriers. The Algo History wasn’t the first piece of its kind, so we knew we had to do it bigger and better – once we were done, we raised the bar for everyone after us. I’m not conceited enough to think that no one can ever write about the topic again or that someone won’t do it better someday, but expectations are higher now, and that makes the competition’s job tougher. In search, these barriers even become self-building – big content that gets links and social mentions climbs the rankings, getting more links, and on and on. It builds traffic, it builds brand, and it builds walls that people who are stuck on easy will never be able to climb.

3. Big Content Drives Big Ideas

Easy is an assembly line process – it creates more of the same and is ultimately a numbers game. Big fosters innovation and can change the process. When we were researching the Algo History, I was left with a nagging feeling – we just didn’t know much about the Google algorithm. So, I started thinking about ways we could measure how much Google changes day-to-day, and months later MozCast was born:

MozCast

That was just the beginning, though. MozCast wasn’t just big content – it was an engine to generate and analyze data that very few people had. In August, I scored an SEOmoz first (for me) – we scooped the big news sites and spotted the 7-result SERP launch. Not only that, we were able to show how widespread those SERPs were – my post and data were picked up by SEL, SER, and even The Guardian. Since then, MozCast data has helped power a handful of other popular posts on the SEOmoz blog

Sorry, I’m not trying to rewrite my resume here, but I want to hammer in a point. What started with one piece of big content (the Algo History) turned into a new tool (and public website), a new data set, a handful of content, and an entire new direction for me. I had actually built content that generated data that generated new content. Put simply, my content was creating content. That’s pretty amazing, if I do say so myself.

III. Managing Risks & Costs

So, I know what you’re thinking – sure, you guys just got $18M worth of funding. What about the rest of us? This is the #1 myth I want to dispel – big content takes effort, but it doesn’t have to cost a fortune, and there are ways to manage the risks. Here are three tactics that have made all the difference for me and made every piece of big content I’ve built possible…

1. Build a Minimum Viable Product (MVP)

Sometimes, you just don’t know if something is going to work until you try it. MozCast started out as a concept, a couple of equations, and a 50-keyword crawler (built in PHP and MySQL). I built the back-end myself – including the current version – and I only got the team involved when I had proven to myself and them that the data was interesting. This kept our risk and investment very low, and when I finally had something worth building, the team was happy to get involved.

There’s always risk, of course, but the idea of an MVP goes far beyond just products. A big blog post can start with an outline, a video can start with a storyboard, an infographic can start with a back-of-the-napkin sketch. Build enough that you can get the idea in front of people and in motion, and see if it takes on a life of its own. If it does, you’ve got something. If not, you aren’t out much time and money.

2. Don’t Bet the Farm on One Idea

Once you’re comfortable with Minimum Viable Products, you start to get more comfortable with failure, because failing is no longer catastrophic. A lot of my content is built on data, for example, and so I almost always have 2-3 experiments going on. In other words, I’m collecting data for 2-3 ideas. About two out of three of those either don’t work or just aren’t interesting. So what? The one that does work is usually more than enough to make up for the failures. The real risk isn’t that one of my ideas will fail – the real risk is only having one idea in play.

3. Find Your Big Evangelists

One of the tricks of big content is that someone has to really own it – it’s going to take time, organization, and follow-through. You don’t need a big agency, though, or the industry’s foremost expert – you just need somehow who’s motivated.

One of the first big content pieces that really caught my eye was an epic guide to linkbait created by Distilled. It’s a wealth of information, including original and curated content that clearly took a lot of effort. Here’s the kicker, though – this project was created during a two-week internship by Ed Fry, who was only 16 years old at the time. Obviously, it was a team effort, and I’m not trying to say that Ed is just your typical intern – he’s a bright guy with a bright future – but he’s not a seasoned industry veteran and he doesn’t have an office on Madison Avenue. What he had was the motivation to see a big project through, and Distilled was smart enough to tap into that passion. Sometimes, “big” is just about finding someone with the drive to follow through.

Now, It’s Your Turn

I hope I’ve convinced at least a few of you to stop thinking small. The truth is that, until you produce something big, you won’t really understand the benefits and the momentum that come out of it. I’m just now beginning to see how the Algo History has opened up all new areas for me and for the content I’ll create next. At the same time, I’ve got systems running daily collecting new data to build tomorrow’s content. My only regret is not investing in big ideas sooner, because the interest is compounding every day.

 


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Facebook's New Custom Audiences: What They Are and How You Can Use Them - Part 1

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 03:58 AM PDT

Posted by Justin_Vanning

If you're currently advertising on Facebook, you've probably heard the announcement about their new Custom Audience feature. The announcement was a pretty big deal and had most marketers salivating over the new targeting possibilities. 

In case you missed it, here's a brief overview of the Custom Audiences feature and tips on how you can use it to your advantage.  

What Are Facebook Custom Audiences?

Let's say you have a current email list of all of your existing customers. You've introduced a new product that you think would be valuable to those customers, and you'd love to be able to run Facebook ads that show only to those customers. Up to this point, you didn't have a way to do this.

Now, with Facebook Custom Audiences, you now can upload your customer email list (or a list of phone numbers or Facebook User ID's) for Facebook to hash the data against its users to find matches. Pretty cool, eh?

Odds are that if you have 1,000 customer emails, they won't all be currently on Facebook. However, many of your customers might have used the same email when they bought from you as they did when (if) they signed up for Facebook. You'll probably be surprised at how many people from your customer list have the same email that match back to their Facebook account. To test this new feature out, we uploaded some of our customer lists and were seeing anywhere from 50-70% match rates. Not too shabby.

The other beautiful thing about Custom Audiences is that not only do you have a new, custom audience that you've created from your own customer data, but you can layer on any of the other Facebook Advertising targeting options on top of it. For instance, let's say you upload the emails of your current customers and found 70% of them on Facebook. Now you have a Custom Audience of these folks. You can now say that you only want to run a Facebook ad to the people in this list who include the filters of living in Seattle and not liking your fan page yet. The options for targeted marketing are pretty limitless.

Some of you might have concerns about privacy. It's important to note that Facebook will hash (or encrypt) all of the email addresses, phone numbers, or Facebook user ID's that you upload before matching it to Facebook profiles. Here's Facebook's own explanation of this:

"Facebook calculates the hash of the email addresses and phone numbers that people have given us and stores these hashes with the corresponding person. When an advertiser imports their hashed audience list into power editor, we compare it with our hashes to find all the matching user IDs. If an advertiser imports a hashed email address that we don't have, it won't match anything. Facebook won't know the original email address or phone number because it was hashed before it was uploaded."

How Can I Use Custom Audiences?

I was pretty excited after reading the Custom Audiences announcement, and I started brainstorming the countless ways to use them. Here's what I've come up with so far:

  • Drive Facebook Likes: This one is pretty obvious. Now that you can mash your offline lists to Facebook profiles, you can easily set up a Custom Audience of your current customers or people who've signed up for one of your email lists (basically anyone who's had a brand impression with your company) and start serving them ads to try and get them to like your FB brand page. You'll want to make sure you select the option to only show ads to the people in this Custom Audience who don't already like your page. 
  • Drive Sales/Conversions: If you're a business that collects email addresses for lead gen purposes, why not upload those as a Custom Audience and then serve Facebook ads to that group? For example: if you sell products and know that your customers tend to buy product A before buying product B, upload the list of emails of all customers who've bought product A and then serve them ads promoting product B. Maybe you're a B2B business and 20% of your customers are in your mid-tier product plan. You can serve those customers ads trying to get them to upgrade to the next product tier. Maybe you're an online florist and Valentine's Day is approaching. Why not upload an email list of all your customers and then use Facebook targeting to focus on only the customers who are in relationships or married, and serve that group a Valentine's Day promotion? The possibilities are endless.
  • Drive Newsletter Signups: If your company has a newsletter that you send out on a regular basis and you can pull an email list of all customers who haven't signed up for the newsletter yet, upload that group as your Custom Audience. You can then serve ads promoting your newsletter to those customers. 

The potential targeting options with Custom Audiences is pretty vast, so I'm sure there are plenty of opportunities I missed. Now that we've discussed what the Custom Audiences are and some ways to use them, let's quickly talk about how to set them up.

How Do I Set Up Custom Audiences?

In order to use Facebook's Custom Audience feature, you'll have to use a 3rd party vendor  (SalesForce, AdParlor, Alchemy Social, GraphEffect, Kenshoo, Nanigans, Social Moov, and Optimal) or the Facebook Power Editor. Check out the link to learn about what the Power Editor is and how to download and start using it.

Once you have it downloaded, you'll want to click on the Custom Audiences tab on the top nav and then click "create audience".

A pop-up will load asking for you to upload your Custom Audience file. Make sure your file is in CSV or TXT format, name it, and then upload it to Facebook. 

 

Facebook will now mash your audience list with their user profiles to see how many match. Remember, the number of people in your original list will not match the number that Facebook returns for the Custom Audience size for two main reasons: some people will not be active users of Facebook, and some will not use the same email address or phone number that they gave your company as they do on their Facebook profile. 

Once the audience has finished uploading in Facebook, you can click it and then click "create ad using audience" to set up an ad or you can click the Custom Audience tab from the ad editor. 

What's Next?

The new Custom Audience feature is pretty exciting, and I'm launching some tests here at SEOmoz to see how it performs for us. We'll be testing 3 things to start:

  • Driving Facebook likes
  • Driving conversions (free trial signups)
  • Driving newsletter signups 

I'll collect data over the next couple of weeks and write a follow-up post to show how they performed for us. 

I'd also love to hear from you all to see what you think about this new Custom Audience feature. Are you currently using it, or do you plan on using it in the future? If so, how will you plan on using it? Add your thoughts in the comments section below and we'll continue the discussion. 

 


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